Eugene

ECM 00Z OP looks an outlier to me synoptically, GFS 12Z looks closer to the mark, though cloud cover could be a factor mid week onwards with a cloudy humid airmass moving in.

Its about time we had a really severe February cold wise, wouldn't mind a near average winter upto February then a near record breaking cold one to finish it off, just to show the doubters how cold February really can be.

Well it was pretty much spot on today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn0617.png http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgicurrentgraph?CEL=C&ART=karte&LANG=en&JJ=2011&MM=07&TT=22&TIME=1430&TYP=temperatur&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&TIME=1311360560

Having had a quick look at GFS 12Z it doesnt look as good as previous GFS OP runs, still looking settled by mid next week but taking longer to get there and then no FI heat to get excited over.

GFS 12Z is excellent for warm weather fans, looks like the azores high will be coming into play big time with the jet becoming sluggish and pushed northwards, this could be the beginning of a very warm and dry August, the current unsettled spell has hardly delivered any rain to my area so drought could become a concern to farmers.

I've managed to escape most of the rain with only some in the morning, overcast but dry, 18C and feeling humid.

Feels very sticky today, still waiting for all this cool weather, to be honest this is sitting in the garden in a deck chair weather, its quite oppressive indoors.

HP ridging in as early as thursday, turning into a very decent summer here in the midlands.

Yes im fed up of all the let down unsettled spells, its always feels very warm and humid with hardly any rain, inside modern houses which have good insulation it feels like an oven in the past week, yes i am completely fed up of them roll on cool and wet summers if we'll ever get them again like in the mid 80's

Wow some crazy members on here, 23C. 24C, 25C has been reached on almost everyday in the past week as the average July max is 22C that it not cold at all then you get people saying we'll have summer in December when average temps are ALOT cooler than now, where do these people spring up from.

We got agreement from UKMO 00Z, probably one of the most consistent runs and NOGAPS is similar too, looks like another overhyped unsettled spell, already by wednesday ridging is moving towards us and LP moving away northwards, cant see much rain at all now from this spell as the bout of heavy rain wednesday morning has been completely downgraded now.

Loads of warmth being pumped northwards on GFS 00Z, notice the lack of any cool air just pockets near the top of the chart, last week of July first week of August is typically the warmest part of the year. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3122.png

I didn't think much of it either, more like an idiots guide to the british weather, good to see people in the background enjoying the lovely warm summer like weather though that some on here think hasnt arrived yet.

Sorry but i dont agree, the weather is warm and settled this week and there are signs of a pressure build out to our west next week which could block out the LP systems from the west after that stalling low fills out, GFS 00Z OP offers plenty of hope for a warm settled spell, that stalling low looks like it could have humid air mixed in so with light winds it could feel very pleasant indeed with places missing out on showers completely, this summer for eastern, southern and central areas has been quite dry with above average sunshine, nothing as bad as some say.

Well as a mild winter usually means a wet one too your saying millions of the british public want a wet winter where they cant go out, sorry but no, more likely they want a winter that is HP dominated with hardly any snow and as HP in winter generally equals quite cold weather then thats what they would prefer. Just because the public dont want excessive heat in summer doesnt mean they want a wet summer either.

No it hasnt UKMO faxes have it dry all week even at T+84 hrs the front is out west, the weekend is when it was looking like going downhill and its still that case, still feel apart from the odd poor day it will still remain nice and warm, even with LP this summer here its felt warm when the sun has come out and with some cooler air getting into the mix sunshine is more likely Looks like getting humid again by next monday on GFS 00Z and warming up as the run progresses with humid air over the UK for a prolonged period of time.

Well said terminal, i mean come on if you live in the peak district what do you expect, hot summers like in London, its bound to be much colder due to being in the north midlands and with elevation, even here in the south midlands if you live high up the weather will be cooler, rural areas especially valleys here are like a different world at night where it easily gets down to 0C even in the summer in clear calm nights with near average 850's but just a mile away here on the edge of a big town its much milder.

Yes william you have it spot on there, charts may not look great but when it comes to the actual weather outside it turns out nice and feeling very warm with just one poor day here and there, the week ahead looks very nice until saturday now just on friday it was looking unsettled thursday, GFS 00Z even though one of the warmest runs on the ensembles doesnt look too bad at all.

Friday here in warwickshire was bad admittedly but apart from the occasional day here and there its felt very warm indeed like yesterday. The doom and gloom is just way over the top as usual like in winter when temps are just above 0C by day and they moan there is no cold on the horizon, normal people out and about are dressed like the season they are in ie past few weeks shorts and sitting in gardens and in winter wrapped up well not out in garden with coats, gloves an scarfs when they need to go out even in January that everyone said wasnt cold <LOL.

The drought goes on here, hardly any rain from this unsettled spell just a few heavy showers yesterday but nothing much today, looks dry and warm after tomorrows batch of rain for almost a week or so.

Just one light shower today, sunny most of the day , as ever any cool and wet weather fails to arrive for warwickshire, everyone here is acting like its full blown summer with lots of people out in shorts and in gardens.

Well GFS 00Z is keen to bring some more very warm and humid weather for early next week , looks like it could be very similar to the very warm and very humid spell early this week so temps could reach mid 20's C again in parts and it will feel very humid and sultry not sure why that isnt high summer, 30C+ heat is very rare.

Yes maybe he does but i certainly don't in the west midlands and he's completely right the last two weekends were very warm(even hot on a few days) and dry as a bone.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif - Cant see it being as sultry as today with a cool ish northerly, you want a very slack southerly flow like today for proper barmy summer warmth not cool northerly followed by toppling ridge.

Its very strange people harp on about FI finally delivering summer when today actually gives temps higher than in most of GFS 12Z FI until near the end.