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Eugene

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    Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by DiagonalRedLine
    Sorry, somehow hit the edit button by mistake

    So after a brief stormy interlude it looks 99% certain the UK will slide into winter proper through this weekend and beyond.

    Given that details are impossible due to the complex nature of the pattern I will concentrate more on the basic set up.

    The original Easterly with toppling Atlantic ridge joining with heights to NE has pretty much been scrapped in favour of a cold trough and low pressure repeatedly sliding across the UK.

    Cold or very cold with a second Atlantic ridge and any East NE flow likely the result of sinking low pressure in this period.

    Snow could be widespread at times and fall just about anywhere but any snow forecast will be dependent on the behaviour and character of the sliders, how far West, how full, S or SE track etc but what we do know is there will very likely be one or two bouts of more widespread ppn which will almost certainly fall as sleet or snow even to low levels although the SW and far W could see more of a wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow but details...

     

    The cold looks likely to last to at least 22/23rd Jan whereafter the pattern will be determined by what happens with the Second Atlantic ridge.

    We could get a repeat pattern setting up which would give the UK a rare prolonged cold snowy spell or it could topple favorably giving an Easterly as was originally modelled for upcoming spell or it could flatten into Europe with the jet over the top bringing back more typical zonal conditions. The last option is highly favoured in ensemble output at the moment but but as others have pointed out, let's get the cold in and worry about FI later. Also we have seen that proper cold spells have a tendancy to get stretched out further than models predict.

     

    I think we will all be grateful and happy with a 6-8 day 6-8 week cold spell anyway given how many times this Winter has been written off by overly frustrated coldies.

     

    The cold zonal leading into this weekend has been a bit disappointing for myself though I have seen snow fall at least. The upcomming spell promises whole different kettle of fish.

    Happy days!

     

     

    Good post that needs to be put here in this new model thread, just corrected what most of us want. :)

    • Like 18

    Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    So hands up if you thought GFS op and GFSp would show an Easterly within the 10 day time-frame tonight.  :cold:

     

    Anyone?  :unknw:

     

    Even NAVGEM showing an interest.

     

    navgemnh-0-144.png?12-23

     

    It must be right! :D

     

     

    Well I did post in my status update that all we need is high pressure to rise to our NE to give southern areas a higher chance of snow than this week and I did post the GEM model which was the only model going for a pressure rise to our NE before dropping it but now other models are starting to bring that idea back.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    How did I forecast snow being quite possible between the 13th and 15th ten days ago then?

    Snow has been looking like a possibility for a long time in a cold zonal flow but yeah charts change - they do tend to be much better with zonal condtions than blocking though so the 8 to 10 day charts won't be far wrong IMO.

     

     

    On January 2nd people were posting charts for Jan 10th showing a stronger euro high just to our south saying it's a long way to cold, yet what happened is many in northern england saw snowfall on Jan 10th/11th with the potential for more tuesday and later in the week.

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    And that later part seems to tie in with Ian's earlier post.

    HP centred to south or south west eventually by early Feb?

    Still, this week we should see an attempt at winter, for the South.

     

     

    He said flow direction hard to determine with likely transition to freezing fog / frost which sounds wintry to me, whose to say the anticyclone won't retrogress in February, that is when the atlantic typically dies down.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A few comments earlier rubbished those gfs snow charts i posted but it's interesting to note the updated met office 3-5 day has mentioned snow to low ground on Tuesday. And where the trough lines occur there could be a surprising amount of snow in a short space of time. Things are really cranking up now, we have a wintry Tuesday, a stormy midweek and then another cold blast later in the week..this is more than I could have hoped for considering how poor the models were looking a week ago.

     

    Fantastic point Frosty, the models 7/10 days ago were looking dreadful for the upcoming week with a mild zonal flow dominating, charts change all the time >7 days ahead so best not to take much notice of them unless they show a repeat of Jan 1987 of course. :D

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Good to see some growing broad agreement now by late Jan between EC products, UKMO-GLOSEA and now NCEP modelling for prospects of a more settled, anticyclonic flavour to finish the month and possibly on into early Feb. Flow direction hard to call eventually (perhaps transition into fog/freezing fog/frost territory before a shift to anticyclonic W/SW'ly as per EC Monthly?). Either way, growing consensus on losing the deep cyclonicity... eventually!

     

    Pleasant by day,cold at night almost Springlike anticyclonic February your favoured option fergie?

    • Like 2

    The Midlands - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Is this the reward for cold temperatures? A few measly drizzle/light sleety showers? No thanks Ill have my 16c from last night back please! Must say it was quite warm sleeping last night and quite humid. 

     

     

    Our reward is seeing less of your trolling. :D

    Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12Z ENS Northern England 2M temps..

     

    graphe6_1000___-2.4528301886792434_54.93

     

    They look pretty darn cold to me, and snow risk - 100% over the next day or two, haven't seen that very often, if at all over the last 2 years or so.

     

    Also note the GFS op was very much on the mild side in FI, so i would discard that for now.

     

     

    Yes looks pretty cold in the midlands too with many days below 5C and when you add the wind chill factor it's going to feel freezing, enjoyed this winter so far.

    • Like 3
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