Eugene

Ummm i think most people are discussing the models if they show cold we can't hide from that fact if they were showing very mild then we would be discussing it in there, you can only discuss in model discussion what the models are showing and that is a return to cold and maybe snowfall. In a strong cold easterly with limited sunshine it wouldn't melt away from the coasts even in early to mid March, ice days are still possible in southern UK and GFS 06Z for next saturday would produce one. I find it strange people obsessing over spring warmth in late February into early March as its very rare this early in the season, abit like wanting proper cold in early September. So it's not a case of are people ready for spring but is the weather ready for it.

I hope you aren't implying the runs are poor for cold, the ensembles are as good as you will get for early to mid March especially for southern UK, very impressive ensembles here with not that much rainfall. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Heavy drifting snow for eastern, southern and central areas, very limited sunshine. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

Yes the origin of airmass is important but i will say you are wrong over southeasterlies because of the shortest sea track possible for an easterly to reach us they mostly bring clearer colder air to southeastern districts that might suffer from cloud cover off the north sea when winds are north of east. GFS 06Z brings very low dewpoints for next friday, it would produce lots of sunshine for lots of areas not the cloud cover you think southeasterlies do. Nowhere in that metoffice update does it agree with him regarding cloud amounts in comparision between northeasterlies or southeasterlies, weatheronline are going for sunshine to be at a premium too so they aren't expecting lots of sunshine for all.

LOL when i saw this i instantly thought this must be an old post because todays models don't show anything of the kind then i saw the time and date Next week is looking below average and possibily wintry in parts with lots of sunshine not guaranteed at all especially for southern, eastern and central areas.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=203&FILE=awa&DAY=20100226 　 　 　Weatheronline's latest forecast is expecting sunshine to be at a premium next week, i would agree though it should be ok in the north and west, southeastern and eastern areas might have to suffer the cold murk or snow :lol:

We are very close to snow tonight and on sunday in the midlands though maybe not quite close enough apart from on higher ground http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=karte&LANG=en&JJ=2010&MM=02&TT=26&TIME=1130&TYP=temperatur&KEY=MID&TIME=1267183551 Widespread temps of 4C/5C, i don't think the wales mild thread will last that long :lol:

Excellend trends on GFS 06Z ensembles it must be said, some show the risk of cold easterlies and snowfall for southern areas from mid next week, not sure why the doom to be honest, with HP blocking to our north you always have the chance of wintry weather. http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-144.png?6 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-19-1-240.png?6 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-240.png?6 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-4-1-252.png?6 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-4-1-228.png?6

A better run for NSSC with more of a clear southeasterly feed by late next week, check out dewpoints for later next week , it would be give lovely widespread sunny skies, we need a southeasterly for more sun esp in the southeast instead of a dull cold northeasterly/easterly feed, nice retrogression to greenland in FI too, great run http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18010.png Still a risk of more cloud cover in the far southeast at times for next week though if we pull winds more north of east than south of east and we wont know until nearer the time which way it`ll go.

Cloudy windy and damp this morning feels cold too(4C), i dont think much of this spring like spell to be honest it just gives slightly above average temps the last few days here with lots of cloud, didnt exactly feel warm either.

Not sure if you would see much sunshine in kent NSSC if some of the runs are correct, with a northeasterly or easterly dull cold feed. Next week is March and the averages are climbing every week now so not sure about average temps and it will feel cold anyway in a continental feed. Some nice northwestward retrogression on the control and other ensemble members.

We don't need massive icebergs for colder winters we've just had two in a row. Will the winter ever end in north scotland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png Even in the midlands it looks like going on after a brief milder spell.

Looks like a cold end to a wonderful winter with some wintry precip possible on the back edge later on sunday as we pull down some cold uppers, a nice crisp start to March too http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9010.png Further ahead very good agreement on HP taking over lying just to our north with a continental feed in southern UK where we go from there is what we`ll find out in the next week

I find it unbelievable the way some are talking in here like winter 2009/10 has been disappointing for cold but we are going to record three below average months in a row and the coldest winter since 1979. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100110.gif - Easterlies have come off.

Yes they most definately can, the cold trend that started in Mid December continues after a brief milder cloudy spell. Heavy snow for south midlands southwards drifting in strong easterly winds with temps around 0C by this time next week if GFS 06Z is anything to go by

Excellent models/ensembles this morning showing a drying and cooling trend, hopefully all the mud in the countryside can harden up and dry up, terrible conditions currently for country walkers with loads of mud and massive puddles everywhere Snow and cold give lovely picturesque landscapes for photographers, this weather gives dull muddy miserable conditions, not exactly photogenic I agree with Mr data gales and loads of rain is good for nobody at least snow is picturesque hardens the ground/mud in the countryside for walkers and you can enjoy with lots of crisp sunshine.

Yes thats the stereotypical yes but in reality people tell me they like cold crisp sunny weather in winter and detest the mild overcast damp weather we usually get, in summer they like pleasant warmth and sunny too, its completely false to say 95% want warmth in the winter as that usually means mild and wet, looks like a cooling trend on the ensembles with a strong signal for cold HP after this brief wet spell.

Very blocked GFS 12Z FI run, we could be in for another quiet and cold month though of course sunshine makes it feel pleasant in March, all in all trends are looking very good for March and CC might not be far off the mark afterall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png - GFS 12Z FI looking very promising for a cold easterly.

All snow here today and feeling very cold and i`m not that far from stratford upon avon and tomorrow will be snow too so not sure why you think it`ll be sleet at best, it won't turn to rain until wednesday.

Looks like i may see 10C on wednesday, if it does it would be the first time since mid Dec Only brief though before turning colder again.

I`m wondering if we could be in for an easterly dominated March this year, ECMWF 00Z is hinting at it and so are some GFS 00Z ensemble runs. :lol: It'd been nice to get an easterly dominated March as we haven't had one for a while and easterlies are still cold enough in March. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

A slight dusting of snow here and feeling very cold, temperature currently 0C and snowing lightly :lol: So great to wake up to wintry scenes so often this winter, beats mild temperatures and heavy rain anyday.

Looks like more possible snowfall for midlands northwards for friday night and sunday http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1621.png

Don't be too hard on yourself Ian, snow is difficult to forecast at the best of times :o