jemtom
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Posts posted by jemtom
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quite correct, it is VERY unusual for the beeb to predict that far out but that is exactly what was said.
He's probably reading his warning letter as we speak.... :lol:
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I cannot believe that he would show a chart for ten days time!
The models are struggling to agree on what the weather will be in ten minutes time at the moment!
Maybe he thought it was Sunday and he was doing the Countryfile Forecast.
No one said he showed a chart, he didn't, he showed a graphic. Moreover I'm not going to say he mentioned 10 days either of he didn't. That's what was shown and that's what was said!
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The only thing that is slightley disapointing thus far today is the bbc forcast 13:30pm which before they started the proper forcast showed us next week a big high pressure slap bang over the whole off the uk. now my current read on that must be that they seem very confident over that which is good news if you like colder weather with sunshine or bad news if its snow your after the latter my preferd option. If things goes wrong it will sadley for us what many members faill to understand and do not think is that we are a tiny island and have to get the perfect synario to produce snow.
He also finished that pre forecast piece by saying thats how things look in 10 days time. That's a very strange line for a BBC forecaster to come out with, they rarely allude to 5 days hence, let alone 10. Either TS was flying by the seat of his pants and feeling the need to be a bit rebellious, or the MO are extremely confident of the HP evolution.
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No offence meant Jemtom,but nearly all your posts appear to my eyes as somewhat negative although all the disappointments we have had are probably the reason-I know you are a cold lover but just once in a while give some credit to Fred who along with roger has imo done pretty well.Rightly or wrongly (over the past few years) siding on the side of mild winning has always been the form horse.
None taken Rollo - my posts are not negative IMO, they are realistic. However in this forum any realism is often misconstrued as negativity, see Pauls dramas in yesterdays model thread for confimation of this fact. Within your last sentance you have perhaps inadvertantly summed up much of the overall problem. Coldies seem to think that mild is the default form horse, so if people post the fact they see mild in the outputs, they are doing it just because it gives them a better chance of being right. I suppose in all honesty it's human nature to want to be right, I don't mind admitting that I do, so maybe, just maybe we've cracked the conundrum...
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Jemtom
The 17th date is nowt to do with the LRF and was a rash post which I quantified on many occasions almost immediately after. you read the LRF for jan the only dates mentioned are 10-12 where LP will push north to bring milder temps...and it did on cue. I have just made posts along the way to try and increase detail where I can and a setup I have alluded to for sometimr is blocking to our NE to ridge acros to Iceland and Greenland. Re turning springlike that is something you have been predicting since November????.
Yes lattr half of Jan has not returned to very cold pattern as I imagined but the southerly jet is in place but not the northern blocking so it has failed to materialise on time. This is an LRF with no updates or changes, however, events have compelled me to provide an update re Feb as the pattern is 'developing' and I have miscalculated the strength of the peak energy period of this NM, Apogee and S Declination and the detail IMO needs expanding which i will try and do.Now feed me to the wolves!!
BFTP
Feed me to the Rollo you mean mate, he seems more fired up than any wolf....
Will look forward to seeing your Feb update and your apology....soz I meant apogee For what it's worth I still l think we'll be looking a fair way into February before any proper northern blocking gets established, perhaps well into the 2nd week in fact, but then again I'm not in my right mind according to some....
Good luck with it.
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Jemtom
I have to say you are being rather unfair. RJS and Blasts forecast is second to none so far and considering when the forecast was made it is remarkable in its accuracy. For January they predicted a mild spell mid month turning back to cold and then very cold. We have had our mild spell and are now turning cold with very cold being predicted by many. Simply because a specific date is not met does not make it an incorrect call. Roger's and Blasts forecast needs to be judged on the winter as a whole and not cherry picked. I'm sure that when we do look back there maybe some head scratching going on to understand how well the forecast has stood up.
jonboy - wholeheartedly disagree. That has not happened and as I allued to there is no point in issuing any kind of forecast without a set timeframe to accompany it.
Their early Winter forecasts were good as I've previously conceded, but Dec was forecast to be a colder than average month in many quarters, including the MO. The 1st third of Jan was cold/very cold, then along came the milder spell, but what we have not seen since is the forecasted return to cold/very cold weather. That is a fact, it's not open to question or arguement. Now whether we get a return to colder conditions in Feb remains to be seen, clearly there are some encouraging signs that we will, but in all fairness with respect to Blast and Roger those who live by the sword die by the sword. In other words if you want fetting and praising when your forecasts go right, you have also to accept the inevitable critisism when they go wrong, that as you suggest is not "being rather unfair", it's in fact completely the opposite.
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200 years' ago, and that would have been by far the best option. But, when a farmer informed me, in all sencerity, that droughts are caused be military jets 'cutting the clouds in half' I realized that maybe the METO is a better bet nowadays?
That's odd, because I was told by someone (and of resonable intelligence, or so I'd previously assumed...
) that "droughts are caused by all those rockets they fire up into the air making holes in the sky" So obviously it goes without saying, before rockets were invented there were no droughts, easy really... -
Latter half only is not happening fast enough, but its coming. Full review at end of forecast....but thanks
BFTP
To be fair Blast that can always be said of the weather. It's no different to me claiming "it's going to turn very mild and Springlike in early Feb", then when it fails to happen simply suggesting "OK it's not happening fast enough, but it's coming".
Bottom line is both you and Roger have been wrong in your assertion that after a brief milder spell mid month, a cold/very cold pattern would quickly become re-established - perhaps as early as the 17th I recall you suggesting pre your holiday.
That my friend has not transpired, therefore you simply have to accept and concede you were wrong, because extending the likelihood of it happened into February just does not cut the mustard.
Far better, fairer and importantly less confusing if you simply draw a line under January now and give us your untainted predictions for February.
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Trouble is, the MetO haven't said anything whatsoever about a 'Siberian blast' - although they have said temps over the New year will fall ....... to the same they've been the past few days!
I guess "current chilly weather to continue" just isn't a dramatic enough headline, even for the Times
Quote - "Wrap up, Met Office warns of Siberian blast and freezing weather"
On the evidence of the above they need to contact their lawyers then...
Trouble is they won't tho, because the media give them a very convienient win/win situation. For instance IF the bitter spell comes off they won't distance themselves from the headline, but if it doesn't they will. -
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Never buy one these days, so can't really comment, but back when I did the Guardian's always used to be half decent.
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Pushing things back farther and farther, sounding quite desperate too, despite the fact he's now bought himself a full 3 week window.
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Fine and sunny here for the 3rd day in a row, but still with a cold, penertating wind. Overnight min was -0.4c, (so yes an air frost even down here in the sub-tropics) then up to 2.7c at noon, but feeling more like -6c in the wind.
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From the girl that used to say "It's freezing" when the temp was two or three degrees above normal she's suddenly saying things like "it's cold this morning but nothing out of the ordinary for the time of year" and other statements down similar lines. I wonder if someone's had a word or is she getting tougher as the years go on.
Still remember finding some true cold weather in a blizzard once. Funny watching her nearly blow away poor girl.
Anyway nice to see accurate comments being made and a positive step forward.
Thinking about it more presenters seems to be making comments based on the expected temps of the year rather than saying automatically a cold night with when single figures are shown. Still the odd slip happens but much better over all.
It's nothing that radical, she just got some themal keks for Xmas... :lol:
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I think you have been had Daily Express style :lol:
LOL - I'm sure VP was having a laff mate...
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I can understand why equally desperate sections of the written media might give this nut job the oxygen of publicity (no rocket science there), but quite why so many intelligent people on this Forum get suckered into wasting their valuable time even looking at his skull numbing drivel totally baffles me.
In my opinion the guy is a publicity seeking, egotistical buffoon, who time and time again undermines, devalues and embarrasses the meteorological community by mixing weather forecasting up with soothsaying, stargazing and fits of wild, foundationless marketing.
His forecasts are about as much use as a Wollies voucher thats valid from the end of next week.
Try his new affiliates site if you need proof... www.BlatentWeatherScaremongeringStillMakesMoney.com
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Something of an interesting day here, despite completely missing out on any wintry stuff as per normal. Strong gusty winds, with frequent rain or hail showers, occasional claps of thunder and some lightning. Got up to 9.1c in the brief sunny spells, but also plunged to 4.5c in the heaviest of the showers.
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Not a genuine flake since Nov 2005, but then again 3 year periods of snowlessness (I'm sure that can't be a real word, but you know what I mean) are the rule rather than the exception here.
Prior to that fall, I was at the local school giving a talk about weather to a class of 10-11yr olds and many of them claimed to have never seen snow. The concept of building a snow man was lost on them, which in a way seemed very sad. Driving back from the school that day, the thought hit me that they must be some of the only children in the world who live 50 deg north of the equator and really don't know what snow is like. Not sure that could happen anywhere else in the northern hemisphere.
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Air warming increasingly rapidly here as wind freshens and rain arrives.
17:00hrs: 2.2c
18:00hrs: 2.4c (+0.2)
19:00hrs: 2.9c (+0.5)
20:00hrs: 3.7c (+0.
21:00hrs: 4.7c (+1.0)
22:00hrs: 5.8c (+1.1)
23:00hrs: 7.0c (+1.2)
At this rate it'll be 20c by dawn....
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I would say that they are thicker clouds caused by steam from power station cooling towers. I'll see if I can find out which ones.
Thanks fine wine, that would appear a plausible explanation if there are any cooling towers directly below those points, but as Andy as pointed out there was a third one earlier just to the west if you look closely at the first frame. Also the odd thing is they don't appear on the infra red image and I assume cooling tower steam would.
Does the plot thicken??? :lol:
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You have to remember that there is a financial cost associated with the Met. Office forecasting any kind of unusual weather.
Councils, gas suppliers and any other organisations that have a financial interest in what the temperature is going to be will make their plans according to what the Met Office say.
If they said another 1963 was on the way then milions of pounds would be spent preparing.
On that basis they have to be fairly conservative unless they are very sure that exceptional weather is on the way.
That's what I meant by playing the %'ages game Eddie. However the same financial rules apply across the other side of the pond, but for some reason NOAA seem to be very much more confident and positive about their seasonal outputs.
Trying to play safe can also be fraught with dangers tho, as the MO might well discover to it's cost this Winter.
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Backing the form horse again - as said December has been the lowest anomoly wise over approx the last 10 years, so maybe the MET office are recognising this fact coupled with the model outputs. Not really surprising, but to change a month and to continue on the same track there after is a little strange.
Couldn't agree more Timmy - it's just another classic example of the MO's long range forecasting agenda, which is all about playing the %'ages game and striving not to get things wrong, as opposed to getting them right.
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to be fair to Stuart all he is doing is posting the forecast each time its issued by that web site. No harm in him doing that surely?
There's no harm for some in Alligator wrestling, but I wouldn't do it and I think it's fair to question the wisdom and purpose of it....
Will look forward to seeing your Feb update and your apology....soz I meant apogee 
February CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
3.6c for me, but only because the very mild last 3rd will make up a fair amount of the loses from the first 2/3rds of the month.