london-snow

Think I read that the ssw don’t take effect until tomorrow (I think?) add to that what bobbydog has stated above. I honestly don’t think we will see a true handle on our patterns going forward until such factors play out and drip and feed down into the various output we see day in and out. Not one for the faint hearted for sure but I have faith in the brilliant knowledgeable posters who have called for a potentially very cold pattern to emerge and backed up by the met who have not changed their tune for well over a week.

With all due respect posts like yours create the jumping and start the bickering off.. Not many members have a great deal of knowledge but are ‘ weather enthusiasts ‘ and whilst trying to learn rely on more seasoned and knowledgeable posters for pointers or predictions of which way our weather is heading. When you post one gfs that shows day 10 mildish weather and don’t take into effect what impacts a ssw may have it kind of rubs people that have took hours to write a well balanced and thought out post backed up by charts the wrong way. Not saying your theory might be right or wrong but try and take everything into consideration and not just view one run and think ‘ that’ll hack them off ‘.

Forgive me for the sake of this thread but has this ssw occurred yet? Has the dismantling of the pv happened yet and has it given us a clear insight of where blocking will occur owing to this ssw? I don’t think so.. There have been some great posts from insightful scientific posters over the past few days who has backed up their thoughts with understandings and data related to strat warming’s and how it can and possibly will affect our island in the near future. I duly note that not many of the charts posted by our knowledgeable posters actually show a ecm or gfs chart but more scientific charts related to the ssw and what goes with it. That may be the clue to those less knowledgeable like myself regarding what’s happening up top and that is because nothing has occurred yet and hence the reasons why the filtering down to the likes of the daily models have yet to get to grips. So to avoid more bickering why not wait until the ssw has happened then ramp or moan in the relevant thread? Early next week imo likely to see where we go in the mid to long term.

Just a observation people are moaning about the gfs and how it has shown a consistent trend for the past 2 that’s 2 runs to water down this potential incoming cold spell. Here is a point.. Has the ukmo & ecm over the past 12 runs shown this watered down version?? Nope..

We have had some quite clear and frosty days over the course of winter even a few slushy deposits of wet snow but nothing out of the ordinary and certainly nothing compared to other parts of the uk. This possible sustained cold spell could make up for the past letdowns and garden paths it sure is fascinating viewing at the moment. Wouldn’t worry too much about snow possibilities atm imo.

Many thanks ?

Would you happen to have a link to view his thoughts Karyo? Thanks ?

Predictions are one thing but backing up your reasonings behind your predictions as teits has done is priceless. Maybe give a balanced view on why any potent easterly will fail because imo anything past 96+ at the moment is dubious. There is a wide range of options on the table which is why i refrain from calling any option going forward at the moment.

I agree a lot with steve's thoughts and analysis as it has been proven time & time again that the GFS cannot handle easterlies well. Another point i may make is that the first push of cold weather is virtually nailed on its into early mind next week when disagreements start. That's near a week away peeps especially when we are talking about small details having big effects things such as the positioning and orientation of the HP & shortwaves galore. Take one one step at a time, Don't hang on every run & sanity will be sparred.

I believe Tamara used the phase 'The worm is turning last winter'.. 2017 SPECIAL... The TURTLE is turning and it's coming to a town near you.. ?

Really please explain..

I don't see any watering down of charts just differentating variations of possibilities currently all output is cold. The key differences are from +72 - +144 on how we go forward. Take a a chill pill and enjoy the ice train...

This looks like a sample starter before the mains. The radar is not picking up the constant strikes from the south but it's every 20secs. And look what's to come. Londoners get ready see you on the other side.

Loving the radar atm sw london lookout in a hour or so going to go bang

That seems to be the trouble the past few years we down in the south bake and those up north get all the goods storm wise.

Storms starting to fire just south of Pompey,

Typical depressive heat and a breeding ground for those up north.

I'm in Morden SM4 what a shamble a 5 mile trek its utter madness here calm and cloudy tut tut tut..

So so perilously close in sm4 constant thunder no rain as of yet but signs of back building as far south and east of me as dorking..

There you go mate :-)

Big strike directly south of me now with distant thunder. it does seem to me though the heavy rain has cooled things off a tad. Which may explain lack of convection I.E lightning and thunder. . .

First strike here just to the west of me no thunder as of yet..

If anyone's old enough or young and likes a war film I will quote a famous saying from fail safe which we will be using tonight ' Mr president I hear sounds of explosions coming from my south east (instead of north east) the sky is very bright all lit up BAAAAAANNNG...

Look mate real unstable mass has only just reached coastal areas and yet to interact further inland. Give it half hour and I think you'll be surprised..

Nick I agree it's frustrating but I don't blame Matt at all I blame people certain wums who like to take certain snippets from social media and not read and or post the full balanced post and do this so it causes a stir.