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Everything posted by damianslaw

  1. A southerly NW-SE aligned jet is the reason why, low pressure elongating and making a beeline for England and Wales rather than Scotland, and becoming slow moving.. lots of rain, wind and feeling preety cold as well.
  2. Is the movement towards an easterly QBO also having an effect in maintaining the disconnect?
  3. Yes air frost expected tonight, and quite probably tomorrow as well, slightly milder Tuesday night but a ground frost could occur, making for three cold nights in a row. We often see the first run of frosts around last week of October on average. Will be nice to wake up to a frosty sunny scene in the morning, instead of grey skies.
  4. In the very near-timeframe, a continued respite from the rain many have endured for weeks now, 2-3 days of decent dry chilly autumnal weather with frost and sunshine, before we see rain return from Wednesday onwards, northern and eastern areas should hold on to a mostly dry day, by Halloween rain for all. November starting off on an unsettled note - all very normal and typical, temps around average..
  5. First air frost for some tonight, widespread low mins for much of the UK, quite likely somewhere will record lowest min of season so far..
  6. Yes rainfall totals nearly up there with autumn 2000 which remained wet through November and December with flooding, lets hope we don't see a repeat. One thing this autumn so far hasn't been is windy - barely any gales to speak of, thankfully.
  7. Looking through the jetstream profile forecasts - the output is showing a predominantly southerly tracking one, aligned NW-SE which would suggest diving low pressure systems over the UK probably more to our west, with some form of blocking to the north or NE holding sway, these could change, but does align with the models at the moment, with next week's mid week low pressure system forecast to move in from the SW/W on wednesday and thursday, collapsing in on itself over the UK and forced to retreat SE, with perhaps showery cool conditions from the NW thereafter, the forcing appears NW-SE aligned. Looking longer term - no sign of anything especially settled as we enter November, all rather typically autumnal and very seasonal.
  8. Looking quite likely we will see our first below average CET value month against the 61-90 mean since March 2018.Only just below probably, but still below. Colder minima in the nights ahead will enable this to happen, maxima not far off average in the south despite today's warmth and perhaps something milder mid week 30-31st, below average in the north to close out rest of the month, indeed some appreciably below average means for northern half of the UK.
  9. A miserable cold wet morning here, following on from a preety drab cold wet day yesterday. Temperatures around the 5-6 degree mark, more akin to mid winter in feel. Await to see how low the snowline might be once we see a clear out in the next couple of hours, only expecting perhaps a slight cover above around 700 metres, as the precipitation has only been moderate in intensity over the central fells. Evaporative cooling has been evident but not significant enough to enable a much lower snowline.. anyhow will wait to see. Looking forward to some dry cold frosty conditions over the days ahead, we've had a long run of wet grey weather and could do with some sunshine - the frost will put damage to the leaves, but also produce a late intensity to the colour before they finally wither away and fall- thankfully we've been spared any stormy weather. Indeed so far this autumn hasn't been especially windy despite low pressure ruling the roost.
  10. Yes the models did this to a degree with tomorrows frontal/low pressure feature only to back away and show a much shallower feature. It seems odd and not backed by the Ensembles.
  11. Its been a very near average autumn so far temps wise, though I suspect southern parts might have seen something a bit more above the average for September - as the mean average figure is the average for the CET zone, and doesn't necessarily reflect much of the UK. In the northern half of the Uk, we are running a bit below average this month, and could end up with something a bit lower than usual.
  12. In the shorter time frame - consistency between ECM and GFS, high pressure to the NW, and a cold northerly flow Sunday-Monday, thereafter a difference with the ECM blowing up a low to the west crossing the UK, before a northerly comes back, GFS having none of this.. usually its the GFS that does this kind of thing.. either the ECM will remove such feature in future runs, or the GFS begins to show it.. The evolution though is to further chilly northerly sourced airflow as we enter November.
  13. Looks like Sunday and Monday night could deliver quite widespread frost, and it will be slow to clear as well.
  14. Looking at the short term - still plenty of time for the models to play around with the position and path of the projected low pressure and frontal feature due to move into the UK Friday. It may correct on a more southerly path, thanks to a more pronounced polar airstream digging down and undercutting it.. midlands/peak district southwards (I'm hoping so from an imby perspective it stays away for a good proportion of Friday at least here, to get a good day's fell walking in).. it can arrive later in the day. Beyond, ensembles and models mainly in agreement for a more settled chilly spell with heights building to the NW, frost and fog and below average temps to see October out.
  15. I've read musings that it is the extent of snow increase in the last week of October which is the key time period - a rapid advance can result in a strengthened siberian high in the winter.. doesn't necessarily equate to cold in the UK being more likely, but increases the chances. I recall 2012 was the last time a rapid advance occured in a very short space of time in the last week or so of October..
  16. Interesting model viewing today - some significant changes from what was shown over the weekend - back to a much colder theme for the latter part of the month, with a battle taking place between polar air and tropical maritime air. The key difference in the models today is the projected depth and position of the remnants of the split trough anchoring itself to our SW. Yesterday the models were showing a much more robust and rounded feature cutting off the polar air supply to the north quickly and thus ushering in a mild SW wind with heights pumping up from the near continent thanks to the increased pressure gradient. Today the models are showing a much shallower and stretched feature becoming elongated with a much less marked pressure gradient, hence much less in the way of height development to the south, allowing the polar air to have a much easier ride in nosing down on the trough and pushing it quickly aside, giving the northern half of the UK at least a very chilly end to the week - with snow quite possible to modest levels. Thereafter heights are forecast to build through the UK towards the NW, which ties in with what the Ensembles have been showing for quite a while now - giving a chilly crisp and dry end to October - a cold high so lots of frost and possible fog.. Still a chance the models could have it wrong this evening and they revert back to what they were showing over the weekend, but the timeframes are much shorter now, and when you get a very quick about turn of pattern development in the 96-120 hr timeframe, and all models are on the same page, chances of them completely backing away in future runs is quite minimal, not to say a half way house or watered down version can occur. After a predominantly unsettled first two thirds to October, might we end up with a very seasonal dry cold frosty end.. would be nice to see.
  17. First day of the autumn when there has been a definate shift in overall feel of things - chilly in a word, with a cool northerly wind, combined with clear air. Temps have struggled to hit double figures for the first time this season - all very normal for mid October. Could do with some crisp cold mornings and air frosts, but alas there will be too much wind and cloud around for that over the coming nights. Looking ahead- a mixed week, but thankfully some drier conditions in the near future - which will be a welcome respite from weeks of rain.
  18. Hope we don't see a November like 2009 - that brought torrential rain here, and significant flooding, and coming on the back of a very wet period since August, would quite likely do the same. Nov 2009 was interesting though, as it saw strong ridge development to the east and also to our NW, with the trough locked in situ pumping up mild SW winds/s winds, the trough never properly broke through eastwards until the end of the month - a sign all was not normal..
  19. Models flip flopping around at the moment - all a sign there is major uncertainty in the forecast as we move through next week. Heights set to build strongly towards Greenland, and the longwave trough is set to split and sit partly to our west and also our NE, whilst at the same time heights are forecast to build out to our south. What it leaves the UK in is a bit of a battleground, with no clarity which feature will be the dominant one. I think we will have to wait until Sunday at the earliest before we have any certainty - and consequently expect more flip flopping from the models in the runs ahead, from balmy southerlies, back to arctic northerlies, high pressure sat over the UK, and cyclonic low. The GFS run is quite an off one, with a closed deep low pressure system sat out to our West detached from the main trough - a cut off low of sorts. There could be quite marked variations in conditions from north to south next week, boundary of cold/mild air quite possibly through the centre of the UK.
  20. In my post yesterday I said one possible scenario for later in the month was for a NW then northerly flow - indeed GFS showing this today with strong Greenland high. ECM less keen, but still shows blocking by the end of this week and into next week to our north and north west.
  21. We had a white christmas in 2010. A surprise snowfall late morning, which lasted about an hour and half, deposited a fresh couple of cms. It was an odd event as we had high pressure overhead and there was no frontal or trough feature. I think it was caused by milder air aloft moving across a very cold bed of air. Boxing Day brought a raw dank feel, we then had a heavy shortlived snowfall from a frontal feature from the west on the 27th, before a thaw took place.
  22. Quite probably reached the high point mid month, and a gradual fall can be expected from here on in, perhaps notably so if synoptics shown by some of the models today verifies, key factor - cold nights., along way to go yet.. but at this range, a very near average month most likely.
  23. Yes 2000 brought very stormy conditions from mid October onwards, something so far thankfully we have spared this autumn, but plenty of time yet. 2012 was a notably unsettled autumn, but never especially severe or very wet. There was a potent arctic blast in October around the 26th I think and it became quite cold towards the end of November. A very seasonal autumn overall. I mentioned 2000 because of how wet things were, and how wet its been this year at this stage. It feels very much like an autumn of the early - mid 90s to me, so far. We had a run of notably unsettled wet autumns 1991-1994 with the atlantic ruling the roost. These autumns were also preety chilly, indeed damn right cold at times. Sept and more especially so October 1992 was notably chilly. Oct 1993 brought a cold spell with wintry showers, and Nov 93 was very cold towards latter stages with widespread snow. Conversely Nov 1994 was very mild. I'd be very happy if the autumn eventually pans out like 1993.. rather than 1994. We have been spoilt recently with October, which has more often than not delivered very benign pleasant conditions, sometimes very mild - especially at months end.
  24. Mmm models playing around with things for the end of the week and into next week - what they all agree on though is a very slow moving trough inching its way over the UK as the week wears on. ECM and UKMO both show heights building in behind the trough and notably to the north, GFS showing the atlantic having an easier time to move back in after a couple of quieter settled days. Next week not looking quite as clear as perhaps first thought. A very plausible set up would be heights ridging through the UK on an east-west axis, before the trough moves back down from the NW, sending heights out west and pulling in a NW, then possible northerly. The other scenario is for heights to orientate more on a SW-NE axis building into the near continent with frontal activity much weaker breaking through splitting the ridge into two parts, sinking SE in one direction and moving west in another. Either way the ridge looks preety weak and unlikely to last that long, based on this evening's models, but also importantly never too far away to enable a different atlantic profile to what we have been accustomed too over recent weeks - the classic westerly, exchanged perhaps for something more meridional.,, with polar air having an easier time to invade perhaps..
  25. Wettest first half to autumn, I think since 2000.. that autumn continued in very wet theme throughout resulting in significant flooding by December - lets hope we can escape that this year. Recent autumns have been very mixed on the rainfall front, we've had some notably wet ones such as 2013 and 2015, but also some very dry ones such as 2010 and 2016. We haven't had a sustained wet autumn throughout since 2000 though. Indeed its been rare to not see at least one lengthy anticyclonic spell at some stage.. No obvious sign of that for the foreseeable, though granted some places did see quite dry weather mid September. Its also been rare not to see some exceptionally mild conditions at some stage as well, lasting for quite a period. Some Octobers in recent years especially later on have delivered exceptional mild weather.. We could be on course to see a very average autumn temp wise, with very little in the way of extreme temps either cold or mild, yet a very wet one, which would make it quite a change from many recent ones.
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