damianslaw

danm Interesting video, we've had southerly jet, but not far enough south to import any easterly and northerly influences, shows SSW's, southerly jets and negative NAO doesn't always equate to cold. Indeed very mild, courtesy of more of a west based NAO and super warm SSTs. Back to the models. generally staying changeable, a south west flow becomes westerly then north westerly, possibly northerly and north easterly, the clock time in sync with the weather. Next week probably much drier than this week, but colder, might we see a run of average/ colder average days, first time in 3 months.

Another miserable day weather, it has brightened up at times this afternoon, sparking off showers. Heavy rain overnight and this morning led to lots of standing water. Cold feeling, max temp 9.5 degrees. Outlook stays very mixed, milder for a bit, but cloudy and wet at times, limited dry spells, also windy, cooler through weekend, certainly first half of April will be classed as very unsettled. Longer term, perhaps some colder drier conditions with northerly and easterly influences as often happens deeper into Spring.

WYorksWeather Yes, not great prospects for here, given we are firmly in our 'drier season', that tends to last until late June.

Just read Cumbria weather report for April 1978. A cold dry month it says with mostly easterly and northerly winds. 5cms snow here on 11th , a further 5 cms on 13th.

Certainly a notably mild start, but also wet and rather dull. The theme of very wet very mild and very dull months continues it seems, though April is rarely very wet with exception 2012... and there are signs the second half of the month could be a lot drier than the first half, if high pressure does come on the scene depending on location, it may well bring much cooler minima something that has eluded the UK for 3 months. It does feel since the 19th Jan by and large we've seen the weather behave akin to a long broken record, one featuring a stubborn trough trapping mild moist air, its been thoroughly miserable.

Opportune time to reflect on today's weather, a rather cloudy day, drizzly rain at times, more so this afternoon, some brightness. A neither here nor there sort of day. Not expecting much change to bright in remaining hours, only increased likelihood of more rain.

Interesting to note the article saying could have cold springtimes number of years, indeed cold northerly outbreaks were a feature of many following springs, 79, 80, 81, 83, 85, 86, 87, 88. 89, 90 all brought snowy airstreams mid spring, sometimes in May i.e. 79.

At that point in the year, whereby I tend to leave it until about half 3/4 before commenting and reflecting on the day's weather, given there is much daylight left, and a change can and does often occur by late afternoon, for better or worse. In the winter months by 2pm the general state of play can be summarised. Leaving things to about 4pm also enables a more informed view of when and what high maxima may occur, in the summer months can take until 6pm to reach max, whereby in winter months rarely is the max reached after 2pm. Interesting to note the sudden change in feel and psyche that takes place now.. it is sudden and quite profound.

WYorksWeather Perception suggests to me less in the way of the classic ridge /trough pattern in succesion, i.e. the low pressure from the west, associated warm front, SW winds backing west, then pronounced cold front and NW airflow, followed a cool ridge, and back to the SW flow and warm front. Instead we seem to have deeper troughs to our west, pumping up stronger ridges fending off the low pressure and pulling in southerly and long drawn SW flows, with inflated azores high, when low pressure does move through, the ridge to the SW is keen to advance quick with NW flow brushing far NE UK only.

B87 Nov 85, Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr 86 all below mean average, notably November, February - exceptionally, a sub freezing mean and April. No wonder everything was still bare by 1 May. It was a notably cold period on the back of a cold 1985, August and Sept 86 were significantly below average. Such conditions today would feel like an ice age.

A blustery day throughout, indeed windier than yesterday..Apart from a spit of rain, we've stayed dry remarkably. Not a good day's weather overall, no sun, and cool in the wind. The coming week offers more wind and rain.

Mark wheeler The classic spring southerly then northerly switcharound, very common second half of Spring, all very normal, northerlies and easterlies reach their annual peak mid April to end May. Any other time, I'm sceptical of northerlies and easterlies but not in said timeframe.

Need more runs, but, we may be about to see a significant change on the way, courtesy of heights ebbing west, introducing a cooler flow from between north and west. Lets see if this theme continues tomorrow, but its the way the models are heading.

Longer term and outside the reliable, the models continue to pick up the trend towards mid atlantic heights and the atlantic finally quietening down, indeed far more typical synoptics for deeper spring.. knock on effect a cooling down and possibly an airflow from between west and north east, rather than the perpetual west to south east quadrant that we've been locked into for most of the last 6 months. As said outside the reliable, but if verifies this would be a definate pattern shift, losing the omipresent azores high ridge followed by low pressure onslaught from the south west. I think many would be happy to exchange very mild and wet/ cloudy, for dry, sunny and something average/ cooler. Lets see if the trend continues, more likely at this stage in the year to see such developments than any other stage. In the reliable if you like early warmth, humidity, damp or wet and windy you'll be happy with the immediate prospects, but those wanting a drying out soon will have to stay patient.

Where is this storm? No wind here so far, all quite odd. Its dry, rather cloudy. Current temp 13.5 degrees. Temps unusually set to peak by noon, not expecting it to feel particularly warm, a high possibly 15 degrees, nothing at all special for early April. Chance of showers..

Summer8906 Though memories are quite hazy, I've commented before on how I don't recall much in the way of lengthy warm weather in the summers of 85-88 when I was 7-10 yrs old. Warm isn't the same as dry though, and we were often outside whatever the weather. Summer 89 though, what a treat!

Emerging signal for something less unsettled overall through next week, once the secondary low feature that the models are showing for Mon-Tues zips through. Azores ridging being shown later through the week, but, the atlantic also shown to have enough oomph to prevent any major height rise through the UK. Instead its shunted west and by mid month a chillier NW flow sets in, though we may see a more pronounced mid atlantic ridge. The synoptics on offer look more seasonal than recent and current output. Could end up though being a very mixed April and not very April like, and quite interesting if you want variety, whilst often a quiet benign month, it can throw up the biggest extremes of any month, the classic southerly/northerly switcharounds.

A rather drab dank day so far here, drizzly rain at times and mostly low cloud. Winds are picking, we had a temp of 13.5 degrees an hour or so ago, down to 12.3 degrees now.

Under the radar is the snow warning for higher parts east Scotland tomorrow, nothing too untoward for early April, but modest levels could see a lot, 200m plus. There is a tussle between cold polar air and tropical maritime air, the added warmth from the SSTs probably fuelling the pressure gradient next 24 hrs and therefore enables a deep low to form, we perhaps in other times would have had a snow event here with the low further south and less deeper. The propensity for cold NE winds to dig far into N Atlantic has been a theme of recent months, the affect though is to lead to low pressure to our SW cutting off any cold air supply.

Scuba steve Yes a fine day here so far, bright rather than sunny, but dry at least. Current temp a pleasant 11.7 degrees. Not enthused by the prospect of a strong / near gale force wind even if it is a mild one, any strong wind makes for unpleasant uncomfortable feeling.

summer blizzard Mmm not sure, spring growth appears well advanced, aided by the very mild minima and little frost more so than sunshine. Expecting many trees to burst open their leaves fully in next couple of weeks, about 2-3 weeks earlier than usual. Bluebells have been out in sheltered southern aspects for a week now.. gone is the wait until the end of April now.

Sunny and cold all the way, a wet dull windy day with a max of 14 degrees can in April feel every bit colder than a sunny dry day with little wind and a max of 9 degrees given how warm the sun strength is, by the end of the month it is as strong as in mid August. The feel of the weather varies depending on cloud amount and wind as well as temp. The coming weekend is a case in point, oh I can't wait for heavy rain, gales and no sun and a max of possibly 15 degrees! won't feel warm in the slightest.

Most Augusts pale into a humid wet haze to me, a month I never rate, far too often plagued by south west gloom and rain. 2016 springs out as the best overall. 2014 and 2017 I remember being very wet, and 2011 exceptionally dull.

Summer8906 Haven't the stats but we've had a number of thoroughly wet summers here since 2015, only 2018 and 2022 can be classed as very dry, 2021 quite dry.

WYorksWeather Dry ground conditions are an important factor. If we look at the three hot summers of 1976, 95 and 18 they came on the back of three very dry second halves to spring. Still time for an about change, but after 9 very wet months, it will take an exceptionally dry few weeks to set up such a foundation, and I'm not sensing any major drying out in said time period.