damianslaw

Significantly more likely to be mild, but cold spells still possible.. might see a few shots of arctic air then.. with high pressure to the west, but quickly toppled by milder atlantic air invading around NW flank of the heights - its not a bad place to be if looking for something more substantively colder, the ridge may build further north than anticipated and block the atlantic.. but at the same time, 1-2 day northerly topplers don't float cold snow lover's boat. This is just one possible option.. the cold spells could come from cyclonic conditions, but it doesn't suggest anything from antiyclonic or easterly.. reference to more likely to be wetter, but does say only slightly. Again this doesn't suggest an atlantic rain fest either, with SW/W airstreams.

A chilly start to October then, thanks mainly to supressed maxima, however, expect a fair rise from Wednesday onwards both due to very mild maxima and minima.. signs we may see more nearer average or a bit below minima we move further into the middle of the month - but much will depend on how much cloud cover becomes trapped within the anticyclonic ridge. Would be good to have a frosty foggy high, but the ridge is building in very mild uppers, and I think it may take some time before we see a clearer airstream.. but give it time..

Is October going to be an easy month to forecast then? Mmm possibly, this week becoming mild/very mild, rather overcast under a moist SW airstream and settled away from the NW, as high pressure noses in from the azores high and settles over southern england. Whilst we may see temps in the high teens even nudging 20 degrees, I don't foresee a particularly sunny outlook and there will be no 'summer' feeling despite the media hype that we will have to endure over the coming days.. Into next week, the models are showing the high ridging and building over the UK, whether it will be a cloudy or sunny high, no sure, might be one of those that takes its time, the cloud eventually becoming squeezed as we export a bit of continental air as the core of heights shifts slightly eastwards. All the while the models are showing a scandi trough forming, and the effect of this will be to prevent heights from building and moving eastwards, instead a kick westwards looks plausible, and longer term as we move through the middle of the month we become exposed to a flow from the NW, jetstream NW-SE aligned and low pressure/trough building down from the NW, becoming more unsettled and generally cool. Every chance thereafter the mid atlantic heights ridge north and we may pull down a cold northerly sourced airstream before month's end - that's a long way off but a possible direction of travel.

Reading between the lines, looks like we will exchange the milder settled tropical maritime airstream away from the far NW as we move through this week, for something more substantively settled and anticyclonic next week, as heights build over the UK. This is being shown in the models today. However, at the same time, a sharp scandi trough will form, and the high will be forced westwards into the atlantic becoming a mid atlantic high, but not close enough to keep the atlantic away, instead a NW-SE jetstream profile with low pressure dropping down from the NW, bringing cooler wetter conditions for the NW, and possibly in time everything then shifts further west and we pull down a much colder northerly sourced flow. All very very plausible.

Need a frost, and no sign of that for England and Wales at least in the foreseeable, but if we do see high pressure stick around and shift more direct over the UK, we should in turn lose the cloud cover and by mid October that is a recipe for fog and frost.. I feel a late season colour change may also be down to the late spring possibly. Late October, or early Nov this year will be the peak, could be one of those seasons when everything suddenly bursts into life in a very short space of time. In the Lake District, usually by the third week of October we see full autumn colours, a gale or sharp frost can quickly bring the leaves down though.

Not a bad day overall, decent sunny breaks in between shortlived showers. Cool feeling. Tomorrow - oh dear another write off day, had a few of these recently. Heavy persistant rain forecast and temps perhapd no higher than 10 degrees. After weeks of very dry conditions, and low river levels, and reservoirs, what a difference a week or so makes. Fields are already waterlogged.. Can't say I'm enthused about the prospect of high pressure from the azores ridging into southern parts, all it will bring here is low cloud, and quite likely rain or drizzle.. needs to build northwards for something brighter. Also no sign of any frost, but may go quite low tomorrow. A late first frost this year on the cards.

I like your reference to 'dark Sunday', not heard that before. This year it falls on Halloween. How fitting!

Agree good injections of polar air inbetween the systems have been a feature of recent days, blowing away the cobwebs and bringing welcome clear blue skies and fresh air. When we have tropical maritime followed by returning polar maritime we end up with a gloom fest here. Conditions that ruined many a month and unfortunately have been more likely in recent years with little variation.

I don't have strong memories of any particular weather event, but October 1992 at 7.8 degrees was notably cold. Nearly 3 degrees below the mean. Welcome memories of this month. I think there were early snowfalls in places not just on high ground around mid-month. I just remember alot of chilly dank weather throughout the month coming on the back of a chilly damp September. Think there were hard frosts by months end.

The cold in mid October was notable. A run of air frosts and on the 15-16th I think Shap went down close to -10 degrees. The latter part of November brought very low maxima, remember there was alot of freezing fog, something we don't seem to see any more.

Last notably cold Autumn. Sept and Oct 92 were cold but the November was mild. The July to Nov period of 93 was notably cold.. think the last coldest 5 month period may have been Feb to June 13.

No chance of driest October on record after today's widespread rainfall!

After today no chance of driest October on record. Indeed we've had about the same amount of rain in the last 6 days as we've had in the last 6 weeks if not more!

Unusual I guess for October, not out of place after a SSW or in Spring. We've had a year with a weak diffluent jet.. Atlantic has never really stirred. Last time we had such a quiet Atlantic was 2010...

I'm in the centre of London. Last time I visited in July 2019 it poured down... ditto today. Miserable.

In Scotland and far north of England last winter was I think the coldest overall since 2009-10. I could be wrong.. may be 10-11 but I always dismiss that one as cold overall as it was one of two halves, exceptionally cold December followed by near average Jan and very mild Feb. I rated last winter on a par with 12-13, slightly better than 17-18 for cold and snow.. but it was very episodic and the cold and snow never extreme, just alot of rather cold weather at times. Here we were often just on the right side of the margins for cold weather. However we missed out on many decent snow events everything pivoted around us.. meaning we had numerous light snowfalls that never stuck around for more than a day or two. 12-13 delivered our last major snowfall, 8 inches in January.. we just missed out on epic fall in March, a few miles to the west unusually there was a deluge of the stuff

Thinking back to the colder winters of 2008-09, 09-10, 10-11 and if you include March 12-13, all delivered either cold northerlies at some point in October, most notably 2008, but also 2010 and 2012 late in the month, or warm anticyclonic conditions that became progressively colder, 2009 and 2010. What brings them together is the weak jet - Atlantic was often meridional in flow... sometimes October delivers clues for the winter. Equally all apart from December 09 brought a cold end to Nov and start to Dec. 2009 saw the cold delayed until about 10th... We have a rather meridional jet now.. we have had it all year. 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012 all featured a southerly jet for long periods and much cyclonic or trough dominated spells interspersed with anticyclonic ones.. 2021 has been very similar to these 4 years so far...

Quite normal for Octobe- bit of anticyclonic fine weather especially further SE, and the traditional NW-SE split with most unsettled weather further NW. Word of caution 2021 has not followed the 'normal' default mind.. and I am expect wild contrasting output in model runs for period into mid October.

I was in the south Rockies October 2010. No frost at all. On the 20th, Calgary recorded 20 degrees.

As others have said, quite abrupt changes in the models this evening, all courtesy of how they interact ex tropical storm Sam with the jetstream. All are showing the feature promoting a strong ridge ahead - and the jestream pulled away from the UK on a SW-NE trajectory far to our NW. Looking at the jestream profile, it looks quite messy longer term, suggestion it will loop in on itself, and strike through scandi, not surprised to see some of the longer range output suggesting heights eventually building NW, quite unusual, indeed very unusual for this to happen in October. It could be the models have it all wrong, and ex storm Sam fools them all.. but if the models verify as shown this eve, we will exchange the very disturbed conditions of now, much drier conditions, and feeling pleasant, but possibly chilly nights, before something more substantively colder possibly if we see the retrogression - relative to the time of year. Very interesting.

By reference to last two winters you mean 18-19 and 19-20? Yes I wouldn't want a repeat of either, 19-20 was one long rainfest, a slightly cooler less wild version of 13-14 but nearly as bad. 17-18 and 20-21 decent though, very mixed, but some good snowy cold spells at times.

A tempestuous sort of day, some good lengthy dry breaks with some sunshine interspersed with sudden downpours, like Wednesday polar air was in the mix, and it has been a chilly day. Tomorrow looking a write off unfortunately, incessant heavy rain for much of the day. Bit of a shocker really.

A very warm September then, akin to 2006 which followed on from a rather cloudy lacklustre August.. mind it came on the back of a very warm June and hot July. September 2021 will be remembered for its dryness rather than warmth. Only the last few days brought any measurable rainfall.. but what we've had certainly made up for the drought.

Bouts of unsettled weather still possible without a zonal Atlantic flow.. right now is just about as unsettled as you can get.. and immediate horizon remains the case. A stuck pattern can see the Atlantic trough stuck over UK for long periods.. that's been the theme of 2021 switches from anticyclonic to cyclonic/trough dominated, the latter equals unsettled though perhaps not quite as much as a broad zonal flow.

A very mixed month ahead, alot of wet weather but some lengthy drier spells at times. Perhaps a shot or two of cold weather later in the month. 10.5 degrees.