damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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A run of fine clear evenings here is resulting in extended daylight until 9pm and later. We are hurtling headstrong into the lightest part of the year, evenings in May have same light levels almost akin to July and give a summer feel to proceedings. Its remarkable how the feel of everything changes from now through to late May, which by then is near peak light, it also adds to a sense must make plans and the most of the light, it will be the solstice before we know it.
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Probably be on 9.6 degrees for 26th, 9.5 or 9.4 degrees 27th, then a hold 28th, and possible 0.1-0.2 rise 29th and 30th. Finish likely 9.5 to 9.6 degrees I feel, outside chance 9.4 or 9.7.
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Windermere rain shield, can see lots of green and yellow on radar all around me, and showers in the air, yet we are still dry, only a matter of time before heavens open possibly.
Its a chilly 10 degrees, another widespread air frost tonight . Turning into a notably frosty cold spell.
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Cumbria cold pole synoptics, light northerly drift and cold uppers overhead recipe for freezing nights. Shap as low as -6.2 degrees. These are the synoptics that in winter would deliver ice days and widespread double digit minus mins. Alas its late April.
Despite lots of sun out there, the air is notably cold.
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Azazel April and May have the prospect of summer to come and for this reason I always feel are the most positive of months.
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Suspect a notably cool CET value for today. Max temp anywhere 13 degrees at Shoreham Airport, widespread low single digits mins.
A widespread frost tonight as well. Colder than many a mean temp in Feb this year! Hope people have not been lulled into potting tender plants out early..
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Kentspur A high anomaly to our west in May would usually bring a chill but bright/sunny northerly airflow, western parts would see the sunniest conditions including the Lake District. In such set ups the air is often sparkling clear and indeed brings superb conditions here. Obviously troughs can become embedded in true arctic shots but rarely potent in May, perhaps a few showers. Even better is a more NE flow that can bring warmth to the west whilst the east is plagued by cloud, a common set up in May. I always say mid April to mid June best time to visit the Lake District.
Back to the models, its all a bit unclear how next week will pan out, signs of the atlantic trough reappearing to the west to pull in a cloud dankfest to west parts once the milder easterly is out of the way, then we await to see if an atlantic ridge develops again or we maintain more notable heights direct to the north. Either way no heatwave on the cards, nor deluge, all quite benign typical stuff for this juncture in the year.
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Will be interesting comparing the 1-14 CET and the 15-30 CET.
The last couple of days will bring a warm up, but certainly the 15-28 mean will be comparably below the 1-14 mean.
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Turning into a notably cool spell, and we could end below 9.5 degrees.
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Its been fine and dry here so far today, we seem to have a shower shield around us. No evidence of any rain in early hours either. Just checked the radar and surprised at the amount of shower activity given how fine it is here. Sometimes you strike lucky, indeed we've enjoyed a run of dry days since Saturday.
It is chilly air, lots of sun but failed to reach 11 degrees.
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SunSean Shap bottom, but the last 2-3 days have been quite sunny. A very poor month for sunshine on the cards.
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Metwatch My 9.6 looks not far off, first time in ages I might be at least 0.5 degrees within final figure. Certainly a contrasting month CET wise.
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Iceaxecrampon I know Keldas well, the bluebells are a treat. I remember visiting them in mid May 2020, north slopes and they were in bloom, whereas they were barely out same time 2021.
Another fine day here, turning into a decent dry spell in the Lake District and we look best placed to see least rain in England in days ahead..As said this is the lakeland dry season, all quite normal to see eastern and south parts plagued by cloud this time of year whilst we bask in sunshine.
Chilly frosty nights at present.
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One of those occasions which is most likely to occur in the second half of Spring than any other time of year, when much of Cumbria sees the best English conditions, Wales, N Ireland and West Scotland often the same. Thanks to the influence of high pressure to the west, we received virtually nil traces of rain from the warm front, it was all to our east, and today we have sat in a dry spot, albeit cloudy, but also quite bright, high level cloud, no wind and pleasant temps close to 14 degrees. Always say mid April to late June best time to visit Lake District!
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Winter - 2010, including Dec 09, most wintry overall since 78-79.
Spring - 2011, a dry March and April combo and warm, May turned wetter. The other seasons were poor, would have said winter, but Feb was mild and wet.
Autumn 2012- very seasonal, lots of frost, early snow in late Oct and a cold end
Summer 2013, best since 2006 and much needed. July was excellent.
Summer 2014, despite a very poor August, June and especially July were great.
Winter 2015, struggled with this year, none of the seasons stood out, all quite mixed, but the winter brought alot of polar maritime air and snow at times.
Autumn 2016 , a very warm Sept, a cold frosty Nov, October I can't remember much of
Spring 2017, a very dry and mild March and April combo, I think May was quite reasonable as well. I quite liked the autumn as well very seasonal.
Summer 2018 , super June and July, imploded in August, if included May, best 3 month spell of the 10s.
2019 - can't choose, none stood out better than the other.
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Weakest warm front I've known, delivering sunshine and high cloud, puzzled... answers why this is happening?
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WYorksWeather Dec 22 could have been a notably below average month but it was counterbalanced by a very mild 19-31st period.
When was the last 30 or 31 day running mean below 61-90 average, possibly hard to calculate Whilst July 23 nearly did it, I assume the 2 July to 1 Aug was below, and we will have had something more substantively i.e. 0.5 degrees below from say 7 July to 7 August...
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Dare i watch the GFS 06Z Is this graph for Sweden? The last below average April in 1987!!!
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Its stayed dry so far here, cloudy but not overcast and a temp peak 13.5 degrees. There is precipitation to the North but it is falling apart and we might just see a very brief smatter. Overall a very fine weekend, nothing special, but after months of dull wet weather it feels far more seasonal.
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A mild morning current temp 12 degrees, but cloudy, and not expecting much increase, the rain radar shows sporadic ragged outbreaks of light rain to our north, with a heavier pulse over central east Scotland.. whether that reaches us, or heads further east remains to be seen.
Expecting a few spits and spots in the air next few hours, perhaps more sustained light rain later on. Not the most inspiring day, but far from a write off.
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Looking back at April 2021 which saw only airflow from between north or east, or anticyclonic overhead, It has me wondering which other months featured no atlantic influence i.e. no SW, W or NW airflow. Northerlies and southerlies I don't class as atlantic.
Any other examples? Feb 86 and Aug 95 spring to mind...
Edit: mods feel free to move to historic weather thread, I was meant to place it in there..
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Don The difference with April 2021 is it was cold synoptics throughout. I've run the archives and on no one day was the airstream other than either between north and east or anticyclonic, a rare example of non atlantic influence, Feb 86 a good example. The clear anticyclonic conditions allowed for very low minima, and we had very cold arctic airstream.
The current cool spell, is neither clear anticyclonic - hence more cloud holding minima up, nor air of true arctic origin.
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ANYWEATHER If the above synoptics verify I think many will be rating April 2024 as the poorest since 2012. Despite the warmth of the first 2 weeks it was combined with cloud and rain. 2021 though was very cold was also very dry and sunny.
The models are showing no sustained settled spell, by mid week we see a pincer attack - low heights to the NE merging with the atlantic trough to the NW, end product low heights over the UK, cool and wet conditions. Not clear how things may develop as we approach May, generally a very changeable outlook at a time of year which is often associated with not very changeable conditions, settled weather fans have drawn a short straw since June by and large.
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Scuba steve Yes its felt very strange!
Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by damianslaw
Well im not quite sure how we are missing the showers, Ive run the radar past 2-3 hrs and by slim margins we've stayed dry. Im always perplexed how convection builds out of nowhere, how showers can fizzle in situ as they approach but then 2 miles down the road a mass of convection builds. Its that kind of set up. The chaos of weather. Believe it or not we are on our 7th consecutive day of trace rain, must have been one of driest places last 7 days.