damianslaw

Harry233 Summer 23 was poor overall here, a 3 week dry very warm spell in June doesn't make a good summer. July was shocking here, temps barely scraped 18-19 degrees most days and it was exceptionally wet. August was mediocre.

Not clear how the second half of the month will pan out, but the very mild first half will make it difficult to achieve even a near average month.

WYorksWeather We seem to be in a situation where we are starting from a base state 2 degrees above the mean average for the time of year, meaning rather average synoptics can give appreciable warmth.

Thanks for the stats, as I thought a very dry summer here on the back of exceptional dry weather in the Spring.

Catbrainz May 92 was one of the warmest on record, very sunny and dry. The warm dry weather held through June 92, a flip to wet and cool commenced in July, quite similiar to last summer in this regard. July 16 I remember being quite average, August was decent, warm dry and sunny, best August in quite some time. Overall if we have a May, June 92 and a Jul and Aug 16 a preety good 4 months all round, only July average. Many would take it. I thought analogue wise we are akin to 1998.. hope not, other than a decent spell in May, it was a poor 4 months for settled warm weather.

Mmm next week remains very uncertain, not clear how the trough will interplay with the ridge, in these set ups, expect sudden short term developments. In the reliable a fine spell away from the NW, warm and feeling early summery.

According to time and date, 10 May marks the first day here with 'no night' as such, meaning its twilight time. Mid May brings a marked change in the psyche and whilst heatwaves may be some time off yet, in feel we rush headstrong into 'early summer'.

As we move closer to 1 June, good to read thoughts and forecasts for the upcoming summer.. might we have a more traditional one this year with the hottest weather coinciding with high summer, i.e. mid July to mid August? rather than June and indeed September as last year. Just sensing this could be a very thundery summer..

Reading about summer 84, which I have evidence and memories of being very dry in the Lake District, indeed one of the driest of the 20th century, however, it is rarely mentioned by many as a good summer. Not on the same level as 1983 or 1989, but here at least it was very dry, very sunny and often warm or very warm. Perhaps it isn't mentioned as only the NW saw very dry weather? Any stats to back this up? There was a serious drought situation here after a very dry spring, comparable to 1995 I think.

A couple of hours of moderate to heavy rain, petered out around 7pm to leave a fine clear sunny evening. The length of daylight now means a few poor hours of cloud and rain can easily be cancelled out by a few hours of fine sunny dry weather, often the case, with good mornings and evenings and poor showery afternoons.

Scuba steve Yes, rain arrived an hour or so ago, now we have a downpour, dark skies and a mass of convective activity to our east and north east, could be quite a deluge next hour or two.

In the short term, the ridge set to build tomorrow does appear to be a rather flimsy weak affair, and a light atlantic pull on its west and north west flank will result in the classic NW- SE divide, NW cloudy and damp, SE clearer settled conditions. Scotland fairs worse with dull drizzly skies at times. By the weekend the atlantic trough inching in from the west against the ridge, SE parts could turn very warm briefly as a southerly drift moves in, by early next week, rain from the west. Temps will stay above average into next week away from the NW, May 24 likely to be a notably warm first half but not on the scale of first half of April in terms of deviation from the norm. Overall England about to see a fine spell of almost early summer warmth, the sun now is as strong as late July.

Early showery rain, dry since mid morning albeit overcast though cloud us high. Whether we see any thundery downpours remains to be seen, lots of activity N Cumbria and Pennines. A warm week ahead, mid week looking finest, with sunny spells, may turn wet by the weekend. 3 fine days and a thunderstorm..

Left a damp dank Windermere this morning and greeted by a dry sunny Southport at lunchtime. Returning to Windermere this evening greeted by high level cloud and dry ground. Tomorrow will be a case of radar watching and seeing sudden shower clouds spring up out of nowhere.

Could be an odd spring, a very wet dull but one of warmest on record. Lack of clear skies preventing cold minima, and all the cloud and rain associated with very mild maritime air aided by exceptional warm SSTs to our SW. If it does end up mildest ever, it won't be remembered fondly by most.

Summer of 95 A good case I feel, a brief SW flow on the 10th-11th but pushed back by a SE flow a day later. Indeed second half of the month very blocked. It came in the midst of a very blocked period commenced March 95 lasting through to Jan 97. Dec 95 to May 96 was cold. Similiarities with 1986, 2010 and 2013.

Large variance between GFS 12z and ECM at the 10 day range, not unusual, but the fact they are opposite each other suggests models are struggling. The GFS eventually pulls in an atlantic trough, ECM much sooner. All conjecture given the timeframes, the GFS had a retrogressive signal then dropped the ridge SE, now it advects it NE.. none the wiser. In the meantime, from Tuesday onwards high pressure building over the UK bringing first nationwide fine settled warm spell, pity it is due to arrive after bank holiday.

Perpetual persistant fine drizzle all day, low cloud, cool, max 12 degrees, the SW airstream must be back.. preety grim day all round.

A damp start, looks like we had a decent dose of rain overnight. A very slow clearance of cloud expected with drizzle on and off.

SqueakheartLW Dec 10 brought a brief NW flow 3-4th and an atlantic influence 10th-12th and a south west flow 27th, doesn't fit the bill. Feb 86 probably the most recent completely non atlantic month.

A light shortlived dousing of rain at teatime otherwise a dry day, contrary to the forecasts. There is a batch of heavy convective rain over E Yorkshire whether it makes it here remains to be seen..

SunSean Shap bottom, abysmal month for sunshine here.

Not often Cumbria is England warm spot but that's the case today, 18.2 degrees, Keswick. Bit of a fohn effect, but confused as weather icons show a SW wind??? Its stayed dry so far here, a far better day up to now than forecast.

Large mass of heavy convective rain over the borders right now, then a wedge of nothing through NE England, Cumbria and far northnof yorkshire, then another dollop of rain over west and south yorkshire and south pennines. Further south appears to be a frontal feature. Wasn't the front supposed to be further north and those convective showers over the border further south. Seems the weather has fooled the computers today.

Bats32 Yes perhaps the far NW will be exposed to a damp atlantic flow.