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Supercell 89

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Everything posted by Supercell 89

  1. Looks as though the PDO is finally starting to show signs of beginning to turn negative at last. Cold anomalies beginning to develop off the west coast of the states and across the mid-pacific. Very similar to the post 97/98 El Nino event. If this continues then this could give a boost for La Nina to strengthen during the Autumn.
  2. Beginning to wonder with region 3.4 being +3.0C and region 1+2 being 1.5C whether this may cause the response from the El Nino to be more modoki like? As in previous years the temperature difference between those regions must have been the same? The last week the Aleutian Low seems to have drifted further west with High Pressure ridging into Alaska.
  3. The QBO was +ve and transitioned to -ve during the second half of the winter. The PDO was +ve all the way through which is pretty normal for El Nino, particularly strong ones.
  4. It will be interesting to see how the warm STT's off the west coast of North America interact with the strengthened ST jet during the winter months and how that has an influence further down the line for Europe. From what i've looked into +QBO winters combined with El Nino are generally mostly mild for western Europe but It depends on how other signals such as the stratosphere, solar output ect all interlink.
  5. I think the PDO its likely to stay +ve during the summer however it may wane slightly in comparison with recent months before strengthening again providing the El Nino follows suit. Will be interesting to see how summer pans out, with a -qbo and a strong positive pdo combination I personally think we'll see a mid-atlantic trough and euro high set up for most the summer with the trough drifting west every so often but thats just my humble opinion. I don't favour winter being cold despite some of the suggestions floating around today. The last +ve qbo winter with an el nino was 2006/07.
  6. I find it interesting that this El Nino struggled to get going and is pretty much vanishing before really getting anywhere, I wonder if its the atmosphere not really playing ball and wanting to go back into a more La Nina state or after that massive kelvin wave last spring there was nothing for a few months and the momentum was lost until the autumn, or a combination of both. The the strength of the +ve PDO I think can be explained mostly by the kelvin waves. Please excuse my rather amateur annotations. Looking back at last year the PDO was only weakly negative prior to January whic
  7. Please tell me I've not missed a thundersnow event back at home! Hoping for something here at uni later tonight
  8. Interesting how they've said its been a weak El Nino since summer as the STT's haven't really changed very much since then and remained persistently warm along with the north pacific due to it being in its positive phase, so it does make sense but NOAA don't for the moment seem to agree. What is more interesting is how that huge kelvin wave never materialised into a full blown enso event, i'm sure that will be one of strong research interest over the next year, given how strong that wave was, I wonder if the warm STT's around Indonesia were part of the reason?
  9. Apart from Jan, Feb and August this year hasn't been too bad in Reading. Had a very rhythmic pattern from March till late July of it being warm, dry and mostly sunny for a couple of weeks before getting a cooler unsettled period for about a week with a thunderstorm chucked in. Almost broke my record amount of storms seen in the UK this year with 11 so far, just one off my all time of 12 though we've come agonisingly close so many times this year if I was to count the amount of days i've heard thunder in the distance from a storm that dogged us at the last minute we'd be on around 17 by now.
  10. Just heard a rumble but not sure which direction it was coming from, i'm guessing from the south
  11. Just been awoken by a loud clap of thunder but its done nothing since but rain a little.
  12. Had a brief thundery shower with three flashes and bangs and that was it. Weakened by the time it got here but still better than nothing would like to think we may get something later but looks unlikely
  13. 25.5c here currently which is almost 2c up on yesterday. If it keeps like this i wouldn't be surprised if we reached 28c possibly even 29c.
  14. Hottest day of the year so far today by 0.3c and the second day this year with 80F being breached, quite unusual in that there was a strong easterly breeze throughout the day yet it almost touched 28c but still it was pretty much a perfect mid-summers day here couldn't ask for better! Hoping for the same the next 2-3 days before it cools down a touch. Some convection tried to get going this afternoon but didn't quite manage it however Saturday could be one to watch for this area as well as much of central souther parts as it looks a very similar set up to the magnificent storm fest we got d
  15. Well got nothing last night apart from one single bolt and its hardly rained at all but thats meant the temperatures remained around 18c -19c all night so a very uncomfortable night sleeping. However this could a be a silver lining for today as if we get any breaks the temperature should hopefully sky rocket as the ground is relatively dry, its already nudging 21c and its still overcast. Just hope if it does fire up I'm on my lunch break at work.
  16. Had a cracking storm rumble through here with a shelf cloud, first time i've seen one of them in the UK
  17. The channel has exploded into life in the last couple of radar scans, looks very rapid. Could be an interesting night along the south coast
  18. June was a very typical early summer month for me i felt in Reading and it was lovely. Mostly warm and dry with temperatures in the low 20's with a few cooler days slotted in-between and some thunderstorms. If July carries on in the same vein but is slightly warmer than I'll be ranking this summer quite highly. Highest temp was 23.9c but this year has been pretty strange its been persistently warm but its never gotten hot. However back at my parents in South Devon its been a different story, its been very dry and very warm month with temperatures in the low to mid 20's for at least two a
  19. I knew I should have gone for 15.5c but got took a risk that the final week would be hot, although it does look like it could very warm for a time next week across the south.
  20. Very warm and muggy outside still, currently 18.8c. Some nice convection going on as well overhead and to our North and East don't know if we can be extremely lucky and bag a fifth storm today
  21. Wow! Last night was just incredible. Best series of storms i've seen in years, had four of them one right after another lost count at the amount of Cg's and IC's there were.
  22. Second storm rattling through. Some faint infrequent flashes way to our north again, cannot believe how this has turned out.
  23. Blimey!! That was one cracking storm, easily the best i've seen in the UK for years! Lost count how many cg strikes there were, counted 5 at once :O just amazing
  24. Had a nice little brief storm just clip us from the west with a few cloud to cloud bolts but it fell apart and went quiet pretty quick, hoping the stuff over Southampton survives its march northward
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