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Thundery wintry showers

Long range forecast team
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Thundery wintry showers last won the day on November 12 2012

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About Thundery wintry showers

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    Cumulonimbus Incus

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    East Exeter, Devon
  • Interests
    Weather (of course!), chess, music, computer gaming, social events, football, tenpin bowling, environmental issues
  • Weather Preferences
    Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.

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  1. Thundery wintry showers

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    In addition there is a signal appearing for high pressure to rebuild from the west as we head into the middle part of August. It may or may not happen but it is supported by NOAA's 8-14 day outlook and the last two ECMWF operational runs.
  2. Thundery wintry showers

    Was global warming already detected before 1980?

    In 1979 a book came out called Ice Ages: Solving the Mystery, and if I remember rightly, while it suggested that the recent global cooling possibly hinted at the onset of the next ice age, human activity may override this and introduce a warming trend. The majority of the established climate scientists believed in anthropogenic global warming but in the 1970s it was a hypothesis that as yet didn't have a great deal of observational evidence behind it. The observational evidence however soon mounted with a succession of globally record warm years starting in 1981, although the warming trend didn't take hold in Britain until around 1988/89.
  3. Thundery wintry showers

    Was summer 2009 a bad summer?

    Summer 2009 was easily my favourite out of the dodgy run of summers from 2007-2012, but I did get very lucky with my locations, as I spent January-June in Exeter and July-December in Norwich that year. June in Exeter was sunny and warm overall, especially near both ends of the month. Locally there was roughly twice the normal rainfall but the vast majority of it fell in big thunderstorms on the 6th and 15th. In July I avoided the washout month that the south-west experienced, and in Norwich it was warmer and sunnier than average and again, although wet, most of the rain came from brief heavy showers and thunderstorms. The first half of August was dry but pretty dull, but sunshine picked up in the second half resulting in a warm, dry and fairly sunny month overall. My personal weather records in Cleadon in South Tyneside were still running that year and June 2009 was a pretty average month there, let down by haar in the last week. July was fairly warm and sunny but exceptionally wet, with an unusually high frequency of thunder (7 days, roughly the annual long-term average for that area of the country!) and August was quite warm and dry with average sunshine, and rounded off by a thunderstorm late on the 31st. Overall a mixed bag, but again I'd say the best of a dodgy bunch as far as the period 2007-12 goes. Least favourite summer of that period was 2012, for at least 2007 had a decent August and 2008 had a decent June. I recall quite enjoying the first half of August 2012, which had a showery thundery first week and then a dry sunny spell in the second week, but dull wet weather returned in the second half of the month.
  4. Rather odd to be thinking, "Summer in the traditional British sense has arrived, but it looks unlikely to last as the anomalously hot dry sunny weather looks set to return".  Usually it's the other way around!

    1. MP-R

      MP-R

      Certainly not traditional summer weather here this weekend. Without the warm background, it would've been a cool and autumnal weekend in most other summers.

  5. Thundery wintry showers

    Winter 2009/10 memories

    I spent those two winters in a mix of Norwich and South Tyneside. In South Tyneside I think the period 25 November-26 December 2010 beat the mid-December to mid-January 2009/10 spell. The spell of north-easterlies from 25 November-2 December 2010 was particularly amazing. In Norwich, however, Dec 2010 had its disappointments, notably being in the dry corridor in the north-easterly spell, and so the 2009/10 spell was the comfortable winner. Conversely, in my current location in Exeter Dec 2010 was miles ahead of the 2009/10 spell, so it does vary depending on location.
  6. Thundery wintry showers

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    Interestingly we seem to have a "warm continents cold Arctic" pattern at the moment, the inverse of what we've had in a lot of recent summers when the Arctic dipole anomaly set up and the jet stream ran further south than usual. There's quite a lot of cold air bottled up near the North Pole with 850hPa temperatures widely below -5C, which is quite unusual for mid-July, but as you suggest, not a lot of cold air around in the mid-latitudes. if we were to get a deep northerly it would probably be pretty potent for the time of year, but it would result in the mixing out of the cold air near the pole which wouldn't be good for the Arctic sea ice.
  7. Thundery wintry showers

    World Cup 2018

    I can't see how winning the World Cup would be a hollow achievement given that if we win the semi-final we'll then have to beat either France or Belgium in the final. Although if we get to the final and then get hammered by superior opposition then there will be more of a case for calling the passage to the final a hollow achievement.
  8. The GFS model must have seriously underestimated the strength of the cap this afternoon/evening. Had a spell of heavy rain this morning in Exeter with a few distant rumbles of thunder, but then when the sun came out after mid-afternoon nothing kicked off. However the Met Office rainfall forecast does have showers kicking off overnight again.
  9. Thundery wintry showers

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    The two "beasts from the east" were mainly due to a sudden stratospheric warming event. I don't think there is a link between that and the current spell of weather. It's notable though that we've retained a lot of northern blocking ever since, which has stopped the usual westerlies from taking hold. The "June return of the westerlies" this year soon saw the jet stream deflected way to the north as it approached Scandinavia, giving an Atlantic trough and displacement of the Azores High over towards the British Isles, much as kept happening in the summers of 1976 and 1995.
  10. Thundery wintry showers

    July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

    18.1C, 35.1mm.
  11. Thundery wintry showers

    Summers of the 1990s, best decade for summers for the 20th century?

    I don't think the 1990s were particularly thundery compared with previous decades (I recall Philip Eden having thunder day stats in one of his books showing that the 1990s overall were a bit down on the earlier decades) but thundery activity declined further after the 1990s in most parts of the country with certain exceptions such as the Tyne and Wear area. But yes, what thundery spells we did get were sometimes spectacular, the summers of 1994 and 1999 stick out for me here, also July 1995 (which I saw as a hotter and sunnier version of July 1994) and August 1996. I certainly agree that it was the best decade for warm dry sunny summers. I started to get into weather recording in 1993 and so got used to the 1990s summers I also remember in my childhood having numerous trips to the beach at South Shields in the summers of 1995 and to a lesser extent 1996, and not subsequently. This gave me the impression that this was what summers were normally like, so it was a shock to the system when we subsequently went into a run of cloudier wetter summers. Even 1993 in Tyneside was merely mediocre rather than poor, although the region did have a significant shortage of sunshine in summer 1998. I recall that July 1998 had a scattering of good "convective days" in the region, with homegrown showers in a westerly flow and a decent amount of sunshine in between, but also a number of cool grey days which resulted in below average sunshine overall, and in August 1998 we were generally a bit too far north to benefit from the ridging Azores High. I generally think of this run of warm/hot dry sunny summers as having started in 1989. I was only five years old at the time so I don't remember it that well, but there was definitely one summer in my early childhood when it seemed to be sunny nearly every day for a long period and the statistics from nearby Durham strongly suggest that it was that one. It's possible that I could be recalling July/early August 1990, but my hazy memories point towards a rather longer sunny spell than that. Our summers were thus off to a flying start when the 1990s came around.
  12. It probably would have been, as the north of England had significant thunderstorms on the night of the 11th/12th July 1995 and the storms were gradually moving north-east.
  13. For Friday highest pressure looks set to be centred over western and south-western Britain, although I think the GFS may be overdoing its central pressure, comparing with the UKMO and ECMWF which have it at nearer 1030mb. I expect that this will mean plenty of warm sunshine for western areas but with that northerly flow eastern areas will probably be somewhat cloudier with isolated showers, probably stratocumulus trapped underneath a cap. Not sure about the posts referencing only weak ridges of high pressure - the UKMO admittedly has rather tentative ridging with westerlies over the top of the high which would promote a north-south split, but the GFS and especially ECMWF have a high of around 1025-1028mb central pressure sitting over a large portion of the UK around days 7-10. I would expect the cloud in eastern areas to dissipate in that setup with a large majority of the country seeing warm sunshine. The latter stages of the ECMWF run look potentially hot and thundery which is an outcome that I've been envisaging for late-June for some time, although my confidence in the hot thundery scenario is waning with a good chance of the high being too strong.
  14. Thundery wintry showers

    Things that tick you off?

    Worse than that for me is being subsequently told to be a good loser: after completely thrashing the opponent only to pot the black ball with one of my own balls remaining, or go in-off when legitimately potting the black, being told to say "well played" to the opponent and acknowledge that I lost because the opponent played better.
  15. Thundery wintry showers

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    NSIDC figures indeed suggest minimal ice losses but significant drops in ice concentrations where the warm air masses have been coming in. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ It hasn't been as bad as I'd feared though, as it's happened over a relatively small area. I was envisaging possible ice losses very near the North Pole.
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