Thundery wintry showers

Long range forecast team
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Thundery wintry showers last won the day on November 12 2012

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About Thundery wintry showers

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    Cumulonimbus Incus
  • Birthday 22/06/84

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    Male
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    East Exeter, Devon
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    Weather (of course!), chess, music, computer gaming, social events, football, tenpin bowling, environmental issues
  • Weather Preferences
    Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.

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  1. 1975 and 1984 spring to mind, and 1994 was another decent example in some areas of the country. That said, I have a feeling that this year's June could well end up as another dull wet one with southerly tracking lows.
  2. Interestingly this year's sea ice anomaly distribution is much the opposite of where it was at this time in 2012, this time we have near average sea extent on the North Atlantic side, including the Barents and Kara seas, and below average extent around the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort seas. In 2012 the Barents/Kara area was the main area with abnormally low amounts of sea ice. The impending dipole anomaly pattern is likely to displace more sea ice over towards the North Atlantic side and enhance the negative anomalies in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. In the short term this may not necessarily result in big net losses because it may also help slow the rate of melt in the Atlantic sector, but in the long run it may well contribute to massive losses later in the season when the sea ice bordering North Atlantic regions breaks up and melts out, leaving, well, not much beyond the immediate vicinity of the North Pole.
  3. The GFS operational runs and ECMWF ensemble means continue to suggest a dipole anomaly pattern setting up in about 7-9 days' time with high pressure over the Arctic Ocean, which would accelerate the (recently fairly slow) rate of melt: That said, tonight's ECMWF operational run didn't go along with this, so it's not a certainty yet.
  4. Summer 1912 in Durham was pretty vile by the looks of it: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/durhamdata.txt Relative to the relatively conservative 1961-1990 period, sunshine was 46% of normal, rainfall 179% of normal and the mean max temperature was 2.4C below normal. The temperature and sunshine stats would look even bleaker compared with more recent reference periods.
  5. Arctic sea ice extent currently looking less exceptionally low according to NSIDC, creeping within 2 standard deviations of the mean: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ Despite this, though, I think the 2012 record is still potentially under serious threat, due to the continued record sea ice volume anomaly, and the emergence of large areas of low sea ice concentration around the edges of the ice sheet. I'm expecting May 2017 to have a similarly high rate of melt to May 2016, which would leave us comfortably at second lowest by the end of the month, and ahead of 2012.
  6. I think Mark Selby is a very worthy champion this year, a fitting conclusion to his dominance of the World No. 1 spot over the season. I don't think any other player would have beaten Ding Junhui in the form he was in, and also produced some outstanding shots at times.
  7. I'm hoping it will be close but I'd rather Mark Selby wins it because I think he's been the stronger player over the tournament as a whole- he was outstanding in his 13-3 thrashing of Marco Fu and I don't think any other player would have beaten Ding Junhui in that semi-final with the form Ding was in. I'm pleased for John Higgins with his return to form though. I think, though, there's a good chance that Mark Selby will win and that it won't be close.
  8. In the South Shields/Sunderland area there were sleety showers on the 18th, snow showers on the 19th but they didn't lie, and then on the early morning of the 20th the snow did lie to a depth of about 2cm, by which time showers were mostly confined to eastern areas. At Cleadon I recorded a maximum of only 3.8C on the 20th, although it was still quite marginal for lying snow with a minimum of 0.7C that day. I recall that there were reports of wintry showers from the Exeter area on the 19th and 20th also.
  9. Man Utd still need work on their attack. When teams "park the bus" against Chelsea, I generally expect Chelsea to be able to win 1 or 2-0 because of moments of quality near the end of the game. Although they've been struggling recently, I'd say the same of Arsenal this season. Man Utd haven't quite got that yet (in contrast, under Fergie, Man Utd would be launching a continuous onslaught against the opposition's goal in the last 10-15 minutes and often the opponent's defence would eventually buckle). But I do think Man Utd, despite having the same number of points as last year, are in a better position, especially having recovered from a substantial early season wobble.
  10. It would have been the 7th. Snow showers developed widely on the 6th May 1997 from a northerly, and then the wind backed to a west to north-westerly direction overnight and brought a stream of snow and hail showers into north-west England. It then turned less cold from the west with showers predominantly of rain or hail after midday.
  11. I think the "white Easters more common than white Christmasses" was a quirk which held true over most of the country between 1971 and 1992 inclusive. But it generally hasn't been the case since 1993, and it wasn't generally the case between 1950 and 1970 either, when snow fell and/or lay quite widely on Christmas Day in 1950, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1968 and 1970. In the South Shields/Sunderland area there was falling sleet/snow on Christmas Day in 1993, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2001 and 2010. Snow lay at 0900 in 1995, 2009 and 2010 and I also remember that snow lay for a while during the afternoon and evening of Christmas Day 1993. In contrast, the only white Easters were in 1998 and 2008 (both had snow falling and lying at 0900, but it soon melted). Easter Day 2013 was notably cold but with only isolated flurries. Both of the past two years have had wintry spells near the end of April, although in 2015 it was mostly confined to north-east Scotland, where there were reports of lying snow from the Aberdeen area. In 2016 snow fell quite widely between the 26th and 29th inclusive and I recall that on the 29th the Leeds city webcams showed lying snow even in the central part of the city.
  12. 9.0C
  13. Got banned from a recorder class as a result of laughing at someone playing woefully out of tune (my absolute pitch ability probably didn't help in that case!)
  14. One useful comparison point is probably the 1998 and 2015/16 El Ninos. From HadCRUT4 I get the impression that we've warmed by about 0.25C between the two El Ninos, indicating a warming trend of approximately 0.14C per decade, while from GISTEMP (which includes the Arctic and Antarctic but at the cost of using heavy interpolation) the warming is nearer 0.35C, suggesting roughly 0.2C per decade. I think all we've seen is an abrupt correction to the "pause" or "hiatus" in global warming that occurred between 1998 and 2014, which has brought us back into line with the projections of the likes of the IPCC.
  15. I was going to suggest Exeter as a candidate but Cheeky_Monkey beat me to it! It seems that around Exeter there was a raft of blanket traffic calming around 2010-2013. Traffic lights and speed cameras galore sprouted up on the major urban roads, all urban side roads got cut to 20mph (including roads that don't go through housing estates) and the vast majority of wide-open 60mph rural roads got cut to 40mph, while the little twisty side roads were left at 60mph. Villages tend to have a lot less measures of those types. I lived in Sandhutton in North Yorkshire for a couple of years and there are no traffic lights there. Nearby Thirsk has a few traffic lights but the main emphasis is on pedestrian crossings, which have tended to work well.