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Thundery wintry showers

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Thundery wintry showers last won the day on November 12 2012

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About Thundery wintry showers

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    Cumulonimbus Incus

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    Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Interests
    Weather (of course!), chess, music, computer gaming, social events, football, tenpin bowling, environmental issues
  • Weather Preferences
    Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.

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  1. Lincoln has been near the boundary of the NW-SE divide over the last few days, it was very sunny on 12 June, but 10,11 and 13 June had a fair amount of cloud at times. The 10th was the cloudiest day, though the cloud did conveniently break up during the eclipse. Overall though sunshine amounts have felt quite decent, and it's certainly been warm.
  2. Yes, the current model outputs remind me a bit of the setup of late July/early August 1994, though shifted a bit further east which could limit the overall amount of thundery activity, especially away from the SE. The GFS shows plenty of precipitation moving up off the continent but it's not clear if it will be primarily thundery in nature or more a case of "thundery rain" with frontal rain and maybe the odd rumble. July 1994 was certainly a thundery month at nearby RAF Waddington with thunder on 8 days. I recall reading that the south-west largely missed out, but the majority of cent
  3. I got lucky in Lincoln today, it's been cloudy with just the odd brighter interval, but one of these brighter intervals coincided with the eclipse.
  4. To me, the most amusing outcome would be if we get an official highest max for 13 June 2021 in the range of 29.7 to 29.9C, such that the quirky stat survives but only by the slenderest of margins. It's a possibility.
  5. I might have been one of those who enjoyed the early part of that June 2019 spell due to location - I was in Exeter at the time and I remember getting a couple of rare thunder-days out of it, including quite a potent thunderstorm on 10 June, just to the west of the main rain area, with some fork lightning to the west. (I didn't get many notable thunderstorms while I was in Exeter - occasionally I got big ones coming in off continental Europe if the surface winds were easterly and the upper winds southerly, but mostly it was just one or two rumbles). If I remember rightly it turned generally
  6. It's looking "touch and go" as to whether it survives this year. The last few ECMWF operational runs have been building a pool of hot air over south-eastern Britain, which is evident at the 500hPa level as well as 850hPa: 850hPa temperatures are forecast to be 13-14C over the south on 13 June, so we could sneak a 30 or 31C out of that I reckon. This is also supported by the latest GFS run which has 850hPa temps rather less high (11-12C) and predicts max 2m temps of 28C in the south-east.
  7. Yes, I've been noticing a lot of conflicting posts regarding sunshine, but I think a lot of it is down to location. On average the south coast of England is the sunniest part of the UK, but during this June so far many parts of central and northern England have had more sunshine than the south coast - hence sunshine being a little below normal in some southern coastal areas, but well above in many central and northern areas. (I'm not so sure about Wales or Scotland sunshine wise). I agree that it looks like flipping around as we move into an anticyclonic/south-westerly type. I look
  8. The University of Lincoln's weather station is giving 24C with 65% humidity. A couple of thunderstorms have passed nearby, one to the west which gave a few distant rumbles, and one just to the east which gave some quite loud thunder and I saw one flash of cloud-to-cloud lightning. It was mostly dull here yesterday apart from a couple of sunny intervals mixed with showers in the evening, but today has been mainly sunny so far.
  9. Thunder over Lincoln, I heard a couple of distant rumbles from a cell to the west at around 12:30, and another cell has come much closer in the past 15 minutes giving some quite loud rumbles. I haven't seen any lightning yet, though, it must be mainly cloud to cloud lightning.
  10. Showers developed over Lincoln yesterday, a couple of which were heavy, but I didn't hear any thunder. There were some more showers around 7am, when I woke up with intense cramp in my right calf. It's been sunny since 9am but there's more convection going up now, so I'll be keeping an ear out for thunder this afternoon.
  11. I note that the longer-term outlook from the models has the Atlantic trough weakening, resulting in more of an Azores High ridging pattern rather than the Euro high/Atlantic trough scenario. This would be consistent with the high pressure eventually retreating to the west and/or south, but probably not until around midmonth.
  12. The ECMWF ensemble mean at T+240 has a 1025mb high over much of the UK, which agrees strongly with NOAA's 8-14 day anomaly charts and shows a remarkably high amount of agreement at that range. The GFS 06Z is an outlier regarding sea level pressure, though as Singularity mentioned, not entirely without support. The GFS ensemble mean, though less strong than the ECMWF ensemble mean, also has high pressure persisting out to T+240: Thus a continuation of the anticyclonic theme looks probable out to 12 June at least. There are hints of the high drifting westwards but it's wo
  13. I don't have any objections to the outdoor weather which is just moderately warm, I can see why some would struggle indoors with lack of air conditioning and the house becoming a heat trap though. I remember a few days last summer when it got too hot indoors for me. Today it's 25.6C in my living room, which is acceptable, but I tend to struggle to work productively in it if it approaches 30C. The bottom line though is that you can never please everybody! That said, I imagine that the current weather is pleasing a pretty high percentage of the population.
  14. I would like to mention that April wasn't generally cloudy or drizzly though, averaged nationally it was about as sunny as last year's April and it was also very dry. There is a tendency to refer to all cold weather after an arbitrary date in March as grey and damp, probably because it isn't wanted. I can't deny that May was a dull wet month for most though, with a few autumnal depressions thrown in, notably on the first Bank Holiday Monday. It does feel as if the weather has flicked a switch into summer following nothing summer-like after the brief warm spell at the end of March (April
  15. Yes, there's evidence that our hot weather sources, particularly in north Africa, have warmed faster than the global average in the summer months (by 2 to 3C since the 1961-1990 period). If I was still living in Exeter I'd agree with that, but here in Lincolnshire those setups have a habit of bringing low cloud a fair way inland off the North Sea (early June 2013 was a good example).
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