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Tristrame

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    Arklow on the East coast of Ireland

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  1. Tbh,they haven't a clue Forecasts from met services beyond 7 days are a waste of time due to being right as often as the proverbial stopped clock Learned this year that less is known about strat influence than ever and less still about other teleconnections Certainly not enough for forecasts Even Roger Smith's seasonal forecast depended on winds from the north or east and MUCH colder than this last week Its not going to happen as planned but of course could still in the wasteland dregs of winter So yeah a lot of dishwashing I think Back to science and 7 days out only we go (or anyone with sense goes and I don't mean disrespect there because I'll still look too)
  2. Nail on the head there Its really only a circulation of the existing not that cold air You could describe it as a recycled returning northwesterly A channel low(or any low) is not a snowmaker unless it's hitting air that has all the parameters for snow Not given up on February before it's started though Lots of excitement to come I'd imagine now that strat warm has finally reached or is about to the trop Or at any rate we'll at least know at last
  3. I think the only solution to that is to set an exam for posters on weather knowledge Scores under 50% send them off to a codology thread
  4. The highs in 2012/13 were more Russian in origin than scandi iirc incarnated completely differently to whats hinted in recent runs so not comparable in my opinion Still a lot of uncertainty on the US northeaster with implications for over here so a case of wait and see tbh?
  5. NWS have the GFS and Gefs as outliers compared to the rest of the guidance on the esb storm in their forecast for the new York area late weekend Here's what they say : "This has led to a consensus of a colder solution and a track of the low further south and east than the previous forecast package. Dprog/dt on the recent deterministic runs shows this general trend well except the GFS/gefs which appear to be an outlier solution and remain much warmer than the rest of the guidance. The main energy with the southern stream wave will be coming onshore today. There is also sensitivity as noted above with the how much the polar jet interacts and phases with the southern stream, so changes in track forecast are still possible in subsequent forecast packages."
  6. I'm an hour south of Dublin,just 2 miles from the coast and only 162ft asl Last march when Emma was done we had over 2 feet of level snow and roads blocked by 8ft drifts so that kind of total here isn't impossible,I've seen it a few times in my lifetime
  7. Too much modification on a long transatlantic journey over relatively warm water would mean rain probably away from Scottish and northern hills Unless said low passed south of Ireland,in which case less modified colder air would follow from a more north northeasterly quadrant in its wake Then you'd be talking winter
  8. It’s showing temperatures up at 850 hpa height or roughly 5000ft above sea level -10 at this time of year in strong sunshine might equate to zero or 1 c on the ground its also significant as it passes over the sea the colder it is relative to sea surface temps and the longer the track the more and the heavier showers you get You’d need a minimum of a 13c difference and preferably greater than a 50 miles sea track
  9. I’ve a cue,a vantage pro 2 and now a brand new wmr 300 I’m really liking the wmr so far its performing every bit as good as the Davis and looks the exact same In 14 years of having the vantage pro 2,I’ve never had to call customer service In the photo the anemometer is attached to the remains of an old oak tree (brought down by Storm Darwin a few years ago :/) No signal issues so far (as some online reviews seem to mention) I’ll keep you posted
  10. Three UK have free roaming in the U.S including Data even on pay as you go http://www.three.co.uk/Discover/Phones/Feel_At_Home#savingsCalculator
  11. Is the reed switch difficult to replace on the rain gauge?
  12. At last got it yesterday Painless enough swapping over and everything is working correctly now,it's solved the problem \0/
  13. It's still in Heathrow Rang Irish post office and they have not received it Quite maddening!
  14. Last night near Aughavanagh co Wicklow circa 200 to 300 mtrs asl @Rocheydub only about 30 miles south of where you currently live
  15. Well I ordered the part and incredibly it's been in Heathrows parcel depot for the past 48 hrs without moving Its been scanned twice there first at 1am wenesday night and again at 1241 today The Irish post office could see todays scan but it's not on Royal mails track and trace Typical Its not India it's going to but it feels like it
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