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Jan 87

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Everything posted by Jan 87

  1. Jan 87
    Most likely an outlier, I dont think the next phase of strat warming will kick in that fast
  2. Jan 87
    Check out the GFS 12z. Where the hell did this come from?
  3. Jan 87
    Perhaps signs of retrogression on the 06z, may end up like GEM
  4. Jan 87
    And some cold air to tap into if a block does set up in the right place
  5. Jan 87
    Nice control run
  6. Jan 87
    Could be fair play to that long ranger METO forecast from late December when we were looking for straws to clutch
  7. Jan 87
    main GFS not bad at day 10
  8. Jan 87
    pert 16 also another possible outcome
  9. Jan 87
    a fair few of the GEFS have those greeny heights and keep us on the cold side of the jet. this is a good one
  10. Jan 87
    GFS still persisting with the greeny heights. doesnt really help us yet of course, but who knows down the line
  11. Jan 87
    Indeed. We maybe just p"ssing in the wind, but GFS op and control and fair few GEFS still build a wedge over greenland, other models do not. Until it comes into line, there remains some hope for a more positive outlook
  12. Jan 87
    Probably, but if its true that it handles the crucial area better than others, then its possible though unlikely the other models will back down. At least both the op and control and a lot of the GEFS built the block. We await the pub run with greater anticipation than usual!
  13. Jan 87
    It all depends on that system coming out of north America. GFS still keen on building some sort of ridge that is sustained for a while, others are not. lets see if its still there on the 18z
  14. Jan 87
    just look at the range of options on the GEFS at 120. With so much uncertainty at close range, nothing can be ruled out. But Scotland is looking favourable for a pasting, in London probably wet but there is still hope
  15. Jan 87
    typical You get a good GFS and then GEM goes pete tong! Lets hope for cold option from ECM later
  16. Jan 87
    Looks the same as the control run of the 06z
  17. Jan 87
    snow or rain event on xmas day on the control The old M4 corridor again!
  18. Jan 87
    something like pert 14 is what we need to see longer term.
  19. Jan 87
    control is better. no point looking beyond xmas at this stage
  20. Jan 87
    the ops always seem to the mildest option. Perhaps the lower res ens are not to be trusted, but we can only hope its a case of the ens leading the way. GEM op and control are encouraging in terms of clearing the trough quickly, it has been consistent ICON 06z looks much better than the mornings run, shame we cant see what happens next
  21. Jan 87
    The original "winter of discontent" Interesting how the weather pattern is so far very similar! Let hope the trend continues as it was a great winter even if the country was in mess, as it is now!
  22. Jan 87
    Sorry if someone already posted the blonde model, but its not bad
  23. Jan 87
    Ens mean for Xmas day similar to GFS Shame we got another mild op, or the mood would be much better here. But we need those heights in Europe to drain away
  24. Jan 87
    That is pretty good considering how poor the op and control end up I suspect this wont be resolved for another few days
  25. Jan 87
    GFS control looks perhaps what UKMO would show later Nice Christmas for us all, but who knows with all the chopping and changing
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