bluearmy

I can’t see Thursdays system correcting v far south unless the phasing in the Atlantic changes significantly. As this is only day 3/4 I’m afraid those hoping for a notable correction south are likely to be disappointed. Still a day for a wtf moment but it’s a long shot

Harsh Climate I don’t think there will be much of a lag HC. The 12z gfs op is notable because it has a split spv segment over griceland with an upper trop ridge there. There have been signs on recent ops that we could see a split with a left over Atlantic segment which isn’t ideal for us unless we have a strong block to our north (possible) id expect the trop and strat to take on the same appearance within a few days of the reversal pattern. Of course we are currently likely seeing downwelling waves from first half January warming and if we get a notable reversal in two weeks then expect march to stay blocked much of the time

If gfs op dropped the fascination with snowfall from attempt one then we’d be a lot less excited in here. We should learn from experience that gfs op is not the model you want in your back pocket when it’s fairly isolated. we can wait till Mondays 00z runs to draw the curtains on attempt one south of the M62 the cold flow to follow is uncertain re depth of cold and instability then we look to hemispheric pattern changes and if we don’t get a sig cold spell with snowfall by the end of feb then we are truly unlucky Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5028606

Anthony Burden based on yesterdays 12z run and we know that took it ne across the country by day 6/7. To this point, ec op has been the most consistent model on this low (which is a shame)

If gfs op dropped the fascination with snowfall from attempt one then we’d be a lot less excited in here. We should learn from experience that gfs op is not the model you want in your back pocket when it’s fairly isolated. we can wait till Mondays 00z runs to draw the curtains on attempt one south of the M62 the cold flow to follow is uncertain re depth of cold and instability then we look to hemispheric pattern changes and if we don’t get a sig cold spell with snowfall by the end of feb then we are truly unlucky

Mike Poole are the red borders always scandi blocks Mike ??

Good question with only 20 members, the mean tends to be more definitive. But if it has the correct solution this means thee are likely less incorrect members to dilute the mean as often happens with the eps. In general, if the geps mean isn’t interested in a solution then I tend to wait for it to catch up before having any confidence.

I wouldn’t over expect from attempt one but still a fair chance. The 12z’s haven’t been great thus far

northwestsnow ec46 seven day showing interest starts from 12th/19th seven day period. Atm we can’t see beyond 9th/16th on the ens. Geps already looks in line with the ec46 on this timescale. Gefs and eps getting there. Not sure Torquay hotel window etc etc ….

Surprised you like it that much

northwestsnow not sure what you’re expecting form a ten day outlook NWS ? they cover the precip later next week with snowfall on n edge. Then they cover the cold nw flow to follow. Then they go with a cool high beyond that. In feb the solar input makes that tough to be overly cold. Looks like a broad brush approach given the uncertainty.

Ali1977 that’s not how it works Ali

Pembroke Dangler don’t see this system in that way atm - January was an Azores low escaping ne and fighting against the northerly. This system is different but still is some way from pinning down ref wedges, northerly and the phasing which will dictate how much it deepens. It could be that it disrupts and the second system is the one that hits. Could also run straight through n England. very uncertain indeed.

Pembroke Dangler yep not worth analysis at day 6 yet but would be nice to start seeing the envelope narrow down

Met4Cast looking through the stamps NH profile, I wouldn’t wonder about clusters too much 06z control further south

Way too complex a scenario for the nwp to suss out atm two bites at the cherry next week Thereafter still looking like Atlantic ridge and sceuro trough although the atlantic ridge is further east on the eps than ideal geps the best by day 15/16 events in the strat may have Aaron back soon - signs of a displacement followed by split and the momentum from gfs is for that split to be pretty much all on the Asian side. With a strongly coupled strat/trop profile - seen today on the gfs back end . Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5027872

Way too complex a scenario for the nwp to suss out atm two bites at the cherry next week Thereafter still looking like Atlantic ridge and sceuro trough although the atlantic ridge is further east on the eps than ideal geps the best by day 15/16 events in the strat may have Aaron back soon - signs of a displacement followed by split and the momentum from gfs is for that split to be pretty much all on the Asian side. With a strongly coupled strat/trop profile - seen today on the gfs back end .

Ali1977 needs to a fair way further south than though - does the ridge to our south have anywhere to go ?

Nothing obvious to derail the direction of travel at this time although still unsure if we arrive via an A road, motorway or single lane track

Gfs 06z and 12z have shown tech reversals via displacements ec46 doesn’t really look like it’s got enough momentum to go full blown tech ssw reversal based on that past few runs. You’d expect more members to be going negative imo

nick sussex the majority need one of your analogies nick! sometimes the macro is coming irrespective of the micro before hand my fear is we can’t advect deep enough cold into a very good pattern - in mid feb that maybe a frustrating scenario for southern half of the U.K. developments in the strat are a new element into the mix and you wouldn’t discount a repeat of the January scenario where upwelling split leads to excellent coupled strat trop profile before the upper strat decides to put humpty back together again routed across the n altantic.

feb1991blizzard it’s a tough crowd feb ! stick with it if the first attempt fails because the wedge doesn’t stick then I think the second will make it via Atlantic ridge Scotland looks to have every chance of going cold by end next week and staying cold and wintry

Could be that we are looking at a tech reversal around 18/20th feb via a stretch and split

A lot more disturbed tpv output for day 15 on the 00z eps than previous suites whilst the ops may be unconvincing, the latest ens across all three main models are showing nw euro/sceuro troughing end week 2 which is pushed south into France We just need a mechanism to get cold to our east and southeast. An amplified Atlantic ridge over or east of Greenland - or anywhere east to scandi would be helpful but currently not really showing with any consistency.

@northwestsnow was very little support for the wedge solution yesterday. Even the fi NH profile is on another street this morning. Ec has made a bit of a mess upstream with the east American trough. That doesn’t mean the other models were a lot better but they certainly werent as wrong as ec op has been on it probably why the eps haven’t been of much interest