Jump to content


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. like MWB, I see the strongest heat risk first weekend august onwards
  2. Fwiw, latest ec46 maintains generally settled conditions throughout August. Temps stay above average. Lower than average affecting w and s Iberia and se Europe which is also wetter than average. Scandi stays warm and dry. Obviously this is averaged out mean data. The uk prone to troughs trying to edge in from the west from time to time as would be expected. No sign on this model of any deviation from what the telecons have been signaling. No surprise UU have brought in a hosepipe ban from the fifth - perhaps they were waiting for this latest run for final guidance.
  3. Given that the raw ec maxes are 30/31 days 8-10 (add a couple of degrees onto that ), one wonders what an injection of even higher 850’s would achieve ......
  4. The nwp currently headed towards where many expected us to go last third July which is renewed sceuro upper ridge and Atlantic trough. Will this become as sustained as it was late April to mid June. and where will the uk sit within that trough/ridge set up - presumably it will drift east and west at times as it did throughout that six weeks or so. (Not the uk )
  5. The injection of Chris into the n Atlantic basin has certainly provided us with some nwp entertainment - something to bear in mind once the next we’ll developed ex TD arrives on the scene ............
  6. We seem to have seen the far end of the troughy pendulum swing and are no way drifting back - how far can the swing back go?
  7. because the day 8 chart is more likely to verify than the ones that follow ???
  8. The direction of travel into next weekend is pretty clear at the moment - time for it to revert back to something less unsettled but we haven’t yet reached the far end of the pendulum swing .........
  9. The extended ens means are showing increasing high anomalies just to our east and low to our sw. However, they also show a swathe of low hpa anomalies from Ireland across to Russia at the same time
  10. Just a cautionary note that highish height anomalies do not necessarily mean high slp. could see a spell where we have relatively high heights but lowish slp which would be defo be thundery given the time of year.
  11. Ec developing cut off low west of Iberia and also se Europe is consistent with extended mean modelling from ec 45 over the past few runs for late July and into august - repeating plumes for nw Europe if we keep the trough far enough west ?? however, this modelling (and eps) want to drop SLp across Europe and the eastern Atlantic in general (with Atlantic trough/scrussian ridge) - whatever transpires it looks warmer than average.
  12. Maybe they’re just very consistent!!!! (Which can’t be true Sunday to Monday as pure naefs moves on to take in eps data)
  13. I just checked my calendar and it’s the 8th ............ the extended modelling on the eps is becoming consistently upper troughy headed into the last third of the month. Worst the further nw as per usual.
  14. Looking into the extended and August I would look back and note semi permanent sceuro upper ridge which saw us through late April, May and into early June (where we had upper lows diving into Iberia and promoting repeated plumes across nw Europe ) models wanted to retrogress this upper ridge to sit to our west. A few on here wondered if that was a bit too far and the possibility that it could sit over nw Europe. This is what has happened with the systems generally going around the top and bringing some respite from the heat to Scandinavia (certainly the eastern part). now we see the extended euro modelling wanting to drift back to the sceuro upper ridge last third July and beyond. I am a bit sceptical on this if the background in the Pacific is changing although seasonal wavelength changes may mean it is different but looks pretty similar .... perhaps more scandi ridge than sceuro ridge. i dont see August being the same as second half June and first half July ....... not as settled. could stay hot though more squeaky bum as we edge closer to an Atlantic upper trough.
  15. Extended eps clusters continue with one option. As has been mused already, one cluster tends to increase the uncertainty around the solution
  16. Having viewed the last three eps clusters in the extended period, they were more useful when we couldn't see them !!!
  17. Eps clusters are back and best to wait for a few suites to get some continuity into context
  18. Annoying to have lost the eps clusters for the past three runs ..........
  19. extended ens modelling keeps high anomalies across nw Europe but nw Russian low anomolys begin to spread slowly sw by the end of week 2. Does this lock in the upper ridge in our vicinity rather than allowing it to migrate east ?
  20. The eps clusters days 8/10 onwards continue to look a bit more mobile but we’ve seen the extended outlook quite wrong several times already this spring/summer. Note the ec 45 is pretty troughy last third July and beyond. First time I’ve seen this outlook so Monday nights forecast awaited with much interest.
  21. Ec idea of the upper trough having a say in the 8/10 day period well supported in the clusters yesterday. I wondered if it was a one off suite but seems not. Question would be how high heights manage to stay across the uk.
  22. Ec op day 10 is with the control run cluster from the 00z eps (was just the largest cluster) . heights still higher than average though
  23. That level of temp in this country is really not ‘ good ‘ ...............