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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. Every autumn we have the chasing of early season cold and away from the north and higher ground it is generally a waste of energy and time ! Patience is a virtue and the ec46 seems consistent with the height rises to our north and northeast through November with subsequent low surfer temps to our east in general the consequence. Ours recover slowly as the mean flow across w Europe becomes less continental from the east and more from the south as the Scandinavian high becomes more sceuro in time. The story of November would seem to be the lack of precipitation in n and e Europe whilst frost and fog are likely to be prevalent. the pattern is currently heading where most seasonal forecasts said it would ..... as Claudio once said .... 40 points, 40 points !!! No need to get ahead of ourselves looking for winter in late October ......
  2. bluearmy

    Winter 2018/19

    This was Septembers ens mean and I believe October isn’t much changed
  3. Note on that 8/14 day naefs anomaly (Fits well with eps) the gulf Alaska low, west N American ridge and east n American trough (all upper features) - this is apparently what the first part of winter holds upstream - our side of the Atlantic, as always, more difficult to predict!
  4. bluearmy

    Winter 2018/19

    Already seeing a gulf of Alaska low setting up on the extended ens with a resultant w USA upper ridge and downstream troughs for e USA and Scandinavia/Europe sometimes, October patterns portent what lies ahead ........ and sometimes they don’t !!
  5. bluearmy

    Winter 2018/19

    could hide a pretty wintry December in there ...... then I read a post further down ...... we already know ec seasonal is front loaded so those charts could simply be hiding a winter of stark contrasts
  6. I think that the point about the ec 46 is more that it’s broadly fitting with what the seasonal model has been showing for the run into winter.
  7. bluearmy

    Winter 2018/19

    Just how it should be - cold winter and a proper spring !
  8. bluearmy

    horse racing

    i think there should be a dedicated thread for all things horse racing. cheltenham approaches and then we have the new flat season. on that subject, sad news that the 1000 guinneas favourite, Chrisellium, was put down last week after failing to recover from a foot infection. Only a few months after connections had stood with Bo Derek after winning the Breeders Cup for juvenile fillies, their year is ripped apart. i guess thats sport but must be so difficult to take. lets hope for some better news in this thread ......................
  9. More runs driving that southerly flow well into the arctic in our part of the NH - I’m thinking that’s good for preventing the strat vortex getting it’s act together
  10. and interestingly ec mean is similar
  11. I come on here to note the interesting gfs and gfsp week 2 from a coldie perspective (re repeating patterns and long range seasonals fitting this broad evolution ) whilst others see the warmth as the building scandi ridge pulls up a temporary southerly flow. Last ec46 was big on a scandi ridge for the first half of Nov
  12. meteociel and others are reproducing the free data only. if this data is behind paywall then it wont be available for the majority
  13. There’s nowt as frustrating for a coldie as a west based neg NAO ......
  14. bluearmy

    Typhoon mangkhut

    Will soon strike the Mariana islands but I’m looking at the modelling taking the strengthening storm into the South China Sea and potentially the highly populated region around Hong Kong in about a week. If lucky, the n of the Philippines and s China coast will just escape.
  15. Pretty sure that our extended warm period is now at an end ....... and expect a taste of late autumn/perhaps early winter week 2/3. Latest ec46 has Europe T2 below average throughout.
  16. Just saw a tweet from yesterday showing CFSV2 forecast for first week October has an anomously weak westerly flow at 10mb ……. now this is the CFSV2 but stuck clocks are right twice a day and we aren't talking too far ahead in any case …...analogues with 2009 would I think tie in with a very weak zonal flow at the beginning of the season
  17. bluearmy

    Hurricane Helene

    Actually noticed that she has her own thread in the Atlantic storm section so I expect this thread to become dormant.
  18. bluearmy

    Hurricane Helene

    discussion on Helene should surely go into the MOD now?
  19. bluearmy

    Typhoon mangkhut

    The only positive I can think of is it’s sunday so people won’t be tempted to go to work and risk their safety travelling. the storm expected to make landfall few hundred miles west of Hong Kong - there are some very populated cities along the coast and I doubt local building regs have been complied with in many cases .........
  20. bluearmy

    Typhoon mangkhut

    Looks like Mangkhut gets close enough to HK tomorrow to bring several hours of hurricane force winds. given the densely populated nature of the city and plentiful skyscrapers, I expect will be a pretty scary period for the authorities and locals. (Plus tourists).
  21. bluearmy

    Hurricane Florence

    Understatement of the year award goes to ........................ the storm is moving v slowly and the coast is not straight n/s or e/w .......... going to see some pretty awful videos over the next 36/48 hours ........
  22. bluearmy

    Hurricane Florence

    Gfs proving as useful as an umbrella on Wilmington high street ....... roll on GFSP going live .......
  23. bluearmy

    Typhoon mangkhut

    First ec run for a while which spares Hong Kong ..... the central pressure of mangkhut approaching landfall n philipinnes is 906 mb and max wind gust 169 knots, 133 mph sustained ........
  24. bluearmy

    Hurricane Florence

    still think the issue is flooding and each run seems to be reducing how far inland the heaviest rains get and the ridiculous amounts become more isolated. with the lack of steering, I guess it’s feasible that each new run could come up with a larger variation on the theme. the current trend of Florence stalling just off the coast and drifting sw is a better solution than a day or so ago looked although this assumes that the entire coastal strip of South Carolina and half of n Carolina can cope with a foot or so of rainfall
  25. bluearmy

    Hurricane Florence

    Ec drops slp to 938 mb this evening before it slowly rises into 950’s as it approaches the coast. crucial frames now to see how the stall is handled
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