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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. Summing up the 10/14 day period fridays 12z eps post day 10 = 1 cluster following run post day 10 = 5 clusters
  2. the semi permanent sceuro ridge now lost and more mobile pattern established. As others have mused - is this going to become the form horse for the next four/six weeks or will we see a reversion to the sceuro ridge/Atlantic trough ? the models seem unsure in the 6/10 day period which way is best to go - the eps only with one extended cluster on the 12z run is unhelpful for the 10/14 day term and perhaps that entire suite (with the v warm op run not particularly well supported) is less reliable than might be hoped. the theme of summer remains generally excellent (this less settled period we are currently in is hardly dire countrywide) but what July might have in store ..............
  3. Just as too much faith shouldn’t be placed in the 12z from yesterday, neither should it be in the 00z from today. However, given what we’ve seen thus far this spring, you would tend to lean closer to the 00z having more right than the12z’s
  4. Whilst there remains the probability that nw Europe becomes troughy in the 6/10 day period, the overnight runs remind us that the broad status quo default pattern is also on the table. should the latter verify, it will be a remarkably stable pattern that has ruled the roost for two months or maybe even more. should be noted that even if the less pleasant extended eps pattern that is referred in an earlier post verifies, sceuro area remains above average with upper ridge and the trough across nw Europe (rather than Iberia or France) is pretty much a variation on a theme
  5. So the sceuro trough was progged to retrogresss west and potentially become east Atlantic based with a W Russian trough edging west into Scandinavia. I did caution over analysis on this. Whilst we do see a scrussian trough appear next week, it seems that the extended modelling is retreating away from a pattern change with the sceuro ridge re establishing
  6. Pretty happy with my nowcast from mid morning today - shame the met boys couldn’t get the message out there. The bbc web page was spouting about amber warnings for this afternoon. Hope it didn’t put people off getting out and about.
  7. I need some convincing that storms are going to be anything like as widespread as yesterday. With the large cloud cover inhibiting temperatures over the majority of England, convergence zones also look limited, judging by the current windflow chart.
  8. Well you are ........just suffering with an onshore flow. Plenty of people have missed out aswell. Looks like the week ahead has more still to come!
  9. When was the last time we found ourselves under a continental type thundery plume for several days ?
  10. At the moment a line just north of London heading nw into the W midlands begins to develop - some weak showers early this afternoon blossomed into significantly storms as they headed nw. No reason to believe that this won’t happen again this evening. Not sure what will happen south of this as cloud amounts/height currently not notable.
  11. I should also have pointed out that the weekend cpc anomoly is purely naefs with no eps taken into account - be interesting to see how different the 6/10 is this evening
  12. Take care with that anomaly upper heights chart - its a five day average and the high heights push ne from the azores (hence the mean chart showing so far west) so plenty of opportunity for the surface ridge to settle in an advantageous place to advect a hot se flow for a couple days. as MWB notes, the future remains threateningly retrogressive though still no analysis how sustained this could be, nor how far west the mean upper ridge settles.
  13. The period post week two continues to drift with a retrogressive lw pattern. The sceuro ridge being replaced by a nw Russian upper trough and the upper ridge becomes more e Atlantic/nw Europe/Iceland based. that’s a big call given how long the sceuro ridge has reigned supreme these past few months - best left to see if it continues to be the trend - would certainly help the boys in russia next month!
  14. Yes MWB, the persistent sceuro upper ridge has been the story thus far and the pretty decent may we have had was well forecast on the back of this. not convinced that this sustains going forward into June with the pattern seeming to edge further west. Analysis of that can wait until it firms up
  15. 3 consec eps cluster runs have now failed from Icelandic metoffice site. Hope it’s just a data glitch.
  16. Gfs modelling picking up on a possible GOM hurricane in the 10/14 day period. is that a tad early ??
  17. The upper sceuro ridge remains the main player and it’s interaction with the systems heading in from the Atlantic continue to cause issues, run to run. one would expect that as the spring progresses towards summer, the Atlantic systems will lose some of their oomph (technical term ) and that upper ridge will edge further west in general.
  18. Pattern continues as expected with sceuro ridge building and lw trough ejection se towards Iberia. Question then becomes whether this trough becomes cut off and then is able to escape ne across nw Europe just to our se or cut off and meander around sw Europe. Alternatively it may not cut off and swing ne across w uk. Rinse and repeat.
  19. The background spring pattern of building sceuro heights and dropping the lw upper trough towards Iberia promises a typical British summer of three fine days and a thunderstorm!
  20. Even the ec46 is warmer than previous runs have been ! Could be a broadly pleasant May on the cards .........
  21. Ec op in broad agreement! Dew points above zero but T2 mid to upper thirties most of the day and with heavy precip there looks to be a decent chance of snowfall on the hills in central southern England! Will change run to run (the 00z ec op had significant accums across Kent and Suffolk) but this run dumps accumulated snowlfall of a foot across the chilterns and Salisbury plain.
  22. My musings that things may not turn out as bad as they looked like doing were amiss - however, what does seem to be a recurring theme of the spring is for troughs to be ejected se from the vortex to our nw and for a plume to be pushed north across e Europe as a ridge is thrown up ahead of the digging upper trough. We saw this pattern back west with the ‘heatwave’ earlier in the month and there is no reason to think that this won’t happen again if the overall pattern continues to repeat. Whilst the short term looks miserable, I’m not too disheartened re the 10/20 day period.
  23. maybe the upper trough nestling over the uk isn’t a done deal as seemed the case on the means and ops from yesterday ........ it wouldn’t take much of a shift in current model trends for us to creep into a warmer continental flow again .......
  24. Keep watching for the upper troughs to drop west of the uk - it was the theme of the 00z ec spreads