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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. No upgrade for the gefs ....... The story seems to be that the deepish upper troughing that has plagued much of the spring will go but whilst there will be a general rise in thicknesses (and therefore temps), I don’t see any convincing evidence that the upper lows will disappear so warm rain possible I/o the cold stuff we’ve been having ......
  2. do I smell a change in the offing as we head into the final third of June ????. greeny heights may be about to finally ‘do one’ .....or is it just a temporary reprieve ????
  3. Anyone noticed recently how often extended extended ecm and gem are in sync ?
  4. Haven’t been on here for a while ..... is the cfs still a model ?? Should have been retired a long time ago !! The 00z eps were cooler though not as much as I expected
  5. Yesterday’s 12z eps suite was erring towards the warm side, looks like the 00z version will be to the cooler .... place your bets for the back end of week 2 yesterdays 12z - will post the 00z version later
  6. metoffice ap says less than 5% chance precip but it’s raining
  7. Seriously ..... I mean it’s bloody April ..... where the hell were you two months ago - decent neg AO/NAO combo.... not too late for a mid April wintry surprise across n England - we had one a few years ago and it was definitely memorable in the hills.
  8. Long range forecasts generally show mean height anomolys as their predictive tool for us who don’t have access to more detail than that for nw Europe to be cold, that requires either a decent scandi high anom in tandem with a euro trough or a high anom to our nw/n without a w euro high anomoly of any kind The size of the anoms is important. Given the usual greeny heights are low, you need a big high anom to show persistent decent blocking up there and the opposite for Europe. i just think that we see the Lr charts and the oranges/blues in places we would like them to appear and make dodgy deductions on the back of them. add to that the output isn’t very reliable anyway and you have a recipe for over exuberance on forums like this! having said that, we will look at the monthly anoms for winter in a weeks time and perhaps see that we just didn’t get the luck - again.
  9. I’m not sure about the change to the met office website ......the bit I’m really unsure about is the written forecast which is still based on Thursday start point ..........
  10. Given the polar profile at day 6, it would be surprising not to see some wintry week 2 members in the ens. However, the ops and means are not interested in making anything of the potential split so I would expect the drift into unsettled, cooler and mobile late next week to continue
  11. Given that the MJO analogues aren’t reflected in the output trop pattern through phases 7/8/1, why do you think the MJO being in non HLB phases will preclude them actually verifying?? The MJO has been a poor forecasting tool thus far this winter .....especially so since the SSW - I don’t see why things should change now ........
  12. The nwp ops are headed to a possible NH split around day 10/12. If this begins to gain traction, then all bets are off as the month turns ........
  13. some interest on the 12 gefs days 14/16 …….. i only comment because its the 12z suite rather than the 06z which has tended to be the more wintry one over the past couple months
  14. There has never been any appetite to split the flow effectively to our south and drive any low heights into Iberia and France, save the odd weak piece of brief upper troughing
  15. The ridge has shown signs of lessening a few days ago, only to come back again ....... I wonder if later week 2 will indeed see its demise ....
  16. Not sure what went wrong but here is the mean slp for the period
  17. Weeks 3 and 4 - why not? Now noaa is working again, I may do a verification on anoms for jan and first half feb on the focussed thread. I wouldn’t think weeks 3 and 4 will be too bad
  18. The av T2’s over n America are well above average thus far our issue in nw Europe is the failure of the euro trough to verity. When it was there we were cold ...... with no strong HLB, a Euro trough is required
  19. Viewing the mean heights rather than the anoms is a little more revealing
  20. You need to back up a statement with something mild is the form horse in this country you aren’t adding anything to the thread by just making a bland (sorry Tim) comment why will mild persist? I would like to understand your thought process? As far a people on here being decided is concerned, I don’t see anyone putting forward any reasoning for it to become cold enough for snowfall ..... for the time being of course .....
  21. The fact we are rescued to posting individual gefs members indicates the level of desperation..... clusters more interesting btw ......
  22. So the nwp is nothing like phase 8 analogue ! No change for the winter thus far for the MJO !
  23. A little less enthusiasm for the flatter solution in the extended eps - expect the clusters to remain broadly as they were yesterday evening though look for the griceland ridge anomoly to perhaps be a little bigger in percentage terms
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