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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. The broad pattern cannot see the micro ......but over a period of several weeks, it will be right on occasions. That’s why I remain totally confident that this is a blip.
  2. The ec clusters say that the upcoming run could easily be more than interesting. Icon goes on a route which was visible on the ec spreads, Ukmo goes on a tangent and gem seems to be happy with the scandi high it built earlier. But my advise would be to expect nothing and you won’t be disappointed.......... days 7/10 should be an improvement on the 00z run but that will just empower the ‘jam tomorrow ‘ brigade (and who can blame them!)
  3. Arctic highs ...... how many times do we need telling they aren’t well modelled ???? Anyway, it is a blip because the broad overall pattern is unlikely to change
  4. Ec again the model to take most note of .......doesn’t mean it’s always right cos it isn’t. It can have a bad run pre day 5/6 like all of them but unless you have ecm on board, never count your chickens ......no easterly. Similarly, I would always want Ukmo day 5 on my side. Question is, how short can this Azores ridge blip be ???
  5. Sorry shaky but it won’t make any difference ...... if you want to make an observation at T60, the jet is slightly east than it was on the 06z, so no gfs miracle on Tuesdays system
  6. To be honest, it would make more sense to me if it did within the current pattern ....a toned down version of the Tuesday feature
  7. By 6:30 pm we will have seen all of the ops ....safe to say that by 4 pm, there could be despair on here if we lose the Ukmo. I would expect the Ukmo to drift towards the ec solution but only a little. There is likely a middle ground area we will coverage on between the progressive ec and the slow Ukmo.....gfs will probably oscillate within an envelope ......I’m not expecting much from this initial spell snow wise as the nor’easter will e fairly short lived affair as the ridge pushes in and the euro trough fails to sustain with enough intensity
  8. As already referenced, the extended ens are not really changing .....the questions relate to the period days 5/11. We don’t have any visibility of mogreps. Glosea is a model which deals with the period post week 2
  9. It’s not the metoffice thread but clear that their thinking is leaning more to the euro trough being suppressed further south .......that’s a little away from the eps mean which is very troughy as are the clusters .... perhaps we are drifting to a cold slack trough but again not sure that fits the wording ...... my point being that the whole outlook remains uncertain for detail but cold and possibly very cold
  10. Moreso than previous .... euro trough ??????.not close enough by the look of it on that
  11. It’s potentially a three or four day less cold blip ..... the overall pattern hasn’t shifted
  12. They were based on output which is over 24 hours old rob the 8/14 dayer still looks reasonable - it’s the 6/10 which is out
  13. The gefs mean a downgrade .... still enough members to hang something on though
  14. The form horse currently looking like it wins on both scores....wish washy scandi heights and short lived Euro trough ........but not beyond salvation just yet .......
  15. It’s ‘dire’ if we cant get the snow then at least let’s get the grammar right .........
  16. Funnily enough, the clusters offer some solace ....... there is one of the main two (37%) which is very Ukmo ...the op cluster is by far the smallest in the important timeframes - by day 8 we are paying sinking the trough across us again
  17. The small margins identified yesterday evening are magnified now ....but they remain small margins ...... for the time being ....by tomorrow they won’t exist - in either direction re this particular spell !
  18. This model run is fiddling around in the mid term having taken on the new trends in the short ...... not worth analysis
  19. Impressive ...... especially as these charts tend to overdo it (that’s sarcasm btw)
  20. The wedge to our east a little stronger which delivers the 50/100 mile correction west ....will see if that holds further into the run as Atlantic amplification not really affected at this stage
  21. Did you notice the eps going more convincingly neg on the AO/NAO towrads the turn of the month ...gefs still solidly so ..........
  22. I think we had a situation last winter where we had model disagreement down to T72 ........ and the result was a blend of the modelling because it did tend closer together T90/T84....if that’s the case then will probably be messy and cold (which will be white with altitude and latitude)
  23. Icon drifts to the middle ground and more in line with the ec spreads ...... so much better than it consolidating on the flatter solution ....incidentally, I hope you have a crap day between noon and two thirty ..........
  24. The mean at T300 less reliable though ............ the trough remains deep