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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    earlier on the last two op runs tony. by day 9/10.
  2. bluearmy
    Well, anything over gfs works anyway! FWIW, glosea was developed with the strat in mind and ecm op has excellent horizontal resolution in the upper strat no idea re mogreps-15
  3. bluearmy
    Need to bear in mind that all the models go up to the upper reaches of the strat in the same single dynamic representation They all ‘take the strat into account’ as it’s part of the same model run! They may, however, not be so good at modelling an SSW and it’s possible quick downwelling I suspect the ec op should be the best on this high up so the Berlin zonal windflow charts should give us a good idea of what’s happening
  4. bluearmy
    Did they offer a 13 day service under met Office control ?
  5. bluearmy
    Meteogroup now responsible for beeb online content - where are they getting the data for the 14 day automatic output ?? ( and more importantly who sanctioned such nonsense?)
  6. bluearmy
    Just waiting to see the AO/NAO from that ens suite the trend from the 00z suites was pretty clear and looking to see if subsequent runs firm up further EDIT: nothing dramatic but the spread shrinking further approaching the 18th on a neg AO/NAO combo
  7. bluearmy
    Given the issues of strat/trop coupling and the modelling of the strat being at lower res with less layers, I think we need to be circumspect re nwp for later next week and beyond
  8. bluearmy
    Extended Eps beginning to look more w euro trough whIch isn’t the best to advect cold west
  9. bluearmy
    The gefs zonal mean continues to show little sign of any flow reversal in the trop. Some members are certainly there or there abouts. Take into accont that the lowish res of the gefs in the strat maybe not such a good indicator of downwelling events
  10. bluearmy
    More importantly, it confirms fergies tweet from earlier so these are indeed ecmwf clusters and there really is only one post day 11! Probably a fair spread around it but one cluster
  11. bluearmy
    I also think it’s easier to see the ‘blocked’ evolution on the 6hour gfs frames than the ecm 24 hour ones - always looks a bit more extreme (whichever direction the models are headed)
  12. bluearmy
    Excellent - a chance to check if the Icelandic clusters are indeed from ecmwf or possibly icelandic met office generated
  13. bluearmy
    That chart was the gefs mean 12z the ec op for today will be available on Berlin during the wee small hours the next couple of days will show us how ec op sees any initial downwelling (or not) also, no way will ec op show any response to the ssw yet. It’s progged around day 9. a quick response would show for our latitude approx days 12/15
  14. bluearmy
    Cfs says a cold month ahead - blow torch around the corner then .........
  15. bluearmy
    Quick trop response
  16. bluearmy
    The gefs mean doesn’t show much appetite for a qtr. of course it still a fair way away
  17. bluearmy
    There are several gefs members showing a qtr where we see a neg AO and some HLB suddenly establishing
  18. bluearmy
    If anyone can say otherwise , would love to hear but I don’t see the evolution of that gfs op to be a typical qtr - simply a consequence of the zonal flow slackening further down and allowing some amplification.
  19. bluearmy
    With the ‘warm sectors’ still evident, I suspect most will end up watching week 2 with more interest than week 1
  20. bluearmy
    It’s certainly showing positive around 12th But there is a clear direction of travel post SSW
  21. bluearmy
    It will be 6c at the top of the steps to Oxford Circus tube station
  22. bluearmy
    Fi gfs resembling the forecast upper strat profile as week 2 progresses question is how mobile things actually get prior to this solution (assuming you accept this is a feasible direction of travel for mid month )
  23. bluearmy
    The extended clusters are pretty useless this morning, showing just the one however, not surprisingly it fits nicely with the jet chart I showed earlier
  24. bluearmy
    A look at the mean jet for days 10 and 15 show where the trend is - note how far west the splitting of the jet occurs by day 15 and the change of the shape of the flow. How the flow over the top of Scandinavia relaxes and that any oomph stays to our sw. Interesting times ahead One does need to take into account that the mean will see a general rounding off of the ‘sharp edges’ as the run progresses.
  25. bluearmy
    Did no one give you a copy of the terms and conditions when you started looking at models ?
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