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Number 23

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Everything posted by Number 23

  1. Not really. I enjoy severe cold spells, but that doesn't mean I can't enjoy other conditions, especially when they remind me that the seasons are about to turn after a very disappointing period. The output speaks for itself at the moment. No point lingering on the negatives.
  2. The output might be suggesting it's time to file this winter away, preferably the circular file, but still plenty to be happy about here. Just enjoyed a coffee and a vape in the garden. Glorious morning out. Birds chirping, bright and a nip in the air I'll take second prize today!
  3. For me it's not so much whether heavy snow can fall and settle in late Feb or early March (since it clearly can) but whether deep, lasting cold with minimal daytime thawing can emerge. The magic of the classic cold spells was not just in how much snow fell, but the short days with additional accumulations over a period of several days with the potential for more to come. We're now wandering into territory akin to being in the middle of Aug, sat under a trough, it's 18 degrees out, and waiting for a 30+ heatwave to develop in early September. It might, but it's becoming less than a puncher's chance with each passing set of outputs. I must say either way I'm excited about Spring, and the longer days are a nice tonic after a poor winter.
  4. Absolute rubbish again for my location in Essex, although last night was kind of like watching the grand national when your horse is still running but the jockey fell off ages ago Mid-Feb is where I start looking for Spring conditions to develop in the modelling, so a couple of weeks left for me of this winter season. Been a sub-par one in general if nothing emerges soon. Glad some members got a covering!
  5. Apparently I'll be getting four hours of moderate snow from 2am. Not convinced of that, but I'll definitely be awake to witness whatever transpires as I have a two day old baby, who evidently hates sleeping anywhere other than on me
  6. Yeah Tuesday was naff, and tonight looks like it could be equally naff. We've been on the periphery of both mini-events this year! I'm expecting a few flakes at least, and maybe a surprise will emerge? Who knows, still keeping an eye on the radar for the day though .
  7. Although a dusting looks likely for here, going to be fascinating watching this roll in today, who knows these things often throw up the odd curveball.
  8. Looks a bit meh to me for Essex tonight, but always nice to see South Coast getting a bit of action
  9. Yeah think we may get a bit of transition a bit later, but looks like we might crap out here tbh. Beehive Lane here.
  10. Certainly shows how far we have to go with the algorithms in the models as they stand, or perhaps the collection of starting data? Or both? Regardless of how chaotic it's been of late, it's also been an object lesson in the art of keeping powder dry when it comes to heralding the next ice age, and similarly declaring the end of winter! Great learning experience so far, and been great reading the resident experts trying to pick the bones out of this fiasco!
  11. Thank you, I am indeed as it's our first! My wife keeps saying he's holding out for the snow lol. I'm actually more confident of a cold spell than I was on Friday; perhaps because I didn't want the cold during next week anyway! There's a definite sense of something brewing, at least to my untrained eye and others have explained this very well. Much rather see the general theme get picked up and then upgrade from 120 onwards than show it's hand at 168-192+ as we know how that usually ends!
  12. Second bite seems the form horse now. I do agree with what an earlier poster mentioned, in that I'm more convinced that the second attempt will verify in some meaningful way. Anything after 4th of Feb is fine by me, as my son is due to be born today, and after last week's runs I had visions of sliding into the hospital sideways rather than driving. Would be great to see a spell like '91 at around the same time, which remains my fondest memory of severe winter conditions.
  13. Ha! That sounds like something that'd happen to me! Thanks for the good wishes - 18z gfs is backing ECM for next week now, so if the UKMO gets on board overnight it's curry for dinner this weekend
  14. Thank you, it's not bad news fortunately (awaiting the birth of our child) so could do without freezing conditions and icy roads!
  15. I'm not overly pleased about the impending cold (if it happens) due to personal circumstances. Need to be ready for hospital runs over the coming two weeks. Seen so many scenarios at this range where the UKMO isn't aligned to ECM, and many times this has proven to be key when predicting the correct solution. Middle ground likely IMO so def colder, but probably not disruptive snowfall. That's also a bit of hopecasting....
  16. Still stiflingly hot here in Chelmsford. Breeze starting to pick up slightly, and light cloud cover drifting in from the south. Just south of the amber warning here, but certainly feels like something stirring. Have put the plant pots under cover or I think they'll get a bashing later. Never thought I'd utter these words, but I cannot wait for the rain.
  17. After an eventful late Winter & glorious second half of Spring, it looks like we could be slipping into a somewhat benign start to summer. Murky and average temps seem to be the order of the day in my location for now. Let's hope our trend of unseasonal start/extreme end to our seasons this year is continued. I love to see the heat build in the height of summer, so would gladly trade June for a hot and thundery July/August.
  18. What's that yellow orb in the sky called? Fascinating. It's felt like a geological age since I last saw a day like this, but today is an absolute corker so far. First day I've really noticed Spring starting to get a foothold - green buds beginning to unravel, grass needs a cut etc. Never thought I'd be looking forward to mowing the lawn so much.
  19. Spring warmth still being held at bay for the foreseeable it seems. Cannot wait for a dry warm spell, and to leave the coat and brolly at home for a while. Hopefully, we'll get lucky with an early and long summer. Need it after what feels like a never-ending winter.
  20. Well, the coverage here was highly variable since it never really settled on the roads etc until the peak of the snow about 9pm on Saturday. At it's deepest on my patio furniture we probably topped out at about 7cms. I'm tapping out now, seen enough of this until next winter. Please send a plume or two our way weather gods...
  21. Can't believe we're looking at this on 16th March. Imagine if the first Easterly had been mid-Jan and this was hitting in early Feb. Would've been quite the winter! As it stands if I get 5-10 cms (still TBC obviously) that would be three snowfalls in that range in the space of three months. Not a bad return at all really.
  22. Well after the fun and games of last week, for me it's nice to see a return to some level of normality and not watching the bloody radar. Our cat is especially delighted, as he can now discard the litter tray and get back to burying his business in next door's flower bed. I'd give that spell a solid 7/10 for our area - mainly huffing and puffing to be honest, but one decent fall and many showers. Still some talk of potential snow events through March, although I'm positively aching for that first moment of Spring sunshine which feels genuinely 'warm'. It's felt like a long old winter, this one!
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