BornFromTheVoid

7.1C before corrections looks most likely to me. The warm spell, in terms of length and intensity, could change that by 0.1 or 0.2C either direction.

Daily NSIDC extent is down 323k in the last 3 days, so it seems the melt season is well underway!

The maximum has passed and the melt season is beginning. Will we see a repeat of last years Arctic heatwaves and rapid melt or a cooler, cloudy summer promoting a slight rebound? Continue the discussion here!

It seems likely that we've passed the maximum for the 2020/21 refreeze, and so it's time for the first sea ice extent minimum poll of the year. The annual minimum typically occurs during September, so a lot of weather to come between now and then Using the NSIDC daily extent, the minima since 2010, in millions of km2, are: 2020: 3.7 2019: 4.1 2018: 4.6 2017: 4.6 2016: 4.1 2015: 4.4 2014: 5.0 2013: 5.0 2012: 3.3 2011: 4.3 2010: 4.6 Spreadsheets and other sea ice data can be accessed through the NSIDC here I'll try to get these polls up 5 or so days before the end of each month, and then close them at the end of the last day of the month. So give me a nudge if I forget!

With the NSIDC daily extent now over quarter of a million km2 below the March 11th value, I think it's safe to call the max. Here's an animation of the extent map and graph. The trend is a little over -400,000 km2 per decade.

The daily Arctic sea ice extent maximum this year occurred on March 11th and was the 8th smallest on record, at 14,866,000 km². This is in line with the long term downward trend of just over 400,000 km² per decade.

Cheers for the link. So it seems the fossil evidence is questionable (many other interpretations for the findings that don't require life). The interesting thing, at least according to the great filter ideas from the Fermi paradox, is if we find evidence for life on Mars it could be really bad sign for humanity. Even fossil evidence would indicate that the emergence of life is very common throughout the universe. If that's true, then given the age of the universe, we should see signs of intelligent life everywhere. Because we don't have evidence of intelligent life anywhere else, it means something is either deliberately wiping out other intelligent lifeforms, intelligent life naturally wipes itself out or the emergence of intelligence is a cosmically rare fluke and we really are alone. Two of those three possibilities would suggest that we don't have long left as a species.

You're gonna need to provide some proof for that one!

Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is to 97.2% (6 days ago was 61.3%) Above average (>7.2C) is to 0.0% (6 days ago was 3.2%) Below average (<6.2C) is to 2.8% (6 days ago was 35.5%) GFS for the 23rd to 28th looks like averaging about 7.5C, or 0.3C above the 91-20 average

Hi @Greyhound81, welcome to the forum! You are correct about their cooling effect, a term called global dimming. And yes, the planet would probably be a little cooler if many of the clear air acts hadn't come into play, and if coal use continued to grow. Some geoengineering proposals involve injecting aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect more sunlight too. In fact, there are plans to test this method on a small scale in Sweden soon (link below) However, the regional effects of geoengineering are uncertain and it couldn't prevent the other -ve effects of our CO2 emissions, such as ocean acidification. Also, as soon as you stop producing enough aerosols, warming would come roaring back! Balloon test flight plan under fire over solar geoengineering fears | Geoengineering | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Swedish environmental groups warn test flight could be first step towards the adoption of a potentially “dangerous, unpredictable, and unmanageable” technology

Here's a link to a graph with Antarctic sea ice extent too, so it can be compared with other years. Just click on "Antarctica" under "Region Selector" on the right. VISHOP ADS.NIPR.AC.JP VIsualization Service of Horizontal scale Observations at Polar region

Slow animation for the last week. Looks like losses are edging gains at the moment.

Nah, it's not at it's highest. It saw it's faster growth in 50 years but is well below many recent years, such as the anomalous 2012 to 2014 period when sea ice coverage was breaking records. The rapid growth came from winds blowing from the continent over the Ross and Amundsen Seas, creating large -ve temperature anomalies while also blowing the sea ice away from land causing rapid expansion. Below is an animation I made at the time

Looks like the sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk has taken a big hit in the last 2 days.

Latest PIOMAS volume data is out. 2021 is 5th lowest on record, above 2011, 2016 2017 and 2018. It's also: 8,000 km³ below 1980s average, 6,700 km³ below 1990s average, 3,300 km³ below 2000s average and equal to the 2010s average The Russian Seas are up to the 4th most volume since 2000, while the central Arctic basin has climbed to 3rd lowest All regions, for 2021, 2020 and the 3 lowest volume years are below.

Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is to 61.3% (3 days ago was 40.7%) Above average (>7.2C) is to 3.2% (3 days ago was 2.8%) Below average (<6.2C) is to 35.5% (3days ago was 56.5%) GFS for the 14th to 19th looks like averaging about 7.5C, or 0.5C above the 91-20 average

As it looks like the maximum has been reached (8th lowest on record), here's the min to max at 10 day intervals.

As it looks like the maximum has been reached (8th lowest on record), here's the min to max at 10 day intervals.

Latest projections... The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is to 40.7% (2 days ago was 34.3%) Above average (>7.2C) is to 2.8% (2 days ago was 2.4%) Below average (<6.2C) is to 56.5% (2 days ago was 63.3%) GFS for the 14th to 19th looks like averaging about 6.9C, or 0.3C below the 91-20 average

Latest projections... The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is to 34.3% (2 days ago was 31.1%) Above average (>7.2C) is to 2.4% (2 days ago was 2.8%) Below average (<6.2C) is to 63.3% (2 days ago was 66.1%) GFS for the 12th to 17th looks like averaging about 6.2C, or 0.9C below the 91-20 average

The ups and downs in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk over the last few weeks. An unusual amount of variability, especially in the Sea of Okhotsk during Feb, with storms hitting the Bering Sea more since March

Latest update The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is to 31.1% (2 days ago was 29.4%) Above average (>7.2C) remains at 2.8% (2 days ago was 2.8%) Below average (<6.2C) is to 66.1% (2 days ago was 67.7%) GFS for the 10th to 15th looks like averaging about 6.6C, or 0.3C below the 91-20 average

February 2021 had the joint 7th lowest extent on record. 1,332,000 km2 below the 1980s 1,052,000 km2 below the 1990s 485,000 km2 below the 2000s 9,000km2 above the 2010s

Latest update The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is to 29.4% (4 days ago was 23.8%) Above average (>7.2C) is to 2.8% (4 days ago was 3.6%) Below average (<6.2C) is to 67.7% (4 days ago was 72.6%) GFS for the 8th to 13th looks like averaging about 6.2C, or 0.5C below the 91-20 average

Yeah, I think the phrase is something like all models are wrong but some are useful. Still, my guess would be first "ice-free" September day around the end of this decade. Perhaps I'll set up a poll later to gauge peoples opinions.