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BornFromTheVoid

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Everything posted by BornFromTheVoid

  1. A comparison of sea ice extent for January 24th across different years. The Canadian Atlantic and Bering Sea appear furthest behind, while the Sea of Okhotsk is doing quite well.
  2. Review article: Earth's ice imbalance TC.COPERNICUS.ORG <p><strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and... Abstract We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017. Arctic sea ice (7.6 trillion tonnes), Antarctic ice shelves (6.5 trillion tonnes), mountain glaciers (6.1 trillion tonnes), the Greenland ice sheet (3.8 trillion tonnes)
  3. Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 91.2% chance of finishing between 2.5C and 4.0C before corrections. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔻 to 4.8% (2 days ago was 5.2%) Above average (>4.9C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago was 0.0%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔺 to 95.2% (2 days ago was 94.8%) Coldest outcome is 2.3C.
  4. Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 91.2% chance of finishing between 2.5C and 4.0C before corrections. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔻 to 5.2% (2 days ago was 29.8%) Above average (>4.9C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago was 0.0%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔺 to 94.8% (2 days ago was 70.2%) Coldest outcome is 1.5C.
  5. This was close to midnight. Mostly grey slush this morning, so must have turned back to rain at some point. 20210120_230436.mp4
  6. Sea ice volume remains 2nd lowest on record, 980 km3 above 2017 Regionally, 2021 is just as bad as 2017 in the central Arctic, but pulls ahead in the other Arctic Ocean seas (Laptev through to Beaufort) and the Sea of Okhotsk.
  7. Sea ice volume remains 2nd lowest on record, 980 km3 above 2017 Regionally, 2021 is just as bad as 2017 in the central Arctic, but pulls ahead in the other Arctic Ocean seas (Laptev through to Beaufort) and the Sea of Okhotsk.
  8. Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 98.8% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔻 to 29.8% (2 days ago was 32.3%) Above average (>4.9C) is 🔻 to 0.0% (2 days ago was 0.4%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔺 to 70.2% (2 days ago was 67.3%) Coldest outcome is above 1C.
  9. I put together a thread looking at the recent big increases in sea ice extent and some of the implications. Some might find it interesting. Some might hate it. Here it is regardless😛
  10. Slow sea ice animation for the last week. Subtle changes overall
  11. Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 91.5% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 32.3% (2 days ago was 22.6%) Above average (>4.9C) is 🔻 to 0.4% (2 days ago was 0.8%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻 to 67.3% (2 days ago was 76.6%) No projection finishes below 0C, and only 1 goes below 1C.
  12. Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 91.3% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 22.6% (2 days ago was 22.2%) Above average (>4.9C) is 🔻 to 0.8% (2 days ago was 2.8%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔺 to 76.6% (2 days ago was 75.0%) No projections finish below 0C.
  13. Slushy snow out at the moment here (Spital Tongues). Sleet is turning increasingly snowy again though
  14. My projection, using the GFS, has the CET at 2.7C to the 17th. For a sub zero finish (before corrections) we'll need the average from the 18th to 31st to be less than -3.0C. This has only happened twice before, in 1776 and 1795.
  15. Sea ice in the Barents and Kata have been all over the place recently. Huge variations from one day to the next. (Animation is too big to upload, so here's the tweet)
  16. Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 87.9% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 22.2% (2 days ago was 20.2%) Above average (>4.9C) is 🔻 to 2.8% (2 days ago was 4.0%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻 to 75.0% (2 days ago was 75.8%)
  17. I thought some might find this interesting. It highlights the effects of the north sea on snow around the Tyne. Looks like 4 to 9km inland was required for snow to settle EDIT: I should add that the image is from the 9th
  18. They are for the winter periods, so they cross over years. So 2020 is just November and December so far. So there, 1984/85 had 11, 1985/86 had 7, and 1986/87 had 6.
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