BornFromTheVoid

Lack of exceptional warmth this summer in the Arctic has reduced in situ melting, a +ve AO/NAO and reverse dipole have increased the cloudiness and reduced the export of sea ice out of Fram Strait and a number of moderate storms have spread the ice out much further, which increases the extent and to a lesser degree, the area. There are many different graphs out there and many sources currently that are having difficulties (windsat being one, hence no IJIS updates for a while). This site has many of them https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/ Any proof? Or just the N of 80N graph again? Last days data....................... .......................... Melt Season So Far As always, dish out insults when you don't like the data. It doesn't show ice reaching 0 next year and it says nothing about CO2, that's all in you imagination.

Today looks like coming in around 17.5C, so remaining on 17.0C on tomorrows update. The 12z GFS op run then has the CET around 16.9C to the 19th (15.8] 17.0C to the 20th (17.7) 17.0C to the 21st (18.5) 17.2C to the 22nd (19.4) 17.3C to the 23rd (20.6) 17.3C to the 24th (18.0) 17.3C to the 25th (15.5)

So far this summer, the pressure gradient across the Fram Strait (from NE Greenland and Svalbard) has been much reduced, with strong southerlies over and to the east of Svalbard. This has reduced the southward flow of ice all summer. Similar occurred in the years around 2001, when there was practically no ice in the Greenland Sea by summers end. This is part of a reverse dipole pattern, the first -ve June and July combined dipole since 2004. This pattern tends to drive sea ice more toward the Bering Strait rather than the Fram Strait, which spreads the sea ice around the Pacific side of the Arctic more, whilst reducing export through Fram JJA SLP from 2007 to 2012 .............. ............. ..SLP June 1 to August 14 2013 The storms this year, while not as strong as last August, have helped to disperse to the sea ice further, increasing the extent and to a lesser degree, the area. The NSIDC mentioned the effect of storms on their latest update http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/08/a-month-of-two-halves-and-no-hole/ If we are seeing a trend change toward a few years with this kind of pattern with a combination of colder winters, we could see sea ice back up towards the pre 2007 levels easily enough. But, it will take many more years to rebuild the thickness and so the ice would still be much more vulnerable to strong melt conditions than the pre 2007 pack was.

I'd say that being put in a position of power and responsibility, only to repeatedly shout whatever conspiracies and falsehoods your funders tell you to, is the biggest player in entrenching and polarising opinion.

Minimum today of 15.3C, with maxima close to 23C, so an increase tomorrow to 17.1C is likely. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 17.0C to the 17th (15.6) 17.0C to the 18th (17.5) 16.9C to the 19th (15.5) 16.9C to the 20th (16.3) 17.0C to the 21st (18.7) 17.1C to the 22nd (19.4) 17.3C to the 23rd (20.8] An impressive difference between the op run and the ensemble mean.

Very true, but it doesn't matter. I've corrected him about claiming anything for the Arctic based on just 80N many times, but it doesn't change anything. Most of Keith's posts here are just copied and pasted, without reference, from Steve Goddard's extreme right/climate denial blog. He's the denier that's so outlandishly bad, he doesn't use his real name and is kept away from most other climate denial sites!

Only for north of 80N, from that single source and with the caveat that there are many issues with the DMI record that cause it to record lower temperatures nowadays, and that warm pulses won't get recorded at the surface in summer unless north of 80N becomes ice free. Link 1 Link 2 Temperature north of 80N and 925hPa, where the summer temperature is not capped by the melting point of ice. Anyway, I'd say a daily minimum extent of close to 5 million km2, and an area of around 3.5 million km2 is looking most likely at the moment, so similar to 2009. The strong +ve dipole forecast has been replaced with a strong -ve dipole pattern that will likely spread the sea ice out further toward Beaufort and Chukchi, reducing the extent losses overall. It's harder to say what effect this will have on the area and volume though.

It's a pity that the NSIDC don't do an Antarctic version of this graph. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Ah yes, 2010, not last year I presume you're referring to the monthly extent there?

With 16.78C to the 14th, in order to reach the following numbers before correction, we need to average 19.0C/day to reach 18.0C 17.2C/day to reach 17.0C 16.1C/day to reach 16.4C (81-10 average) 15.4C/day to reach 16.0C With the next 8 days averaging about 18.5C on the 06z GFS (CET of 17.4C to the 22nd), I think we can effectively rule out anything below 16.0C, and put 18.0C as the likely roof after corrections.

Antarctic sea ice area booming again, but just behind 2010 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ Sea ice extent, slightly above average

Currently much closer to average than this time last year

When did the warm and settled conditions start!?

Do you really think that unicorns are as bad that the accusations of academic fraud, data manipulation, hatred of the poor and developing nations, or comparisons with pedophiles and serial killers? All of which get hurled AGW researchers and those that accept the science.

I realise that, but sometimes it can be useful to go through it step by step, with the input of others. A good learning exercise methinks.

Did it?

A grand solar minimum would barely make a dent in human-caused global warming The Maunder Minimum was a period of very low solar activity between 1645 and 1715, and the Dalton Minimum was a period of low (but not as low as the Maunder Minimum) solar activity between 1790 and 1830. Solar research suggests that we may have a similar period of low solar activity sometime this century. Recent articles in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten (translation available here) and in the Irish Times both ran headlines claiming that another grand solar minimum could potentially trigger an "ice age" or "mini ice age" this century. These articles actually refer to the Little Ice Age (LIA) – a period about 500 to 150 years ago when global surface temperatures were about 1°C colder than they are today. Thus a grand solar minimum would have to cause about 1°C cooling, plus it would have to offset the continued human-caused global warming between 1 and 5°C by 2100, depending on how our greenhouse gas emissions change over the next century. Though in the Jyllands-Posten article, Henrik Svensmark (the main proponent of the galactic cosmic ray-climate hypothesis) was a bit more measured, suggesting, "I can imagine that it will become 0.2°C colder. I would be surprised if it became 1–2°C" So these two articles are suggesting that a grand solar minimum could have a cooling effect of about 1 to 6°C, depending on how human greenhouse gas emissions change over the next century. Is it plausible that a grand solar minimum could make that happen? The short answer is, 'No.' The rest is here https://www.skepticalscience.com/grand-solar-minimum-barely-dent-AGW.html I might have a look later, though I'm not entirely convinced that the AMO isn't simply the result of warming, rather than a cause.

I though I'd try a piece of very basic (riddled with errors no doubt) analysis. We know that ENSO influences global temperature, so how about trying making an estimate of it's effect on global temperatures and trying to take that from the UAH record? Here's the original temperature data, from UAH. It has a trend of 0.137C/decade. A correlation between the ENSO monthly values and the UAH monthly values yielded a strongest correlation with a 4 month lag of +0.352. To try adjust for ENSO, I took the average monthly SST anomalies across the ENSO region and divided them by 5, which seemed to produce a reasonable temperature range.. These combined, contributes to between a maximum of 0.32C and a minimum of -0.23C to any individual year. For example, 1998 (very large El Nino) got a estimated +0.32C boost from ENSO, while for example, 2011 (moderate La Nina) got an estimated -0.16C reduction due to ENSO. I realise these are just estimates btw! Anyway, below is a graph representing the estimated monthly ENSO impact of temperatures. Taking them from the UAH temperature, we get this... The effects of Pinatubo and El Chichon become quite clear with ENSO taken away. The new trend become a little steeper overall, but not massively so, about 0.144C/decade. Much less of a clear slow down after 1998 though... Now, to try and include solar activity, using the annual sunspot count. In order to do this, I used the 11 year mean, got the long term average of that, and then calculated the annual anomalies. To get a simple temperature influence, I divided the anomaly by 150 and used the remaining values to represent the temperature contribution, which gave a maximum solar contribution of +0.269C in 1989, with a minimum contribution -0.098C in 2012, which, once again, seems like a reasonable range given how massively variable solar activity has been in recent decades. Below shows the estimated temperature contribution of solar activity. And removed from the actual temperature values... And the new temperature trends to 0.208C/decade. I realise these are just rough estimates, any suggestions are welcome. Anything else to include, ways of improving the ENSO and solar contributions, etc? I'll try do something with the eruptions another day too.

Today's minimum is 9.4C, while maxima look like reaching over 19C, so a drop back to 17.0C is likely on tomorrow's update. After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET at 16.9C to the 14th (16.5) 17.1C to the 15th (19.5) 17.2C to the 16th (19.0) 17.2C to the 17th (17.2) 17.2C to the 18th (17.7) 17.1C to the 19th (14.6) 17.0C to the 20th (15.8]

Looks like both the north west passage and northern passage may become open over the next few days. With the northern passage, the ice bridge connecting Severnaya Zemlya to the Russian mainland has been blocking access between the Kara and Laptev sea over the last few weeks. The ice bridge is still clearly visible on the map below. The bridge has been slowly melting, but it looks as though the winds are going to blow the sea ice from the northern side of Severnaya Zemlya towards the north pole, allowing the ice bridge to be bypassed. This can be seen on today's MODIS image of the region. The sea ice will likely get pushed towards the N. Pole over the next few days, allowing for the opening of the northern passage. With the north west passage, the Canadian Archipelago has seen some very warm temperatures over the last week, with a quick melt occurring. There is currently just a small amount of ice, perhaps just a few thousand km2 left to melt to allow the NW passage to be traversed. These small areas can be seen on the MODIS image below, from yesterday. - ------------------------------------------------------- Cryosphere Today has just record a drop of 108k. This takes 2012 below the annual daily minimum of 20 out of the last 34 year, and within 350k of every other minimum before 2007.

A bit late, but a nice shelf cloud over the Galtee Mountains I caught during the storms at the end of July. https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/18794-panorama2/ Not sure what this cloud is cloud, but looked pretty mean! EDIT: If the first pic doesn't work, he's a link to another copy http://i.imgur.com/5MWxw74.jpg

Today's minimum is 12.7C, while maxima were above 20C, so perhaps falling back to 17.5C on tomorrows update. After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at 17.5C to the 11th (17.2) 17.3C to the 12th (15.0) 17.1C to the 13th (15.4) 17.0C to the 14th (15.9) 17.1C to the 15th (18.1) 17.2C to the 16th (18.4) 17.3C to the 17th (18.5) At this stage, I'd say guesses above 18.5C or below 15.5C could be ruled out, while between 18.0 and 18.5C and 16.0 and 15.5C look quite unlikely, but still have a small chance.