BornFromTheVoid

The combined Baffin Bay and Gulf of St Lawrence extent is now the lowest on record for Feb 14th.

Might well be right. For my projections I use the GFS to estimate the next 5 days, and then use the data from the CET record to project the remaining days of the month (I try my best to leave my own feelings out of it). They aren't always the best because they don't take into account the medium term trends, but then it's less likely to get caught out by models flip-flopping. However, using my method, currently there's a 47% chance of finishing 4C or higher, and 22% of 4.5C or higher. These are all before corrections too.

Latest projections and probabilities: The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 47% (six days ago it was 25%) Above average (>4.9C) is to 7% (six days ago it was 5%) Below average (<3.9C) is 46% (six days ago it was 70%) GFS for the 14th to the 19th averages about 6.4C, pulling the CET up to 3.6C. The 20th, while far off, if currently forecast to beat the daily record of 11.3C, so something to keep an eye on.

I can't see the updated data since the 9th. Whether looking on different devices, browsers, clearing data, etc. Weird one. If someone with access could paste the provisional daily mean and min data I'd really appreciated it.

It's the basic laws of science (chemistry, optics, etc) that say CO2 causes warming, something that was recognised over 100 years ago and accept by even the most ardent climate science "sceptics" (what they question are the magnitude of feedbacks that produce additional warming). This is supported by every national and international scientific organization on Earth as well as 10s of thousands of experts on the subject. CO2 is not the only factor governing the global temperature. Using your example, historically CO2 has been much higher and the Earth cooler. At the time of the early Earth, the sun was much more faint so high levels of GhGs were needed to stop the planet from freezing over then. Nowadays, the sun is 1.4 times brighter so less CO2 is required because of the greater solar output. How do we know about past weather and climate states? How do we know about natural climate drivers? Because of climate scientists, the same scientists that are telling us that our carbon emission are causing warming now. The evidence all points to a large scale propaganda effort, beginning in the 1970/80s, on behalf of polluting industries (the richest on Earth) to convince people that the science is uncertain/communist/gravy-train scientists and such silly notions. An industry's only duty is to protect their profits and so they had to fight back against any potential regulations, which meant preventing public support for such regulations. The media has largely supported industry propaganda in this endeavour, though mostly the right-wing media in the last 2 decades. Think about it. Could climate scientists really take on the worlds most powerful and wealthy industries in a propaganda battle? Anywho, there is literally no science out there that says CO2 does not cause warming, only the ramblings of non-experts on blogs and propaganda outlets.

Slow animation for the last week. Barents and Bering seeing good growth, opposite for Okhotsk and Baffin Bay. The opening at the exit of the Nares Strait is interesting.

In a literal sense you're correct. CO2 itself doesn't cause extreme weather directly. But through the GhG effect, the warming and related changes are believed to contribute to increases in some extremes weather events. So, assuming what you meant is that global warming isn't causing changes to extreme weather, we can start trying to understand your reasoning. First off, do you think that CO2 even causes warming? Secondly, do you think that climate scientists haven't analysed historical weather data?

For January, despite brutal cold in some parts of the world and a La Nina currently, it was still the 6th warmest on record for the planet. If we get lots of northerly and easterly winds in winter, we will get below average temperatures. Weather will still cause a mix of positive and negative temperature anomalies, but the average temperature over multiple decades will still be climbing. That's what we see even in the UK, or using the CET data for instance.

Caught a few nice pics out around the town moor a little while ago.

Time-lapse from this morning. Too big to upload here, so the tweet instead.

More moderate snow in Newcastle. Got the time-lapse running too, should be a nice one!

Alright folks, people are allowed to express their opinions about the current spell without being criticised for them. There is no requirement for analysis as this isn't the MOD thread. If something is rule breaking or offensive then use the report function. Cheers!

Been going like this the last 15 mins. Building up very nicely. The footpaths are disappearing! 20210210_012823.mp4

Close to an inch dropped in the last hour. Deepest it's been so far this spell and some hefty showers lining up favourably!

Looks like a potential streamer developing for Newcastle shortly after 1 pm

Latest projections and probabilities The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 25% (two days ago it was 29%) Above average (>4.9C) is to 5% (two days ago it was 8%) Below average (<3.9C) is 70% (two days ago it was 63%) GFS for the 8th to the 13th averages about -1C, pulling the CET down to just 2.0C.

Short time-lapse of the approach and quick passing of an intense graupel to snow shower this morning. Snow kicks in about half way through. 20210208_100829_1.mp4

Light dusting around here, but light snow is still falling.

The change is slow, but it's getting noticeably more sleety. Another 1C drop should do it

Just starting to turn a little sleety here. So it begins

Latest projections and probabilities The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 29% (two days ago it was 31%) Above average (>4.9C) is to 8% (two days ago it was 27%) Below average (<3.9C) is 63% (two days ago it was 42% )

Not quite, but regardless, a small fraction of something incredibly large can still be a massive amount and still matters! Anyway, Antarctic mass loss since 1992 is about 3,000 gigatonnes, while Antarctica has about 30 million gigatonnes of ice sheet. As a percentage, that's 0.01%. The annual rate of loss had quadrupled since from the 1990s to 2000s, so 2/3 of that total loss has happened in the last 10 years Greenland has little less than 10% of Antarctica's volume but is losing ice even faster, so it's dropping roughly 0.01% per year currently having increased loss 7 times since the 90s.

Not quite, seems to be off by several orders of magnitude. 1 gigatonne (1 billion tonnes) is equal to 1 cubic km of ice. Try work on the calculations from there!

Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 88.0% chance of finishing between 2.5C and 6.5C before corrections. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 31% (two days ago it was 27%) Above average (>4.9C) is to 27% (two days ago it was 36%) Below average (<3.9C) is 42% (two days ago it was 37% )

Volume is currently 3rd lowest on record, but it's essentially tied with 2013 and 2018 for 2nd lowest. 2017 has a large gap at the bottom of the rankings. The Russian Arctic coastline is doing quite well, but at the expense of the central Arctic basin, which is now lowest on record.