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BornFromTheVoid

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Everything posted by BornFromTheVoid

  1. Latest projections. The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is 🔺to 2.4% (2 days ago 1.6%) Above average (>9.5C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago 0.0%) Below average (<8.5C) is 🔻to 97.6% (2 days ago 98.4%) The period of the 14th to the 19th is forecast to average 7.0C, which is 1.7C below the 91-20 average.
  2. Here's the blog post mentioned earlier where I take a look at the upcoming melt season. 2021 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season Outlook WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Samual Hayes explores the trends and the main influencing factors as the Arctic Sea Ice Melt season for 2021 gets underway. Obviously it's a little shortened and leaves out some features (such as the uncertainty in volume derived from models vs observations which may be very important this year) but as an basic overview it's hopefully ok.
  3. Samual Hayes explores the trends and the main influencing factors as the Arctic Sea Ice Melt season for 2021 gets underway. Read the full article
  4. They do occur (2006 was the closest to this year) but they've never been quite this big in early April before. Agreed though, winds are shifting at the moment so it's likely to close up again. Something else interesting, is that the Central Arctic hasn't yet fully frozen over this year. This has happened only twice before up to this point, in 2018 and 2016. Anywho, on a separate note, different things going on around the Arctic. On the Pacific side, ice melt in the Sea of Okhotsk is slower than normal, with the current the rank rising from 16th to 21st lowest in the last 7 days. The
  5. With open water north of both Svalbard & Franz Joseph Land, the 5 day running sea ice extent is now lowest on record for the central Arctic. As winds shift, it's likely that this will change, but it also highlights how unusual large areas of open water this far north are atm.
  6. Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is 🔻to 1.6% (2 days ago 3.6%) Above average (>9.5C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago 0.0%) Below average (<8.5C) is 🔺to 98.4% (2 days ago 96.4%) The period of the 12th to the 17th is forecast to average 4.5C, which is 3.2C below the 91-20 average. The absolute highest outcome now is 8.7C, so it's safe to rule out anything above 9C.
  7. Similar with the CET maxima. The record high maxima on the 3rd, 23.5C (in 1946), is the 4th highest for the whole month. It's also warmer than any of the record maxima in the last 9 days of April. I guess it highlights the potential for maxima in the mid 20s throughout April
  8. The Atlantic sector of the Arctic showing lots of sea ice dynamics this last week. Loads of ice being exported through the Fram Strait. Melting and movement of ice in the Barents sea and a sudden massive opening north of Franz Joseph Land under recent southerly winds.
  9. Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is 🔻to 3.6% (2 days ago 7.7%) Above average (>9.5C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago 0.0%) Below average (<8.5C) is 🔺to 96.4% (2 days ago 92.3%) The period of the 8th to the 13th is forecast to average 4.5C, which is 3.8C below the 91-20 average. Some potential low hanging fruit coming up. The record low minima for the 12th and 13th are just -1.7C and -1.4C respectively, and the GFS forecasts something quite close to those values
  10. Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is 🔻to 7.7% (3 days ago 11.7%) Above average (>9.5C) is 🔻to 0.0% (3 days ago 0.4%) Below average (<8.5C) is 🔺to 92.3% (3 days ago 87.9%) The period of the 8th to the 13th is forecast to average 5.0C, which is 3.3C below the 91-20 average. I've noticed that the GFS has had quite a consistent cold bias throughout the month so far, typically about 2C too cold at night, and 1C too cold during the day.
  11. Assuming 5.5C mid month, for the second half of the month we'd need to average: 6.4C to reach 6.0C (achieved in 96% of previous years) 8.4C to reach 7.0C (achieved in 59% of previous years) 10.4C to reach 8.0C (achieved in 25% of previous years) 12.4C to reach 9.0C (achieved in 2% of previous years) That's all excluding the end of month corrections.
  12. Latest PIOMAS volume is out to the end of March. 2021 is 6th lowest on record, above 2011, 2016 2017, 2018 and 2019. It's also: 8,000 km³ below 1980s 6,700 km³ below 1990s 3,300 km³ below 2000s 100 km³ below the 2010s average Regionally, volume continues to do well along the Russian Arctic coastline, 5th most volume since 2000. For the central Arctic, 2021 has dropped back to 2nd lowest on record. Here are all the regional comparisons, for 2021, 2020 and the 3 lowest years.
  13. The single day drop in the CET maxima from yesterday to today could exceed 8C. In the record for April this has only been achieved 15 times. Just 2 days have dropped by more than 10C, they are the 12th to 13th last year, -10.6C, and the 4th to the 5th in 1946, -10.7C. The graph below compares those 2 big drops with the potential drop for today. Highlights how impressive this drop is given we started at such a lower point.
  14. Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is 🔻to 11.7% (2 days ago 19.4%) Above average (>9.5C) is 🔻to 0.4% (2 days ago 1.6%) Below average (<8.5C) is 🔺to 87.9% (2 days ago 79%) The period of the 5th to the 10th is forecast to average 3.2C, which is 5.2C below the 91-20 average.
  15. Slow animation for the last week. Seems like might see a switch in the main areas of loss next week, as things look set to warm up a lot across the Atlantic side
  16. Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is 🔻to 19.4% (2 days ago 22.2%) Above average (>9.5C) is 🔻to 1.6% (2 days ago 6.0%) Below average (<8.5C) is 🔺to 79% (2 days ago 71.8%) The period of the 3rd to the 8th is forecast to average 4.5C, 3.5C below the 91-20 average.
  17. The current FI GFS outlook would have the CET in the low 5s (~5.3C) by mid month. Something that hasn't happened since 1986. As remarkably cold as that sounds, it still wouldn't even enter the top 20 coldest first halves of April.
  18. March overall was the 9th lowest extent on record, according to the NSIDC. Below is an animation showing the extent for each March and its corresponding spatial destruction.
  19. Looks like the record minimum for the 6th could be within reach. It's currently -2.4C, and the forecast looks set to be about -2C.
  20. First projections for April The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is 22.2% Above average (>9.5C) is 6.0% Below average (<8.5C) is 71.8% GFS for the 1st to 6th looks like averaging about 5.8C, or 2.3C above the 91-20 average
  21. Alright a few stats and graphs for March. AT 7.2C, March 2021 was the 42nd warmest in a record dating back to 1659. It was also: 0.5C above the 91-20 average 1.5C above the 61-90 average 1.4C above the 20th century average 2.2C above the 18th century average Compared with 1991-2020 average, 16 days were above average and 15 days were below. Three days were in the top 10 warmest, one of which set a new record, 14.3°C on the 31st. This beat the old record by 0.5°C. This was also just the 4th March day to average 14°C or higher. No daily minimum records were set.
  22. Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction. One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.
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