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BornFromTheVoid

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BornFromTheVoid last won the day on August 26 2016

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About BornFromTheVoid

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    Climate and weather, music, Formula 1, rugby, a few other sports and sciences.
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  1. BornFromTheVoid

    Was global warming already detected before 1980?

    The above video is based on the climate change vs global warming debate. Below is an abstract of a paper that examined the scientific literature of the 60s and 70s to see whether more studies suggested warming or cooling. THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS Climate science as we know it today did not exist in the 1960s and 1970s. The integrated enterprise embodied in the Nobel Prizewinning work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change existed then as separate threads of research pursued by isolated groups of scientists. Atmospheric chemists and modelers grappled with the measurement of changes in carbon dioxide and atmospheric gases, and the changes in climate that might result. Meanwhile, geologists and paleoclimate researchers tried to understand when Earth slipped into and out of ice ages, and why. An enduring popular myth suggests that in the 1970s the climate science community was predicting “global cooling” and an “imminent” ice age, an observation frequently used by those who would undermine what climate scientists say today about the prospect of global warming. A review of the literature suggests that, on the contrary, greenhouse warming even then dominated scientists' thinking as being one of the most important forces shaping Earth's climate on human time scales. More importantly than showing the falsehood of the myth, this review describes how scientists of the time built the foundation on which the cohesive enterprise of modern climate science now rests. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1
  2. Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 18.0C to the 13th... +1.2 (18.3: +2.1) 18.0C to the 14th... +1.2 (17.5: +0.8) 18.1C to the 15th... +1.2 (19.2: +2.4) 18.0C to the 16th... +1.2 (16.5: +0.0) 17.8C to the 17th... +1.0 (15.2: -1.3) 17.9C to the 18th... +1.1 (18.8: +2.2) 18.0C to the 19th... +1.2 (19.8: +2.9) 18.1C to the 20th... +1.2 (20.5: +3.8) 18.0C to the 21st... +1.3 (16.4: +0.0) 17.9C to the 22nd... +1.1 (15.2: -1.3) The CET looks like remaining in an around 18C, which means remaining slightly above average for the next week to 10 days.
  3. Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 18.5C to the 10th... +1.6 (14.0: -2.8) 18.3C to the 11th... +1.3 (15.9: -0.8) 18.2C to the 12th... +1.3 (17.9: +1.1) 18.1C to the 13th... +1.3 (17.2: +0.9) 18.1C to the 14th... +1.2 (16.8: +0.1) 18.0C to the 15th... +1.2 (17.7: +0.9) 18.0C to the 16th... +1.2 (17.5: +1.0) 17.9C to the 17th... +1.1 (16.9: +0.4) 17.9C to the 18th... +1.1 (16.5: -0.1) 17.7C to the 19th... +0.9 (15.8: -1.1) Close to average temperatures forecast overall for the next 10 days, which results in a gradual fall in the CET. At this stage, anything from close to average to top 5 warmest is still possible.
  4. Top 10 first weeks of August 1st... 21.5C 1975 2nd... 20.9C 1995 3rd... 20.2C 1933, 1868 5th... 19.8C 2003, 1990 7th... 19.7C 2004 8th... 19.6C 1856 9th... 19.5C 1897, 1999 So at 19.9C, we provisionally sit in there at 5th place
  5. Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET (I Hope!)... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 19.8C to the 6th... +2.8 (19.9: +2.7) 19.8C to the 7th... +2.8 (20.0: +3.1) 19.4C to the 8th... +2.4 (16.4: -0.4) 19.0C to the 9th... +2.0 (15.8: -1.1) 18.5C to the 10th... +1.6 (14.5: -2.3) 18.4C to the 11th... +1.5 (17.2: +0.5) 18.3C to the 12th... +1.4 (17.4: +0.6) 18.2C to the 13th... +1.3 (16.2: -0.1) 18.1C to the 14th... +1.3 (17.6: +0.9) 18.2C to the 15th... +1.4 (19.2: +2.4) After mid week, things mainly remaining close to average, with just 1, maybe 2, "cool" days. As such, we should still be hanging on into the 18s after mid month. (On the low res out to the 20th, the CET would quickly climb back above 19C!)
  6. Thanks @summer blizzard. Too late to edit now unfortunately Can a mod remove the table from my post above? Was in a rush, didn't double check the first column The graphs are fine, so they can stay. They also show the rolling CET value, which suggests we'll be on about 17.9C to the 12th!
  7. Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 19.9C to the 3rd... +2.8 (20.6: +3.7) 19.5C to the 4th... +2.6 (19.0: +2.0) 19.5C to the 5th... +2.5 (19.3: +2.0) 19.6C to the 6th... +2.6 (20.3: +3.1) 19.6C to the 7th... +2.6 (19.8: +2.9) 19.1C to the 8th... +2.2 (15.7: -1.1) 18.7C to the 9th... +1.7 (15.0: -1.9) 18.3C to the 10th... +1.4 (15.0: -1.8) 18.1C to the 11th... +1.1 (15.5: -1.2) 17.9C to the 12th... +1.0 (16.9: +0.1) A big cool down suggest after mid next week, with the coolest CET values since the last week of June. An extra graph today, showing the high and low daily records and top and bottom 10s, in comparison to 2018s daily values and the forecast for the next 10 days.
  8. A few other notable records and stats for the month. We had 1 record warm day, that was 22.5C on the 27th. This beats the previous record of 21.9C set in 1948. There are now only 2 days remaining in July with record values below 22C, the 8th and 9th at 21.4C and 21.6C respectively. The number of days at or above 17C during the month was a record, at 29. This beats the previous record of 28, set once more in 1783. The 30 year average for July up to 2018 is now the warmest on record, at 16.9C. This beats the previous warmest 30 year average set last year, of 16.7C. EDIT: Thanks for spotting the error, @Relativistic
  9. Looks like the CET has been confirmed as 19.1C! A downward corrections from 19.30 to 19.13C. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt
  10. Today's 06z GFS would have the CET around 20.4C after the first 10 days, and with the Met Office forecasts to the end of August suggesting a continuation of the current weather patterns, it's hard to justify guessing anything other than well above average.
  11. Almost certain finish on 19.3C before corrections, so anything from 18.8C to 19.4C possible thereafter.
  12. The 00z GFS has that run continuing on into the high res section of August too.
  13. A finish of either 19.2C or 19.3C before corrections is most likely (best guess of 19.24C atm). After corrections, about 18.7C to 19.4C is a reasonable range to expect.
  14. Max yesterday of 29.9C, provisionally the warmest for the CET since July 1st, 2015 at 31.3C. EDIT: Got that wrong! Warmest since July 19th, 2016, at 30.9C!
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