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BornFromTheVoid last won the day on October 10

BornFromTheVoid had the most liked content!

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    Climate and weather, music, Formula 1, rugby, a few other sports and sciences.
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  1. Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 12.7C to the 18th... +1.2 (9.4: -0.7) 12.6C to the 19th... +1.2 (9.6: -0.4) 12.5C to the 20th... +1.2 (11.4: +1.6) 12.5C to the 21st... +1.3 (13.0: +3.4) 12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (8.3: -1.6) 12.3C to the 23rd... +1.1 (10.3: +0.7) 12.2C to the 24th... +1.2 (11.6: +2.2) 12.1C to the 25th... +1.1 (9.3: -0.1) 12.0C to the 26th... +1.0 (8.2: -1.4) 11.8C to the 27th... +0.9 (6.1: -3.7) A slow and steady fall in the CET likely over the next 10 days with temperatures generally close to the seasonal average.
  2. Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 13.0C to the 16th... +1.4 (13.6: +3.3) 13.0C to the 17th... +1.5 (13.0: +3.0) 12.9C to the 18th... +1.4 (10.1: +0.0) 12.7C to the 19th... +1.3 (10.3: +0.3) 12.7C to the 20th... +1.3 (11.4: +1.6) 12.7C to the 21st... +1.4 (12.9: +3.3) 12.5C to the 22nd... +1.3 (8.8: -1.1) 12.4C to the 23rd... +1.2 (9.4: -0.2) 12.3C to the 24th... +1.2 (9.8: +0.4) 12.2C to the 25th... +1.2 (9.4: +0.0) The GFS suggests a gradual drop in the CET, accelerating as we enter the last 10 days. No exceptional values on the horizon.
  3. BornFromTheVoid

    Report Climate change ipcc

    You predicted that the sky would permanently consist of yellow polka dots, criss-crossed by unicorns with rainbows emanating from their rear ends by 2015, and yet I've only seen a handful of unicorns to date. I guess we should ignore everything you say about anything. /s (see, we can do silly fake predictions and make believe observations too!)
  4. At 18.1C, yesterday is provisionally the latest date to achieve a daily mean CET of 18C or higher. The previous record was 19.0C on the 6th of October, recorded in 1921. That year had a remarkable late season warm spell, averaging 17.5C in the 8 days from the 4th to 11th (17.1C, 17.7C, 19.0C, 16.9C, 17.1C, 17.0C, 17.8C, 17.4C) .
  5. BornFromTheVoid

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    Agree with essentially everything there. The only thing I'd add is that calling them "sceptics" is an insult to actual sceptics. Climate contrarian is another common term I see used. Hard to know what to call them. I shall scold myself for slipping back into the habit of using the term denier though!
  6. BornFromTheVoid

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    Exactly as expected, not a single relevant link (just one to the main body of the IPCC report, which is thousands of pages long!), source or piece of data to support your position. Just a rambling essay on how the establishment are wrong and you are right. I'm certain there are plenty of members that will be enamored by your baseless pontificaions. Suppose that's all that matters, reality can take a back seat!
  7. BornFromTheVoid

    Report Climate change ipcc

    You state a lot of things that are contrary to what I've heard, as though they are facts - yet not a single bit of evidence to back any of them up. Mind adding some data or references? Such as for you 30 parameters, based on 30 years of warming and natural warming in the last 30 years. If you respond with an essay that doesn't provide any data or sources, I will ignore it however!
  8. Only need a max today of 18.5C or higher for a new daily record. We've probably got that already today.
  9. Nope. The minimum for today was recorded between 9am yesterday and 9am today. 9am yesterday was around high 14s or so for the CET area, so that will likely be the minimum for today. It's still almost certain to be a record breaker, but I suspect something closer to high 17s or 18C as an average.
  10. BornFromTheVoid

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    The idea that it's down to individual actions to combat CO2 output is silly, I agree. We can make every sacrifice we can, but it won't amount to much if the big changes don't come from the top down. The main influence we can have on global warming is through our voting and pressuring of politicians. Saying that, China's renewable energy generation is growing faster than their coal use, so at least they're trying to do something.
  11. BornFromTheVoid

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    Apply your sceptical mind to that graph - imagine it was posted by someone that believed AGW was serious. How might you critique it? What questions might you ask? Go on, give it a try!
  12. BornFromTheVoid

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    Indeed, there is.
  13. BornFromTheVoid

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    We'd have to shut down most of our modern if we decide computer simulations aren't useful! Luckily, climate models are just one part of climate science, so the discipline will prevail regardless.
  14. BornFromTheVoid

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    I'm glad to know that next time someone says something along the lines of "global warming is just a theory" we'll have folk like you ready to correct them
  15. BornFromTheVoid

    Report Climate change ipcc

    It would appear that some here don't quite know the difference between scientific theory, and the colloquial usage of theory. From Wikipedia A scientific theory is an explanation of an aspect of the natural world that can be repeatedly tested and verified in accordance with scientific method, using accepted protocols of observation, measurement, and evaluation of results. Where possible, theories are tested under controlled conditions in an experiment.[1][2] In circumstances not amenable to experimental testing, theories are evaluated through principles of abductive reasoning. Established scientific theories have withstood rigorous scrutiny and embody scientific knowledge.[3] The meaning of the term scientific theory (often contracted to theory for brevity) as used in the disciplines of science is significantly different from the common vernacular usage of theory.[4][Note 1] In everyday speech, theory can imply an explanation that represents an unsubstantiated and speculative guess,[4] whereas in science it describes an explanation that has been tested and widely accepted as valid. These different usages are comparable to the opposing usages of prediction in science versus common speech, where it denotes a mere hope. --------------------- ----------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ --------------------------------- So, just because someone calls an idea they have a theory, doesn't mean it meets the standard of scientific theory. For example: Gravity, evolution, plate tectonics, germs causing disease - all scientific theories. Electric universe, flat earth, creationism, spicy food causing ulcers - theories in a colloquial sense, but not scientific theories