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About BornFromTheVoid

  • Birthday 28/03/88

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  1. The 12z, now that the northerly has been pushed back to November, has the CET climbing to 11.2C before corrections. I'll do a full update tomorrow if I have the time.
  2. Yeah, that only goes to the end of September. There was a big increase in extent just after the minimum, which has slowed down massively in October. The sea ice update I did at the start of October showed that September had the 3rd largest extent increase on record. But as the last update showed, the extent increase so far this month is the smallest on record.
  3. Felt quite nippy today. Had to stick my hat on for the first time this Autumn! Will be watching those charts for the start of November closely, a little wintry potential creeping in.
  4. Hey folks. Training going well. I decided to keep cutting until the end of October or so. Down to 160lbs now from about 184lbs back in April, in or around 10% body fat. The closest to "ripped" I've ever been, with a reasonable 4 pack! Plantar fasciitis has gone, but I did have some issues with my left wrist for a while so there's been no handstand or phanche training for a few weeks. Progress-wise, I can now do muscle ups with rings and I'm very close on the straight bar. I can do weighted dips with an extra 25kg. I can now do about 10 handstand shoulder presses in a row, but I still need the wall for balance a little. Pretty happy with how things are going.
  5. Do you mind linking to the IMS charts in question? I though IMS only provided data through the melt season (March to September).
  6. I did a post a few years back on the relationship between Arctic sea ice extent and the winter CET, with some 500hPa charts and whatnot. You can read it here, might be relevant to some of the discussions in this thread.
  7. Latest weekly Arctic sea ice extent update is here
  8. Minimum today is 4.6C while maxima look like being around the mid 11s, so a chance of dropping o 10.8C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 10.8C to the 24th (9.4: +0.0) 10.7C to the 25th (9.4: +0.0) 10.7C to the 26th (11.2: +1.6) 10.8C to the 27th (12.3: +2.5) 10.9C to the 28th (12.8: +3.0) 10.9C to the 29th (11.5: +2.6) 10.9C to the 30th (11.9: +2.7) 10.8C to the 31st (7.4: -1.9) Some mild days being balanced out by slightly most cooler nights over the next week or so, with the GFS then finishing off the month with a sharp drop in temps as a northerly sets in. At this stage, I'd say 10.4C to 11.1C before corrections, and 10.0C to 11.1C after corrections looks likely.
  9. 6.3C for me, thanks.
  10. Below is the November CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black. The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 10.3 and 11.3C after corrections. The average November following Octobers within that range is 6.2C. The linear trend for the whole record is +0.37C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 6.7C. The linear trend since 1850 is +1.22C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 7.4C. The linear trend since 1950 is +2.19C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 7.7C. The linear trend over the last 50 years is +3.43C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 7.9C. The linear trend over the last 30 years is +4.60C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 8.0C. November has seen a remarkable level of warming in recent decades. The current 30 year, at 7.32C, is the warmest on record and 0.5C warmer than just 18 years ago. Impressive considering the 62 years between 1744 and 1805 didn't manage a single November warmer than 7.2C. We haven't had a November below 4C since 1923, the longest such stretch on record. The 14 years between 1910 and 1923 saw 4 Novembers below 4C.
  11. Minimum today is 7.5C, while maxima were around the high 13s, so a drop to 11.2C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at: 11.1C to the 20th (9.7: -0.1) 11.0C to the 21st (9.0: -0.6) 11.0C to the 22nd (9.1: -0.8) 10.9C to the 23rd (9.1: -0.5) 10.8C to the 24th (9.3: -0.1) 10.8C to the 25th (9.5: +0.1) 10.7C to the 26th (9.1: -0.5) 10.7C to the 27th (10.3: +0.5) 10.7C to the 28th (11.1: +1.3) Slightly below average temps causing the CET to slowly fall over the coming week. Beyond that, a slight warm up at the end of the month may take us back up close to 11C. Using the provisional CET mean temps so far, here's the range of values based on the daily CET from all previous years, with the 30 year mean, forecast, and upper and lower 90% values marked out (warmest and coolest 10% of mean CET days). Below is the same but with the starting point for the other years being after the forecast values for the next 5 days. Still refining the graphs, so they'll likely keep changing over the coming few weeks.
  12. The minimum today is 8.1C while maxima look like reaching the mid 15s, so we should remain on 11.2C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 11.3C to the 17th (12.6: +2.6) 11.2C to the 18th (10.1: +0.0) 11.2C to the 19th (10.2: +0.2) 11.1C to the 20th (10.4: +0.6) 11.0C to the 21st (8.9: -0.7) 11.0C to the 22nd (9.3: -0.6) 10.9C to the 23rd (10.7: +1.0) 10.9C to the 24th (10.5: +1.1) 11.0C to the 25th (12.5: +3.1) Close to average for the next week, then the GFS trending more to above average conditions. I've been trying out a few ways of of showing the forecast in a more graphical form today. Such as seeing what the the potential CET outcomes if 2016 was to follow the daily values of every other year on record: But that gets a bit messy. Trying to clean it up a little bit gives something like this But it's still not quite right. I'll play around with this over the next while to try make it more clear while still providing more info. If anyone has any suggestions go ahead
  13. Latest weekly sea ice extent update is here
  14. We're hosting another hurricane related AMA (Q&A) over on ----------------------------------------- Science AMA Series: Hi Reddit, I'm Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. I'm here to talk about the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season specifically as well as any other hurricane/typhoon related questions you have. Ask me anything! I am Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. I worked for over 15 years with the late Dr. Bill Gray, a renowned scientist who conducted groundbreaking studies in hurricane genesis, structure and intensity change as well as pioneering Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction. While our Tropical Meteorology Project is best known among the general public for the seasonal hurricane predictions, I conduct research on a variety of hurricane-related topics including shorter-term prediction as well as potential future changes in tropical cyclone activity driven both by natural variability as well as anthropogenic causes. I maintain a very active presence on social media through my Twitter feed (@philklotzbach) where I provide frequent updates on current global tropical cyclone activity and compare them with historical statistics. I also maintain global real-time hurricane statistics. In cooperation with the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, I helped create arepository of all publicly-available seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin from various government agencies, universities and private forecasting companies. Currently, I am working on a variety of research projects, including the generation of an updated global tropical cyclone climatology as well as a paper on the life and legacy of Dr. Gray. I am also closely monitoring the potential shift away from the active Atlantic hurricane era that we have been in since 1995. I was lead author on a paper last year that raised the question that we might be moving out of the active era for Atlantic hurricanes. I look forward to chatting with you about all things hurricane! I’ll be back at noon EST (9 am PST, 5 pm UTC) to answer your questions, ask me anything! ------------------------------------------
  15. Not the nicest weather recently, drizzly and cool. Rather boring really.