CET competition time!
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About BornFromTheVoid

  • Birthday 28/03/88

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    South Tipperary, 125m asl
  • Interests
    Climate and weather, music, Formula 1, rugby, a few other sports and sciences.
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    Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms

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  1. With a min of 11.7C and a max of around 21C, we should remain on 17.1C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 17.1C to the 30th (17.6: +2.1) 17.1C to the 31st (17.5: +2.3) Looks quite likely to finish on 17.1C now, but still 17.0C to 17.2C possible, and 16.6C to 17.2C after corrections.
  2. Latest Arctic sea ice updates here and here
  3. Here's how the 1930 heatwave looked with regard to the CET stats up to that year. Here's how it compares to modern stats
  4. The 06z GFS would have the CET close to record warm for the first third or so of the month, while the MO are going for a warm settled spell in the 2nd half of September...
  5. Min today of 14.5C, while maxima look like hitting about 22C, so remaining on 17.1C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 17.1C to the 29th (17.3: +2.0) 17.1C to the 30th (17.4: +1.9) 17.2C to the 31st (17.8: +2.6) A finish of 17.0C to 17.3C before corrections, and 16.6C to 17.3C after corrections most likely.
  6. Looks like it could be around the 5th warmest final 10 days too, at 18.3C. Current top 5 being 1955: 19.3C 1984: 19.2C 1947: 18.6C 1949: 18.5C 1976: 18.2C Downward corrections and and the GFS inaccuracy will play a role though.
  7. Min today of 12.8C, while maxima look like getting close to 22C, so likely remaining on 17.1C, with a slight change of 17.2C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 17.2C to the 27th (17.8: +2.4) 17.2C to the 28th (19.1: +4.0) 17.2C to the 29th (17.6: +2.3) 17.3C to the 30th (17.6: +2.1) 17.3C to the 31st (18.6: +3.4) The max yesterday was way down on predictions too, just 19.9C. The GFS has gone a bit warmer for the remainder of the month, and so 17.3C is still the predicted end. At this stage, 17.0C to 17.6C before corrections is likely, and 16.6C to 17.6C after corrections
  8. Perfect summer weather the last 2 days here. Low 20s by day, high single figures by night and clear skies throughout.
  9. Maxima yesterday was way down on what the GFS was showing. The forecast was for 30C about 5 days ago, down to low 25s the morning of and final max was just 23.9C. Anyway, next few days look a little cooler, but the final 3 days look a little warmer, so still a finish of 17..2 or 17.3C before corrections expected.
  10. Here's the subsurface anomalies. Quite a lot going on
  11. Min today of 15.0C, while maxima look like hitting the low 25s, so an increase to 17.3C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 17.3C to the 25th (20.6: +4.9) [Record High: 20.9C] 17.3C to the 26th (18.3: +2.6) 17.3C to the 27th (17.2: +1.8) 17.3C to the 28th (15.4: +0.3) 17.3C to the 29th (17.3: +2.0) 17.2C to the 30th (16.4: +0.9) 17.2C to the 31st (17.6: +2.4) No record yesterday, and barring maxima being way higher than expected, there'll be no record today. Tomorrow has a slight chance though. GFS has gone a little cooler overall, finishing on 17.2C. However, at this time a range of 16.9C to 17.5C is still possible, with about 16.5C to 17.5C after corrections.
  12. Yep, climate change, especially wrt the Arctic, is my main area of interest. Hence my posting in the climate area here. Well, it's 11% going by the skin fold calipers, so I guess in reality it could be anything up to 13% or so. I'm about the same body fat % as this time last year, but I'm 13lbs heavier, so it's pretty good progress. I'm not really one for posting photos of myself online, so I doubt I'll ever show off my physique here! What kind of calorie surplus will you aim to have during your bulking phase? Cutting since early April so it will be 5 months when I finish. Then once I move to Newcastle, I'll be able to sample the local delicacies as part of my bulk up!
  13. Minimum today is 14.1C, while maxima look like reaching the low 27s, so an increase to 17.0C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 17.2C to the 24th (20.6: +4.5) [Record High: 21.5C] 17.3C to the 25th (20.3: +4.6) 17.4C to the 26th (18.5: +2.8) 17.4C to the 27th (18.8: +3.4) 17.5C to the 28th (19.7: +4.5) 17.4C to the 29th (15.5: +0.2) 17.4C to the 30th (15.2: -0.3) 17.3C to the 31st (17.0: +1.8) We'd require a max today of at least 30C just to equal the record high, so that appears unlikely. Several of the next few days may reach the top 5, but none look likely to break any records now. At this stage, I'd hazard a guess of 16.9C to 17.7C before corrections, and 16.5C to 17.7C after corrections.
  14. Things are going pretty well overall, but I've developed some plantar fasciitis in my left foot, which makes walking barefoot quite painful at times. I can still workout and do most cardio though, so it doesn't matter too much for now. To answer your questions from before, the PhD will be about monitoring and modelling Arctic permafrost cliffs. So some Arctic summer field work to look forward to! Would you be up for doing the great north run next year maybe? I think I'll aim to give that a shot! The start of a bulk is nice! I've about 4 weeks left of cutting, then slow bulk from September though to March.. I'm currently down to about 167.5lbs and 11% body fat
  15. Yep, very much in agreement with my estimate from the 12z, 20.1C average to Saturday, then 16.4C average for the remaining 4 days, giving 17.34C overall. Today's 0z is a touch warmer too.