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BornFromTheVoid

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BornFromTheVoid last won the day on October 10 2018

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  1. Can anybody give me a single, reasonable idea that David Icke has produced that is based on reasoning and evidence, and not hand-wavy, vague and emotive rhetoric?
  2. There was some variability between the different time periods, like a slowish retreat from 1950 to 1971, which meant that the overall slowdown wasn't quite statistically significant. However, especially when compared with other similar regions where retreat is accelerating, it was still enough implicate changes in ground ice.
  3. Samuel Hayes travelled to the Tuktoyaktuk in the western Canadian Arctic to research how climate change and ice melt is causing the collapse of the Arctic coastline. Read the full article
  4. Thought this might be of interest to some...
  5. I think we're largely in agreement! There isn't much to suggest that there is only warm air aloft, but the warmth is only manifesting itself in terms of ice melt rather than raising surface air temperatures, due to the nature of large continuous ice surfaces. When we have strong surface level winds and warm enough surface temperatures, the air can rise a little more above 0C, as occurred last week with the 80N temperature. Similar on the edges of the ice pack. Basically, surface air temperatures aren't a good measure to the air mass warmth in these situations, especially away from ice free land masses. This is why the 850hPa or 925hPa values are used in analysis by NSIDC and such. No expectation that this will cause dramatic changes in extent and area, as you say, but it will keep the volume melt momentum up. As volume is basically at joint record low values, this may have growing implications during August and early September, even for extent and area.
  6. They are pegged near 0C due to the latent heat of fusion of ice, not because of a lack of heat. Any surface heat goes into melting the ice, not rising the surface air temperatures. No matter how much surface heat there is, the temperature won't rise above 0C much until the ice has mostly melted. It's the same reason why the summer temperatures in the DMI 80N graphs never travel much above 0C The 850hPa anomalies over the ice for the next 5 days are similar to what the UK will experience, which provides a sense of how anomalous the air mass is. This isn't to say that we are guaranteed to reach lowest on record, or even 2nd lowest, but that the conditions currently are far from being as friendly to the ice as they appear at first glance.
  7. Heat is a relative term, right? Heat in the UK isn't heat in Kuwait. Similar for the north of Greenland. This is an anomalously warm air mass and will continue to keep temperatures above freezing and eat away at the remaining volume at a faster than normal rate. The southerly flow is a good thing for the ice only in terms of extent and area based on previous decades of dipole anomaly studies. It hard for me to see how it will help the ice this time around. it's surrounded by warmer waters and +ve temperatures anomalies persist over the remaining ice. I don't think we need dramatic anti-cyclones or powerful storms for conditions to be poor for ice retention.
  8. Forecast for the next few days. The heat focused almost entirely on the remaining thick ice.
  9. A few animations below. First is the north coast of Greenland over the last 7 days, with the ice seperating from the shoreline and dropping in concentration. The next is the Beaufort sea region. What seemed like highly resilient ice has been dropping in concentration rapidly since the storm. Higher-res versions are in the twitter page in my signature.
  10. The anomaly is down to negligible values, so not quite shocked, but a little surprised!
  11. Concentration dropping quite a bit in just north of Greenland. This is somewhat concerning, given it's where some of the thickest ice should be.
  12. Latest poll to see how we think the Arctic sea ice melt season will go this year. As we all know, extent has plummeted in recent week, setting record low values and beating the previous years by over half a million km2 at times. Will this continue, or are there more surprises to come? As before, the data will be based on the NSIDC extent measures. They provide excel spreadsheets here that contain all of their daily data. Below are the values for the last 10 minima, in millions of km2 2019: 4.1 2018: 4.6 2017: 4.6 2016: 4.1 2015: 4.4 2014: 5.0 2013: 5.0 2012: 3.3 2011: 4.3 2010: 4.6 From the April poll, the average of 22 votes was 4.1 million km2, with a 90% range from 2.5 to 5.7. From the May poll, the average of 15 votes was 4.0 million km2, with a 90% range from 3.2 to 4.9. From the June poll, the average of 14 votes was 3.7 million km2, with a 90% range from 3.3 to 4.2. From the July poll, the average of 13 votes was 3.5 million km2, with a 90% range from 3.1 to 4.0.
  13. Yep, no doubt now that the storm did some serious damage. This should help to carry the melt momentum into August, especially with the -ve dipole now in full swing. I'd be shocked if the next PIOMAS update isn't lowest on record.
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