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BornFromTheVoid

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BornFromTheVoid last won the day on August 26 2016

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About BornFromTheVoid

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  • Gender
    Male
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    Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Interests
    Climate and weather, music, Formula 1, rugby, a few other sports and sciences.
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    Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms

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  1. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Yesterday was 10.0C provisionally, so still no sub 10C days. The 06z GFS has upped the mildness for the remainder of the month, with the rolling CET remaining in the low to mid 13s through to the end of the run. It could also set a few more daily records along the way, with the 24th, 25th and 26th most at risk.
  2. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Just of note, if the max today isn't 13.2C or above, we'll have our first provisional sub 10C day of the season.
  3. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Now that the MO have updated, we currently have 2 provisional records for the 14th and 16th. These are 17.4C and 16.2C, beating the respective previous records of 16.1C and 15.8C. The minimum for the 14th was just 0.4C below the daily record mean! The latest GFS has the CET gradually dropping to 13.4C and staying around there until the end of the run. So a record warm month is still on the cards.
  4. Hurricane Ophelia

    One dead from a tree falling on a car in Waterford. Another from a chainsaw accident in Tipperary.
  5. Hurricane Ophelia

  6. Hurricane Ophelia

    That would be a good back up. Doesn't quite have the same elevation as Cape Clear, but it would have better accommodation!
  7. Hurricane Ophelia

    I'd recommend getting out to Cape Clear island (off the south coast of Cork) the day before by boat. Did it February 2 years ago before a biggish Atlantic storm and got some great photos. I imagine the shots possible from Ophelia would be incredible!
  8. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Potential for some incredibly warm weather for the time of year over the next week or so, with the latest GFS suggesting the daily records for the 14th, 15th, and 16th are very much at risk. Date Forecast Current Record 14th……..17.4C…………16.1C 15th……..16.9C…………15.7C 16th……..18.9C…………15.8C The forecast average for those 3 days is 17.9C. This is remarkable given the latest date that a single daily CET of 17C or higher has been recorded previously is October 11th. That value of 18.9C for the 16th would be the latest date a CET of 18C or more has been recorded by 10 days, beating the previous 19.0C from the 6th recorded in 1921. Of course, there are forecasts subject to change, especially as it’s a tropical/ex-tropical system carrying this warmth northward, but the given the potential it will be fascinating to see how things pan out.
  9. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    No signs of any cool weather on the horizon yet. Only 2 years have made through August, September, and October without recording a daily CET of under 10C - 2001 and 2006, both of which had their streak ended on November 1st 6 other years have made it as far as October 20th, and 27 others as far as October 10th. So far there are no signs of a daily CET under 10C on the horizon.
  10. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    No update from Hadley, but latest GFS would have the CET at close to 12.7C to the 10th, and staying around the high 12s through to the 13th.
  11. I'm sure there is a lot more behind their forecasts that they don't release. Seeing as it's specifically for contingency planners, they're probably not too concerned with the detailed methodology, just the probability of different seasonal weather patterns occurring. A bit frustrating for amateur enthusiasts though, I agree.
  12. That's just the reality of forecasting. When there are knowns, uncertainties, unknowns, and unknown unknowns - probabilities are as good as you can really get. "Forecasters" that tell you it will certainly be one way or the other months in advance are the ones that should be ignored. Better to give the probabilities as they are than to embellish for a false sense of certainty.
  13. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Pretty mild start by the GFS. Still a long way out, but high 12s after the first week is the current forecast. For now, I'll take a stab at 11.2C
  14. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Latest GFS has the CET climbing back to 13.9C by the 29th, but dropping to 13.8C after a chilly final day. I'd say anything from 13.6C to 14.0C is still possible before corrections and 13.3 to 14.1C after corrections. A warmer second half than first now looking unlikely.
  15. Arctic Ice Data And Stats.

    Update for the week to September 23rd The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,814,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,839,000km2. (All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average) The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,589,000km2, a decrease from -1,625,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +683,000km2, an increase from +638,000km2 last week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, down from 7th lowest last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was +22.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +17.6k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +16.3k/day.The average long term change over the next week is +43.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +29.9k/day. The extent change so far this September is the 20th least negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 123.0k/day is required (more than 167.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 30.6k/day (drop of at least -47.7k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 40.8k/day (52.2k/day with single day values). The 5 day average value of 4,635,000km2 from the 13th is likely to be the minimum for the year. This is the 8th lowest on record.
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