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BornFromTheVoid

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BornFromTheVoid last won the day on October 10

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About BornFromTheVoid

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    Male
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    Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Interests
    Climate and weather, music, Formula 1, rugby, a few other sports and sciences.
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    Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms

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  1. BornFromTheVoid

    Arctic Sea Ice - The Refreeze 2018/19

    While the SSW certainly had a big impact, it's easy to read too much into the temperature variations afterwards, especially as huge swings can happen with regular changing weather patterns anyway. However, a related paper might be of some interest. What caused the remarkable February 2018 North Greenland Polynya? During late February and early March 2018, an unusual polynya was observed off the north coast of Greenland. This period was also notable for the occurrence of a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Here we use satellite and in‐situ data, a reanalysis and an ice‐ocean model to document the evolution of the polynya and its synoptic forcing. We show that its magnitude was unprecedented and that it was associated with the transient response to the SSW leading to anomalous warm southerly flow in north Greenland. Indeed, regional wind speeds and temperatures were the highest during February going back to the 1960s. There is evidence that the thinning sea ice has increased its wind‐driven mobility. However, we show that the polynya would have developed under thicker ice conditions representative of the late 1970s and that even with the predicted trend towards thinner sea ice, it will only open during enhanced southerly flow. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080902 And a summary of the paper https://phys.org/news/2018-12-sudden-stratospheric-linked-polar-ice.html
  2. BornFromTheVoid

    Arctic Sea Ice - The Refreeze 2018/19

    Hi, Volume has increased at a much faster than average rate over the late Autumn. From 4th lowest to 6th lowest (for the time of year). We'll need a colder winter over the Arctic than we've seen in recent years in order to keep the good volume growth up. The SSW coming up may scupper the chances of that occurring though.
  3. BornFromTheVoid

    Arctic Sea Ice - The Refreeze 2018/19

    Who's getting carried away here? Do I really have to add the qualifier "for the time of year" every time I references the current state of the ice? Surely we're all capable of using context? ADS extent now down to 2nd lowest on record for the time of year, despite some larger than average gains for the time of year in recent days. With Hudson Bay now almost completely frozen over, where will the big increases for the time of year come from next? I think we need the Pacific side to start pulling its weight for the time of year if we want to avoid reaching lowest on record for the time of year before years end. Gets a bit cumbersome and tedious after a while!
  4. BornFromTheVoid

    Arctic Sea Ice - The Refreeze 2018/19

    ADS extent now down to 2nd lowest on record, despite some larger than average gains in recent days. With Hudson Bay now almost completely frozen over, where will the big increases come from next? I think we need the Pacific side to start pulling its weight if we want to avoid reaching lowest on record before years end.
  5. Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 8.0C to the 11th... +2.8 (5.9: +1.7) 7.9C to the 12th... +2.8 (5.9: +1.7) 7.5C to the 13th... +2.4 (3.2: -1.4) 7.1C to the 14th... +2.1 (1.6: -2.8) 6.9C to the 15th... +1.9 (4.5: -0.1) 6.8C to the 16th... +1.8 (4.9: +0.3) 6.7C to the 17th... +1.8 (6.0: +1.6) 6.7C to the 18th... +1.8 (6.4: +2.0) 6.7C to the 19th... +1.8 (6.4: +2.1) 6.6C to the 20th... +1.8 (5.5: +1.8) A much cooler outlook compared to last week, but still a little above average overall.
  6. Hi huang, welcome to to forum. It's worth adding your location to your profile, especially if you'll be posting weather updates in here.
  7. BornFromTheVoid

    CET Series Image

    Was playing about with the CET data today. Made a colour coded image of the monthly values with a few notable dates and periods highlighted. Not sure what to do with it, so I thought I'd post it in here! Zoomed in you can see the individual monthly values and dates, while zoomed out provides and good overview of the warm and cold phases throughout the record, especially the exceptional post 1988 warmth. I'll probably add more to it, turn it into an infographic type thing. Any suggestions just let me know.
  8. It's been a while since I set up one of these, so how about a new one as we look towards 2019? Below are the maximum values since 2010 (in millions km2), while current extent is about 3rd lowest on record. The data is from the ADS website 80s: 15.6 90s: 15.07 00s: 14.67 2010: 14.69 2011: 14.13 2012: 14.71 2013: 14.52 2014: 14.45 2015: 13.94 2016: 13.96 2017: 13.88 2018: 13.89 The last 4 years have been the 4 lowest on record. Will we follow course or buck the trend next year? The poll will remain open until the end of the month.
  9. Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 8.6C to the 7th.... +3.0 (10.6: +5.8) 8.6C to the 8th.... +3.1 (8.7: +4.3) 8.6C to the 9th.... +3.2 (8.3: +3.8) 8.4C to the 10th... +3.2 (6.9: +2.6) 8.4C to the 11th... +3.2 (7.9: +3.7) 8.2C to the 12th... +3.1 (6.5: +2.3) 8.1C to the 13th... +3.1 (6.9: +2.3) 8.2C to the 14th... +3.2 (9.6: +5.2) 8.2C to the 15th... +3.2 (8.0: +3.4) 8.2C to the 16th... +3.2 (7.4: +2.8) Consistently mild to very mild, but no exceptional individual days. Overall, we're on target to see the first half of the month in the 15 warmest on record though.
  10. BornFromTheVoid

    Arctic Sea Ice - The Refreeze 2018/19

    Looks 1 more stalled day will have it back to 2nd lowest on record. Here's the gaps to the years below us and the gains they had for the 5th Year: __Gap__ Gain for 5th 2017: ...53k......... +68k 2010:__97k......... +138k 2006:_171k......... +173k 2016:_583k......... +18k A 2k minimum increase to prevent 2nd lowest on tomorrows update.
  11. Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 8.3C to the 4th... +2.4 (4.4: -1.7) 8.1C to the 5th... +2.2 (7.5: +1.4) 8.6C to the 6th... +2.8 (10.6: +5.6) 9.1C to the 7th... +3.4 (12.1: +7.3) [Record High 12.3C in 1856] 9.0C to the 8th... +3.5 (8.3: +3.9) 8.7C to the 9th... +3.3 (6.5: +2.0) 8.0C to the 10th... +2.8 (2.1: -2.2) 7.4C to the 11th... +2.3 (1.5: -2.7) 6.9C to the 12th... +1.8 (0.7: -3.5) 6.4C to the 13th... +1.4 (1.0: -3.6) The CET looks set to rise the next towards the weekend before plummeting early next week. In the meantime, a chance of seeing yet another warm record go on Friday.
  12. BornFromTheVoid

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    The thermosphere contains less that 0.01% of the Earths air, despite ranging up to 1,000km in thickness. The air there is so sparse that most of it is considered outer space, and even when it's over 2,000C, you'd freeze because there not enough air to conduct the heat. As such, there's no known link between temperature variations at that elevation and weather at the surface.
  13. BornFromTheVoid

    Arctic Sea Ice - The Refreeze 2018/19

    We've dropped from 13th lowest extent to joint 6th lowest in little over a week, on ADS. Some ice loss in the Kara Sea, Chukchi and Bering refusing to freeze while Hudson bay ice growth prevents any significant daily losses overall. Lots of southerly winds into the Barents and Kara sea over the next week, so likely to see no growth or some losses there. Hudson bay switches from cold to mild (relatively) during the week, while the Chukchi and Bering Seas get some cold northerlies, so hopefully they finally see some decent growth.
  14. Ok everyone, back on topic please. And while the main focus of this thread is solar influences, please refrain from parroting climate contrarian talking points please, especially if you want to maintain the ability to keep posting here.
  15. Sorry, one of those situations where a "/s" was needed at the end. My comment was entirely factitious I'm certain they have a perfectly valid explanation for the correction applied, the same as every month.
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