BornFromTheVoid

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BornFromTheVoid last won the day on August 26 2016

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About BornFromTheVoid

  • Birthday 28/03/88

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    Newcastle Upon Tyne
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    Climate and weather, music, Formula 1, rugby, a few other sports and sciences.
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  1. Often this early in the melt season the dipole pattern tends to have a small impact on extent/area with compaction being balanced by ice spreading out elsewhere, and the input of warm air over the Arctic ocean not quite capable of dramatic melting yet. It does prime the ice for greater losses later in the season. Latest forecasts are going for high pressure dominating in early June which is a worst case scenario type situation, especially if the pattern becomes stubborn. Having the bare ice sheet exposed to 24 hour sun while at it's strongest will likely produce widespread melt ponding. If we get a prolonged high pressure spell it is likely to manifest first as large drops in area as the sensors mistake melt ponds for open water, with the warming surface waters then contributing to much greater losses in ice coverage as the season goes on, regardless of weather conditions - like 2012.
  2. 15.2C thanks
  3. Update for the week to May 28th The current 5 day trailing average is on 12,278,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,215,000km2. (All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average) The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -612,000km2, a decrease from -651,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -126,000km2, a decrease from -200,000km2 last week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, down from 5th lowest last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was -37.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -50.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -54.1k/day. The average long term change over the next week is -51.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -52.5k/day. The extent loss so far this May is the 7th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 244.6k/day is required (more than -457.5k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 80.6k/day (at least 192.8k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 75.6k/day (119.6k/day with single day values).
  4. Update for the week to May 20th The current 5 day trailing average is on 12,543,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,514,000km2. (All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average) The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -651,000km2, a decrease from -672,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -200,000km2, a decrease from -241,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, the same as last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was -39.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -44.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -47.1k/day. The average long term change over the next week is -50.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -54.1k/day. The extent loss so far this May is the 8th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 113.2k/day is required (more than -134.9k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 5.3k/day (at least 9.6k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 51.5k/day (59.8k/day with single day values).
  5. Update for the week to May 13th The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,070,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,079,000km2. (All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average) The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -672,000km2, a decrease from -736,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -241,000km2, a decrease from -271,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 3rd lowest last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was -34.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -43.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -38.4k/day. The average long term change over the next week is -44.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -47.1k/day. The extent loss so far this May is the 12th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 85.2k/day is required (more than -86.6k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 12.8k/day (less than 5.3k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 47.5k/day (44.4k/day with single day values).
  6. The latest report suggests late 2030s, not 2070, the Arctic may be largely free of ice during summer. Here's a link to the summary for policy makers version (not sure where the full one is): http://www.amap.no/documents/doc/Snow-Water-Ice-and-Permafrost.-Summary-for-Policy-makers/1532 As GW mentioned. the general consensus position has shifted from ice free September (<1 million km2) by the end of this century to around mid century over the last 20 years, as the sea ice has declined quicker than most projections. Of course there will always be random studies suggesting early or later dates, which is why looking at the consensus is still important. You also need to consider whether a study is looking at extent, area, volume, a single day, month or season. The latest report mentions ice free "summer" by the late 30s, rather than just an ice free September, which would suggest an ice free September perhaps in the next decade, well ahead of the consensus position. Once more though, we'd need to look at the full report to see exactly what they mean by "summer" and "ice free".
  7. The "pause" with the Met Office estimate for this year. Made by wipneus.
  8. From the NASA fire chart, looks like there's a cluster of wildfires in that location. https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/?x=130.03125&y=-18.731250000000003&z=6&g=g&v=6&r=1&i=nw&l=ad,ct If you switch between the timeframes and data sources you'll see quite a large number of fires over the last week.
  9. Update for the week to May 6th The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,070,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,079,000km2. (All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average) The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -736,000km2, a decrease from -790,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -271,000km2, a decrease from -346,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, down from 2nd lowest last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was -53.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -61.6k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -64.6k/day. The average long term change over the next week is -43.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -38.4k/day. The extent loss so far this May is the 14th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 70.9k/day is required (more than -77.3k/day with with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 18.8k/day (less than 20.8k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 43.8k/day (48k/day with single day values). The extent loss in April was the 3rd smallest on record, while the average extent was the 2nd lowest on record.
  10. Interesting to note that if we had a year where each day we equaled the record high for the daily mean, we'd have an annual CET of 16.5C, similar to Naples, Italy. Conversely, if we equaled the record low daily mean each day we'd finish the year on about 2.0C, similar to the annual temperature of Anchorage, Alaska.
  11. A 0.36C downward correction, so a relatively big one. The 9th saw an upward correction from 13.3C to 13.7C, which makes it the warmest April 9th on record by 0.2C. No other days made it into their respective top or bottom 5.
  12. Update for the week to April 29th The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,587,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,493,000km2. (All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average) The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -790,000km2, a decrease from -935,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -346,000km2, a decrease from -515,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, the same as last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was -20.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -40.7k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -44.2k/day. The average long term change over the next week is -43.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -45.2k/day. The extent loss so far this April is the 4th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 898.5k/day is required (more than -4,457.1k/day with with single day values), while the smallest drop an increase of at least than 25.5k/day (at least 161.9k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 385.2k/day (1,891.0k/day with single day values).
  13. 11.9C for me, thanks.
  14. Very likely to finish about 9.2C before corrections. The GFS continues to underestimate both the maximum and minimum by several degrees.
  15. I haven't got much time for the usual updates so I'll keep this a bit short. The 12z GFS would have a CET of about 8.9C (8.87) before corrections. Most of the minima have been higher than forecast during this cold spell, with the last 2 minima about 2C higher, so I wouldn't be surprised if we actually finish the month closer to 9C.