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BornFromTheVoid

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BornFromTheVoid last won the day on October 10 2018

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About BornFromTheVoid

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Interests
    Climate and weather, music, Formula 1, rugby, a few other sports and sciences.
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms

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  1. With a minimum of 8.5C, today only needs a max of 12.8C to set a new (provisional) daily record. A max of 14.4C or higher will put us up with the 10 warmest February days ever recorded!
  2. Latest forecast. Same graph as yesterday first, and a new one with the 2019 mean, 81-10 mean, record high and low, and top and bottom 3, and 10. Latest 06z is a tad warmer than yesterday, with a final value of 7.1C forecast, and an upper and lower range of 7.5 and 6.5C (all before corrections). We will come close to breaking some records for the next week, starting tomorrow, when the mean CET is forecast to equal the record high value for the day of 10.6C.
  3. CET forecast to the end of the month So, the graph above has the max and min, both provisional and forecast, in red and blue respectively. The mean daily CET is in green, and the cumulative average is in grey/white (with light red and light blue for the likely upper and lower ranges). Finally, the 81-10 rolling average CET is in orange. At the moment, the 06z GFS has a finish of about 7.0C and I estimate an range of 7.5C to 6.1C. The low end is further from the forecast as the remainder of the month is likely to have several days close to record highs, so it's unlikely the GFS is over estimating temperatures by a lot. On the other hand, a subtle change could cause the final few days to be much cooler than currently forecast, hence the potential for finishing quite a bit lower than the 7.0C mean. I'll play around with a few formats and designs for these over the next few weeks. Let me know what alterations or additions might make them more useful. For example, I could remove the max and min and replace them with the record high and low averages for each day, or a top 10 and bottom 10 value, etc.
  4. BornFromTheVoid

    Arctic Sea Ice - The Refreeze 2018/19

    It's a battle between warmth over the Bering Sea and cold over Barents and Okhotsk. Personally, I think we could see a little more growth as most of the ice in Bering has already gone. Might creep over 14 million. Given the Atlantification of the Barents sea and the lack of ice in the Bering Sea, I doubt we'll hit the highs of 2010 or 2008 though.
  5. Assuming you're referring to the record warm maxima and not the record warm daily means, below are the forecast maxima (rounded to nearest 2/10ths) and records for the next 10 days. Likely record breakers (less than 1C off the record or greater than the record) are in bold 18th... 10.4C... Record = 15.0C 19th... 9.4C... Record = 13.5C 20th... 11.6C... Record = 14.1C 21st... 13.2C... Record = 13.2C 22nd...15.0C... Record = 13.9C 23rd... 15.2C... Record = 15.9C 24th... 15.4C... Record = 14.1C 25th... 14.6C... Record = 14.1C 26th... 14.4C... Record = 13.3C 27th... 13.8C... Record = 15.4C Only 8 previous February maxima have been 15C or higher, and no year has recorded more than 2, so the current forecast is quite exceptional. Also, so far this month we have a provisional record max for the 16th with 12.7C, beating the old record of 12.2C.
  6. JMA have January 2019 as the joint 2nd warmest on record (with 2017) 1st. 2016(+0.52°C), 2nd. 2019,2017(+0.39°C), 4th. 2015,2007,2002(+0.29°C) https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/jan_wld.html
  7. The 06z would have the CET on about 5.8C to the 20th, then 6.8C to the 25th, with the period of the 21st to the 25th averaging about 10.5C. Potential for a few daily records to go in the next 10 days, with tomorrow likely to be the first close call. The current record high mean for the 17th is 10.7C from 1878, while the GFS forecasts the mean for the 17th to be a little over 10C
  8. BornFromTheVoid

    Stopping Dangerous Global Warming

    Bunch of comments have been removed. If folks need to resort to conspiracy theories about climate change to make their point, there are plenty of forums and blogs that simply love that nonsense. This ain't one of them though. Please report blatant anti-science comments rather than reply to them. Cheers!
  9. BornFromTheVoid

    2019 Arctic Sea Ice Maximum Poll

    Sea ice growth booming in recent days once again, and now up to 13.954 million km2, and above the maxima of 2015, 2017 and 2018. No new records this time!
  10. Another study to add to the mix... Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability of atmospheric circulation outside of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. To understand and attribute this mode of variability is of great societal relevance for populated regions in Eurasia. It has been widely claimed that there is a robust signal of the nearly periodic 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, which thereby raises the possibility of using the solar cycle to predict the circulation years in advance. Here we present evidence that contradicts this claim. First, we show the absence of a solar signal in the North Atlantic Oscillation in the instrumental record prior to the mid-1960s, and a marginally significant signal thereafter. Second, from our analysis of a global chemistry–climate model repeatedly forced with the sequence of solar irradiance since the mid-1960s, we suggest that the solar signal over this period might have been a chance occurrence due to internal variability, and hence does not imply enhanced predictability. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3
  11. Many of the ENSO calls are based on the ONI index, whereby the 3.4 anomaly has to remain over +0.5 for 5 consecutive overlapping 3 month periods, so it takes a little while for one to be called officially and we've probably just passed that threshold. Additionally, the subsurface heat anomaly has been growing again over the last few weeks and there are some very strong westerly wind bursts coming up, all of which should help sustain or strengthen the current weak Nino conditions
  12. Looks like we're at the beginning of another El Nino
  13. BornFromTheVoid

    Running, Weight Training, Nutrition

    Ah yeah, I tend to forget that other areas have climates not so suitable for outdoor cardio in winter! One of the unappreciated advantages of the mild, boring winters here, eh?
  14. BornFromTheVoid

    Running, Weight Training, Nutrition

    Saw the weight loss thread and was reminded of this So, how's everyone getting on? I've personally been injured most of the last 2 years with a gammy left shoulder (related to my hypermobility and possibly my increasing use of gymnastics rings!), but I've made some good progress in the short non-injured periods.
  15. BornFromTheVoid

    weight lose thread

    It's all about calories in vs calories out - how much you consume vs how much you burn (unless you're one of the tiny percentage with a metabolic disorder!) As long as you burn more calories than you consume, you will lose weight - it's literally as simple as that. As a rule of thumb, for every 3,500kcal deficit you accumulate, you will lose 1lb of fat. That's the equivalent of 500kcal each day to lose 1lb per week. That could be an easy 30 minute jog each day for a 200lb person, or dropping a Big Mac from your diet each day. Over a year, that adds up to nearly 4 stone dropped! The tricky part is figuring out what way is easiest for you, and that can take some time. Some people find that gradual small lifestyle changes work best - such as swapping out carbs (pasta, rice, potatoes, chips, etc) for more vegetables, switching from sugary drinks to diet drinks or water, walking a little more instead of driving or using public transport. Things like that. Others prefer to eat lots of the foods they liked before, and so go down the route of doing lots of cardio exercises in order to burn lots of calories, with some strength training to reduce muscle loss (and keep your metabolism up). Many people hate exercise, and still want most of the foods they're used to! For them, some form of intermittent fasting works. There are loads of forms this can take, from only allowing yourself a reduced window each day when your eat, such as 12pm to 9pm, 3pm to 9pm, or some go even more extreme and allow themselves just 1 meal per day! Another form this can take is having fasting days, such as with the 5-2 diet. Whereby you have 2 "fasted" days each week (less than 500kcal each day) and then eat as you like on the other days! For some, the fads do actually work! For example, the Keto diet, which is very similar to the old Atkins diet, involves cutting down carbs to such an extent that your body adapts to having fat as it's main fuel source. You go through a transition phase that is difficult and called "keto flu" where carb cravings are bad and you might feel tired and groggy, but after that your body adjusts. The benefit of eating lots of fat and protein is it's much more satiating than simple carbs, and so people end up eating much less calories without realising it, simply because they feel more full more easily. So yeah, that just touched on some of the methods, but there's loads more and it's all about finding what you can stick to best!
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