Jump to content

BornFromTheVoid

Members
  • Content count

    9,698
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    24

BornFromTheVoid last won the day on August 26 2016

BornFromTheVoid had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

9,200 Exceptional

3 Followers

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Interests
    Climate and weather, music, Formula 1, rugby, a few other sports and sciences.
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms

Recent Profile Visitors

26,053 profile views
  1. Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18

    Oddens ice tongue is an area of sea ice off the Greenland coast near Jan Mayen, (orange box below). Doesn't seem to form nowadays though.
  2. Rolling CET Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg... (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 3.9C to the 14th... -1.1 (3.2: -1.2) 3.9C to the 15th... -1.1 (3.5: -1.1) 3.8C to the 16th... -1.2 (1.8: -2.8) 3.9C to the 17th... -1.1 (4.9: +0.5) 4.0C to the 18th... -0.9 (6.5: +2.1) 4.4C to the 19th... -0.5 (11.0: +6.7) 4.6C to the 20th... -0.2 (10.0: +6.3) 4.8C to the 21st... +0.0 (7.9: +3.7) 5.0C to the 22nd... +0.3 (10.0: +5.5) 5.1C to the 23rd... +0.3 (5.5: +0.8) A pretty impressive mild spell is now forecast for mid next week. If it comes off, the CET will very quickly move back above average, with a few daily records under threat too.
  3. Rolling CET Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg... (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 4.2C to the 12th... -0.9 (-0.4: -4.6) 4.0C to the 13th... -1.1 (1.7: -2.9) 3.9C to the 14th... -1.1 (2.9: -1.5) 3.8C to the 15th... -1.2 (2.2: -2.4) 3.6C to the 16th... -1.3 (1.4: -3.2) 3.6C to the 17th... -1.3 (2.8: -1.6) 3.6C to the 18th... -1.3 (4.2: -0.2) 3.8C to the 19th... -1.0 (7.5: +3.2) 4.0C to the 20th... -0.8 (7.8: +4.1) 4.2C to the 21st... -0.5 (8.3: +4.1)
  4. Despite the cold spell, and the forecast drop in the CET, it seems the CET won't dip too far below average for the foreseeable future. Anything from well below average to moderately above average is still very much possible, depending on what the 2nd half of the month throws at us. Below is what the 06z GFS today shows for the CET. Rolling CET Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg... (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 4.6C to the 11th -0.6C... (-0.3C: -4.5C) 4.2C to the 12th -0.9C... (0.5C: -3.7C) 4.0C to the 13th -1.0C... (1.6C: -3.0C) 4.0C to the 14th -1.1C... (3.0C: -1.4C) 3.9C to the 15th -1.1C... (3.3C: -1.3C) 3.8C to the 16th -1.1C... (2.6C: -2.0C) 3.8C to the 17th -1.1C... (3.6C: -0.8C) 3.7C to the 18th -1.2C... (2.4C: -2.0C) 3.7C to the 19th -1.2C... (3.3C: -1.0C) 3.8C to the 20th -1.0C... (5.2:C +1.5C) Below is a graph showing this month's rolling CET in blue (plus 10 day forecast, shown by the thinner line), with the 81-10 rolling CET in orange, and the daily recorded and predicted values for the next ten days as black points. The max and min of the CET so far are shown by the orange and purple points respectively.
  5. Cold, but not exceptionally so, for the next week to 10 days. The CET today is quite likely to be within 2C of the daily record (12.3C in 1856). To be that close to the daily record low, we'd need today to averaging around -4C! Anyway, the 06z GFS has the CET as follows: Rolling CET. Anomaly to 81-10 rolling CET.....(daily mean: anomaly to 81-10 daily mean) 7.1C to the 7th +1.4C......(10.6C: +5.8C) 6.5C to the 8th +1.0C......(2.3C: -2.1C) 5.8C to the 9th +0.4C......(0.6C: -3.9C) 5.3C to the 10th +0.0C.....(0.8C: -3.5C) 5.1C to the 11th -0.1C.....(2.7C: -1.5C) 4.8C to the 12th -0.3C.....(2.1C: -2.1C) 4.7C to the 13th -0.3C.....(3.5C: -1.1C) 4.6C to the 14th -0.5C.....(2.5C: -1.9C) 4.4C to the 15th -0.6C.....(2.1C: -2.5C) 4.3C to the 16th -0.7C.....(2.4C: -2.2C)
  6. 61-90 Rolling 81-10 Rolling 1st 4.8 4.8 5.8 5.8 2nd 5.2 5.0 5.8 5.8 3rd 5.1 5.0 6 5.9 4th 5.4 5.1 6.1 5.9 5th 5.7 5.2 6.1 6.0 6th 4.8 5.2 5 5.8 7th 5 5.1 4.8 5.7 8th 4.4 5.1 4.4 5.5 9th 4.7 5.0 4.5 5.4 10th 4.6 5.0 4.3 5.3 11th 4.9 5.0 4.2 5.2 12th 4.7 4.9 4.2 5.1 13th 5 4.9 4.6 5.1 14th 4.8 4.9 4.4 5.0 15th 4.8 4.9 4.6 5.0 16th 4.8 4.9 4.6 5.0 17th 4.5 4.9 4.4 4.9 18th 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.9 19th 4 4.8 4.3 4.9 20th 4.5 4.8 3.7 4.8 21st 5.3 4.8 4.2 4.8 22nd 5 4.8 4.5 4.8 23rd 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.8 24th 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.8 25th 4.3 4.8 4.5 4.8 26th 4.1 4.8 4.3 4.7 27th 4 4.8 3.9 4.7 28th 3.8 4.7 4.1 4.7 29th 4 4.7 3.9 4.7 30th 4.1 4.7 4.2 4.6 31st 4 4.7 4.4 4.6
  7. According to the 06z GFS, we should be about 0.8C above the 81-10 average after the first week (6.4C). After that, we see a rapid cool down to 0.6C below average by the 10th (4.7C) and 1.1C below by the 13th (4.0C)
  8. Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18

    It looks like that at some point almost every year and usually someone claims we're about to see an "ice bridge" form! The east Greenland current carries ice down the coast from the Fram Strait, where it usually melts close to Iceland. The thing to remember too is that extent, which is shown by the yellow ice on most of the maps posted here, only represents 15% ice coverage or more. So even if the yellow reached Iceland, it wouldn't be close to anything you could walk across. On the map posted by MS, if the red section starts getting close to the Icelandic coast, that would be rare!
  9. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Big downward correction this month, 0.41C, from 7.23 to 6.82C
  10. Lots of heavy snow showers since morning, but only a little settled here.
  11. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    If the maximum today is 4.4C or higher, we finish on 7.3C before corrections, anything else and we finish 7.2C. So at this stage, I'd say a finish of 6.8C to 7.3C after corrections.
  12. I'll guess 88.2mm for the rain comp too. My temp guess was 4.3C.
  13. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Little change in the outlook, very likely to finish on 7.2C before corrections, with just a small chance of landing either side of that. I'd suggest a finish of 6.8C to 7.3C when corrections are done, but best guess would be 7.1C.
  14. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    A cold end to the month looks likely to knock about 0.5C off the CET in the last 4 days. Most likely finish is now 7.2C before corrections (7.1C to 7.3C possible) and so 6.8C to 7.4C after corrections. Odds of 30/35/35 for below, equal to and above average (81-10 average being 7.1C).
×