Tuxedo

I’ve been on this site for a while and I never quite understand when in the Model Discussion people get so up beat and go…. BOOM…. GAME ON…. based on charts that are between 10 and 20 days away. With modern science where it is, a 5 day outlook is as accurate as it gets so anything beyond that is speculative. It’s fascinating looking at all the charts, meteorological jargon - real expertise BUT don’t get drawn into all the hype or down beat-ness. It really doesn’t mean a lot as charts that are 144 hr plus can’t be relied upon despite all the analysis and expertise. I’m sure it’s credible from credible members BUT meteorological science is such that to make accurate forecasts it doesn’t go beyond 5 days! I have learnt through many experiences of bitter disappointment having being convinced after reading the Model Thread we are in for a… DUMPING….BOOM CHARTS…. STELLA….. but then at the last it all goes pear shape and the charts come into the 5 day period when the models, science, nature all converge to give us a fairly accurate forecast. Ive learnt over the years reading the model thread and trying to predict weather 330hrs/240hrs with any accuracy is pure conjecture and should be seen as fun only and not something viewed with any degree of certainty or accuracy. Its a shame we aren’t going to have much snow in the foreseeable but the forecasting charts I was using was NEVER forecasting a cold period in the midlands southwards. Here is a very big tip for those that don’t want to get drawn into BOOM and STELLA charts that are outside the 5 day framework then my method of wanting to know what the weather is going to be and doesn’t (usually) lead to disappointment is to follow the 120hr Fax Charts that are produced by the met office and updated around 10pm every night. For fun then listen to all the scientific anaysis on the model thread but remember even the most experienced can’t predict with any accuracy the weather beyond a 5 day period.

All this High level blocking through the whole of April and into May. Fantastic winter Synoptics wasted. Its hard not to imagine what the weather would be like if this was happening in January. So frustrating.

Don’t give up hope for snow in our region yet because the as the low slips further SE and the easterly wind increases there is likelihood that ‘fingers’ of snow showers will develop and reach us especially overnight and tomorrow

I agree. I think we are now experiencing the real and practical change in our day to day weather effected by a global change. 15/20 years ago such a system would have bought heavy snow to the South as would have the other low that effected Southern England earlier in the week. The fact that an easterly wind is now news worthy is also significant in the way we view our weather. In the 70’s and 80’s an easterly wind that bought subzero temps wasn’t news worthy and calling it Beast from the East would have been un heard of as easterlies were much more common. News of snow and the subsequent consequences of course were reported but the easterly wind was not the news as it was a more common feature of our winters weather. Sadly the hunt for cold and snow in our winters are becoming a thing of the past. Rare and exceptional burst of cold will of course still occur and hence will be huge news but forums that focus on cold weather will become much quieter as our winters become Atlantic driven and milder and as the land masses warm up and the bite of any easterly will be less effective as a cold source.

I’m not saying we won’t continue to experience cold snaps but you are burying your head in the sand if you cannot see the effect of what GW is now having on our winters/climate. Mild, wet Atlantic driven weather is now the common denominator. Our planet is warming up and we are now physically experiencing this effect. It doesn’t mean we will no longer see snow or frosts but it’s becoming very obvious that this trend is diminishing. Any cold blocks are not sustainable when they do occur. You only have to look back 10 to 20 years to see this change. It disheartens me to write this as I love the seasons: Cold winters / warm summers with spring and autumn in between. Sadly even these differences are being eroded and the peaks in each season are being flattened and our temperate climate is becoming less temperate as GW increases.

The days have gone of severe cold. I am talking about more than 5 days of sub zero temps. All we get now are cold snaps with no longevity. It’s become very apparent that GW is the cause of this as temps rise across the planet and subsequently weather patterns shifting. I use to log on every model output and looking forward to nailing a cold spell. GW has changed all this and we have to accept now that snow and sub zero temps in the south is a thing of the past and thererfore ‘ the hunt for cold ‘ thread only really applies to the north and especially on high ground. I am not referring to this winter but all future winters. The days of blizzards and snow in the south that last for more than 2/3 days are over. Time to find a new winter hobby!

The days have gone of severe cold. I am talking about more than 5 days of sub zero temps. All we get now are cold snaps with no longevity. It’s become very apparent that GW is the cause of this as temps rise across the planet and subsequently weather patterns shifting. I use to log on every model output and looking forward to nailing a cold spell. GW has changed all this and we have to accept now that snow and sub zero temps in the south is a thing of the past and thererfore ‘ the hunt for cold ‘ thread only really applies to the north and especially on high ground. I am not referring to this winter but all future winters. The days of blizzards and snow in the south that last for more than 2/3 days are over. Time to find a new winter hobby!

If there is going to be another go at an easterly forget looking out in FI the models will pick it up suddenly and within the reliable. The weather won’t play to the models it will suddenly happen and the signals will come into focus within the reliable.

You really couldn't make it up! Here we are in May and we get the perfect winter synoptics. High level blocking, a deep low over the med and an easterly. If this was january this site would be buzzing with snow coming in for many. Instead here we are in May and its all waisted.

If Frosty is throwing in the towel we may as well all go home!... Worse than any 'flipping' chart!

Oh that's disappointing as his analysis was always interesting and informative... A great loss to a great team!

Isn't it around this time we expect a winter forecast from GP ( Glacier Point)?

I throw in a word of caution with regard to a possible patten change talked about on here and the strat thread. Remember in November we were saying there would be a pattern change end of month but the cold didn’t come despite model agreement albeit FI. Then it was going to be around the 20th Dec but it never quite fell into place for us again despite all the chat and favourable signals. We are now seeing the same expectation from the models where in FI it looks like another possible cold shot/pattern change. I know there are favourable scientific signals that this may well happen but REMEMBER its 2 weeks away and any forcast that far away has a low probability of happening regardless of any spin of scientific reasoning. The weather will do what it will and defy even the best forcasters and models amongst us. This post is targeted to those that do not have the years of experience to realise that discussing the likely weather we will have 2 weeks away is subject to unexpected changes when it comes into a reliable time frame (3 days). Just emember the probability rapidly reduces when we are looking at 240+and even noting trends at this timescale is subject to large changes until it becomes within the 3 day to max 5 day period when the probability of it happening rapidly increases and we can either start prepping sledges or dusting off the BBQ. Its easy to get carried away with the models, the expertise (of which there is a huge amount on here) but always remember it’s the weather we are dealing with that is not driven by a computer or scientific data. I hope I haven’t said anything out of turn and no offence intended, I just think it should be said as a reminder and a word of caution particulary to newcomers to this fascinating forum..

The current set up with a huge concrete block not far away to our east, early winter all make it likely that we will see sudden changes in the T24 -T96. The weather will be leading the models which will be playing catch up.

How you can right off the whole of December amazes me... So T200 + is set in stone then? Wow... Long range forecasting 5+ days has taken a turn. So good to know we can predict the weather 2 - 3 weeks accruacy with 100% confidence..... Do the farmers know this?

Remember folk it's still In FI and remember 'F' stands for fantasy so until its in at least the T48 -72 range you could be setting yourself up for a fall just like last week!

As Ian said earlier 5 days ago the EC32 was predicting below average temps and an easterly and that doesn't now look likely. So just because it's flipped to show a milder outlook it doesn't mean it will be correct.... It could easily flip again. I think ALL the models are under estimating the weight, depth and sheer lump of concrete to our east which is going to take some shifting. I dont think any forecast and model can predict where the battle line will lye until the war starts (friday)and like all battles this line will shift.... Very exciting weather ahead to watch... What ever your taste!

All I can add to those that are gutted by the lack of the anticipated cold that never materialised, if you want to avoid it happening again only look at or at least only consider charts that are within the T0 - T72 charts to deliver the weather they are predicting... As soon as you start looking beyond this timescale(; 2/3 days ) there accuracy drops of rapidly. Ignore all the hype that is generated from later charts no matter who the posts are from however if you enjoy the roller coaster ride of trying to predict and forecast the weather then soak it all in upto T240 but be prepared for the twist and turns to which I personally enjoy. A week in politics is said to be a long time a week in weather terms is an eternity away!

Can't we just use a computer mouse and drag the pesky highs and lows where want them. Would save so much stress!

I would like to express my dismay that the BBC are thinking of axing Rob McElwee. He is in my opinion one of the best weather presenters on the BBC. His forcasts are very clear and has a very friendly and warm style of presentation. He particulary brings a human touch to the forcast whether its a witty comment or just good sensible advice..... He makes watching a weather forcast more interesting and i would urge the BBC to reconsider there decision. Without Rob's forcasts the weather will not be the same!!

I'm not a regular poster on her but I do enjoy reading all the posts. I have done so for many years and have learnt much. Its a forum we can all be proud of and enjoy...So a huge thankyou to all the regulars here who have such knowledge and opinions about how our weather works. I cant begin to add more to what has already been said about what the current models are battling with. I dont have the scientific background or knowledge...However i thought this currently sums up the current model situation but in aless scientific approach:- The ECM and GFS are all a mess They cant agree on the low out West You see its typical of meteorology Posters views go up and down with probability There's the Nicks,Eyes in the Skies and even one called Glacier Point They all have there views of this low west of Hinkly Point. But know one really knows If it goes south... well it snows! If it goes north... it rains of course. But wait. Is that a Greeny High I see from the corner of my eye? Sorry mods if you think its off topic but it kind of sums up what the models are showing!

No worries..i thought it was cracking....I'd go and give the lamp post a boot but knowing the council the bulb would fall out and knock me out!!

you couldnt right it could you....The bulb has just blown in the lamp post outside my house!!..Now i have to resort to old fashioned methods of using a torch!!!....FYI - light snow just started in Brislington Bristol. As seen in the torch light!!

Light flurries currently in Brislington Bristol....

Just want to say to all those people who feel down beat about the lack of snow currently forcast for our area. DONT BE. This is the first winter for years we have had such synoptics that has the potential to produce snow. Most snow that falls is often not picked up by forcasters until within 6hr -24 hrs. The models are showing at least 10 - 15 days of cold. A huge amount of time for snow to crop up and surprise us all. Snow showers are possible fri and sat. Then there is a front down in the SW approaches come sun / mon that has huge potential for snow. I'm not trying to ramp things up but pointing out to those that are being down beat that there are exciting times ahead and when your least expecting it will snow buckets!!