Gord

Worked my train back to New Street (I’m a guard if you’re wandering). Part of my job is to stick my head out of the window as we leave stations to be a second pair of eyes for the driver. Was ok on the sheltered side going up to Wolverhampton. Brutal coming back with powdered snow stinging my face! Also noticed the snow settling on some of the platforms, notably Tipton where it was blowing around too.

Been at work all afternoon and evening working the trains. Been to Redditch, Lichfield and Walsall and have observed the same all over. Grey with a few flurries. At Wolverhampton station now waiting for the last run of my shift back to New Street, notice the flurries are a little more persistent here. I’m on evening shifts all week...could be interesting.

On the current trajectory, you’re right. We need to be looking in a line that goes through Nottingham and Lincoln and off the coast south of Grimsby. But don’t forget storm Darcy is still spinning away to the southeast and as she sinks, winds might eventually get back to a more straight easterly.

The way the flakes are flying by, they’ll all settle on the eastern side of the Long Mynd eventually!

My local forecast from the Met Office is picking up on a chance of some light snow showers this afternoon. Take with a huge pinch or grit I know...but as we’ve discussed many times, they might not be accurate but can sometimes pick up on a theme. Any models showing anything?

It keeps trying to turn back to rain here, so we're right on the margin at the moment.

And there it is...like someone flicked a switch. It’s now snowing. That didn’t take long.

Snowflakes already starting to mix in here.

Raining here now. Let’s see if we can get a little back edge snow too.

Lots of wobbles in the southeast thread about whether much of that incoming system will be able to make landfall. I don't see any problems with the warning area...seems to be on track for them. We've been there ourselves when snow events are approaching, you just assume it's going wrong. Although the January 24th one was obviously going to go far enough north for us when it first hit our radars. I guess it's naturally more difficult to read systems coming in from the east because we're just not as used to it. Going to be interesting to watch what happens from afar in the southeast. I think they're worrying too much. It'll be fine! I daren't go in there to try and reassure them though...it'll be a bit rich from us when we've already had 2 large snow events. Mind you...just putting my selfish Midlands hat on for a moment, didn't I read a push south might benefit us with showers? Maybe it'll end up as a Kent Clipper in reverse!

In Nottingham and Leicester, you can do well from straight easterlies and north easterlies. We really need straight easterlies here because of the Peak District being in our way. We can get away with a little bit of a northerly element, as long as the incoming showers off the North Sea aren't making landfall any further north than the Humber. Obviously, troughs, unforeseen fronts and all that gubbins kees us in the hunt whatever the wind direction. But I would be more confident in the East Midlands right now.

That's even more east to west than February 2009 was...and I thought we couldn't a more perfect easterly stream than that! But yes, you're right, these streams could align anywhere. My eyes on Leicester and points east. That's the flatest and fastest route from the North Sea.

Drizzling here now and the wind is picking up. It's coming...just a case of what it might it might bring after tomorrow.

Still not too optimistic here either, at least for the next 2 days anyway. I think what @I remember Atlantic 252 has been getting at by low pressures being a bit too close might just be right. There is always a shield between the low and the concetive showers that flow nearby. We see it with thunderstorms in the summer and I think we might see it now. The actual forecasts (and I don't just mean apps)...not model outputs... are still not looking too great. Remember though, I'm only thinking about the next day or two. Let's see where we stand tomorrow...if the southeasterners and East Anglians haven't broken the forum!

Oh I see, so it’s about the resolution, so as long as the general theme is there on the high resolution ones, it’s then simply down to radar watching from that point? Quite similar to modelling home grown thunderstorm development in the summer I should imagine. Thank you, that makes a bit more sense now. And the MO app is showing a 50% chance of light snow at random points during the week. So the theme is there too. So not totally useless!

Ok, I’m confused. I read on here yesterday that the models aren’t very good at picking up convective showers. Last month, we had a discussion that the ‘useless’ weather apps do use the models to pick out a general theme. So it makes sense that they won’t show convective showers because the models don’t handle them well. But now model charts are being shared showing convective showers? Do the models have to get within a certain time frame before they start to show convection?

But in the warning details, it's only 1-4cm for over 200m. I think it's the ice that's the main headline from that warning.

Must be my elevation, looks like it’s trying to clear and break up now anyway. Gornal spends a lot of winter wrapped up cozily in it’s own cloud!

The warning here will be more about the ice risk, no accumulation amounts mentioned. But let’s see, as already mentioned, we’ve been in this position before and ended up surprised. Anyone else under this dense fog this morning or is it just up here? Surprised there’s no warnings out for that. Edit: Apologies, it does mention 1 to 4 cm under further details but only for high ground.

I understand, but that’s all us Joe Public have to go on. December 28th 2020 is a great example too of when the forecasts were wrong until right before the snow happened, which is why I’m going to keep an eye on last minute updates.

Hmmm...I’m still underwhelmed I’m afraid when it comes to snow chances. I know some of the models are showing streamers/showers etc , but unless the actual forecasts update in our favour this morning , (I like to use the apps and watch the video forecasts available and take an overall theme from them), then I just don’t see anything notable. Sorry. The word I’m hearing and seeing a lot is ‘dry’. If the forecasts don’t grab my attention this morning, then I’m going to start looking forward to dry dog walks this week. Which would be pleasant in itself to be honest. I’ll come back again Sunday night and see where we stand heading into the week. As for this morning, very thick fog out there. We don’t seem to get warnings for fog so much anymore. We had some right pea soupers this winter, quite dangerous at times and I can’t remember the last time we were issued a fog warning.

It's the secret White Weather Warning...one above Red!

I really hope those near the Amber Warning zone see something significant. After the fails they've had this winter...they really deserve this. I hope the models/forecasts aren't having a real wobble for them. And now for the my selfish Midlands point of view... Nice and relaxed position for us here. We've had some significant snow already this winter, forecasts for the upcoming spell aren't the best they can be so we have everything to gain and not much to lose. There should be no sounds of squeaky backsides in the Midlands this evening.

The 20cm was a combination of the Friday and the Sunday, should have made that clear. It really did stretch towards us like a finger from the southeast that Sunday. Completely unexpected. It was an additional 6 or 7cm of snow here. But yes, the largest amount had already fallen on the Friday.

Who remembers Sunday 20th January 2013? The southeast had snow warnings (we had already had a large fall on the Friday before). The southeast got their snow, but the precipitation managed to stretch out like a finger towards us and we were issued a very last minute warning. 20cm was the total here after that one. After the mudfest of early January, that was such a great winter. The following March was even better. So even though our warnings have been dropped this far west, you just never know. And like others have said, there are always showers/streamers etc. February 2nd 2009 is the best example here of that. I think there's also a real chance we'll get nothing. But if that happens, look on the bright side. It'll be dry and that would actually be quite welcome right now.