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Downburst

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Downburst last won the day on July 1 2011

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    Ireland - East Coast

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  1. Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    Car still frozen here in north Louth, 0.5c outside, front 8 miles south and will be here in 20 mins, but although no breeze at sea level it is clear the air aloft is winning the battle, models very accurate on this occasion for this locale, great fun watching it and holding out hope for a surprise in the morning.
  2. Hurricane Ophelia

    The southern counties of Ireland are so very mild, the trees are very much in full leaf, with 10 weeks of wet weather and growth just about recently finished this has to bring down any week trees, a real pity. Some of the forests in south west Ireland are untouched since humans first came to the island. Hope they don't replace them with exotics like in English estates.
  3. Yes, fair enough. Just BTW, I've been on here for many years and I haven't fully grasped the global drivers, other than to have an understanding as best as possible, but not to be able to knit them together or come close to a prediction for this local. The weather here is so variable, but within the constraints of mild and wet climate that the global drivers don't really impact us to the extent that one could take a week at anytime and say xyz is the cause of this, or a bomb is about to go off in 2 weeks time. Come to think of it I'm taking a break from this site myself. I'll watch the output on a different site and take a few months off. If the TV forecasts something 5 days ahead I'll pop back in. Weather won't change one way or the other.
  4. You can read it yourself, he argued with some over his belief in discounting teleconnections and anomalies over his belief of favouring operational output. He has a valid point but what I don't get with everyone on the Mod thread (everyone who actually puts in all the work) is why not leave commenting on others alone? I hope he comes back as his input in brilliant and has been over the years. He just doesn't do the teleconnections which is fine with me. There was a time this was put on another thread and I think it should go back there as in fact the signals aren't in the MOD output, they are in the ether so to speak. So leave the Mod thread to discuission of Model Output, not thesis on MJO forcing.
  5. It would be the best country in the world if you could roof it I am sorry to see TEITS go, but the pressure these guys put on themselves for models is crazy, they all have valid points and are perhaps trying a little too hard. It's like a horse race or a football match, you can model and predict and do minute analysis but the actual outcome is based on reality, not a forecast. There is no point in such zealous analysis of every run every day, there really isn't. I actually feel sorry as it's a waste of time ultimately, won't change a single thing.
  6. Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    happy new year everyone, hope your wishes come through. For me, a record breaking 3 weeks of frigid cold in January. A dry and warm spring, a hot May and June, breaking records, a thundery July, with record breaking heat - literally killing people, followed by an August so Hot a nationwide emergency and time of work to top off the tans. A normal first week of September, followed by deep snow and early winter. In other words - the MOD threads basic expectations...
  7. Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    All very interesting. Always way too complex a situation to get anyway accurate past 5 days max. So don't go telling anyone as I used to, learned that 6 or 7 years ago. The move of high pressure from NW to Scandinavia in a weeks time - not an easy thing to happen, but it's looking good for some chance of cold and at least a dusting sometime next 10 days.
  8. Having watched thousands of runs also, I would like to agree with TEITS. In this situation you'll have to wait for 72 hour forecast at best, 15 days using NWP in a anti cyclonic setup over the BI, building to the north is madness. Just relax and know heights will be high, according to NWP, and expect something cold.
  9. Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

    Yes, the mean number of days for December in Dublin Airport is 3, 1961 to 2000. However means are somewhat misleading since 2010 and one or two other periods drive that figure up. Checking Met.ie I can see that the mean number of years (Dublin Airport) between 2cm (or more) lying snow is 2 years. So from 1947 to 2011 one can expect 2 CM (or more) of SNOW in December on the ground about every two years. Figure for 10cm or more is every 7 years.
  10. I posted this on another thread, but it is important to remember how much snow we actually get. From the UK Met site. Also this site is good reading on Decembers gone by http://www.trevorharley.com/trevorharley/weather_web_pages/british_weather_in_december.htm
  11. Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

    Picture paints a thousand words. All this MOD madness for snow, in December too. I am mid 40's and can count on one hand the number of times there was settled snow on the ground.
  12. 1040 Center on that High, that's some pressure. Too far out for sure to be taken very seriously, but one can't but notice the strength the model has configured here, and assume some sort of High will be about around that time.
  13. The odd thing about the rainfall anomaly is the deviation from mean is nearly always tiny. I mean if you take a location that gets 80 mm mean for December, to say that a 10% swing of 8 mm would mean it would be particularly wet, or feel wet is too much, also a swing the other way. Notice you never get noticeable swings, and maybe that is because they don't show any noticeable swing. Of course it also masks the frequency of the wet days or even hours, could be a couple of storms making up 30 mm, in real terms. For that reason, along with the temp anomaly's, these anomaly from mean have to be reviewed carefully indeed and are perhaps useful for flood agencies and other service providers.
  14. Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    With at least a week of HP around these shores very much nailed, members will have to be patient. If I read the MJO correctly there is no clear signal forecast indicating specific likely changes, all very odd this year. The big talking point though is the dry weather compared to most years, great Autumn and leading into a potentially colder winter, what's not to like
  15. Rugby League / Union 2013 onwards

    Nerve wrecking game for Ireland, some crazy cover needed with injuries, but managed to hold on in 2nd half. Should be a good 6nations with England so strong and Ireland really building strength in the pack with a couple of exciting backs coming into play. One things for sure, not as much gulf now between northern & Southern Hemispheres, not withstanding these are "friendlies".
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