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Downburst

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Downburst last won the day on July 1 2011

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  1. It would be better if the cycle was always referred to a Solar Sunspot Maxima or Minima, or some way to emphasize the sun spot. I’ve always worried about the general public thinking, oh a weak sun etc. Not saying it doesn’t contribute to weather, but the certainty in some people’s mind even given the facts such as you’ve shown. Better off praying for global impacting volcanoes as they seem to have more real frequent correlation to cooling on a global scale. Still the Thames was frozen......
  2. Just want to clarify something on the NAO index. The index is a measurement of the NAO phase. A stronger Icelandic low and stronger Azores high result in a more positive index, opposite phase for more negative, neutral is normal. So, my point is people often post the NOA is simply following the modeled output, well that’s correct of course as it uses pressure measurements, not like ENSO for instance. But the real question for this winter is this, what is driving strong Icelandic low pressure & Azore highs AND how variable will the phase lengths last? It won’t be eternal for 6 months for sure. Negative since mid September and forecast to be so out to the reliable period on NOAA site. I understand one can expect the signal to contribute 40% influence to these seasonal forecasts, there are other factors of course to consider.
  3. These are anomaly charts. I wouldn’t say there is no strong signal for precipitation, I read that as a strong signal for average, no anomaly in other words.
  4. Surely this is an infrastructural deficit rather than simply a rainfall deficit?
  5. Always very marginal anyway, even if it does snow it will be gone quickly. Just looked at 12z Euro4 for Thursday, who knows why as it will change, but it's coming into high res range now. The temps are forecast too high currently. Not sure it will change much to be honest. So don't expect the hype will be justified for most.
  6. ICON isn't overly snowy for the Thursday system. Post this time it's expected to sink a bit.
  7. I'm very happy with the last few weeks to be honest. Dry is what I am after in Winter and ideally with some sunshine. Sunshine has been down over the last 3 weeks, but rainfall is very low so all in all happy. Example from the Meteireann site shows Dublin Airport, last 3rd December and first week of January bone dry. I've even been able to clean up the garden earlier. Will be happy to see some snow but want it out of the way by mid February.
  8. For the naming I think once a Tropical Storm is named, it was agreed it retained that name once it came into our waters, to avoid confusion, so ex Tropical, or Tropical xyz.
  9. I'm in north Louth and it's being snow showers all morning. Turing slighly more easterly now. More of the coast on target now, looking at Hirlam and other sites I don't no what to predict. For Northern Ireland east coast looking better now lads on Radar, not heavy but better than nothing.
  10. Thanks for that. I knew it was something to do with.a hose, having read it several times I’m certain now.
  11. It's really striking how cold it could be end of next week if current modelling occurs, and it is a if. If the wind picks up enough there won't be enough time to modify the air at all really, look at the 2 m temperatures in the norht sea and even east of Isle of Man. That will have some bite that's for sure.
  12. Yes to all of this, but even more important is the quality of the posts, there are several on the Mod thread that post inane waffle that clutter the thread up to the extent it is almost useless. Quality over quantity.
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