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Downburst

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Downburst last won the day on July 1 2011

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    Ireland - East Coast

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  1. For the naming I think once a Tropical Storm is named, it was agreed it retained that name once it came into our waters, to avoid confusion, so ex Tropical, or Tropical xyz.
  2. I'm in north Louth and it's being snow showers all morning. Turing slighly more easterly now. More of the coast on target now, looking at Hirlam and other sites I don't no what to predict. For Northern Ireland east coast looking better now lads on Radar, not heavy but better than nothing.
  3. Thanks for that. I knew it was something to do with.a hose, having read it several times I’m certain now.
  4. It's really striking how cold it could be end of next week if current modelling occurs, and it is a if. If the wind picks up enough there won't be enough time to modify the air at all really, look at the 2 m temperatures in the norht sea and even east of Isle of Man. That will have some bite that's for sure.
  5. Yes to all of this, but even more important is the quality of the posts, there are several on the Mod thread that post inane waffle that clutter the thread up to the extent it is almost useless. Quality over quantity.
  6. Yes you did ery well thanks Rochey. Hadn't the heart for it today. Must say I'm no fan of the "models are struggling" due to SSW. After 10 years i can tel lyou the only thing struggling in my experience is a SSW that was forcasted actually happeninf and if then actually having some affect in these parts. Mind you an excellent traditional winter with a lot of frozt and a little snow so I am not desperate. I am looking forward to spring now.
  7. Downburst

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    Car still frozen here in north Louth, 0.5c outside, front 8 miles south and will be here in 20 mins, but although no breeze at sea level it is clear the air aloft is winning the battle, models very accurate on this occasion for this locale, great fun watching it and holding out hope for a surprise in the morning.
  8. Downburst

    Hurricane Ophelia

    The southern counties of Ireland are so very mild, the trees are very much in full leaf, with 10 weeks of wet weather and growth just about recently finished this has to bring down any week trees, a real pity. Some of the forests in south west Ireland are untouched since humans first came to the island. Hope they don't replace them with exotics like in English estates.
  9. Yes, fair enough. Just BTW, I've been on here for many years and I haven't fully grasped the global drivers, other than to have an understanding as best as possible, but not to be able to knit them together or come close to a prediction for this local. The weather here is so variable, but within the constraints of mild and wet climate that the global drivers don't really impact us to the extent that one could take a week at anytime and say xyz is the cause of this, or a bomb is about to go off in 2 weeks time. Come to think of it I'm taking a break from this site myself. I'll watch the output on a different site and take a few months off. If the TV forecasts something 5 days ahead I'll pop back in. Weather won't change one way or the other.
  10. You can read it yourself, he argued with some over his belief in discounting teleconnections and anomalies over his belief of favouring operational output. He has a valid point but what I don't get with everyone on the Mod thread (everyone who actually puts in all the work) is why not leave commenting on others alone? I hope he comes back as his input in brilliant and has been over the years. He just doesn't do the teleconnections which is fine with me. There was a time this was put on another thread and I think it should go back there as in fact the signals aren't in the MOD output, they are in the ether so to speak. So leave the Mod thread to discuission of Model Output, not thesis on MJO forcing.
  11. It would be the best country in the world if you could roof it I am sorry to see TEITS go, but the pressure these guys put on themselves for models is crazy, they all have valid points and are perhaps trying a little too hard. It's like a horse race or a football match, you can model and predict and do minute analysis but the actual outcome is based on reality, not a forecast. There is no point in such zealous analysis of every run every day, there really isn't. I actually feel sorry as it's a waste of time ultimately, won't change a single thing.
  12. Downburst

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    happy new year everyone, hope your wishes come through. For me, a record breaking 3 weeks of frigid cold in January. A dry and warm spring, a hot May and June, breaking records, a thundery July, with record breaking heat - literally killing people, followed by an August so Hot a nationwide emergency and time of work to top off the tans. A normal first week of September, followed by deep snow and early winter. In other words - the MOD threads basic expectations...
  13. Downburst

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    All very interesting. Always way too complex a situation to get anyway accurate past 5 days max. So don't go telling anyone as I used to, learned that 6 or 7 years ago. The move of high pressure from NW to Scandinavia in a weeks time - not an easy thing to happen, but it's looking good for some chance of cold and at least a dusting sometime next 10 days.
  14. Having watched thousands of runs also, I would like to agree with TEITS. In this situation you'll have to wait for 72 hour forecast at best, 15 days using NWP in a anti cyclonic setup over the BI, building to the north is madness. Just relax and know heights will be high, according to NWP, and expect something cold.
  15. Downburst

    Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

    Yes, the mean number of days for December in Dublin Airport is 3, 1961 to 2000. However means are somewhat misleading since 2010 and one or two other periods drive that figure up. Checking Met.ie I can see that the mean number of years (Dublin Airport) between 2cm (or more) lying snow is 2 years. So from 1947 to 2011 one can expect 2 CM (or more) of SNOW in December on the ground about every two years. Figure for 10cm or more is every 7 years.
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