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Downburst

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Downburst last won the day on July 1 2011

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    Ireland - East Coast

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  1. Always very marginal anyway, even if it does snow it will be gone quickly. Just looked at 12z Euro4 for Thursday, who knows why as it will change, but it's coming into high res range now. The temps are forecast too high currently. Not sure it will change much to be honest. So don't expect the hype will be justified for most.
  2. ICON isn't overly snowy for the Thursday system. Post this time it's expected to sink a bit.
  3. I'm very happy with the last few weeks to be honest. Dry is what I am after in Winter and ideally with some sunshine. Sunshine has been down over the last 3 weeks, but rainfall is very low so all in all happy. Example from the Meteireann site shows Dublin Airport, last 3rd December and first week of January bone dry. I've even been able to clean up the garden earlier. Will be happy to see some snow but want it out of the way by mid February.
  4. For the naming I think once a Tropical Storm is named, it was agreed it retained that name once it came into our waters, to avoid confusion, so ex Tropical, or Tropical xyz.
  5. I'm in north Louth and it's being snow showers all morning. Turing slighly more easterly now. More of the coast on target now, looking at Hirlam and other sites I don't no what to predict. For Northern Ireland east coast looking better now lads on Radar, not heavy but better than nothing.
  6. Thanks for that. I knew it was something to do with.a hose, having read it several times I’m certain now.
  7. It's really striking how cold it could be end of next week if current modelling occurs, and it is a if. If the wind picks up enough there won't be enough time to modify the air at all really, look at the 2 m temperatures in the norht sea and even east of Isle of Man. That will have some bite that's for sure.
  8. Yes to all of this, but even more important is the quality of the posts, there are several on the Mod thread that post inane waffle that clutter the thread up to the extent it is almost useless. Quality over quantity.
  9. Yes you did ery well thanks Rochey. Hadn't the heart for it today. Must say I'm no fan of the "models are struggling" due to SSW. After 10 years i can tel lyou the only thing struggling in my experience is a SSW that was forcasted actually happeninf and if then actually having some affect in these parts. Mind you an excellent traditional winter with a lot of frozt and a little snow so I am not desperate. I am looking forward to spring now.
  10. Car still frozen here in north Louth, 0.5c outside, front 8 miles south and will be here in 20 mins, but although no breeze at sea level it is clear the air aloft is winning the battle, models very accurate on this occasion for this locale, great fun watching it and holding out hope for a surprise in the morning.
  11. The southern counties of Ireland are so very mild, the trees are very much in full leaf, with 10 weeks of wet weather and growth just about recently finished this has to bring down any week trees, a real pity. Some of the forests in south west Ireland are untouched since humans first came to the island. Hope they don't replace them with exotics like in English estates.
  12. Yes, fair enough. Just BTW, I've been on here for many years and I haven't fully grasped the global drivers, other than to have an understanding as best as possible, but not to be able to knit them together or come close to a prediction for this local. The weather here is so variable, but within the constraints of mild and wet climate that the global drivers don't really impact us to the extent that one could take a week at anytime and say xyz is the cause of this, or a bomb is about to go off in 2 weeks time. Come to think of it I'm taking a break from this site myself. I'll watch the output on a different site and take a few months off. If the TV forecasts something 5 days ahead I'll pop back in. Weather won't change one way or the other.
  13. You can read it yourself, he argued with some over his belief in discounting teleconnections and anomalies over his belief of favouring operational output. He has a valid point but what I don't get with everyone on the Mod thread (everyone who actually puts in all the work) is why not leave commenting on others alone? I hope he comes back as his input in brilliant and has been over the years. He just doesn't do the teleconnections which is fine with me. There was a time this was put on another thread and I think it should go back there as in fact the signals aren't in the MOD output, they are in the ether so to speak. So leave the Mod thread to discuission of Model Output, not thesis on MJO forcing.
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