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Downburst

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Downburst last won the day on July 1 2011

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    Ireland - East Coast

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  1. What’s driving this? I doubt sunspots or lack of. Total waste of time taking anyone’s feelings unless they can provide a decent conjecture. You’ll get a typical uk winter, or within 3% of the norm
  2. Do you have any analogues maps for rising GLAAM in August? It's neat that it predicts weakly positive almost the turn of the month, so if true will be interesting to see the outcome. I can't find analogues maps for Europe based on that.
  3. I’m giving you a like to get you off that number. Don’t want any more jinxes
  4. I was thinking what could be done about it. All I can think of is a series of thermo nuclear bombs somewhere in the atmosphere five hundred miles out and since we are all stay at home anyway, a few iodine tabs and keep the windows shut for a few days, rinse and repeat until the weather waves a white flag? Other than that cloud seeding or run around stone henge chanting. Open to suggestions in lieu of a better plan.
  5. Amazing, I was in France that time, two weeks. That night there were crazy thunderstorms and an inordinate number of cattle were killed locally. They had been suffering a terrible drought. Great summer 95 all over too.
  6. One other thing is settled Septembers following poor ends of August stick in the mind. The reason is people feel sorry for the kids, stuck in all day in a wet August and then return to two weeks of anticyclonic sunshine early September. I remember a couple of occasions in the '80s like that.
  7. Yep, thanks JS. Perhaps @John Holmes can clear this up. Thanks for mentioning the 564, will keep that in mind.
  8. I am no expert, but isn't 576 very high and hence indicating exceptional high pressure? I had though that was a rare event. And why 576? I am aware of the 528 for cold air in winter and possible snow, what is the significance of 576 I wonder?
  9. "That sounds like covering all bases to be proved correct whatever happens. However, being correct is secondary to monitoring a very interesting fine margins as far as I am concerned and the truth is that a favourable or rather less favourable outcome are both highly conceivable at this time. " Tamara. I just want to thank you for the courage to keep doing what you are doing in posting on a thread for us all to learn, a thread that doesn't often allow time or space for such detailed analysis of the complexities that form our global weather system. I do have some difficulty with your expressions sometimes, but I try hard to and I'm increasingly getting to grips with understanding your analysis but a long way to go, or rather perhaps more effort needed my end. I am sure I speak for many when I say bravo and many thanks and have no fear.
  10. You better google it. But please focus on the word “often” when reading. As in for example low or high base states often result in. Etc. Now in this neck of the woods it often rains, or it’s always within climate norms, I’m 100% confident the NW Atlantic is ammune to AAM. That’s why GP doesn’t have a statue
  11. I think this is exactly the thought I’ve had these week. Teleconnections aside, as I have serious concerns about the posts I see saying AAM is expected to be positive, so British Isles are going to be high pressure magnets. I think the slack trough/upper low to the WNW and south that meandered is receding, leaves a vacuum that the jet temporarily aligns to, but the over riding pressure patter suggests a jet stream suppressed in the Atlantic, and with that north of here as it exists only where differentials exist, sea surface temps suggest this to me, with feedback from that reinforcement as continent heats up.. If the ground continues to dry out, over seasonal norms, well late July or early August could toy with breaking daily temps, but I’m thinking night time temps will hit the news mid summer given the sea surface temps, lower heights at the surface, given the lack of pressure gradient with a more northerly jet, a thundery humid second half of summer Is ver much on the cards and we just got a baby version of that this week
  12. Daily Mail now use it. They say it’s back to British pre EU. Fair enough, except Fahrenheit was of course German and the SI units include of course Celsius. I had to laugh at the daily mail say it was as British as Fish and Chips, Herr Fahrenheit. Anyway, fine in itself and ok if you want it, but meteorology outside USA won’t be using the German Scientists scale in the future.
  13. Yep, no wonder the homicide rate is so low in Ireland, heaven for weather here.
  14. Looks like a window for the upper low to fill next weekend. 6z shows this, I know this is not the most reliable source or particular run, but if you look at next Thursday, the Low is out west creating a trough suppressing Azure Ridging, but the end of the weekend a brief retreat and opportunity for Ridging, before the next wave. We shall see. that Scandi High is taking up all the High Pressure Budget for this part of the Hemisphere, the whole north Hemisphere can't be High Pressure, all balances out. Need to move on please.
  15. There is no question that a combination of lock down of various degrees, a very nice extended spring being followed by a cool June is all very disorientating. Things just don't feel right somehow. One would expect to be in T shirts and shorts now, having been in them all May etc. and I know someone will point out, shorts? I wear just me Y fronts and take them off over 15 C, but fact is it's the return to average or below average that irks folks. Should get better this weekend and we can all sweet in bed again.
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