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Zenarcher

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Posts posted by Zenarcher

  1. Plenty of snow on the hills today here in Dunoon the most there's been so far this winter. We've had heavy showers all day and the lightning radar showed a few strikes nearby. At low level it has snowed for the first time this winter however it just melts away instantly.

    • Like 5
  2. It started off nice here in Dunoon with some sunshine about in the early part of the afternoon but it soon turned cloudy and windy. I went out to the town just after 7pm it was raining very heavy some roads were starting to flood the wind wasn't too bad though it started to ease off around then.

    Tomorrow I'm not sure sure what to expect the GFS and Met Office are giving me gusts around 50mph while the BBC weather, ECM and ICON are going for over 80mph gusts.

    • Like 7
  3. Wind gusts will always vary between different weather models some tend to drastically underestimate them and others overestimate them. The wind direction can also make a big difference I know I'm sheltered from winds coming from the South I've had gusts over 60mph forecast from that direction and hardly a breeze outside but if I drive 5 minutes away the wind will suddenly pick straight up. Last year I tested which models predicted the gusts the best for a storm I used a number of locations and Met Office stations to record the results to ensure high accuracy. Aperge came out as the overall best followed by the ECM and yes even BBC Weather managed to do well. Other models that did decent were FMI and the GFS. The Met Office underestimated the wind speed on average across all locations by nearly 10mph off the actual highest recorded gust while Icon tended to overestimated the gusts.

    • Like 2
  4. Just last week the GFS was consistently showing run after run a very deep area of low pressure passing by the West of the UK but the UKMO and ECM weren't interested in that idea and slowly but surely after about 3 runs the GFS backed away from that idea in a similar time-frame to which we're seeing here. So it will be interesting to see whether the 00z run continues this or not.

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