Zenarcher

February 14, 2022

25 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Control has the low less developed giving more snow across the southern half of the UK.

Looks very like the NASA model which just updated to it's 12z run.

February 14, 2022

It will be the highest mean wind speed I've had since December 2011 if the current GFS wind forecast comes true on the day. At this point, there's still time for some changes, but Wednesday night and Thursday morning are forecast to be very stormy in some places.

February 14, 2022

A comparison amongst some of the 12z runs from this afternoon at 1am on Friday.

October 1, 2021

A bit of a shorter update today, so here's the latest from the average weather model charts,

Saturday will start decent with some sunshine, but will quickly become wet and windy as the day progresses. Sunday will be wet and windy throughout Scotland, but drier further south with showers and a bit windy across England and Wales. Monday will be a breezy day with some sunny spells and showers as the low pressure moves away, before more rain moves in over night into Tuesday as another low pressure is on its way over the South of England and Wales, which could bring some strong winds. There's still uncertainty over it at the moment for example the ECM is predicting gusts across the South of England between 40 and 50 mph but the GFS has 20 to 30mph gusts.

From Wednesday to Friday next week, we'll see ex-hurricane Sam make its way up to or near Iceland and Greenland in the Atlantic, similar to what most models predicted yesterday. However, across the UK, most models agree that high pressure will build across the south, resulting in a drier and less windy spell later next week, but the north will remain unsettled.

Most models continue to show the South as more settled and the North as more unsettled next weekend and into the start of the following week.

Latest amination, 2nd Oct to the 11th (Average model outlook, click to view larger, clearer image.)

September 30, 2021

Hey everyone, here's the most recent 10 day outlook using the averaged model charts,

Friday will be a windy day over the UK and the rain will clear away for many, leaving a combination of sunny intervals and showers, although heavy, perhaps thundery rain will continue in western Scotland. Saturday will start out sunny, but it will quickly turn windy, with more heavy rain or showers later in the day. Sunday appears to be another unsettled day; high gusts and extended periods of rain are expected in Scotland, but it should be drier farther south, with sunny spells and showers, but it will be windy there too.

While the wet and windy weather on Saturday and Sunday is getting the majority of the focus right now, a low pressure system will be moving near Scotland on Friday, bringing gusts of 50 to 60 mph to the Western and Northern areas, as seen below by the GFS and ECM.

Onto Saturday and Sunday there's still some uncertainty about where the heaviest rain and strongest winds will be. The models are mostly in agreement that the low pressure will be over Scotland on Saturday night, but how deep it'll go and the exact path it takes is still uncertain. What we do know is that it will be wet and windy for many places. So, what kind of wind gusts are we looking at? According to the ECM, inland gusts will reach 35 to 45 mph for the majority of the country, with exposed areas reaching 50 mph and 60 mph and along coastlines. Here are a few charts from the ECM from 4 pm on Saturday to 7 am on Sunday. However, bear in mind that as we move closer to Saturday, this will most likely change, so keep an eye on the most up-to-date forecast nearer the time.

Most areas will receive at least 20 to 30mm of rain over the next five days, according to the ECM rain accumulation chart, although Western and Northern areas might receive 50 to 100 mm,

Looking ahead to next week, Monday will be less windy to start with along with some sun and showers, but later in the day another low pressure system may develop, bringing more rain and wind, primarily to the south, but it's tough to tell how much rain and also how strong the wind will be at this moment because the models are still in disagreement. Wednesday will remain unsettled, but a ridge of high pressure could form across the South on Thursday, bringing with it the possibility of drier and more calm weather for a while. We also have ex hurricane Sam moving into the Atlantic on Tuesday, which is something to keep a close eye on. Models are still divided on the track, so there's still a chance it could affect our weather by bringing more wind and rain later next week, but for now, most models keep the ex hurricane out in the Atlantic near Greenland or Iceland.

By next Friday and into the weekend, the models are still predicting some high pressure across the South of the UK, keeping drier and settled weather there, but the Northern half of the country will remain unsettled. You can see on the charts below where all the models place the ex hurricane Sam in the Atlantic, some close to the UK and others further out West, demonstrating that where it ends up affects our weather for later next week.

September 28, 2021

Hey everyone, here is the most recent average model forecast,

Wednesday will be relatively settled thanks to a ridge of high pressure in West. Sunny spells will spread across much of the country. But, a few scattered showers are possible, most likely in the northwest. On Thursday, a low pressure system will move to the far north west of Scotland, bringing with it more unsettled weather as rain move eastwards across the UK with with high winds seeing widespread gusts of 30 to 45mph. For Friday, the first day of October, remains unsettled, with another band of rain heading south-eastwards over the UK in the morning. Afterwards, a few showers will develop and it will become drier and sunnier.

This weekend remains unsettled, with further low pressure moving in off the Atlantic, with more wind and rain to all parts of the UK. Some models are still predicting stormy weather for Saturday late afternoon into Sunday morning, however it's still too early to know the exact details, most models show the low pass over England and Wales and by Sunday afternoon we end up with a deep area of low pressure over Scotland. Whatever the weekend brings, the start of next week on Monday appears to be more settled and drier, with a few showers.

Using the ECM model which seems to have some support this evening it's showing plenty of rain on the way between Saturday 4pm to Sunday 4am,

The ECM goes for gusts around 50 to 65mph across the South and East of England and widespread gusts of 40 to 55mph across Scotland and Northern England.

Looking further ahead into next week, between Tuesday to Friday, it appears that the trend of things to possibly settle down is still there, especially for those in the southern regions of the country, while those in the north may stay unsettled. But there's also Hurricane Sam to keep an eye on. The ECM showed it moving into the Atlantic and ending up near Iceland, so it wouldn't really affect the UK's weather, while the GEM control run this afternoon put it to the far west of the UK which would keep things more unsettled. The path of the hurricane is still unclear but we should have a better idea in a few days.

September 27, 2021

29 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

12z GFS operational at 144h through to 150h

Oof!

Yep, looking very stormy, according to the GFS, inland gusts across much of England and Wales would be around 60 mph if that happened,

With gusts of up to 70 mph in parts of East Anglia,

On Sunday, the ICON model also predicts a deep low,

With gusts of up to 75 mph for coastal areas and up to 55 mph further inland,

Although it is still possible that it will disappear or be downgraded closer to the time, it is something to keep a watch out for

September 26, 2021

Good evening, everyone! It's time for today's average model outlook,

Temperatures will return to average levels next week, making it cooler and more unsettled. Heavy rain will persist in eastern Scotland and England on Monday before clearing towards the North Sea. Sunny spells and brief showers, especially in the west, make for a significantly cooler day for all. At first, Tuesday will bring a combination of sunshine and showers, however later in the day, an area of low pressure will bring stronger winds and heavy and continuous rainfall to all regions. On Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure will develop, resulting in a calmer, drier day with sunshine.

The weather will remain unsettled from Thursday through to the weekend, with another low pressure system on the way from the Atlantic, bringing wind and rain with it, so expect more of the same for the first few days of October.

From Monday, October 4th, to Wednesday, October 6th, most models show the weather remaining unsettled, as has been the trend for the past week, but when I last updated on Friday, the long term outlook did hint at some more settled weather as we moved further into October, and this appears again this evening, especially for the Southern parts, but it could just be a brief break from the wind and rain before the next round of low pressure systems arrive.

Latest amination, 27th Sept to 6th Oct (Average model outlook, click to view larger, clearer image.)

These pictures are from windy.com and show the maximum gusts expected over the next 10 days (from the ECM model) , with most areas seeing 30 to 40 mph and more exposed places and coastal areas getting 50 to 60 mph.

Plenty of rain too, with most areas receiving 50 to 70mm during the next 10 days, but some areas, particularly in the West, might receive up to and beyond 120mm.

September 24, 2021

Afternoon all, a little of an early update from me today than usual, let's take a look at the next 10 days using the average model outlook,

Low pressure will eventually begin to take control of our weather over the weekend. On Saturday, clouds will break up more as the day goes on, allowing for sunny spells to occur in certain areas. Patchy cloud and sunny intervals are expected on Sunday, with showers. Highs in the mid-teens and low-twenties are expected, which is unseasonably warm for this time of year. A band of rain will move eastwards through the UK on Sunday evening and Monday morning, leaving sunny spells and heavy showers once it passes. On Tuesday, there will be a combination of sunshine and heavy showers.

Low pressure will persist over the UK from Wednesday to Friday, bringing cooler temperatures nearer to average for this time of year. The weather will be generally unsettled, with some sunshine and showers that might be heavy at times, and some areas will be a bit windy.

Looking ahead to next weekend as we enter October, it appears that low pressure will weaken further or move away from the UK, making the first few days of October a bit more settled.

Latest amination, 25th Sept to 4th Oct (Average model outlook, click to view larger, clearer image.)

Despite the fact that there isn't much to talk about right now, as evident by the lack of posts in recent days, I noticed yesterday that the GFS predicted an ex hurricane in the Atlantic near the UK on October 7th,

It reappeared again this morning on the 06z GFS run, but this time much further west.

So I looked at the GFS ensembles and only about three of them out of thirty different runs showed it reaching the UK. Although it's still two weeks away and a lot will change between now and then and may even disappear completely in a day or two, I thought it was worth mentioning because it could be something to keep an eye on as we head into October.

September 23, 2021

Today, we'll return to the Northern Hemisphere maps for our average model outlook for the next 10 days,

On Friday, low pressure will be to the north and high pressure is to the south, resulting in plenty of cloudy skies with rain outbreaks in the northern and western parts, but drier weather with a few sunny spells elsewhere. This weekend will be mostly cloudy, but there will be some sunshine for some areas. The best chance of seeing sunshine will be on Sunday, although there will be scattered showers all through the weekend. A band of rain will head in from the west on Monday, but after it passes, it will be followed by sunny spells and showers. Between Friday and Sunday, temperatures will remain warm, but Monday will be cooler.

Temperatures will remain cooler through the middle of next week, from Tuesday to Thursday. At this moment, it's unclear how unsettled next week will be, but it appears that there will be showers or rain in most parts of the country, and on Thursday, both the GFS and the ECM show low pressure crossing over Scotland, bringing widespread rain and wind to all parts of the UK. But it's still too far away, and it serves as an indication of how unsettled next week may be, depending on where these low pressure systems form and move. If that doesn't happen, expect a week of generally changeable weather on the unsettled side.

As we move into October next Friday and into the weekend, the trend is for things to continue unsettled, with more wind and rain on the way and temperatures remaining on the cooler side.

Latest amination, 24th Sept to 3rd Oct (Average model outlook, click to view larger, clearer image.)

September 22, 2021

12 hours ago, johnholmes said:

A good idea to show the northern hemisphere charts, maybe if you have time, you might do one day northern then the next day the Atlantic set.

Thank you for this additional output of charts

Hi John, great suggestion to switch between the two maps, so tonight we'll go back to the Atlantic maps.

For those in England and Wales, Thursday and Friday looks settled, dry, and mostly sunny, but farther north into Scotland, it will be cloudier, with wind and rain. This weekend will be warmer, especially for those in the north where it has been a little cooler recently; it will be partly cloudy with some sunshine and light showers mostly in the West, with wetter weather expected on Sunday as the Atlantic low approaches.

Low pressure will remain in charge into the start of next week on Monday to Wednesday, bringing unsettled weather including widespread rain or showers at times, and possibly a bit windy. The models are still uncertain how unsettled it will be at this moment, but the majority view this evening is that the low pressure won't be too intense, so nothing too unsettled, but temperatures will be a bit cooler.

The extended outlook from next Thursday to Saturday keeps low pressure in charge, as has been the case recently, so things are likely to continue unsettled with more rain or showers on the way, maybe windy at times, and temperatures remaining on the colder side as we head into October.

Latest amination, 23rd Sept to 2nd Oct (Average model outlook, click to view larger, clearer image.)

September 21, 2021

This evening, we're doing something a little different by using Northern Hemisphere maps instead. We get a look of October's start. (All of the models and ensembles are averaged into one image for these images.)

With high pressure in the south, the next few days will be generally dry, warm, and sunny, while low pressure in the north will bring wind, rain, and cooler temperatures for a time.

Over the weekend and into Monday the Southerly winds will bring in the warmer air so any cold weather won't last long, the models are still uncertain how dry the weekend will be at this stage but do mostly agree some showers or even rain will affect some parts. It all depends on where the area of low pressure is near Iceland, and most models differ from the ECM tonight, placing it further east.

As the trend has been showing for a few days now, the extended outlook through next week up to the 1st of October remains unsettled. Low pressure remains in control, however most models don't say it will be anything strong, so some wet and possibly windy weather at times. Nevertheless, a few models do show some deep low pressure form, which could bring some very strong winds, but at this stage it's just a possibility.

Latest amination, 22nd Sept to 1st Oct (Average model outlook, click to view larger, clearer image.)

September 20, 2021

Evening everyone, here's the latest average outlook from the weather models from this evening,

Tuesday to Thursday

Tuesday will see high pressure in control, making for a fairly pleasant day with warm temperatures for many. Because of a deep area of low pressure passing Iceland, it will be cloudier and windier farther north, with gusts of 40 to 55 mph predicted for exposed parts of Scotland. By Wednesday, the deep low pressure system will start to affect our weather, with a band of rain and gale force winds moving through Scotland and Northern Ireland, but it will be another lovely day in England and Wales, with sunshine and warm temperatures. Thursday is unsettled in the north with wind and rain, but warmer, drier, and sunnier in the south.

Friday and the Weekend

On Friday and Saturday, the ridge of high pressure will remain in the south, keeping things dry and settled, while rain will fall in the north, but temperatures will recover and warm up there. Low pressure remains in the Atlantic and is slowly moving towards the UK. The models were keen on having low pressure to the far North of Scotland at the end of the week, but it's been pushed further West today with some high pressure building to the South East.

Next week Monday to Thursday

The extended outlook shows high pressure attempting to build to our east, while low pressure in the Atlantic travels over or near to the west of the UK, keeping things unsettled, as has been the trend on the extended outlook for the past few days. However, this low pressure still appears to be weak, so expect changeable weather.

Latest amination, 21st Sept to 30th (average model outlook)

September 19, 2021

Good evening, everyone. Here's a look at how the models are doing this evening, along with the average model outlook.

The start of the week, Monday and Tuesday, is settled as high pressure flows over the UK, bringing sunshine and keeping temperatures warm. A deep area of low pressure passes to the south of Iceland on Tuesday, making it windy across the Northern half of the UK, particularly in exposed areas of Scotland, where gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. By Wednesday, the high pressure system will have moved away, allowing a deep area of low pressure near Iceland to impact our weather, making it wet and windy in the north, but warm and sunny in the south.

The forecasts continue to show low pressure in control for Thursday through to Saturday, keeping things unsettled with some showers and windy weather on the way. The north will be more unsettled, while the south will be more settled. It will also become a little cooler in all areas.

The extended forecast for the following week shows low pressure to the north west of Scotland moving across the northern part of the country on Sunday and Monday, with temperatures generally feeling much colder and more rain and wind on the way. Low pressure eventually weakens but is still in charge through Tuesday and Wednesday, so the changeable weather will continue but will be less unsettled and remaining on the colder side.

This evening's amination, 20th Sept to 29th (average model outlook)

September 18, 2021

On Sunday, the best weather will be over Western parts of the country, with some sunshine, although there will still be heavy showers. The Eastern parts of England and Scotland will see a lot of rain. With a ridge of high pressure moving in, Monday and Tuesday will be generally dry with some sunshine, making for a good start to next week. On Tuesday, as low pressure moves near Iceland, exposed parts of Western and Northern Scotland will experience wind gusts of up to 50 mph or more.

Wednesday will be a little more unsettled, with rain moving over the country, but the Southern parts of the country will likely stay dry. The models have eased off from really unsettled weather over the past day and pushed the worst to the far North, so most agree with it will be getting colder on Thursday and Friday, with some rain or showers about and a bit windy in Northern regions. The ECM shows a deep area of low pressure on Thursday, bringing very strong winds to the UK, but there isn't much support for it at the moment.

Next weekend shows increasing support of low pressure developing to Iceland's South West, which might bring more rainy and windy weather to the UK, particularly in the North. Any low pressure around might lessen off through the start of the following week. However, the weather looks to remain on the unsettled side, with rain or showers expected.

This evening's amination, 19th Sept to 28th (average model outlook)

September 18, 2021

Heavy rain will move in from the West tonight, sweeping over the country to the East, and the best weather will be in the West during Sunday, with some sunshine but heavy showers. Rain will fall heavily in the Eastern parts of England and Scotland. On Monday, a ridge of high pressure will move in from the South West, making it drier, but rain or showers may still fall in some parts of the East. Tuesday will be generally dry, with rain expected overnight, while Northern and Western Scotland will see windy conditions as low pressure passes to the south of Iceland. In some locations, gusts of up to 50 mph or more can be expected.

A band of rain is expected to move over the country on Wednesday, but England, particularly the Southern parts, should remain relatively dry. Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, the models continue to show low pressure to our far North and high pressure to our West. The ECM, for example, sends a deep area of low pressure across the UK, bringing with it very strong winds and heavy rain, whilst the GFS and the UKMO show something less extreme, with low pressure about, making it unsettled but not as severe as the ECM.

The models mainly agree that things will stay unsettled through next weekend and the start of the following week, with low pressure persisting to our North that might move down and over the UK, bringing rainy and windy weather while temperatures are expected to drop. However, compared to those further North, the far South West and Southern parts of the country may occasionally avoid some of the unsettled weather.

Amination 19th Sept to 28th (average model outlook)

September 17, 2021

I've been experimenting with an idea I've had for a while and finally figured out how to do it. One thing that's crucial in weather forecasting is trends and strong model agreement, but with so many models nowadays, obtaining a proper overview of everything can be a bit time consuming sometimes.

The aim is to combine all of the models into one image, giving you a quick and easy way to see what the best overall agreement is. I've been testing this technique over the summer and the last few days to make sure it works, and it seems to do a nice job at predicting future trends. Because it's a quieter time of year, I figured it'd be a good time to post it here. It makes use of most of the models available on the Meteociel website, including the GFS and ECM ensemble means, as well as the GFS control run. So we have 14 models in one image from 24 to 96 hours, 13 models for 120 and 144 hours, 12 models for 168 hours, and 9 models between 192 to 240 hours (up to 10 days outlook). I understand that it may not be everyone's cup of tea, but I find it beneficial in determining where the best overall agreement is, so others may find it useful as well.

Forecast over the next 24 to 72 hours (next 3 days) You'll notice the charts aren't perfectly clear because it's averaging 14 photos into one; the white lines are sharper on the first chart at 24 hours, but more spread out at 72 hours, as you go further ahead as the models gradually vary.

This weekend's forecast, there will be some rain on Saturday, but it will be a dry day in many locations. On Sunday, the outbreaks of heavy rain and thunder on the Eastern side of the country become a little more frequent. There may be some rain lingering in the South East of England by Monday, but high pressure will be rising across the country, bringing for the most parts a fine spell of weather.

Tuesday should be settled and dry for the most part, although there is a potential of more unsettled weather in the far north of Scotland. Low pressure will sweep in from the northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing rainy and windy weather with it. The charts are becoming more muddled as they begin to differ even more, but you can still tell where high and low pressure is situated.

The longer outlook into the end of next week indicates the unsettled pattern continuing, with low pressure persisting, especially over the north, bringing more rain and wind, as well as cooler temperatures to the country.

Last but not least, an aminated GIF, and have a wonderful weekend everyone.

July 16, 2021

It was a beautiful sunny day on Thursday, with a clear blue sky and warm temperatures, but there was a breeze so it didn't feel too hot. It was about as near to perfect summer weather as you can get. It was overcast today, but the sun tried to come out later on. Despite the lack of sun, it was fairly warm today; I measured 22.9°C on my weather station, making it the warmest day I've had this year.

July 14, 2021

Today's weather was disappointing; it was supposed to be sunny, but it stayed cloudy the entire day; however, it was still warm, reaching 21.5°C. The weather for Thursday appears to be sunny and hot, so let's hope it's correct this time. Unfortunately, the weather forecast for the weekend has changed, and it is now more overcast and cooler than it was saying on Monday and Tuesday. The good news is that high pressure is expected to persist for the majority of next week, meaning that we will remain dry and settled.

July 13, 2021

It was a nice sunny day, although slightly cooler than Monday; my weather station registered 21.4°C today. Hot and sunny weather is still forecast for this weekend and the beginning of next week.

July 12, 2021

The Met Office had predicted thunderstorms for this afternoon for my area over the past few days, but it didn't come to anything. We did have a few heavy showers pass through between the sunshine, and the only thunder picked up on the radar came from around Oban. Today was the warmest day I've had so far, with a maximum temperature of 22.7°C recorded from my weather station.

Tuesday looks warm and sunnier and this weekend the Met Office at the moment are going for some of the warmest temperatures we've seen this summer so far.

February 14, 2021

Some severe weather coming from parts of the Western Isles this afternoon.

This was the GFS gusts forecast for 3pm today

A weather station is South Uist reported 95mph shortly before 2pm and in Barra 88mph. The Met Office station in that area from South Uist has so far reached 82mph. There are a few reports of some damage coming in at the moment on Facebook and one of the beaches has eroded away badly in the past 24 hours,

How it should look for comparison