Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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The power here went off at 10.30pm and just came back on after midnight. It's still windy my local station showing gusts around 66 to 71mph in the past hour.
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Pressure here got down to 964.8mb at 9.10pm and it's now rising to 965.5mb. We've had gusts around 40 to 50mph all evening, but according to the forecast, it will get worse over the next few hours.
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Some of the highest wind gusts so far up to 8pm across the Western Isles of Scotland where the strongest gusts have still yet to arrive,
Lochmaddy Ferry Terminal, North Uist, 71mph
Gravir, Isle of Lewis, 71mph
Tobson, Isle of Lewis, 70mph
Breasclete, Isle of Lewis, 67mph
Enaclete, Isle of Lewis, 67mph
South Uist, Met Office Site, 64mph
Drimsdale, South Uist, 61mph-
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Gusting mostly around 30mph here with 40mph being the highest so far, I'm not expecting the worst until about 10pm to reach my area. So far it's just rained a lot and caused a little bit of flooding.
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Latest look on the 12z Ensembles from the ECM, GFS, GEM & MOGREPS-Met Office up to the 26th of December.
Pressure
The ECM, GFS, and GEM all predict that pressure will increase later this week, but MOGREPS isn't as keen on rising the pressure as much, the same thing happened on the 00z run this morning. The biggest shift today is the middle of next week, where the ECM and GEM are now keen on increasing pressure.
Todays 12z graph
Yesterdays 12z graph
Temperature
This week will continue to be cold; the weekend is expected to see a rise in temperatures; after that, temperatures look like they will fall again. On the 12z runs, the average temperature across all ensembles between the 24th and 26th was marginally colder when compared to the 00z runs from this morning.
Todays 12z graph
Yesterdays 12z graph
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Latest look on the 00z Ensembles from the ECM, GFS, GEM & MOGREPS-Met Office.
With only MOGREPS not as willing to build pressure as high compared to the rest, high pressure is still expected later this week.
(Red line shows average between all ensembles)
Most of the week will be cold, although there are some indications that in about 6 days, temperatures may start to rise.
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I made these graphs showing the daily midday temps and air pressure for London between 12th and 25th of December, based on the ECM, GFS, GEM Ensembles and MOGREPS-Met Office Ensembles (ICON ensembles too but only for temps). The big red line shows the overall average between them all.
Pressure expected to rise towards next weekend.
Temps staying cold for the next week at least.
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The temp here reached 25.1°C on Sunday, 25.7°C yesterday matching the highest I've recorded on my weather station that I've had for 3 years and today so far 25.8°C. The Met Office local forecast is going for 26°C over the next 2 hours. I know the Met Office have a weather station here but will need to wait a while before I know if it's our warmest day ever.
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The snow at low levels here melted through the day but remained on the hills. Current temperature at 8.00pm is 2.6c. We've had heavy showers all day with hail, sleet and snow.
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Some snow here in Dunoon this morning. Last night the temperature got down to 0.4c, currently 2.4c at 12pm.
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Last 24 hours from the lightning radar,
Also lightning destroyed a home on the Isle of Lewis last night but thankfully everyone made it out alive and with no injuries. Full story here,
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The wind picked up around 2am, and my local weather station a few miles away reported a gust of 63mph. There were heavy showers and thunder in the area, but according to the radar, I just missed it by a few miles. Just after 4am, I had a gust of 70mph. It's still a little windy today, but it's dry and sunny.
Lightning Radar from the past 24 hours from lightningmaps.org
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The thunder in my area died down a few hours ago, and the heavy showers eventually turned into heavy rain for a while. It's still windy, but nothing too bad at the moment.
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Some thunder around my area at the moment I heard some about 10 minutes ago. Heavy shower starting just now some sleet and hail in the mix.
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Some thunder about in these heavy showers, as the radar shows.
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It's gusting to just under 50 mph here, but it doesn't appear to be that bad right now, however the wind is definitely picking up. I'm surprised the warning hasn't extended to the southern half of the Western Isles, given that Tiree has. A gust of 68 mph was reported in South Uist, and 74 mph was recently recorded in South on Barra and the worst has still yet to come for them.
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Last night was windy, with gusts of just under 50 mph. My local Met Office forecast indicates it will only be around 5 mph windier tonight, but I don't believe it. Looking at the GFS and ECM, it appears like I'll see gusts around 65mph. But the direction for me tonight isn't good the wind has a funnel affect coming down the hills from the North West which can bring stronger gusts than forecast. I haven't seen the GFS predict such high wind speeds for me since moving here, so I'm a little worried, even though I'm not in the warning zone.
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The heavy showers have remained here this evening, with a few more gusts just under 50 mph, and according to the latest forecast from the 18z GFS, gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected to last through tonight, more noticeable during the heavy showers.
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Over the last two hours, the wind has picked up again, with a gust of 58 mph recorded shortly after 5pm. Showers are becoming more frequent at the moment, with some sleet mixed in with the rain.
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A very heavy shower with strong gusts passed through just before 4pm. I don't have a weather station, but the nearest one to me reported 53mph. After the shower passed, the wind died away to the point that you wouldn't believe a storm was passing through currently.
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There are some heavy showers moving through here right now, but there is still some nice sunshine in between. The wind has picked up, and many weather stations across Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Northern England are reporting gusts of 50 to 68 mph. The storm will pass directly over Scotland during the next few hours, meaning the highest winds have yet to arrive in some areas.
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The Met Office wind gusts tomorrow,
It shows mainly shows gusts of 50 to 60 mph, but 60 to 70 mph in parts of Southern Scotland and Northern England. The strongest gusts are expected in the south west of Scotland (Islay, Jura, Campbeltown, and Arran). It should also be highlighted that during rush hour on Wednesday morning over the Scottish central belt, gusts of 50 to 60 mph may be experienced in some places.
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The GFS has reduced wind speeds overnight, falling in line with other models such as the ECM, Met Office, and ICON, although it still predicts inland gusts of 50 to 60 mph for Central Scotland and Northern England. Indeed, the GFS forecast has downgraded this morning, but it'll still be very windy on Wednesday, and the Met Office still has the amber warning in place.
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I just looked at the ECM gusts for this storm, and it looks like it'll be about 70 to 80 mph around the South West coasts in Scotland. The ECM is predicting for 50 to 60 mph for inland areas, with some areas reaching 65 mph. The GFS is similar, but it predicts stronger inland gusts, with gusts exceeding 75 mph in some areas.
Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
The highest gusts from the Western Isles of Scotland,
Stornoway Port, 85mph at 1.00am
Stornoway, Met Office Site, 78mph at 2.00am
Lacklee, Isle of Harris, 78mph at 12.19am
Stornoway Airport, 76mph at 1.20am
South Uist, Met Office Site, 75mph at 1.00am
Castlebay Ferry Terminal, Isle of Barra, 74mph at 12.00am
Lochmaddy Ferry Terminal, North Uist, 73mph at 11.55pm
Breasclete, Isle of Lewis, 73mph at 6.19pm
Marybank, Stornoway, 73mph at 2.04am
Gravir, Isle of Lewis, 71mph at 6.34pm
Tobson, Isle of Lewis, 70mph at 6.19pm & 6.24pm
Benbecula Airport, 69mph at 12.20am
Leverburgh, Isle of Harris, 68mph at 12.39am & 12.44am
North Galson, Isle of Lewis, 68mph at 1.09am
Eorodale, Isle of Lewis, 68mph at 1.54am
Laxay, Isle of Lewis, 66mph at 12.44am
Isle of Berneray, 65mph at 11.59pm, 12.34am & 12.39am
Lower Bayble, Stornoway, 65mph at 1.24am
Drimsdale, South Uist, 61mph at 5.44pm
Garrabost, Stornoway, 60mph at 1.09am