Dangerous55019

Morning @CreweCold Believe me, I'm counting off the days until the earliest sunrise, and the solstice itself, so I can finally celebrate the days starting to get shorter and the nights longer. For me, as a summer SAD sufferer, this year has been a particularly long and hard slog.

Good morning everyone. Just thought I'd add my two peneth worth to this discussion with a quick look at the CFS v2 anomaly charts for the next four weeks. Week 1- 30th May to the 5th June: High pressure is centered out in the Atlantic and covering Iceland and of course us here in the UK. The location of the high is allowing winds from an easterly or a north easterly direction to affect us here in the UK. Cloud and murk will also drift in off the North sea at times, but basically its rinse and repeat of what we've had for the past week or so. Week 2 - 6th to the 12th June: The high pressure out in the Atlantic appears to be retrogressing towards Greenland, but still holding sway over us here in the UK. At a guess I'd say that the winds will be of a more of a north easterly direction... But still no real rainfall. Week 3 - 13th to the 19th of June: Bit of change? The large area of high pressure out in the Atlantic appears to be weaker, and stretching out from North Western Canada and out into the north Atlantic... It might still hold a bit of sway over Ireland and north west Scotland... Also we've got low pressure over Spain and France, could that give us a chance of thundery breakdown? Only time will tell. Week 4 - 20th to the 26th June: Back to square one! High pressure centered between Iceland and Scotland, with its influence covering pretty much all of the UK. So yet more fine and settled weather with an east or north easterly airflow. So, there you have it folks! If you're looking for some much needed rainfall, then according to the CFS v2, there isn't that much chance on the immediate horizon. If on the other hand you want settled weather... Then this isn't really what you wanted to see. If on the other hand you're enjoying this calm and settled spell of weather... Then there appears to be lots more to come. As ever this is the CFS, and it could all change very quickly. Hopefully this will help out some of the more experience members of this forum with trying to work out what's happening next.

Afternoon @markyo. The lowering of the mood for me started in mid April... And I know its gonna fester until about early/mid July time. *sigh* I know the nights are still short and light, but its a psychological thing, as at this point the daylight is diminishing, and for me, the fact that we're on the run out of summer, rather than on the run into it, makes it much more bearable. I know many of the good folk on here are absolutely loving this time of year, and long my they enjoy it... But for me I just feel like I want to crawl in a cave, and hibernate... But sadly I can't as I've got bills to pay. I see that we've currently got quite a bit of high pressure forecast for the next couple of weeks... My heart just sinks at the thought of all of that extra glary overhead sunshine. It just feels like I've got no escape from the light at this time of year. Ahhh well... We must look on the bright side... Only another five weeks to go until the nights start getting longer again. In fact I've got the time of the summer solsctice (15:57) marked off on the calendar, so I can celebrate the days starting to get shorter again. I swear I should have been born as a bat or a mole... Or some other darkness loving creature. Lol

Farewell darkness my old friend… Enjoy your summer break, and I’m looking forward to your return in late July. Sorry… Morning everyone Well during the wee small hours, at 01:20 my part of the world here in North East Wales entered the world of the lingering twilight for another year. The darkness returns for me on the 30th of July. I really hope my reverse SAD holds out… But for me, it really feels like the final tightening of the vice is under way. The final long, hard slog up to the summer solstice has commenced. *sigh*

Just had a nice little thunderstorm here. I shall review my video footage to see if I’ve caught any lightning

Afternoon everyone. I can confirm that this cell to my south has electrified. Quite a good rumble of thunder to be honest,

Afternoon everyone And finally, I hear the sound of distant thunder! Fingers crossed that this is the start of the storm season proper, and that it’s a good one for all of us!

Shortly after my alarm went off at 03:15 this morning, I looked out of the window… And although the sky certainly wasn’t light, it certainly wasn’t dark either. So I’ve just had a look at the Time and Date website, and for my location, true darkness ended at 02:37! Plus for the record; the world of the lingering twilight has now reached the border town of Berwick-upon-Tweed!

On the day that the world of the lingering twilight reached the mainland U.K. for another year, this is currently how light the sky is at 21:40 here in North East Wales.

Evening everyone. I've just been having a nosey at the Time and Date website, and at 01:23 this morning, the most northerly point of the UK, Out Stack (a midges worth north of Muckle Flugga in the outer Shetland Isles) entered the world of the lingering twilight! Other northerly places like Saxa Vord have now also entered the world of the lingering twilight for another year. (Its interesting to note that this far north in June, around the time of the solstice, it doesn't get any darker that civil twilight! ... I'd go as far as to class that as an interruption in daylight! The flip side of the coin is that this most northern part of the UK is in he pre-15:00 sunset club in December, with the sun setting at 14:48!!! ) It's not until the 26th of this month that the lingering twilight reaches the mainland UK, when at 01:12 - John o' Groats says farewell to true darkness. It will not be until the 25th of August that the whole of the UK will once again experience true and total darkness. The final run into summer 2023 is underway.

Being as I want/need to get an early night, (yes folks I’m at that age where 21:00 is the new midnight! ) I’m currently in the process of twizzling all of the clocks on one hour, (Spring forward, fall back) as we prepare to say farewell to GMT, and hello to BST for another 217 days. Ahhh well… Another hour closer to autumn.

There looks to be another line of convection kicking off around the Aberdyfi area, and stretching in land!

Morning @Rush2112… (and everyone else) … Just to back up what you’ve posted… After a wild and windy night last night, I’ve just heard on the wireless about the risk of thunderstorms today, and decided to have a look. It looks like Holyhead has had a storm today, and also something off the coast of Blackpool as well! Let’s hope that 2023 is a much more active one than last year was for us all.

For me the equilux is today. So as of tomorrow we will officially have more daylight than darkness… Until September that is. The spring Equinox is on this coming Monday at 21:25! But next Sunday in the wee small hours, the clocks go forward one hour! Then it’ll be full steam ahead towards the second cross quarter day - Beltane… And then the summer solstice in June! Time marches on and all that.

Hello everyone. Another week has passed, so time for me to have a look at the CFSv2 four weekly anomalies to see what they're showing today... Week 1 - 3rd to the 9th March: High pressure over Greenland and low pressure over Scandinavia, with both pressure systems heading up towards the pole... This would leave us in a northerly air flow... I'm kinda guessing snow showers for the majority, but the eastern parts of the UK, being closest to the low pressure would probably have the best chance of seeing more heavy falls of snow. Week 2 - 10th to the 16th March: The high pressure is moving more towards northern Canada, and the low pressure over Scandinavia is heading more towards Britain! By the looks of the chart, I'm guessing that we would still be in a northerly air flow, but with a greater risk of snow showers. Week 3 - 17th to the 23rd March: ALL CHANGE! ... The low pressure now appears to be centered just of the south eastern tip of Iceland, plus with high pressure over mainland Europe, this could warm things up a bit by putting us in line for some mild south westerly air... Probably be 'damp'(ish) as well. Week 4 - 24th to the 30th March: High pressure out in the Atlantic, and also over mainland Europe, and stretching up towards Scandinavia... Although nothing is really showing directly over us here the the UK, I'm gonna hazard a guess that this could put us in line for a southerly air flow... So mild if nothing else. So there you go folks! Make of that what you will! As always this is the CFSv2, and they are low res charts... So always treat them with caution.

Hello everyone. A few days have passed since I last did this, so lets have a look at what the CFS V2 is forecasting for the next four weeks... Week 1 - 24th February to the 2nd March: High pressure is pretty much centered between Iceland and us here the UK. This would give us a continuation of what we've been having... Very calm and settled days with chilly nights that bring the risk of frost and fog... Barring the odd weather front that could slither past... Not a lot else to say really. Week 2 - 3rd March to the 9th March: What can I say? Apart from the high pressure slowly moving and expanding out into the Atlantic... Pretty much rinse and repeat of week 1! Although we might just have slightly more of a north easterly air flow. Week 3 - 10th to the 16th of March: Bit of a change!! That high pressure appears to be more centered of the north eastern tip of Canada and Greenland, with low pressure now over Scandinavia... This could leave us in a northerly air flow, sunshine and showers... Snow showers? Only time will tell on that... But this could be a result of the recent SSW. ... Watch this space. Week 4 - 17th to the 23rd March: Back to where we started really! High pressure centered between Iceland and over us in the UK, but also stretching out over France, into the Mediterranean, and out towards Russia. yet more calm and settled weather... But as we head towards mid March, although the overnight frost and fog risk will continue it will be reduced, but it should be pleasant enough by day. So there you go... Make of that what you will! Still the lack of precipitation is starting to ring alarm bells with me as we head towards the summer, but the weather will do whatever the weather will do. As always, this is a low resolution model, and the further out we go, the more it becomes unreliable... But there is a trend showing. Have a good weekend folks, and hopefully I'll get chance to have another look next week.

Hello everyone. I thought I'd just add my two peneth worth for this discussion with the latest CFS V2 500hPa anomaly charts... Week 1 - 21st to the 27th February: High pressure pretty much centered between Iceland and the nether regions of Scotland, but with its influence pretty much covering all of the UK, says that yet again we're looking at another dry week! But with the location of the high, it could well leave us in an light easterly air flow. My guess is that its gonna be cooler that its been over the past couple of days, but with a risk of frost and fog over night... Although I very much doubt we'll see the kind of temps that we saw in December. Week 2 - 28th February to the 6th March: Not a lot has changed really... The only major difference being is that the high pressure to our north is expanding! So pretty much what I said for week one still stands. Week 3 - 7th to the 13th March: Slight change... The high pressure that was over us now appears to be forecast to head towards Greenland... The could put us in line for a more northerly airflow, but I'm still not seeing any major signs of precipitation. Still with the risk of frost and fog by night. Week 4 - 14th to the 20th March: Again... Not a lot has altered! Still got the risk of frost and fog by night, and what could well be a northerly airflow. So there you go... Make of that what you will! If the CFS V2 is right, (and that's a BIG 'IF') we're certainly look at a very dry four weeks coming up, which are possibly a bit on the chilly side by night; but by the time we get into March, the sun is again that bit higher in the sky, so my guess is that it could feel quite pleasant in the sun by day, but chilly by night. For me the main thing that sticking out here is the potential lack of rainfall, if this doesn't change soon then we could be in trouble come summer! But I'm venturing off topic with that. Anyway... Hopefully these charts will help some of the more experienced members on here.

@Maz Grey, and cloudy, rainy summer days, or those with thunderstorms are the best for me, as its the almost overhead summer sun that cripples me... Its like the Eye of Sauron gazing down on me ! Mix in with that the fact that it never gets truly dark thanks to the lingering twilight, and I'm just desperate for any respite. Hence why by the time we get to May, I'm on a countdown to the summer solstice... As even knowing that we've just started to turn the corner, is a welcome relief. But fortunately, at the moment I'm ok with everything, as I've still got a good quota of darkness. Lol @markyo Its actually a comfort to know that its not just me who feels like that as we get to May, as whilst everyone else is out enjoying the extra daylight, I just feel like some kind of outcast! ... And yes you have totally nailed with the the fact that its like staring into the entrance of a long dark tunnel... As early August at that point seems as far away as ever. @mb018538I've been called far worse things that strange and different... Trust me! Lol Its more the excess light rather than the heat... Although having said that, I'm certainly not a fan of the heat and hot weather... Unless there is a juicy thunderstorm at the end of it... But I'm starting to go way off topic with that one. Anyway... I've probably dragged this threat way off course, so my apologies to the Mods for that.

Morning @Mazand @*Stormforce~beka* Its an interesting post that you made @Maz, because as a reverse SAD sufferer, I'm exactly the same, but in reverse. (9 months of the year without SAD, and three months with it). The part of the year that it starts to strike me is about mid April onwards, but by the time we get to mid May, I find it really heavy going... June is just a long hard slog for me, and all I want to do is to crawl in a cave or somewhere dark and hibernate until around very late July, to August... Just to try and escape from the none stop sunlight of the summer ... As December and January are for yourselves. Anywhoo... I hope that you're both feeling better (SAD wise) now that the daylight is increasing.

Morning everyone. Well this morning I saw the first glimpse of the sun’s disc at 07:43, that’s just over 40 minutes earlier than it was at the beginning of January! Likewise, there is still a glimmer of dark blue light on the western horizon at 19:00! Plus the rate at which we’re gaining daylight is still increasing! The period of pre 15:30 sunsets and post 08:25 sunrises are now but a fading memory… Until we get to the end of the year again. Lol

Well it been over a month since the winter solstice, and the increasing daylight is really noticeable now. For my area, the sunset this evening is at 16:41... Exactly the same time as it was on Halloween! Plus we have gained almost 25 minutes in the morning as well. The pendulum is well and truly swing back the other way now.

Hello everyone. Its been a couple of weeks since I last did this, so lets have a look at what the CFS V2 is forecasting for the next four week for us........ Week 1 - 25th to the 31st January: The UK appears to be sat under a rather large ridge of high pressure that stretches way out into the North Atlantic... This would give us light winds, plus if the anticyclonic gloom dissipates, the risk of more frost and fog... Other than that... Not a lot else to say really. Week 2 - 1st to the 7th February: That massive ridge of high pressure appears to have sunk further south towards Spain and Portugal, with a trough of low pressure now starting to build up from North Eastern Canada, Greenland, and Iceland and slowly stretching its way towards us here in the UK. Looking at this chart, I would say that we'd be in a westerly and zonal airflow. Pretty average for the time of year really. Week 3 - 8th to the 14th February: For us here in the UK, it looks like a rinse and repeat of week two... But... But, but, but... That ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic appears now to be linking up with a Scandinavian/Siberian High and encircling the pole!! Could this pump cold(er) air into the trough of low pressure? Its too far out to tell, and this is a low res model... But I'd say one to keep a weather eye on. Week 4 - 15th to the 21st February: Very similar to week 3 but with slightly weaker looking anomalies. Plus with the orientation of the high over mainland Europe, and the fact that it appears to be covering England and Wales, I'm gonna say that this could put us in a mild and westerly airflow. Will it play out like this or not? Only time will tell. Hopefully this will help some of the more experienced members on here piece the puzzle together. But remember... The weather will do, whatever it wants to and there's nothing we can do about it, but watch.

Ok… That was lightning … And a very distant rumble of thunder! Evening everyone. Is this going to turn I into my first proper thundersnow event since the winter of 1981? … Probably not… But I can dream.

Hello everyone. So for the first time this year, I thought I'd have a quick look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomalies, to see if they can help any of the more experienced members on here shed some light as to what might happen. Week 1 - 10th to the 16th January: Low pressure pretty much centered over us here in the British isles, and the North Sea. Wind, rain, and Atlantic onslaught ... Pretty much normal for January. Week 2 - 17th to the 23rd January: A little bit of a change happening here... High pressure out over the Atlantic, and stretching out over the North Pole. Low pressure is now centered over Scandinavia. To me this would leave us in a northerly airflow. Now there is a possibility that the high pressure over the pole could start feeding in cold air into the low pressure over Scandinavia, and a possibility of snow showers affecting the eastern side of Britain. It could also be picking up on a classic 36 hour northerly toppler... Only time will tell... Week 3 - 24th to the 30th January: High pressure is now pretty much over the top of us, and also stretching out over the Atlantic! To me that says that we could well see the return of frost and fog... Your classic dull grey January days. Week 4 - 31st January - 6th February: All Change! The high pressure of the previous week is now moving off out, and over the north sea, low pressure now out in the Atlantic, just off the west coast of Ireland, could well leave us in a mild southerly airflow. To be fair, if this was a chart that appeared over the summer, I'd be personally get quite excited because of the threat of thunderstorms! Could we get thunderstorms off this kind of set up in February? Only time will tell. So there you make of that what you will! Hopefully this will help out some other members on here. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98196-model-output-discussion-new-year-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4786856

Hello everyone. So for the first time this year, I thought I'd have a quick look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomalies, to see if they can help any of the more experienced members on here shed some light as to what might happen. Week 1 - 10th to the 16th January: Low pressure pretty much centered over us here in the British isles, and the North Sea. Wind, rain, and Atlantic onslaught ... Pretty much normal for January. Week 2 - 17th to the 23rd January: A little bit of a change happening here... High pressure out over the Atlantic, and stretching out over the North Pole. Low pressure is now centered over Scandinavia. To me this would leave us in a northerly airflow. Now there is a possibility that the high pressure over the pole could start feeding in cold air into the low pressure over Scandinavia, and a possibility of snow showers affecting the eastern side of Britain. It could also be picking up on a classic 36 hour northerly toppler... Only time will tell... Week 3 - 24th to the 30th January: High pressure is now pretty much over the top of us, and also stretching out over the Atlantic! To me that says that we could well see the return of frost and fog... Your classic dull grey January days. Week 4 - 31st January - 6th February: All Change! The high pressure of the previous week is now moving off out, and over the north sea, low pressure now out in the Atlantic, just off the west coast of Ireland, could well leave us in a mild southerly airflow. To be fair, if this was a chart that appeared over the summer, I'd be personally get quite excited because of the threat of thunderstorms! Could we get thunderstorms off this kind of set up in February? Only time will tell. So there you make of that what you will! Hopefully this will help out some other members on here.