Dangerous55019

What a lovely day it's been... Some absolutely beautiful convective cloudscapes here this evening. The decaying fibreous anvil gave us one hell of a power shower when it passed over, and although the second photo isn't the best in the world, but you can see mammatus clouds.

Ok mate, gotcha.

Now that was a nice good distant booming rumble of thunder

Morning @Chris.R Don't give up hope just yet mate... The skies are brewing up very nicely around here! Lots of small single cell fibreous anvils!

Some incredibly unstable and convective looking skies around here at the moment.

Morning all, I hope that everyone enjoyed last nights unexpected storm. I've got to be honest, I've been keeping an eye on the Cape and LI charts, and yesterday was nothing to get excited over, or so I thought. It was pretty grey with gusty winds here yesterday evening, and I'll be honest, to me it felt more like an early autumn storm was starting to hit! So last nights storm came totally out of nowhere! Just goes to show what can happen when there is no cap in place. Anyway... Here's hoping that we all get some more unexpected storms out of nowhere before the season is over.

Enjoy @karyo

It appears to be kicking off again to my north west! ... Round two?

Sadly I think that the main excitement for me has now passed... But that really was a most unexpected, but very welcome little storm. And to everyone else, good luck and enjoy the nocturnal rattlers that are rumbling and flashing about at the moment.

Evening @karyo I know exactly what you mean... But by the looks of it storms are breaking out all around this area!

Just out with the dog before going to bed, and I'm watching a distant thunderstorm between Chester and Wrexham. ... Just seen a lovely anvil crawler.

Evening @Chris.R I also heard the sferic on the radio, and the sky over there is currently very dark! But nothing is showing up (as yet) on the storm radar. But loads of people on Facebook have confirmed lightning.

Looks like we've got a thunderstorm breaking just south of Wrexham! Loads of people reporting lightning strikes around that area!

Evening @Turnedoutniceagain The first mists appeared around here about four weeks ago I notice that there is a bumper crop of berries in the hedgerows as well Evening @Seasonality My thoughts exactly! I thought that this was the autumn thread, and all people seem to be doing is frothing over winter. As I said much earlier in this thread I'm hoping for a pleasant and sunny September, with lots of cool nights and misty mornings and hopefully a few last remaining summer thunderstorms, followed by an October that continues the cooling trend, and allows the misty mornings to slowly start developing into a foggy day or two about the middle of the month, before giving way to those misty start and end sunny days with that misty smokey golden haze to the air especially on the run up to Halloween. As the light in September and October is like no other time of the year, especially with the trees being on the turn. As for November, once the glory of the autumn colours are over, I hope we see a few big wind storms, as I does enjoy wrapping up and pulling my boots on for a nice long walk on a good ole blustery, late autumn day... Interspersed with many more misty mornings and evenings with that beautiful light that only a low sun in the sky can bring. I really don't know if it'll pan out like that of course, but there is now't wrong with hopecasting.

Ok, ok... Lol But at least I did manage to get a thunderstorm out of the one the other week. Lol If we do manage to brew anything up around here, I'll try and send it up your way @Mokidugway

I know it's not gonna go bang, but there is some very strong convection taking place to my East at the moment... This photo really doesn't do justice to how stunning it really looks.

Ok... I've just been to have a look at whats being forecast with the CFS daily run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=10 I have to say with regards to October that this chart from the 00z run has stuck out!! Now ok, its for the 21st of October, so that means you need to take it with about this much salt... But I wonder if this is one of the reasons why the Cansips model is going for an 'unsettled' looking October? But from my experience as a total amateur, I find that the daily CFS run is sort of reliable give or take a week or two either way. ... Anyone want to buy any battens? Lol

As requested, here is a closer look at this coming autumn from the Canadian Cansips model. Lets start off with September... Ok... The 500mb flow does look a tad unsettled for next month, but the precipitation chart shows that it really isn't as bad as it looks, likewise (especially for the south east) it looks like it could well be a bit on the warm side. So on the whole, certainly not a bad month. October... Now then, this does look like its gonna be an unsettled month, with low pressure, above average rainfall, and average temperatures... Hey, it's October. And finally November... Again, November has a deep area of low pressure over most of Europe, and we are on the north western edge of it, as a result it doesn't look too wet at this stage, and again average temperatures. So make of this what you will, but remember, average temperature in November will be (or hopefully should be) much cooler than they are now. So on the whole, I've seen a lot worse, and for what its worth, with regards to looking for trends, I really do rate this model from Canada.

I'm on the case... Just getting the required charts from the Cansips model.

Evening everyone Well, I have to say that the weather over the past few days has been (early) autumnal feeling to say the least! Rain over night and early on giving way to that heavy wet dampness on everything (especially the car when you get to it first thing in the morning), along with the strong gusty winds, and then followed by an afternoon of strong sunshine, but not too hot. But today I noticed a couple of steps towards the coming season... 1. I heard the autumn song of the robin for the first time this year as they mark out there feeding grounds. 2. I saw this tree!! Now I know its an Acer, and yes they do have a tendency to go very red or have red tipped leaves, but this does seem early to me... Not complaining mind. ... And before anyone says about it being stress through lack of water, that's one thing that hasn't lacked around these parts. Lol

It went very grey here about an hour ago... And headed off in that direction... But nothing from it at all.

Hiya @Chris.R Sorry, I've been out of the loop for a week, so I'm still playing catch up.

In the past five minutes or so, there is quite a large tower gone up over the Chester area. Although I doubt I'll see any activity today (apart from impressive convective cloudscapes), I'd say anyone North and East of Chester could get lucky.

Just come out to clean the car windows, and I've noticed some very strong convection happening over towards the Chester area. To be honest I wasn't expecting to see that... I might go for a walk with the hound after and see if I can get some photos of possible cells developing.

Morning @Azazel I see where you are coming from, personally I love the sights, colours and smells of autumn, it is certainly the best time of year for photography and getting out and about and just enjoying... But whatever happens, my advice to to go out and enjoy it