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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    The Irish Met must use a different computer model to the rest of the planet. Overnight runs continue to show excellent snowfall for NI over the weekend.
  2. mountain shadow
    Some interest in this chart for more Southern counties surely and confirms that most of Ulster will stay in the colder air throughout. http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=154335
  3. mountain shadow
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/carryduff#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358467200 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/carryduff#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358467200 Yes please. Snow pretty much all day Friday and Saturday.
  4. mountain shadow
    Seriously though, it will be Thursday morning before we can be very confident of the outcome. Stunning 18z tonight which finished with whole of Ireland being buried as the Atlantic moved in with -10 uppers widespread.
  5. mountain shadow
    When you look out your window and see the snow falling, that's when you relax.
  6. mountain shadow
    Well, the Met Office will understand the dynamics of the NAE better than us so we'll just have to wait and see. They ditched the previous run so I don't see any reason why this is run is any different and so so different from every other model output.
  7. mountain shadow
    If the 18z comes off NI is going to get mullered and we'll not hear from Pom until Spring. Piles of snow on Friday into Saturday follwed by a second big dumping on Sunday night. These charts are only a guide but gives you the idea... http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130115/18/126/uksnowdepth.png
  8. mountain shadow
    Well Julie, living at 200 metrs i would say you have to be in with a good shout.
  9. mountain shadow
    Snowydog. Its a very fluid situation at the moment. Currently looking good for snow Friday into Saturday but it can and will change. Again to reiterate the point that the further north and east you are with height will be best placed.
  10. mountain shadow
    Aye, we all know Pom will be snowed in up on Walton mountain. I think all Ireland members should head up there for the day. ;-()
  11. mountain shadow
    Incidentally the Met Office warning has been drawn through to include some ROI counties namely Dublin, Louth,Monaghan. Whether deliberate or not, who knows. If it does fall as snow im sure there will be a lot more than 2-5cm.
  12. mountain shadow
    If the front coming in from the Atlantic stalls more then yes more central counties could fare better. Its a case of keep watching and guessing.
  13. mountain shadow
    Geoff, as Pom says, there is no one can answer that with 100% accuracy. Might not be until Thursday and even them it could change!
  14. mountain shadow
    Well, were certainly more favoured Pom being in the North East with some height. Wouldnt fancy my chances in any ROI counties apart fromMeath, Louth, Monaghan and Donegall.
  15. mountain shadow
    Know doubt they will back on the 6Z!
  16. mountain shadow
    BBC forecast had sleet/snow for the east of NI on Friday and Saturday. Still impossible to say what will actually fall from the sky. As ever the further North and east the better with altitude will be most favoured.
  17. mountain shadow
    Well the overnight GFS appears to move the snow through quickly at the end of the week, the UKMET looks similar so all to play for. Still cant say whether we,ll get rain or snow. ECM good as well.
  18. mountain shadow
    The beeb have never shown a whiteout at this range. Best to ignore and stick to the models.
  19. mountain shadow
    They will always be cautious until 100% certain. It could still all go wrong Remember.
  20. mountain shadow
    Couldnt ask for better output tonight. Once in a generation stuff.
  21. mountain shadow
    So the ECM delays the Atlantic again and goes with UKMET undercut. Firm agreement that their will be a large snow event towards the end of the week, but need more runs to ascertain where the mild/cold boundary will be. Faxes will be fun later.
  22. mountain shadow
    They are useless, but the Met Office automated forecasts have updated to show a snow symbol for Friday night, along with gale force south easterlies means possible blizzards. To be taken with a large dose of salt, but that is the first snow symbol ive seen this winter and an indication that the Uk Met Computers have picked it up like the GFS above
  23. mountain shadow
    Its hard to believe that those snow charts are only 3 days away yet there is zero confidence in them occuring. Certainly nothing from they Met Office. Big big 12z tonight.
  24. mountain shadow
    As ever things are marginal at the end of the week as the Atlantic moves under the block. Anyone with a Bit of height should be excited by the potential. Thr further North and east will be nearer the cold air. All very messy and hard to predict though.
  25. mountain shadow
    GFS ops the only dissenter for the undercut I expect Exeter will change there forecasts for the end of the week Stunning output this morning, note the ECM delaying the return of the Atlantic again
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