[Moans, ramps and banter]

 richie3846 No, but above average for sure.

It's the increasing frequency this Spring for me, barely a dry day.

Looking forward to 4 or 5 days of dry weather to try and get the grass cut.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Another rainy morning. What a truly awful Spring this is.

My son's cricket pitch is essentially a bog and not likely to be playable until mid June at the earliest.  Effectively writing off half their season. 

Old fellas at the club cannot remember it as bad.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

As ever, any proper cold stays past day 10, so the risk of snow and ice remains very low.

In fact, I'm seeing more evidence that the Iberian ridge will have more influence than Northerly blocking. 

[When do you predict the first 20°C and 25°C of 2024 will be?]

First 20 - 25th March

First 25 - 26th April

First 30 - 31 May

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 MJB More likely than a White Christmas of course.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch But of course, the cold never arrived.

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 rwtwm More human input needs to be given to the model output.  For starters, any predicted decrease in the Iberian Desert High should be amended to increase it instead.

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 CryoraptorA303 And this on the back of almost all long range forecasts and teleconnections predicting colder than average prospects for February. 

Very, very scary what is coming.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

Global warming saving on those heating bills  

My Mrs has told me to get the grass cut tomorrow,  in the middle of February!

Never done that before. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 northwestsnow The former drops the Iberian heights whilst the latter maintains the Iberian Desert High at 1030mb.

Only one winner.

San Sebastian up to 22 degrees tomorrow.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 feb1991blizzard Great to see, but I guess like most, lets get in inside 5 days before getting excited.

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 raz.org.rain Indeed, and when the Atlantic does try and push in, the potential for extremely severe thunderstorms increases hugely.

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

Met Office philosophy must be to keep on forecasting cold with Northerly or Easterlies until it actually occurs.

Just goes to show, that even though they're Professionals, they have no clue either.

 

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 stewfox Winter runs from December to February and always has.

Whilst March may produce the goods, that is Spring.

So, unless there is some miraculous change in the model output,  there will be no proper cold for the rest of the month and therefore Winter.

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

For me, it's the expansion of the Hadley cell in Southern Europe such that the Iberian High has become an almost permanent feature and is turning Spain into a desert.

This expansion means the jet stream struggles to undercut into Europe and the real cold is kept in Scandinavia.

The Iberian High is now so powerful that it easily suppresses any influence by the teleconnections etc..

[Model banter and emotions]

 Lukesluckybunch The Iberian Desert High courtesyvof the expanded Hadley Cell due to AGW again scuppering all favourable projections and teleconnections.

The Spanish may be facing a horrendous drought. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 JoeShmoe For me, of course I'll be back, however, it will be with increasing scepticism about what the longer range models and teleconnections show.

Unless there projections are off the scale, then much less heed should be paid to them.

The warming world just makes it so much more difficult for us.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 daz_4 The Iberian High rules supreme. 

Nothing can stand in its way.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 WeatherArc Yes, the Winter killer permanent Iberian High trumping all that is thrown at it by SSWs, EAMTs, MJOs etc.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

Wasn't even close here.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

So, snow level is about 800 feet then?

Ain't going to impact very many then.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Epic fail on the snow forecast for today.

Seems short term modelling is just as bad as long term.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

Some fella on the Welsh forum lives at 1000 feet in Snowdonia, and it's rain for him, so what hope do we have?

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Chris.R I think the front is moving North quicker allowing less time for the colder air to undercut.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 cheshire snow indeed. I'm at 420 feet here in the Castlereagh hills and have gone from 36 hours of snow to 100% rain.

The precipitation has arrived early here and it's all rain.