Lettucing Gutted
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Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
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Its raining men by The Weather Girls!
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Without question when there is no snow, I want cold and dry weather with frosts, fog and sunshine! The sort of weather you'd get from a clean northerly or easterly type setup which is stable or a cold high which builds in after a spell or northerlies and/or easterlies. These weather types along with cool "sunshine and showers" are types I'd love to see all year but sadly they as rare as hens teeth in winter let alone summer! Our new default pattern is sadly now an alternation of British Monsoons (driven by Blowtorch Atlantic Zonality garbage) with heatwaves/Indian summers (driven by the Azores High, Scandi Ridge Bartlett High or Eurotrash High) and back! The infamous "warm warm warm" as dubbed by StratosFerric.
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Rest in pieces 2016! 12C
Last sub 0C, last sub 1C, last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 4C December all in 2010.
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You've forgot possibility 4. The Mid-Trough and Eurotrash High return to bring back Tropical Maritime Southwesterlies. Final CET from 7C to 8C!
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19 hours ago, Weather-history said:
That's pretty chilly for the first third of November. Possibly the coolest first third to November since 1980
Yet 1980 finished slightly above average at 6.6C. There is every chance we could beat that warm up this year. If November 2016 proves average, mild or even very mild (yet again) then its very likely that April 2016 will remain the only remotely cool month post September 2015, at least for this year.
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I wonder what the biggest July to November, August to November, September to November and October to November cooldowns are?
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On 28/10/2016 at 11:03, Man With Beard said:
I would absolutely love a synoptic explanation of your thinking.
Sorry I'm late with this. I believe we're going to see a long draw southwesterly dominated month due to an extensive but weak Mid-Atlantic Trough and a monster Bartlett High and Azores High. The main westerly jetstreams will all be in unusually northern latitudes with a very positive North Atlantic Oscillation and a very Positive Arctic Oscillation to boot. This won't be helped by the exceptional warmth all over the Extratropical regions. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been trying but failing to go negative. There also plenty of Atlantic Hurricanes still on the loose which would reinforce the Atlantic onslaughts as they re-curve and the QBO is still stuck in a double bill westerly phase.
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Even more significantly, October 2016 will be the warmest easterly October on record in the same way that August 2006 was the warmest northerly August on record.
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On 22/10/2016 at 20:51, nn2013 said:
I vaguely remember November 1993, it snowed on my ninth birthday! I remember the following day we were told school was shut. I don't know whether it's just me but I remember after Christmas that day (around 27th / 28th) it snowed heavily. My Dad went to a Birmingham City v West Brom game and cleared all the snow off the pitch with other fans. My Mum's cat was murdered by a vicious dog we had and I just remember my Mum being upset and I was just playing with my sister in the garden in the snow.
Has there ever been a winter where November to March or even November to February have delivered with cold wall to wall with the odd mild interlude?
The whole period of November 1878 through March 1879 was very cold. Gavin Partridge has been saying he will do a historic video about it 1 day.
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On 19/10/2016 at 18:31, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Right, start of the 4 Atlantic domination months, 4 above average months, 8.7C
Hyper Blowtorch Atlantic is the new norm!
Rest in pieces 'autumn' 2016! 13C
Last sub 3C November in 1915. Last sub 4C November in 1925. Last sub 5C November in 1993. Last sub 6C November in 2010.
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14 hours ago, Nick L said:
I look forward to the chronic misuse of the term "shortwave"
"If only it was June/July/August/summer"
"If only it was December/January/February/Winter"
"Wait and see"
"Downgrade"
"Egg on faces"
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2 hours ago, Seasonality said:
I'm not sure oceans have memories. An exception being in the excellent sci fi novel Solaris by Stanisław Lem
In effect oceans have a thermal memory. This is due to the great heat capacity of oceans compared to continental surfaces. In terms of the natural annual solar and heat cycle, oceans have a lag time of almost 3 months to respond to the changes in sign of solar radiation across both of the solstices. Anomalies in SST also persist for lengthy periods due to the great heat capacity of oceans. Even on longer time scales of centuries and even millennia oceans can take a very long time to respond to major long term climate changes.
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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:
September-winter link
Look at it this way, why would a specific 30 day period in the Earth's orbit would have an influence on a specific 90 day period in which there is a 61 day gap between the two said periods?
Whilst the association might seem random and arbitrary, I believe the "Very Mild September=Mild Winter Theory" is due to the "memory" of the associated September SST anomaly patterns in the North Atlantic which can determine the winter NAO pattern. This is the same idea behind use of the North Atlantic SSTs in May to predict the winter NAO pattern. September is also the month when North Atlantic and other northern oceans are often at their warmest temperatures for the year.
It is surprising though how there is apparently never any equivalent theory used for predicting the summer NAO pattern by using the North Atlantic SSTs from November or/and even March which is when North Atlantic and other northern oceans are often at their coldest temperatures for the year.
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On 07/10/2016 at 18:05, damianslaw said:
Hi - do you have the stats? 1740 ominous indeed...
Hi, I'm sorry for the delay with this. September 1740 was slightly mild at 14.0C and October 1740 was very cold and the coldest on record at 5.3C. A whopping drop of 8.7C!
According to hadcet. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
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4 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:
There we have it guys. We've finally sent someone nuts by moaning about mild rampers!!!!
Nice one Ian. I for one think that sounds like a well balanced, thought out forecast. With a fair chance of it coming into fruition. . . . Let the dream continue guys°°°°
That would certainly be my dream weather for a whole year and I would certainly love to forecast it but I know any forecast I ever make could never do Ian's forecast justice.
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On 04/10/2016 at 18:47, MidnightSnow said:
As much as I love snow more than anything, all I hope for is some proper cold, frosty mornings. Snow would just be a bonus.
Your right there mate. Post April 2013 I have nary even seen an air frost at the crack of dawn let alone an ice day or snow day. It feels like the Atlantic is deliberately conspiring to deprive us of any sort of cold snap these days, even the sort of throwaway topplers you could take for granted that would occur at least once a month are now as rare as hens teeth..
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On 05/10/2016 at 21:42, damianslaw said:
However, the most likely 2 months to achieve this feat I would have thought are Sept and October, as on average we see the largest difference / drop in CET finishing values between Sept and October, Oct and Nov a close second followed by March and April..
It will be even more remarkable for a very mild September to be followed by any sort of cold October as this very rarely happens. So far in the CET record there is a disproportionate case of the biggest September to October drops caused by near average/slightly mild Septembers followed by very cold Octobers, the most extreme case of this occurring in 1740.
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I'm very surprised Octobers 2009 and 2015 aren't in that list Roger. They had very mild second halves if I remember correctly.
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15.5C.
Last sub 6C October in 1740. Last sub 7C October in 1896. Last sub 8C October in 1992. Last sub 9C October in 1993.
I just noticed something, it was me that started this thread last October, and that's when the hideous mild train returned despite the coldest September since 1993. I guess I jinxed it last winter, eh?
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This is another great and interesting topic! However whilst I agree with most of this I am sceptical about paradoxical warming of the Arctic caused by the weakened Ferrel Cell. That might occur due to readjustments caused by changing wavelengths and Stratospheric Warming but that should only be temporary. I would have thought that a weakened and Equatorward displaced Ferrel Cell would have caused rapid cooling of the whole Arctic region at least. The Ferrel Cell is the main heat source of both the Mid-Latitudes and the High Latitudes. Extratropical Coastal Storms such as the Icelandic Low and Aleutian Low are also key to Arctic warm spells/heatwaves as they inject the Maritime Tropical air into the Arctic via Warm Air Advection in their Upper Level Ridges and Warm Sectors. However these storm systems would be further south with the Ferrel Cell weakened and displaced Equatorward with the warmth unable to ever reach the Arctic. With the Arctic Front (and Arctic Front Jetstream) and main Polar Front (and Polar Front Jetstream) further Equatorward, further cooling in the Arctic would also be caused by the inability of Continental Tropical Heatwaves to reach the Arctic from China, Central Asia, Europe and the United States. Additionally with the Icelandic Low further Equatorward, the warm North Atlantic Drift extension of the hot Gulf Stream would be very weak if it even remains at all thus causing further cooling.
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19C
Last sub 11C September in 1952. Last sub 12C September in 1986. Last sub 13C September in 2015. Winter 2016/2017 is over before its even started.
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I know I already mentioned enhancing weathering on my list of proposals earlier in this thread, however I am concerned about whether there is enough Silicate minerals (a vital weathering component) left on the Worlds mountains and lowlands to accommodate not only all the CO2 that humans are returning to the atmosphere (both directly via fossil fuel burning but also indirectly via positive feedbacks tied in with AGW), but also all the excess CO2 that is already up there (from our earlier contributions) and even the new CO2 which will always be generated by volcanoes.
If there is not enough Silicate minerals left to remove all excess CO2, at least in time to prevent dangerous Global Warming, would it be it possible to manufacture enough Silicate or similar mineral on a huge scale and in a short time frame? Preferably less than 20 years if non of the other proposals are used or prove effective.
Another issue with weathering is if the upper atmosphere from the upper troposphere upwards becomes so warm that either there is no more rainfall or even worse, most of the water vapour is lofted to the outer edges of our atmosphere and broken down by sunlight or blown away into space. If too much water is lost from Earth, then there would also be no more weathering to remove CO2.
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On 06/08/2016 at 20:39, iapennell said:
In fact the lower summer sunshine with reduced Earth tilt comes obliquely through a greater thickness of the atmosphere before reaching the surface so the effective reduction is likely to be upwards of 5% averaged over the year with little change to long-wave radiative heat loss. That will cause a substantial cooling effect which would probably more than offset the effect of increased CO2 levels.
The cooling effect will also be enhanced another way. Whilst the suns rays spreading through a greater thickness of the polar atmosphere will cool the polar troposphere on the one hand, on the other hand it will warm the stratosphere over the polar regions which will enhance high pressure formation over the higher latitudes. The strong high pressure systems will spread the frigid arctic and Antarctic airmasses into lower latitudes thus cooling the temperate and tropical regions as well. Any compensating increase in deep tropospheric WAA in the poles via this process should be overridden by the great modification of tropical airmasses as they cross the cooling ocean and land areas as well as expanding icecaps. The tropical airmasses would be even greatly modified at the source regions due to more intense and frequent cold waves and cooling oceans. The latter process would also be enhanced if the seeding of marine stratocumulus and stratus decks over the oceans I mentioned earlier is employed. A natural version of these atmospheric changes actually occurred in the coldest years of the Dalton Minimum, especially "The Year Without A Summer" 1816 which had an expanded but so-called "short-circuit" cross Polar Cell.
On 06/08/2016 at 21:16, stewfox said:Unfortunately this year was very low. A contributor to the heat budget
Let's hope this is just a temporary blip due to that monster El Nino. We would be in big trouble if this is already a tipping point being breached in the Antarctic.
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On 05/08/2016 at 07:58, cheeky_monkey said:
The UK does not do Autumn not really..my favourite time of the year is Autumn in Alberta..trees start to turn in the third week in August and by Mid September the whole countryside is awash with yellows and orange..weather is usually great in September with warm sunny days and cool/cold nights..the first snows usually arrive the first or second week of October..but those 6 weeks from end of August are something the UK doesn't even get close to.
Your making me jealous! "Autumn" in Blighty is now fast becoming 1 long hot Indian Summer interspersed with mild Atlantic mush and the odd toppler or/and Inversion Cold snap, with true autumn patterns (storms!) now only arriving in "winter" and "spring" with scarcely even any Inversion Cold or topplers!
I wouldn't read too much into the August decline post 2004. We always seem to get these quirky exceptions to the greater changes effecting other months. Remember the cool 1960s? This decade actually was the warmest decade for both June and October at least until the 2000s. June and October then cooled into the 1970s and didn't start warming dramatically again until the 2000s. The cool but very changeable 1970s was also the warmest decade on record for December. The very cold December 1981 also masked an otherwise very mild decade for December in the 1980s which was again another cool but very changeable decade for the other months. December also erratically cooled from 1990 through 2010 which of course was an otherwise very warm period for the rest of the year. On the other hand the very mild 2010s seem to be masking the exceptional cold of December 2010 and March 2013 so far.
1 thing that can really shake things up in August is the paths of former Atlantic Hurricanes. The often reviled August 2014 had good potential to be very warm as with the rest of 2014 however an abrupt and rapid shift in the path of Ex-hurricane Bertha from Iceland southeast into France caused a complete but temporary flip in the otherwise stubborn Mid-Atlantic Trough/Eurotrash Ridge pattern with northerlies and cold zonality westerlies giving us our coldest August since 1993 only for the Mid-Atlantic Trough/Eurotrash Ridge pattern to return once August was over. In a similar vain the southerly tracking Ex-hurricane Charley in the August Bank Holiday of 1986 played a key role in maintaining the very cold North Atlantic Blocking and southerly tracking Jetstream pattern which had dominated most of 1986 thus giving us a very cold August and very cold September to round off the cold for that year.
On the other hand August 2004 was very wet but also very warm due ex-hurricanes taking a more sluggish northern track through Britain.
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Predictions for 2017?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Lettucing Gutted
2017 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET. The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally. This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies and leaves a "weak polar stream" swirling around a dying Greenland PV. The subtropical jet also reaches the Artic and replaces the dead polar jet. A main "weak subtropical stream" swirls around the North Pole whilst an even weaker "weak subtropical stream" merges with the last "weak polar stream" swirling around the dying Greenland PV. The African Monsoon Trough finally jumps the Sahara and Mediterranean into Europe and affects Britain and Europe from the 1000mb to the 500mb level with an outflow ridge on top to form the British Monsoon system. The British Monsoon forms a monster Mid-Atlantic Ridge and a monster Bartlett Ridge sending heatwaves to obliterate the last of the Artic Ice. Britain always remains mild if not very mild in winter and always remains hot if not very hot in the other seasons but swings from flood to drought so many times you just can't keep up! Britain gets monster floods from the interaction of the British Monsoon with Spanish Plumes which also create Supercell Thunderstorms and F5 Twisters. However Britain also gets monster droughts when ex-hurricanes and/or rare "weak stream" troughs send the monster Mid-Atlantic Ridges toppling over Britain and merging into the monster Bartlett Ridges. I am also expecting an explosive "Methane Burp" to occur in 2017 as the warming oceans destabilise Methane Hydrates. Combined with yet more water vapour from the warming oceans, this Methane Burp will worsen global warming more than ever this year.
January the warmest on record 9.5C
February the warmest on record 10C
March the warmest on record 12C
April the warmest on record 14C
May the warmest on record 17.5
June the warmest on record 20.5C
July the warmest on record 22C
August the warmest on record 21.5C
September the warmest on record 19C
October the warmest on record 15.5C
November the warmest on record 13C
December the warmest on record 12C
2017 will be the Bob Beamon Year of CET Warming.