Lettucing Gutted
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Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
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Another mild washout whimper to end another naff year. Rest in pieces 2017! 12C
Last sub 0C, last sub 1C, last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 4C December all in 2010.
200mm
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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:
Fantastic stuff. Looks like the 1960's had a lot of cold November's.
It would be great if we get onto the November list, at least proving that the century so far can get something right for us at the time of year it matters.
Since you clearly enjoyed that, do we have any examples of Autumn's which saw September's and November's below the 1981-2010 average but had October at least 1C above.
Thanks Summer Blizzard. Interestingly, at least in the recorded part of the Little Ice Age, Octobers with CETs of at least 12C were almost unheard of. The first on record was 1811. However that autumns September and November were both slightly mild (13.7C and 7.7C respectively) so they don't the criterion of at least 1C below average.
Autumn 1831 had an October that was 12.7C. The prior September was slightly mild at 13.7C whilst the following November was cold at 5.6C. October 1831 remains the warmest on record to be followed by a sub 6C November.
Autumn 1921 had an October that was almost the first 13C at 12.8C. The prior September was slightly mild at 14.1C whilst the following November was very cold at 4.6C. October 1921 remains the warmest on record to be followed by a sub 5C November.
Autumn 1969 had an October that was the first 13C at 13C. The prior September was slightly mild at 13.9C whilst the following November was cold at 5.4C. October 1969 remains the warmest on record to be followed by a sub 6C November.
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Summer Blizzard, If you mean consecutively from year to year then here is a list for all months of the year that were at least 1C consecutively below average:-
January 1979 and 1980 (we had a close but no cigar in 2009 and 2010)
February 1985 and 1986 (this potentially could have been a 10 year run from 1978 to 1987 but this was broken up by milder Februarys)
March 1984 and 1985 (this was almost a 4 year run from 1984 to 1987)
April 1917 and 1918 (1919 just missed out on making this a 3 year run. There have been some close but no cigars since in 1969 and 1970, and 1977 and 1978. Even in the cooler 20th century consecutive near average or mild or even very mild Aprils were favoured over well below average Aprils)
May 1897 to 1899 (this 3 year run from 1897 to 1899 almost included 1900. There was also close but no cigars since in 1906 and 1907, 1962 and 1963, 1967 and 1968, and 1983 and 1984. As with April, consecutive well below average, at least 1C below the 1961-1990 average Mays have been very rare since 1900)
June 1971 and 1972 (there have been some close but no cigars since in 1977 and 1978, 1990 and 1991, and 2012 and 2013)
July 1965 and 1966 (there have been some close but no cigars since in 1980 and 1981, and 2011 and 2012)
August 1985 and 1986 (this was almost a 4 year run from 1985 to 1988. 1992 and 1993 was a close but no cigar)
September 1922 and 1923 (there were close but no cigars since in 1927 and 1928, 1931 and 1932, 1962 and 1963, and 1993 and 1994)
October 1992 and 1993 (there was a close but no cigar in 2002 and 2003)
November 1936 and 1937 (there was a close but no cigar since in 1961 and 1962 and a 5 year close but no cigar from 1965 to 1969)
December 2008 to 2010 (even this feels a lifetime away now!)
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On 22/10/2017 at 12:23, iapennell said:
I wonder if another major climatic transition hasn't occurred: Since 2008 but, in particular since 2013, our Autumns are no longer seasonal. Long spells with south or south-west winds have come to dominate our Octobers to an extent they never used to. No northerlies (let alone those with a fetch to north of the Arctic Circle) ever seem to affect our Octobers when they once did!
Consequently, we no longer get the crisp frosty spells that were guaranteed to occur at least once in Octobers of the past! In recent autumns there has been a trend towards very warm southerly winds during the last ten days of the month - in particular the run-up to Halloween!!
Myself and Northeasterly Blast believe that the UK climate has warmed in stages. Stage 1 began with the very stormy October 1987 which cumulated with the "Hurricane" and this whole initial period ended with the cold January 1997. During this initial period there was a sudden uptick in extremes such as storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves and other exceptional mild spells. Already in tis period mild years and mild or even very mild seasons began to dominate, however occasional cold or even very cold seasons still occurred whilst the occasional cold year still occurred. Sub 10C still rivalled double figure years for their occurrence. Stage 2 began with the very mild February 1997 and ended with the unexceptionally cold March 2006. During this period any remotely cold seasons or years were non-existent whilst even slightly below average months became ever rarer. Pitiful cold spells via short-lived topplers, easterlies or inversion cold were still common though. Very mild or mild seasons were already becoming the new norm with years almost always in double figures apart from 2001. Stage 3 began with April 2006 and ended with June 2007. During this period even pitiful cold spells were very rare, whilst even remotely cold months were non-existent. Every season and nearly every month was near-record breaking or even record breaking. The 12 months from May 2006 to April 2007 inclusive averaged way above 11C.
The cold July 2007 to cool June 2013 period saw something of a return to at least Stafe 1 conditions were very mild months, easons and even years were still comoon. Howwver these were offset by much more potent cold spells in all seasons. Cold months, seasons and years made an unexpected return with DECember 2010 and March 2013 near record breakingly cold. Alas, starting with the very hot July 2013, I believe we have entered Stage 4 Uk warming. This period has seen even pitiful cold spells via topplers, shortlived easeerlies become aamost non-existant. Cold seaons and years are once again noon-existant. Even remotely cool months are very hard to ahive in any year with the coold anaomlies of August 2017 and Septembe 2017 being very feeble. This period has seen very mild seaons bemore the norm with a record breaking mild Demcber 2015 and the warmest year on record, 2014, occurring only 3 years after 2011 which occurred only 5 years aftee 2006. Monster stroms have become the norm whislst even sub-10C years aree non-existent.
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Rest in pieces 'autumn' 2017! 13C
Last sub 3C November in 1915. Last sub 4C November in 1925. Last sub 5C November in 1993. Last sub 6C November in 2016.
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On 20/10/2017 at 08:59, sundog said:
I always think of the winter of 87/88 as the end of our old climate and the start of our new one. It's been mostly downhill ever since. With our winters. Perhaps that Oct 87 storm was among the first signs.
As terrible as the 1703 storm disaster was, it was an isolated event. Atlantic Storms of all degrees of severity were otherwise very rare in The Little Ice Age. Other monster storms in the LIA such as the Spanish Armada Of 1588 disaster, seemed to do their worst at sea rather then affect most of the UK as often happens now. In contrast, the Storm Of '87 was soon followed by more monster storms. Just to name a few of the most infamous, the Burns Day Storm in 1990, the Christmas storms in 1997, 1998 and 1999, the storm of January 1993, the storm of January 2007 and all the named storms in autumn 2013 and 2015 and 2017 and winters 2013/2014, 2014/2015, and 2015/2016 and spring 2016. Our climate has indeed become more stormy as well as very mild after the summer of '87.
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Shocking that temperature table. The Arctic hasn't had a really cold summer since at least 1996... Their last really cold winter was at least back in 1996/1997.
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I miss long fetch and potent northerlies a million times more than my imaginary girlfriend. I believe the rapid loss of Arctic Ice and snow over the last 30 years has played a part with the cold air being increasingly moderated at source. The loss of ice and snow has caused the strongest thermal gradient and with it the Jetstream to shift north which makes it ever harder for northerlies to establish and/or last long. Mind you, I think Phil nw has explained it better than me.
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1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:
I'll take that in these testing times, could October come in below too and make it 3 in a row? whiskers welcome.
It will be very strange if August to and including December all came in below and yet none of them beat even the pitiful "cool" anomalies from July 2002, October 2002, July 2004, October 2004, November 2005 and December 2005.
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21 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:
This September was cooler than average Craig, you must have liked that?
September 2017 was barely below average by the width of a whisker!
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When I was younger in cooler times, autumn use to be my favourite season of the year but sadly now thanks to the "Christmas Pudding" I hate it.
I really love the bright, dry and crisp weather brought by inversion cold highs or even early northerly or easterly blasts with their variety of fogs, frosts and even snow. I also love the cool and gentle showers that accompany cool westerly airstreams. Another type of autumn weather I love and miss is cool drizzly and misty weather.
Sadly these days especially there is a lot of autumn weather I hate including "Indian Summer" mild weather, mild Atlantic mush and monster storms with their blowtorch zonality, monsoonal rains and hurricane force winds!
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15.5C.
Last sub 6C October in 1740. Last sub 7C October in 1896. Last sub 8C October in 1992. Last sub 9C October in 1993.
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5 hours ago, MP-R said:
Sounds very similar to last November.
November 2016 was way cooler and drier than what that forecast suggests. If that forecast is correct, at best we will probably get a cross between November 2006 and 2008 - a mild and mixed November which hopefully at least won't be a repeat of 2009, 2011 and 2015.
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That summer was one of the hottest of the Little Ice Age and a very rare hot summer for the late 1600s.
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Usually bad air quality is the result of hot dry continental tropical high pressure systems bringing polluted air from the south, southeast or easterly quadrants aka Eurotrash Highs.
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19C
Last sub 11C September in 1952. Last sub 12C September in 1986. Last sub 13C September in 2015. Winter 2016/2017 is over before its even started.
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On 12/08/2017 at 17:54, Relativistic said:
I can see it happening, simply because it would totally ruin any chance of getting an unusually cool August. Got to cram in as many sub-15C Augusts as we can, before it's too late!
In the 30 years since the very cold August 1986, sub 15C Augusts have been few and very far between. So few Infact that there was only 2 in 1993 and 2014. Even if its not too late, I highly doubt I'll live to see another sub 15C August.
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As well as the ability to produce snow showers, there are other phenomena that differentiate Cumulonimbus Calvus from Cumulus Congestus. Cumulonimbus Calvus can produce hail and/thunderstorms however Cumulus Congestus doesn't have enough ice crystals, graupel or ice pellets for another of these to occur. Strong tornadoes are reserved exclusively for Cumulonimbus clouds whilst Cumulus Congestus can only rarely even produce weak tornadoes or waterspouts.
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Cumulonimbus Calvus indeed have smoother heads than Cumulus Congestus as well as softer heads. This is because at least the upper part of Cumulonimbus Calvus contains individual ice crystals and even full snowflakes. In fact in classic unstable Arctic outbreaks with little modification that occur in winter and even spring and autumn, Cumulonimbus Calvus are very common and consists almost entirely of snowflakes and ice crystals. Cumulus Congestus on the other hand consist almost entirely of rain and supercooled water droplets which gives these clouds hard and rough tops. In the tropics due to the very high freezing levels and muggy and thick troposphere, Cumulus Congestus clouds grow to altitudes many times greater than the small Cumulonimbus Incus clouds which build in the unstable and icy and thin troposphere over seas near the poles as well as in winter over mid latitudes in unstable arctic air.
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Rest in pieces summer 2017! 21.5C
Last sub 13C August in 1912. Last sub 14C August in 1986. Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.
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I know I'll almost certainly never see a proper chiller of an autumn like 1919 or even 1993 ever again but I would love a combination of modestly cool September 2015, modestly October 2003 and modestly cold November 2016. Even in the early stages of this terrible warming era that still isn't too much to ask for surely?
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15 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:
here in Edmonton we are at 20.6c which is 4.6c above normal..has been a hot dry start to July..with ave 27.6C high and 13.6c low
If that weather lasts too long, it will bring the Dust Bowl back.
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On 09/07/2017 at 18:33, Spikey M said:
As long as October knows it's place this year. None of this Indian Summer nonsense please!
I would love to see a real chiller of an October for a change but sadly the last sub 8C October was way back in 1992 and even sub 9C was way back in 1993! 1993 was also the last time the whole autumn was a real chiller with a cool July, August and February as bonuses. Even December 1993 had cold zonality in parts at times.
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I want to relive 1816, the year without a summer.
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Last sub 0C, last sub 1C, last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 4C December all in 2010.
Last sub 3C November in 1915. Last sub 4C November in 1925. Last sub 5C November in 1993. Last sub 6C November in 2016.
Where have the long fetch northerlies gone?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Lettucing Gutted
That's very interesting Grey Wolf. The sight of beached ice combined with the extreme temperature contrasts must have been very surreal, at least for Germany! Would such ice beachings combined with the temperature extremes, at least in Germany, be exclusively winter and spring phenomena or can they occur in other seasons as well?