[December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions]

Another mild washout whimper to end another naff year and my worst year ever.  Rest in pieces 2018!  12C    Last sub 0C, last sub 1C, last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 4C December all in 2010.

200mm of Atlantic garbage

[NH patterns Autumn 2018 - Forget the analogues ...]

With a blocking Scandi High of 588 DAM there must some exceptionally warm air tied in with that one!  Even my wildest blowtorch predictions have never foreseen a 588 DAM Scandi High in the middle of November.  That must be unprecedented for late autumn and winter.  Even in summer heatwave patterns, 588 DAM Highs in High and Mid-High Latitudes are exceptional and noteworthy.  You'd think though, that such a 500 HPA High would be impossible without low level maximum temperatures in the 30C+ range?

[November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest]

It would be nice to get the coldest autumn of the century for a change but for that we need to beat autumn 2010s 9.77C and for that, November 2018 must finish no warmer than 5C.

[November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest]

Rest in pieces miserable "autumn" 2018!  13C    Last sub 3C November in 1915.  Last sub 4C November in 1925.  Last sub 5C November in 1993.  Last sub 6C November in 2016.

200mm of Atlantic garbage

[July to November 1993: cold]

I've always believed that cold period was a residual effect of the temporary but sharp global cooling which was caused by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991.

[Least favourite weather events]

Winters 2013/2014, 2014/2015, 2015/2016, 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 were all too mild and wet and stormy for my liking.  Summers 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018 have also been too hot and muggy.  Autumns 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 and 2018 have all been too warm and often wet.  Springs 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 have also been too mild and often wet for me.

[October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest]

15.5C.  The summer of hell is giving away to the autumn of hell.   Last sub 6C October in 1740.  Last sub 7C October in 1896.  Last sub 8C October in 1992.  Last sub 9C October in 1993.

200mm of Atlantic garbage

[Arctic melt Season 2018]

6 hours ago, jvenge said:

I guess the issue with the arctic is there is no doomsday scenario as with Greenland or Antarctica. Nobody can really say why an ice free arctic would be bad in summer. Some might try and handwave some tenuous link to coastal erosion, but thats about it.

As well as the "positive" feedback involving reduced albedo, the biggest doomsday scenario resulting from Arctic Sea ice loss is the massive release of methane from the Arctic seabed.

[September 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest]

@CheeseAndOnionCrisps  Not all summer and autumn Atlantic months are cold.  In fact some have been warm or very warm.  Examples are September 2002, September 2004, September 2006 and September 2011, August 2000, August 2002 and August 2004, July 2010 and July 2017.  All of these months were dominated by unsettled warm and humid Maritime Tropical Atlantic Systems due to a Warm Zonality jet or the UK being in the eastern side of the Mid-Atlantic Trough.  Even in months were most of the UK is stuck under hot and dry Continental Tropical air, at least northwestern Scotland is often stuck under Maritime Tropical West/Southwesterlies.

[September 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest]

The curse of the "Summer Of Hell" continues...  19C    Last sub 11C September in 1952.  Last sub 12C September in 1986.  Last sub 13C September in 2015.  Winter 2018/2019 is over before its even started.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage.

[Who else cant wait for this heatwave to end??]

I'm with NTC et el.  Its time for the Summer Of Hell to do one!

[Does the very cold weather of late Feb/early March seem like a lifetime ago?]

The lovely cold winter weather of Febreer and March feels a million lifetimes away for me.  I fear we will have to suffer another 5 years without a winter before we see its likes again, at least.  Needless to say I have hated the hellish heatwaves that have been with us (with only brief interruptions of Atlantic garbage) since April!  In contrast I loved the "classic" cold weather in February and March though I wish March wasn't as wet as it was. 

[August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest]

Rest in pieces summer 2018!  21.5C     Last sub 13C August in 1912.  Last sub 14C August in 1986.  Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

[July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest]

The misery of the 3rd millennium continues...  22C    Last sub 14C July in 1922.  Last sub 15C July in 1988.  Last sub 15.5C July in 2011.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

[June 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest]

20.5C    Last sub 12C June in 1972.  Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.

200 mm from Atlantic garbage and monsoons.

[May 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest]

Rest in pieces 'spring' 2018!  17.5C    Last sub 9C May in 1902.  Last sub 10C May in 1996.  Last sub 11C May in 2015.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

[March 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest]

Whilst I'm a bit sad that March 2018 wasn't as cold as it could have been, I am happy that we finally achieved some back to back cold proper months.  2 so far.  We have to go back to the "big 6" of "January through June 2013 for the next last period of proper cold back to back months.

[April 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest]

14C    Last sub 5C April in 1837.  Last sub 6C April in 1986.  Last sub 7C April in 1989.  Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.

200mm of Atlantic garbage!

[February 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (and optional EWP precip contest)]

Finally our first proper cold month of any measure since November 2016!!  This was also the first proper cold February since 2010 and shares its temperature of 2.9C. Also the most decent winter month since February 2010.  Februaries 2010 and 2018 are also the joint 4th coldest months of the 21st Century and the 3rd Millennium so far.

[March 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest]

I'm dreaming of a White Easter but sadly... 12C    Last sub 2C March in 1883.  Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.

200mm of Atlantic garbage.

 

[February 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (and optional EWP precip contest)]

Rest in pieces 'winter' 2017/2018!  10C    Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C February in 2010.  Last sub 3.5C February in 2013.  Out with a mild whimper...

Also very wet with 500mm

[Predictions for 2017?]

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned anything about the complete lack of cold months in 2017.  Even the coolest months anomaly wise (August, September, November and December) were all very close to average and at least compared to all 3 modern 30 year averages, they were below average by the smallest amount on record.  This even beats hte very feeble cool anomalies from 1999, 2002, 2004 and 2005.

[January 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (with optional precip contest)]

I forgot my precipitation forecast.  200mm

[2018 Hopes & Predictions]

2018 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET.  The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally.  This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies and leaves a "polar weakstream" swirling around a dying Greenland PV.  The subtropical jet also reaches the Artic and replaces the dead polar jet.  A main "subtropical weakstream" swirls around the North Pole whilst an even weaker "subtropical weakstream" merges with the last "polar weakstream" swirling around the dying Greenland PV.  The African Monsoon Trough finally jumps the Sahara and Mediterranean into Europe and affects Britain and Europe from the 1000mb to the 500mb level with an outflow ridge on top to form the British Monsoon system.  The British Monsoon forms a monster Mid-Atlantic Ridge and a monster Bartlett Ridge sending heatwaves to obliterate the last of the Artic Ice.  Britain always remains mild if not very mild in winter and always remains hot if not very hot in the other seasons but swings from flood to drought so many times you just can't keep up!  Britain gets monster floods from the interaction of the British Monsoon with Spanish Plumes which also create Supercell Thunderstorms and F5 Twisters.  However Britain also gets monster droughts when ex-hurricanes and/or rare "weakstream" troughs send the monster Mid-Atlantic Ridges toppling over Britain and merging into the monster Bartlett Ridges.  I am also expecting an explosive "Methane Burp" to occur in 2018 as the warming oceans destabilise Methane Hydrates.  Combined with yet more water vapour from the warming oceans, this Methane Burp will worsen global warming more than ever this year.

January the warmest on record 9.5C

February the warmest on record 10C

March the warmest on record 12C

April the warmest on record 14C

May the warmest on record 17.5C

June the warmest on record 20.5C

July the warmest on record 22C

August the warmest on record 21.5C

September the warmest on record 19C

October the warmest on record 15.5C

November the warmest on record 13C

December the warmest on record 12C

2018 will be the Bob Beamon Year of CET Warming.

[January 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (with optional precip contest)]

9.5C    Last sub -3.0C January in 1795.  Last sub -2.0C and sub -1.0C January in 1963.  Last sub 0C January in 1979.  Last sub 1C January in 1987.  Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.