Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Lettucing Gutted

.Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,109

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted

    Summer 2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Craig Evans

    The sun itself is actually the strongest in the period centered around 21-22nd June aka the Summer Solstice.  However late July and yes often early-mid August is the hottest time of the year because although the solar radiation slowly gets weaker both the Land and Oceans in the summer hemisphere respond slowly to the reduction in solar radiation with the land been hottest in late July and the Ocean in September.  This is seasonal lag.

    • Like 1

    July 2013 CET Forecasts / Competition

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Craig Evans

    For a rapid change in the other direction from exceptional warm months to exceptional cold months we have to go all the way back to 1985/1986 which had a 6.3C December followed by a -1.1C February and a 5.8C April.  For the second such example we have to go back to 1978/1979 which had a 8.5C November followed by a -0.4C January.

    Your ideal climate?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Craig Evans

    You're right, that climate is horrendous! Surely pollution contributes to the low sunshine hours? I can't imagine somewhere in central China being on a par with the Shetland islands for sunshine "naturally".

    In addition to pollution another key factor for the low sunshine hours in Chongqing is the Asian Monsoon System.  The cool and damp Northeast winter monsoon acts like a giant fog machine drawing cool air from the north over the even colder East China Sea leading to widespread dense fogs and thick Stratus cloud which is maintained over the cold ground too.  Also the hot and humid Southwest summer monsoon generates lots of thunderstorms which merge into big Mesoscale Convective Complexes with extensive stratiform canopies.

    • Like 1

    Weather Poll And Chat - Summer 2013 - What Weather Do You Like?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    As in all the other seasons I like both cool nights and cool days.  As long the air is cool and fresh I enjoy both dry and sunny days, or sunny and showery/thundery days.  I  also like both cool and breezy days and cool and calm days.  I also like both cool drizzly weather and normal cool rain.  As long as the rain is not too heavy I also like thunderstorms and hail.  I dislike heat and humidity and monsoonal-like downpours.

    August 2013 C.E.T. Forecasts / Competition

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Craig Evans

    As the nights get longer the heat grows stronger.  20C

     

    Interestingly though August post 2004 has been the only month not to record a CET in the "well above average category".  Also post 2004 August has also become the month with the least extremes in monthly CET with both the coolest and warmest CETs finishing within 1C of average.  We have also had our longest run of sub 17C Augusts since the 1960-1974 run.

    • Like 2

    Summer 2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Craig Evans

    August has not been a summer month at all in recent years-surely it's time for that to change! Amazingly August has recorded just one day over 25C here since 2007. 

    Indeed.  Post 2004 August has also been the only month of the year not to record a single monthly CET in the "well above average category".

    Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Craig Evans

    So what is classic autumn weather? Gales, rain?But Keats says its the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness.

    I would like to think of a classic autumn as a changeable season similar in that respect to classic springs but with a reverse temperature trend of course.  In each month there should be lengthy spells of cool stormy and/or cool showery weather alternating with lengthy calm periods giving cold nights and milder days with only short periods of unseasonably warm and wintry weather in each month.

    • Like 2

    July 2013 CET Forecasts / Competition

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Craig Evans

    This morning's model runs look even hotter and there could be some record-threatening ahead on the daily scale, month could be edging up towards third behind 2006, 1983 and even those aren't totally out of reach at this rate. Some maps around 22nd-24th look like 32-34 C daytime and 23-25 C mean daily.

     

    Any concept of an end of month cooldown is very likely to see downgrades.

    It looks like July (2006 and 2013) will join April (2011 and 2007), August (1995 and 1997), October (2001 and 2005/2006) and November (1994 and 2011) in achieving their top 2 warmest ever CETs all in a return period of only 2 to 17 years.

    Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Craig Evans

    I know I said I would like a stormy October but if someone offered an October 1740 repeat to me then I would take that over the gales. I wonder if those conditions are even possible without a volcanic eruption, considering the October 1740 CET value was a massive 1.1C colder than October 1817 (2nd coldest October). I'm no expert so wouldn't be able to answer this question myself, but I'm sure someone on here could. What kind of synoptics would be needed to even get an October in the 6's?

    It will be a very hard pattern to sustain in the non-winter months but to get a really cold October (sub 7C) we would be looking for the same sort of Synoptics that give us Freezing winter months.  Such months have a very strong and flat southern arm of the Polar Jet combined with a highly amplified ridge-trough pattern in the northern arm of the Polar Jet.  Also the Greenland High often alternately ridges into Scandinavia and retrogresses so that we get Arctic/Continental Polar airmasses coming from both Easterly and Northerly quarters keeping the milder Atlantic and Continental Tropical airmasses at bay.

    • Like 1

    Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It's too hot!

    Looking forward to autumn, being able to sleep at night and not having to constantly worry about sweaty armpits!

    An Active "Arctic" Cold Front similar to that in Mr Data's videos from 8-9th July 1993 would get us off to a great and early start to autumn.  Posted Image Posted Image  Unfortunately unlike 1993 the Arctic is now too warm for such summer cold blasts.

×
×
  • Create New...