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Geordiesnow

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Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

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  1. Some of the flashes in terms of their brightness in the last 20 mins has been insane, the pink hues really turning night into day briefly. Ironically the rain is not as heavy as the radar may suggest but the structure and seeing the clouds tops on Sat 24 is just epic really.
  2. Calming down here now with lightning more infrequent but still aa very impressive storm. Apart from at the start where the rain was proper torrential, rainfall struggled to get back into any meaningful intensity which was ashame as that always adds to a storm.
  3. Think we just had a massive CG lightning strike here, best thunder of the night.
  4. It's actually a fairly safe storm as all the lightning are cloud to cloud, one of those where strikes to houses or power cut are much slimmer. Down side is the quieter thunder sounds but the light show is making up for that.
  5. A bigger drop of 68K on today's JAXA site. To put it in some perspective though, 2012 is now almost 200K ahead of this year which really highlighted just how unprecedented those extent reductions were then. Whilst I'm not expecting similar this year, the ice pack in the Chukchi part really looks prime for quite large drops, it's heavily diffused and larger open water areas are appearing. I suspect very soon the ice shape will look quite a bit different even though weather and SSTS are nothing to write home about. What I am interested in is just how persistent those southerly winds up to the pole are forecast to be, usually if winds are blowing from the south between Greenland and Svalbard it may not be a bad thing as it reduces fram export significantly but with the ice edge so far North and the ice looking thin albeit not really diffused then you do wonder just how far north that ice edge will get. September and significantly colder temperatures can't come soon enough for the ice. Still maintaining the prediction the final extent figure will be at around 3.7 million, just can't see how it will finish above last years total, any extra ice in the Beaufort will surely not be enough.
  6. Temperatures over the ice do go over zero when near open water and in particular any landmasses hence my example I gave that we are not looking at plus 10C upper air temperatures and 30C heat at ground levels hitting the basin. Any 'heat' above is very unlikely to affect the ice at that location where the positive anaomolies are, it might do in terms of volume but I got my doubts on that one as supposed thicker ice is more resilient to higher temperatures. If the positive anaomolies was over diffused ice and in an area near open water then that will be more noteworthy because its affects on the ice will bound to be more notable. The melt season is far from over and regardless where we end up, it has not been a good melt season for the ice and the record lows in July is another sign of faster ice retreat.
  7. Yes, there is a warm air mass aloft but not at ice level. Your post said there is heat over the thickest part of the ice yet looking at surface temperatures, they are pegged at or near zero. What was your post implying? It certainly won't have an impact on extent and I don't think it will impact on volume either because the temperatures at ice level is around zero. I just look at the weather charts and there is nothing that should be too alarming for the ice, unlike in July when we had that persistent block. Given the weather conditions then I say a record low is becoming less likely but given how diffused the ice pack is on the Pacific side then 2nd lowest is certainly possible.
  8. Admittedly there might be some fohen affect from Greenland but 'heat'? Come on BFTV, let's not mistake higher than average upper air temperatures and mistake them for potential high temperatures at ice levels. We are hardly talking about plus 10C upper air temperatures with 30C Alaskan or Siberian heat hitting the basin here. The southerly flow through fram Stright interests me more, it's persistent and should be a good thing for the ice HOWEVER given the situation to the NE of Greenland and the Atlantic edge being so far north, is it starting to become a double edge sword type of situation where it could have a negative impact on the ice? In general the outlook looks fairly uneventful for the ice but given the diffused ice near the Chukchi and what happened so much far this year then never rule anything out.
  9. I think the uncertainty regarding how high temperatures may go is down tto how much cloud cover there will be from storms/PPN. I think the storm risk definately increases for next week that is for sure. Hot day on Friday and probably Saturday(although maybe on a smaller scale) then turninf cooler Sunday with hotting up again next week if the flow goes more SE'ly again.
  10. The numbers suggests too me the CAB numbers must be pretty low if not record lows as the Beaufort sea is probably keeping the volume numbers up. Just how much Beaufort ice will survive between now and September? I If quite a large amount survives this may be better news for next year's melt season as that ice will likely to transfer across towards the Chukchi and Siberian seas during the winter months but I suspect it is will most likely be an arm of ice that has compacted against the CAA that will survive and most of it will be gone by September. Still lowest on record also, 2012 and 2019 do drop fast in the coming days but I thought we be a little closer to the pack by now, maybe the SSTS are doing the more damage now?
  11. One theory I do have why in these short blasts of heat, we can get impressive temperatures and it is down to the Atlantic imo. Atlantic lows do seem stronger in summer than they used to be so like yesterday if you got a strong ish low pressure system then more wind is created at the higher and lower levels of the atmosphere therefore heat travels further northwards. Its why if 40C does get breeched, it probably be a 1 or more likely 2 day quick blast rather than a blocking high set up. Of course climate change does mean the upper and lower air temperatures are warmer and despite what one poster is saying, the trends are only going up.
  12. I think the ice was on its way to be diffused even before the storm but no doubt it has left its mark. Whilst the ice is diffused, its not super thin so coupled with the slacker and somewhat cooler weather conditions, I be surprised if we see flash melting. I think the PIOMAS volume will be at least near record lows but because the thicker Beaufort ice is still there(albeit diffused) even if its record lows it probably won't be too far away from 2nd place. I suspect it probably be around 2nd or 3rd lowest for now though.
  13. I think it depends on where its measured from though. I think some of the DMI temperature is measured over the open water of the Barants sea which is above average in SSTS and above average in air temps. Coupled that with a southerly flow then this is the reason we are seeing the spike. Sadly its yet another sign of climate change as the set up is not unusual, its the temperatures. That said though, what's worse, having above average temps over the pole or having above average temperatures on the Pacific side of the basin because if that was the case, the DMI temp will be nearer the average mark. Interesting developments across the Beaufort sea today. Shows nicely on worldview once the clouds clear, the ice underneath may not be all that pretty. Going to be interesting how the diffused ice reacts from here. Might be similar to 2018 where parts of the Beaufort sea rapidly melted away?
  14. Gone down to 969MB that low apparently, so perhaps one of the strongest storms in July on record? Be interesting once the clouds clear what it's left in its wake. Area is starting to drop so coupled with extent slowing down, the ice pack is getting less compact. No real surprises as the weather favours ice spread and the interior of the ice pack is not all that thick either. Coupled with the Beaufort getting more dispersed then area Wass bound to go down and it is lowest on record now also to boot. Looking at the outlook, in normal circumstances you would say the outlooks would favour sea ice but given whats happened so far this year, then who knows. Still continued to be interested on the Atlantic side of the basin, the warmth is making its presence felt there for sure.
  15. Deforestation can be controlled by us humans but you can't stop the climate, not off realistically we gone past the tipping point of climate change. Im still not too convinced we will beat 2012 but we may not be too far from it though. The Atlantic side is warming up quite a bit and we got the deep low for the next 36 to 48 hours. In theory the weather conditions should be largely favourable for sea ice but because the Atlantic basin has been so warm recently, even a reverse dipole could be bad for the ice this year.
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