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Geordiesnow

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  1. VAR controversy yet AGAIN!!! This time In the Arsenal/Villa game. When is the VAR going to tell the referee too look at the monitor and make his own judgement! That is yet another case where a subjective call should be decided by the referee yet the VAR allows the original decision to stand despite it being a strong case for a penelty. The VAR does not have to overrule the ref, he just has to tell him to take another look at it via a monitor. That is the way forward and how VAR is used elsewhere unless it's a proper clear and obvious error then VAR should definately overrule the referee. I watched highlights of the Lecce vs Napoli game on YouTube and the ball hit the Lecce defender on the arm and the VAR there told the referee to go and have a look via the monitor and then he gave the penelty to Napoli. Got to admit I thought it was harsh as it looked far too close to make it deliberate handball but the point is, the referee made the final decision, NOT VAR. I just can't get my head around why Mike Riley and the PGMOL choose to go down this route because its making a mockery of VAR really. And it also annoys me when pundits say VAR should overrule the referee on decisions like that, VAR should not overrule the referee, Unless it's so clear and obvious that you don't need to send the ref to a monitor.
  2. Small increase today and given the weather set ups, I think it favours more in the way of increases so I'll be surprised if it stays below 4 million for long. It's been a funny old melt season and the headline is definately the fact extent fell below 4 million yet area remained a fair bit above 2016 so clearly the CAB has been a bit more compact compared than then. Even the CAB in 2017 looked more diffused than this year but what we seen this year was a very quick melt across the Pacific side of the basin hence it helped extent to go as low as it did. I also notice on Zack Labe temperature charts that August was the warmest on record which surprises me as the 2nd half of August looked cooler due to a strong storm which helped to move the extent line away from 2012. I don't think the first part of August was that exceptional either, maybe it is down to the warm SSTS? Some hints from the GFS in particular that this high pressure may break down but still too far out. What is more interesting is the forecast through fram, very strong southerly winds are forecast so fram export should be low I would of thought?
  3. Indeed, a similar sort of set up even just 10 years ago probably would not of resulted in such losses and such a retreat on the Atlantic edge. I'm sure it's not all melt and some of it will be compaction but it does result in extent losses and the headline of this season is we dipped below 4 million this year and extent standsn around 3.96 million. The only thing I will say because the extent losses has virtually occurred on the Atlantic side, does the recent losses make next year more vulnable for the 2020 season than say if extent stayed around 4.05-4.15 million in extent? I shall think not but the slow regrowth might though, there is a alot of warmth in those SSTS and even though the set up is pretty good to cool down those SSTS(because of high pressure) it is so easy these days we could end up with a October similar to 2016 and 2018 and end up with very low FDD(Freezing degree days).
  4. Arctic sea ice will officially have the 2nd lowest at minimum on record as we just squeeked past 2016 on todays update. Will it get below 4 million, find out tomorrow, I think it will as I am struggling to see where refreeze will occur at the moment as there is barely any PV to speak of at the moment up there. Models(especially the ECM) keep on wanting to develop cold troughing around the Arctic High but the models are wanting to go cold too quickly and in reality this is not the case, probably because of the warm SSTS up there although they are gradually cooling down. The reason why extent has dropped off so sharply for the time of year is down to Atlantification, as soon as the winds turn any direction southerly, it's bye bye to the ice around Svalbard. It might make a return though as the winds are set to switch to a more northerly direction but we shall see. Just to show how things have changed, this set up of an Arctic high in situ over the basin should not lead to such extent drops in September and any troughing around the high would no doubt have colder air wrapped around it making it in theory a favourable set up. Certainly not the case this year. Let's just hope we don't get a big ridging high heading into the Pacific basin like we did at the start of October 2018 then that would be the iceing on the cake!
  5. I think the ice just to the north of the Canadian Arciphello and Greenland and see how it looks alot thinner than just 10 years ago even just shows how much the ice pack in general has changed, even if the extent of the ice has somewhat been a little more stable although definately no recovery as this year shows. High pressure is the prefer weather type even during winter as it usually means less ice leaving the fram Stright for example and it tends to help more to thicken the ice up on the Siberian side of the basin more. High pressure via a ridge from lower latitudes is never good(for the ice but obviously good for snow enthusiasts) as it promotes WAA and much warmer temperatures than a high in situ over the basin. Disagree slightly that the high pressure looks short lived, most runs has it sticking around for a while, hopefully the troughing around it can help cool the Arctic down and of course the SSTS!
  6. And you can blame that for the fact that Riley did not want his refs to go to the monitors for the on field ref to have a final say on his decision. I've no doubt the yellow for Tielemens would of been overturned by the referee if he had a 2nd look at it, that is the what the screen is there for! Although it benefitted my team, the Lescelles/Kane pen incident should of been reviewed by the monitor as it is a subjective call and it is those ones that should be encouraged by the on field ref to look at, not for the VAR to decide otherwise the man in the middle is not properly refereeing the game.
  7. Double post but just to update on the latest situation on Arctic sea ice extent. Extent has dropped quite a bit the last few days(for the time of year) and we are almost going to pass the 2016 minimum and there's a chance we may pass the 2007 minimum also. I'm not too sure if the numbers really matters too much but it shows it ain't over till its over. Been a really poor year for sea ice and I suspect Autumn is not going to look any better either with so much heat in the oceans up there. Ironically models are suggesting a high pressure cell around the pole with some troughing around it with in theory should be the best set up for refreeze but you just never know this year. The PV yet again is struggling to form and this should be the norm if we get a BOE especially.
  8. Very good blog post there, for me what is telling about this melting season is just how quick the ice melted in the ESS during July after the exceptional warmth during June despite weather patterns changing to something more favourable at times in July which showed how there was less fast ice and how the ice must of been thinner than other years in this region. Refreeze is going to be slow, I'll be shocked if its not, just look what happened last year and just how long it took for the Laptev to freeze over last year and this year does not have any tongue of ice to extend towards the ESS to stop any warm currents heading into the laptev so we could see something exceptional this Autumn. Hopefully we won't though! 2012 had lower extent but in general the ice was slower to melt in some pacific regions therefore cooler SSTS hence the very sharp refreeze as a result.
  9. I think it's a piece of fast ice(ice stuck to land) from the winter which has remained there all summer. Fast ice tends to be more resilient to melt than normal ice and indeed in general the ice pack has been stuck to the Svalbard islands all summer with retreat only happening in the last 1 to 2 weeks. Southerly winds with mild air is set to strike this area which has not been the case this summer so that patch of ice may not last for much longer sadly.
  10. Looks like sea ice extent will end up around 4th lowest I would say given the area numbers and the upcoming forecast, not painting the full picture of just how quick ice retreated in the Pacific regions this year and saved really from being closer to 2012 by very favourable conditions during the 2nd part of August. I think what this year has shown across the ESS is if you get a very warm couple of weeks, the pre conditioning will be so great that the ice will go very quickly like it did during July despite less phonominal weather conditions. The ice in the Beaufort is much more mobile now that persistent winds from the landmass will blow the ice away leaving a huge area of open water even in the 2nd half of May. The Beaufort gyre does help with this even more but even so, it's a sign of the changes in the basin. Volume numbers show we are only above 2012 which given extent is quite a bit higher is really telling I feel and the ice to the north of the Canadian Arpichello is much broken and mobile so whilst extent numbers may look similar to some years, the Arctic basin ice is definately changing. The question I would ask though, do we have enough time to melt all the ice to produce a BOE in each season?
  11. I think as per ever the question will be once the high ridges in, just how long will it hang on for, hopefully we get a nice strong block established as we often can get in September. Let's save the wetter, cooler weather until the 2nd part of October onwards!
  12. Has it though? Melt has been pretty rapid all Spring and summer with a very large opening in the Beaufort very early on in the season along with the Bering Stright. The ESS also melted very quickly thanks to an exceptionally warm June there so all in all, don't let the slowing down and the fact we are not reaching record lows cover up on what this melt season has been like. Extent will finish either 2nd lowest or 4th lowest, will we go under 4 million? There's a receding chance of that and we are losing the reverse dipole and replacing with almost a dipole type pattern so we may see some compaction and more in the way of extent dros. Can't wait for refreeze because there is alot of warm SSTS around! Could see a slow refreeze this year.
  13. I got to say it was more or less a stonewall penelty and we got away with one for sure but the one in the city game is even worse its bordering on embarracment. This is all Mike Rileys fault though, such an incompetant ref and a incompetant boss of the PGMOL, he SHOULD encourage his referees to look at the monitors just like they do in other leagues especially when it's on those more marginal calls of penelties and red cards and it would show the referee is in charge and NOT VAR yet it looks like VAR is in control. If Michael Oliver and Mike Dean both went to the monitor and still decided its not a penelty then fair enough but I bet it's more likely they would give penelties for those incidents. The one in the Bournmouth game is so clear the VAR should of overruled the ref and award a penelty, no need to look at a monitor for that one! As for looking at the monitor slows the game down nonsense, time gets added on in the end and if players have genuine injuries, should we drag them off the pitch right away so we don't slow the game down? Come on, common sense is needed, most games a ref won't need to look back at the monitor anyways but if we want right decisions then they should be encouraged to have a look if there is a bit of doubt.
  14. I do think the affects of wildfires and sea ice is minimal at best, the Arctic is generally quite dry so surely most of the soot from the fires would remain in the atmosphere and even in any rainfall, I doubt much soot would fall as the smoke will bee above cloud level? On the subject of melt, more signs we are slowing down now, at least in terms of area as its getting quite cold up there for the time of year in parts of the basin. We won't be breaking any records this year unless something extreme occurs and that is definately not in the forecast so I still say 2nd place is looking likely because of the momentum during the summer and the very high SSTS as a result. Let's just be grateful we are seeing the total opposite of the of August 2016 when that extraordinary dipole occurred which helped push true open water quite far northwards and the ice around the pole was much more diffused than it is this year.
  15. I get your point but I don't think this year's pack is as spread out as say it was in 2016 and 2017 for example, it looks smaller and more compact although in recent days and weeks, the CAB has looked a bit more diffused especially towards the Laptev. What is interesting about this year is the affects that the June heatwave in the ESS had on the ice in general and how the ESS 'arm' is non existant this year and how far the ice pack has retreated north on the Russian side in general. I mentioned in my last post about a pattern change to stormier conditions and this is going to be the case now with a fairly deep low coming in from the Canadian Archipelago, this will send cold air through the pole and towards the pacific side of the basin and in theory should be favourable for sea ice and hopefully starts to refreeze any small areas of open water in the CAB. One interesting aspects of the winds is too see how the ice attached to the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland will react to it but this is a much better pattern for the Ice than that really strong dipole we saw at the back end of August in 2016. I just hope the cold PV can maintain itself over the basin and not get get punctured by a ridge of high pressure! Nevertheless the trend is still clear and even though we probably won't get a record low, the trend line has been low all summer and I still think an extent of just under 4 million is quite likely which is newsworthy enough. And again it begs the question, just what on earth the ice would look like if we did get a 2007 style summer. This summer has been more high pressure dominated but imo, it was only really the ESS that got hammered with such a pattern, conditions over the CAB and Beaufort has been calmer and not particularly stormy either(Don't recall any major deep low pressure systems). July was more cooler at times before the first part of August was dominated by more high pressure over the ESS and Laptev so really it was a mixed bag and we are quite a bit below 2007 with very warm SSTS too boot, not good signs sadly.
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