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Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

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  1. North west regional discussion

    Could be quite a realistic chart in fairness as the air will be very dry as it crosses the mountains therefore taking away any moisture. The snow potential for this region looks poor because of the rain shadow affect, we are relying on troughs to come in to bring snowfall.
  2. North west regional discussion

    I would take it with a pinch of salt to be fair at this range but use it as a guide in respect the North East will get hammered whilst we get far less and it's more patchy from place to place.
  3. North west regional discussion

    It' a public health England cold health warning hence only England has got the amber colours on that chart. I be shocked if it does not upgrade to a red warning because the wind chill from this will be very serious indeed.
  4. North west regional discussion

    Selective memory is certainly possible to be fair, lots of people know that the 70s and 80s were snowy periods but can't always pick out the years of when the hardest snowfall was, all you mostly hear is Jan 87 and Dec 81. That said, I be surprised if showers did make it across the Pennines it be troughs and fronts that will more likely to hit they west coast, one to watch of course.
  5. I actually wonder if that is daytime convection building up because of the cold air overhead with now strong sunshine because by the 1:00 m charts, any PPN isore confined to eastern areas? GFS is perfect in terms of the angle of the cold unstable airflow, UKMO is almost there, much better than this time yesterday.
  6. You could see the slight difference on the GFS and UKMO 96 hour chart in the angle of the flow so I'm not surprised its a bit further southwards but still very cold though with snow showers more widely from Northern England downwards.
  7. If I was still living in the north east I would start to feel a little excited but still cautious because of just how close the centre of the high could get to the British isles which make quite a different centre between convective snow and something more drier. I'll actually be back on Tyneside from the 12th of March, just wish I booked my holiday for next week instead! However be interesting to read this thread if a convective easterly does indeed arrive.
  8. North west regional discussion

    I've no doubt that the hills to the East will stop most if not all of the showers heading this way but troughs are different as the cloud height should be higher and the PPN more organised. Also IF it's going to be a true convective easterly then you will see how the North Sea can produce proper heavy snow showers and frequent at the same time! Unlike the infamous Irish Sea with its small speckle showers although in fairness up here we did see some beefy snow showers from the last cold spell which included the blob that directly hit us but frequency of such showers was s bit dissapointing and shower activity across the region was fairly poor I recalled.
  9. Pleased too see the UKMO has improved on its drier easterly output that it shown yesterday but despite this morning runs, I still can't say with full on certainty we will see a full on convective easterly just yet, especially the further North you are. It does seem like the main bulk will still head into France but hopefully the ripple affect as shown by the ECM in particular comes into play. No doubt it will turn quite cold for the time of year with the coldest air across southern and eastern areas, it's just will we get enough instability to produce the sunshine and snow shower set up?
  10. Keep reading alot of talk that the models are not very good at picking up sea convection but that is not true, at least as far as polar westerlies are concerned and from general experience of model watching. What the models do struggle with is how far inland any convection goes and of course troughs don't usually get picked up nearer the time. I think some are getting mislead in thinking cold uppers and warm sea temps mean snow shower machine but it does not work like that at all. Yesterday runs had everything further northwards therefore the instability is further northwards but if the scandi high gets too close to Scotland with its higher thicknesses and pressure then the atmosphere gets capped and you get grey stratuscumulus cloud with very limited convection despite upper air temps of -10. That is why some rightly are being cautious hence their dissapointment at the ECM run. The pattern does indicate the further north you are the less room for error there is at least initially. Still time for variations but we dont want that high to get to close as it heads westwards out of Scandinavia.
  11. Future runs could easily have the cold coming in quicker, all depends if the flow gets slacker or not really and of course initial positioning of the cold thrust. For me I'll be happy aslong as we don't see any trends of the cold heading into France and Spain, the cold is coming, just how cold it will get and how unstable the air gets are the big questions at the moment.
  12. Think it depends on your point of view tbh. For most I'm sure aslong as there is enough instability to create convective showers then who cares if its -10 uppers or -15 uppers aslong as its snowing. Obviously for those who want too see that magical -15 hitting then it may take a while and it might not at all. Again what we seeing is just another variation and the overall trend is clear that cold air will be heading our way, the questions will be how quick it will arrive and will it arrive with enough instability to create convective showers.
  13. Think some may argue that the coldest uppers get delayed however the -12hpa does come in before a slight mixing out because of that shallow low and shortwave but all that said, another very cold run indeed. Details will still change and it will get much colder, the question will be how much instability will there be? Sadly that is something we won't know for a while yet.
  14. Got to say, i rather the cleaner versions of the GFS and UKMO runs as that makes more sure we got enough cold embedded in before any shortwaves and kinks in the flow starts to become embedded and make the gs alot more complicated.
  15. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    Looks like after constant southerly winds from the Pacific, things are set to cool down somewhat in the bering straight but perhaps not the bering sea itself but what we are seeing there at the moment is unprecedented and we should not see open water in the bering straightuntil at least May, we got huge amount of open water right now, will the upcoming change of wind direction make much difference? Unlike a region like the kara sea for example this early melting could have major implications on the sea ice in the basin itself, it really is one to watch and see and hope it can recover between now and until the end of the melt season.