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Geordiesnow

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Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

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  1. Hurricane Irma

    If its the one I seen, then I'm sure he was responding to the facts that the GFS has been forecasting the hurricane to have a central pressure of 880MB and said this was not possible/very unlikely to happen and its showing this because of the model upgrade in July which is showing a bias towards over strengthening storm systems. So I don't think he said it can't get close to 900MB, more that its very unlikely to get as close as the GFS is predicting.
  2. Premier League Discussion

    So i guess you think Sterlings 2nd yellow was harsh then? Even though the laws of the game suggests the ref was right to produce a 2nd yellow. Nothing to do with wanting to be centre of attention, going into the crowd imo is right to produce a yellow card and is not ridiculous like the taking your shirt off which is baffling why thats not allowed. Could only watch the highlights of our game but i was impressed with our build up play, quite creative and deserved the 3-0 win, just pleased and relieved we finally won but now its all eyes on whether Bilic keeps his job or not as no doubt Rafa would be tempted by West Ham and fat Mike would be happy to let him go as he aint liking the fact hes not a manager you can mess with
  3. From my understanding high pressure at this time of year is not all that bad of a thing and can actually be a more positive for sea ice as clear skies at night can help to let heat from the ocean to escape into the atmosphere(rather than being trapped by cloud) and the sun not being strong enough to really heat the SST's and melt the ice. High pressure which brings strong southerly winds and heat from the continents are by far the worst case scenario but to me this high does not really does that and for the most part there is coldish air trapped underneath especially towards Beaufort. Be interesting what the final orientation of the high will be as the models are flipping a bit between whether the high ends up near Beaufort which will create a dipole or end up nearer Laptev and creating a reverse dipole - today's runs has suggested the latter which will be interesting as that could slow down extent again but potentially creating quite strong southerly winds towards the Atlantic edge which has retreated a bit lately despite the cold air temps. Either way, it seems the Arctic has dodged the bullet this year but I still dread to think what another 07/11 type of summer would bring with the ice the way it is.
  4. There was a storm over the Beaufort which 'flashed' a lot of ice out from the 29th to the 30th on the concentration images but this is now weakening and moving towards the CAB and the models have been hinting at least one more deep low could hit in a similar area.sometime in the future although there has been to much variation to place much faith in this. Where will this year end up? If indeed the ice is more compact this year and it seems to be to me compared to 2016 then if conditions are right for the ice to spread out then the extent line could really slow down towards the end of the month but if the compaction continues then extent will keep on going down and will probably finish 2nd lowest as the ice does look pretty thin in parts especially towards Laptev where a hole has now developed despite weather conditions being cold there lately. August is an interesting month as the shape of the ice pack changes quite dramatically during the month so its going to be interesting just how far the ice continues to retreat on the Pacific side of the Arctic, there is going to be no 'arm' of ice stretching out to the lower latitudes so I imagine the shape of the ice will be fairly rounded as it is now come September Either way, as I said in my last post, this season is confirming more and more on the fear if we get a high pressure dominated summer like 2007/11 then we could be looking at an ice free pole and almost an ice free Arctic.
  5. Suspect its more because the interest in Arctic ice on this forum is fairly low in all fairness. Extent is 5th lowest at the moment but it seems this year will head towards the 2007/2012/2015/16 type of years as the pack does look more vulnable to melting now than it did earlier in the melt season with holes popping up on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in particular whilst the Pacific side continues to slowly but surely gets melted away especially the ice near the East Siberian Sea - think its nearly fair to say there won't be a tongue of ice sticking out towards that region this year! However in general, the pack seemed to be more compact this year than last year which makes sence as May and June have been largely dominated by winds compacting the pack but this has reduced the extent on the pacific side to quite low levels, only the Beaufort sea has seen ice starting to spread out during this melt season which can also be a bad thing for the ice also. The models did hinted at cold and slack conditions, the slack conditions did not last as long as first thought and typically by the time the air did try and get cold enough, the winds started to pick up again and looks like we are heading for a brief dipole before it gets cut off by a medium strength low pressure system(which seemingly does have some cold air mixed in). What happens after that seems less clear cut but hints do seem to suggest an intense low could well be possible coupled with high pressure over Beaufort which will produce a strong dipole but of course that may not actually happen. I think to sum up my thoughts at the moment is that things could be a lot worse than they are given the dire volume we had during Spring and the low thicknesses but the Arctic is far from being out of the woods as far as this year is concerned and I do suspect we will get quite low again this year just purely on the ice thickness alone, most people seem to be predicting 2nd lowest and I would agree on that, perhaps being closer to 2012 than 2016. Also to note, this has not been a 2007 year type summer which GW has for a few years predicted might of happened this year based on his 10 year cycle theory but the evidence is just there that if we do get a 2007/11 type summer then we would more than likely see an ice free pole and almost an ice free Arctic.
  6. Saw 4 quite impressive pink CG lightning strikes in about a 10 min period. Unfortunately the rain was a bit of a none event but there was a noticeable wind increase. Nice little surprise though nonetheless.
  7. I'm surprised you got nothing as another member reported, there was a decent storm heading northwards at about 4:30 and I don't think your location is all that far away, maybe it fizzled out or headed to far eastwards? As for here, looks like that might be it, kind of feel you always wanted more but appreciate what I did get when you see how other areas completely missed out. As ever with storms, its the luck of the draw really, some places will get them, others won't.
  8. Just had a decent 15 min storm passing through here, was strange at one point because about 5 mins into the storm, the skies turned very dark with what looked like low cloud and it was heading in an easterly direction, maybe a funnel cloud was trying to form? either way it quickly went and the lightning was frequent and spectacular.
  9. Saw the storm you had previously heading Northwards, could not see a lot of lightning from my position but the core looked impressive so no doubt there would of been torrential rain underneath it. More rumbles around here now with some rain.
  10. Bit dissapointing none of the storms from the South actually traveled northwards as it would of been nice too see a good old night time storm but it will be interesting too see how that cluster of rain/storms develops from Wales during this afternoon, some forecasts seem promising but we had this many times before only for it to not turn out how we would expect it.
  11. Well the 3 days of substantial of very warm air hitting the Pacific side of the Arctic is more or less over now as the reverse dipole takes shape but not without causing quite a lot of ice melt over the East Siberian/Chuckchi seas and the net result has been 3 consecutive century breaks in a row - not terribly unusual for July but goes to show, any real heat hitting this ice pack is causing substantial ice melt. With the reverse dipole kicking in now and the weather forecast seem to be suggesting a fairly slack looking set up coming, extent figures could start to slow down somewhat, looks similar to the 2nd half of July 2014 but as it stands, not as cold in terms of upper air temps at least but if the favourable set ups last a good while then the ice pack has got a chance of not ending up too low but we shall see. One thing to note is the definate trend of the Kara sea having a long heatwave which is already ramping up the SST's and the Atlantic side recieving warm southerlies although the strength at this stage is fairly slack but some retreat on the Atlantic side looks likely, one to watch for sure.
  12. Well this thin ice towards the Pacific side of the Arctic will have an interesting 72 hours or so as we get a very warm plume heading in from the Pacific coupled with no doubt quite sunny skies to boot, we saw in 2015(around this time of year) the dramatic effects this had on the ice although thankfully it is not quite as severe and long lasting as it was back then as the pattern is forecast to break down quickly by low pressure over the CAB although the models kind of disagree on what happens next, most GFS runs had the low deepening but not one Euro run has backed this and some sort of reverse dipole looks the most likely and it will be interesting to observe what happens to the ice edge over Barents if the forecast Southerlies come to fruition as it looks a fairly potent southerly in store. I think its fair to say whilst things do seem to be on a knife edge, we could be looking at a far worse situation when we saw those volume figures back in Spring and it is interesting what the final shape and extent of the ice will be come September.
  13. Well last year shown quite nicely how on paper more favourable looking set ups still made us 2nd lowest on record but traditionally reverse di-poles would tend to favour retaining ice and its something I rather see than a true dipole at this time of year. I'm not too sure about this "warm ice" and "cold ice" theory but the ice is thinner this year and for me its ice thickness that will no doubt play a major role on where we will end up by the end of this melt season. The pacific side of the Arctic has been melting quite rapidly this year which is no surprise as weather patterns have favoured this but it has not exactly been a 2007/2011 style set up either where high pressure and warmth were quite dominant in those melt seasons.
  14. Interesting melt season thus far I got to say, ice extent across the pacific side looks very similar to 2007 but the CAB compared to 2016 from my observations looks more concentrated this year compared to last year and last year did see open water entering not too far away from the pole and a heavily fragmented CAB so there is maybe a case that this year we may even finish above 2016 despite so far weather conditions in general has been a bit more favourable for ice melt? Looking ahead, it does look like high pressure will dominate the Pacific side and there are hints we may see a ridge entering from the Pacific to join up with the high in the Arctic which will cause strong southerly winds and bring in a lot of warm air again. As ever, its not always that plain sailing as this afternoon's GFS 12Z run shows which would be more favourable for the ice.
  15. The potential is certainly there as a cold low starts to mix in with a heat dome that is forecast over Siberia, these temperature contrasts certainly have the potential to produce a deep depression but even if it doen not rapidly deepen then all the models are trending a strong dipole like formation in the Chuckchi sea with pressure being high over Beaufort and much lower over Laptev, how long that lasts for is another matter but very strong winds will no doubt push that ice edge further Northwards yet again. So potentially some interesting times ahead and even in the here and now, it will be interesting what this fairly deep low will do to the ice right now, is the air cold enough and the low not too deep enough not to cause damage to the ice or not?
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