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Geordiesnow

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Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

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  1. Geordiesnow

    UEFA Champions League

    No doubt people will go on and on about the performance but who cares, they deserved to win and they got every chance of doing well in this tornement.
  2. Don't really see the blocking there myself really, the Arctic high will only come into play if it can squeeze further Southwards and ideally be more of a sausage type shape high like this morning's ECM. And even then if its too far North then it may not have much influence on our weather. At the moment, any cold air will come from after any low pressures swing through, won't rule out some sort of Northerly/NW'ly airflow if we get any heights building in the Atlantic although nothing is likely to be sustained. Speaking of lows, then Wednesday is still potentially a very disruptive day weather wise, lots of uncertainty though to nail down the details but even the UKMO is kind of interested in a deep low so the potential is definately there.
  3. Going to be the usual uncertainty with this low as its origin is in the tropics in the Atlantic and how it deepens and its final position will be down to the jet stream and the mixing with that tropical air and the colder air. Either way, the potential for Wednesday to be a disruptive day is certainly there and the next named storm could be making the headlines soon, more runs are needed to firm the details up.
  4. A signal which probably will be gone by the next run and what this morning's run did not show. It would be great too see an Arctic high trying to come into play but the reality is, its not going to affect our weather anytime soon. Of course any background signals down the line may start to show up in the output but it needs to be more consistent for it to be an interest.
  5. Potentially a very strong storm to come next week perhaps with both the ECM and the UKMO going for a fairly deep depression whereas the GFS surprisingly looks alot more modest in comparison. If you can't have cold/snow then some stormy weather will certainly be welcomed by me. As for cold, I think the best chance will be anything from the NW as the lows head through the UK but the jet orientation suggests even this does not look too likely in anything too noteworthy.
  6. Yep more signs we could see an Atlantic Influence although the process could be a bit of a slow one with colder air trying to hang on. It has felt like it was not meant to be for the UK at the moment, the air was never really forecast to get significantly colder but im sure there will be other opportunties in the next 12 to 14 weeks ahead.
  7. As you alluded too in days gone by, I think its the west based NAO that is the issue, it is traditionally the most annoying pattern for cold lovers because you have blocking but in the wrong places. This time, we do have blocking that favours us but its only to an extent, its another run that does develop a large Atlantic low, whether it be like that in the days to come remains to be seen. As ever, by this time tomorrow we could be looking at totally different charts.
  8. I remember Atlantic252 better covers his eyes at that chart because if we are talking about the actual weather, then that is vile chart of gale force easterly winds and heavy rain! I'll be prepared to sacrafice any bad weather if it means we get the goods though. Can the 18Z deliver on that?
  9. To be fair you can say that about many members on that analogy when the cold tinted specs are worn when you see constant speculation like theres definately going to be significant upgrades etc when infact, not one person has any clue what the next set of runs will definately be especially in battleground/blocking set ups like this. Besides my reading on the chart is as of follows, the deeper secondary low that forms will roll along the developing ridging Azores high and get close to the UK, it certainly looks like that when you look at the flow of the isobars and how secondary lows behave. I might be wrong and to be honest, its all fairly irrelevant because the next UKMO run could show something completely different.
  10. The rounded low has indeed remained large on the UKMO and has now developed a secondary low, you would suspect it would follow the ECM basing on that chart but probably too hard to tell from that chart.
  11. Not got a clue and nor has anyone else in this thread, I see an easterly contiuing for the timebeing but the threat of the Atlantic coming in eventually is certainly there but because its still 168 hours away at least then its most certainly subject to change in terms of timings and it may not even come in at all and we stay in a blocked pattern?
  12. The problem we have is the forecast west based NAO, it just makes any cold weather being sustained much more harder unfortunately. All that said though, the first 168 hours on the ECM is fairly chilly so not really a shocker in my eyes. But its another run which shows the Atlantic could start making a return eventually.
  13. ECM is showing milder air trying to edge in around 168 hours, so there is definately some trends on the Atlantic trying to break down this blocking pattern. Whether it does or not is still open to alot of doubt but you certainly can't dismiss it because the models are certainly edging towards that solution and is a lot more likely than an Arctic NE'ly occuring at this stage.
  14. Upstream the UKMO looks okay but ill be interested too see what it does at 168 hours with the more rounded low. Either way a return to Atlantic weather is by no means a formality just yet and the easterly flow is still here for the foreseeable future.
  15. That ice you see there is just coastal ice from winds blowing from the cold landmass, nothing unusual about that anywhere really. If your on about that small blob with the F inside it then it could be just a small patch of colder water that has freezed up a bit quicker? I don't think there is anything too unusual about that really.
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