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Geordiesnow

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Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

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  1. well that is largely our climate for wintsr, that is the normal weather pattern for winter so not sure what that moan is all about. All that said blocking can and do occur and sometimes it runs favourably and sometimes its blocked but much drier. Problem with next week, we have a blocking high but in the worse position for us in terms of wanting any type of winter weathe really as it will turn progressively milder and any frost and fog will be very limited due to cloud cover and increasing winds.
  2. I see the fantasists are out in force once again(well they have been since December), same old posters also. Back to reality and apart from the brief fairly non wintry Northerly coming up, the trend does seem to be one of turning milder again but perhaps more obviously, it be drier, especially the further South and East you are. The set up does seem to remind me to a certain extent of Feb 2008 where we got very mild pleasent days but cold frosty nights, I don't think the high is quite in the right position for that as I suspect there be too much cloud cover but one thing for sure, no horrible cold rainy days and definately no snow on the horizon!
  3. The real sting in the tail from this low does occur overnight and into the morning but nevertheless, winds should still increase somewhat this evening and no doubt disruption will occur. Would not rule out somewhere getting a 90mph gust!
  4. Just to add a bit better news for the ice is that PIOMAS has updated its ice volume and January was a decent month for ice volume growth and ice volume is around 7th lowest with 2014 and 2015 being higher in the dataset. Either way, its alot higher than 2017 and even 2018. Will be interesting how the volume reacts to this month because its a right old mix bag at the moment with huge warmth in the Beaufort but much colder conditions over the pole and the Siberian side of the basin which looks like it will transfer towards the Chukchi sea eventually. Also interesting to note this year it seems the thicker ice is more over the Beaufort Sea and the anamolies over Siberia are not as high as last year where there was lots of compaction due to winds. Also some 2+ year ice has moved from the Beaufort through the Beaufort Gyre and into the Chuckchi which will create that "babies arm"(as Grey wolf would call it) of thicker ice which in theory should help the CAB but more vulnable to melt. Should be an interesting melt season!
  5. I don't think we have passed a point on the pacific side of the Arctic as the Bering sea ice will always be influenced by wind direction although traditionally ridge patterns into the Bering sea should be a rare event although last winter it was quite a common occurance, this year there has not been many ridges until now and it really is affecting the ice in the Bering Sea Meanwhile the open water to the North of Svalbard could well be a game changer, not once has the true ice edge hit svalbard since the summer of 2017 and just in a matter of 10-14 days how the ice has retreated and edged quite far North suggests some sort of ocean current is at play here. Is this going to be a permanent thing going forward? Either way, it can't be good for the sea ice and as I said, another extreme Atlantification event for the summer looks a real possibility.
  6. How this deep low is not yet named by the UK Met office when its only 24 hours away is beyond me, its been in the forecast for a few days of a deep low hitting widely across the UK, yes of course where the strongest winds will be is still a bit uncertain as the models toy where the real pinch in the isobars is going to occur but there should of been more warnings out on the TV by now and it is yet another sham in respect of this storm naming business when in theory its a good idea to name these really deep lows. In my eyes, it looks like the strongest of the winds on Friday will be across coastal western areas but inland parts of Northern Ireland and Ireland could well see severe gales, and then Saturday morning looks like there could be severe gales widely across Northern England and Southern Scotland. I would not be surprised too see gusts of upto 80mph to the east of high ground as the winds 'bounces' over the Pennines.
  7. ECM shows what could happen if the Azores high ridges that further North and the angle of the WAA is more northwards rather than NE'wards like both the GFS and UKMO are showing. In fairness though, all models are showing a similar pattern but as you expect, the differences become more apparant later on in the forecast period. One thing for sure, it does look like for next week, high pressure will try and nose in from the Azores but just how much influence will it have over the UK. I think we do have to bear in mind the ECM tends to show more blocking situations in general than other models but its evolution looks plausible too me. Do hope the ECM is right as that would give the brightest/sunniest conditions, at least initially after the Northerly blast on Sunday but the set up for later on in the week where all the coldest uppers are there could actually be an anticyclonic gloom set up, it is definately NOT a sunshine and snow shower set up as the wind flow is a SE'ly and thicknesses are way too high so the air is very stable. May see some snow grains though if your lucky.
  8. What easterly? There is really no sign of any easterly appearing in the models at all, the PV is simply too strong to allow any meaningful height rises to occur over Scandinavia to be maintained for an easterly flow to develop at this stage. What we may see is as high pressure tries to make an influence on the UK weather, it will orientate in such a way we get a Southerly/SSE'ly flow which will limit upper air temperatures and more definately limit ground temperatures and we may get a quiet settled period with overnight frosts. Some runs do this but the vast majority suggests a more SW'ly flow which will bring a lot more cloud cover and eventually widespread double figure temperatures. That said, we do have a brief cold shot for the 2nd part of the weekend and Monday morning could dawn on a cold frosty note for some but if anyone is looking for a reliable snowy set up, then forget it because the PV over the pole is just simply too strong and no models is suggesting we are going to head down that sort of route anytime soon. I think one of the reasons why any background signals may not of worked favourably for cold weather is because the PV over the Arctic has been stronger this year than in previous years, its a catch 22 really because if you do break that PV into smaller parts then the chances for severe cold does increase if it ends up in the right place however a stronger PV traditionally is harder to break down despite more favourable background signals for cold.
  9. Well a good spell of windy weather coming up, potentially severe and disuptive for some, starting tomorrow morning which sort of came up unexpected in the short term with a quick blast of potentially severe gales for Eastern England, this does not last long at all though but with the timing of when the strongest gusts arrive, there could be some disruption from this. Then the most widespread event happening Friday and into Saturday with a very deep low hitting the UK, still in a development stage so the exact positioning of the strongest gusts is still not clear cut but it should start on Friday afternoon with Ireland, Northern Ireland, and western coasts getting hit by severe gales and then the strongest winds slowly transfer towards Southern Scotland and Northern England with some very gusty winds for SE Scotland and NE England(with the affect of being on the 'lee' of the Pennines which can increase wind gusts substancially) overnight into Saturday morning before very slowly easing although still gusty during Saturday. Bound to be power cuts and falling trees from this low pressure system and no doubt the Met Office will have it named by tomorrow morning(or they certainly should anyway!). Sunday's low is a lot more uncertain and its one of those that could end up being quite a shallow feature but the models at the moment are indicating quite a strong storm but too far out to place to much analysis on it.
  10. It has but its more because of the ice loss in the Bering sea which meant ice extent has gone down and slowed right down at the same time. Infact the weather in the Bering sea does look rather interesting with frequent southerly winds and strong lows forecast to head into the Bering stright so how much ice there will be in 7 days time in that area will be interesting too see. I have a feeling we are going too see a repeat of last year in the melting season of very strong Atlanticfication occurring also. I do hope the Barants and the Bering sea in particular can recover and see some proper cold air soon because whilst the peripherally ice in some regions are largely irrelevant, they are more important in the Barants Sea and the Bering sea to limit the inflow of warmer ocean waters affecting sea ice melt.
  11. Wow.. read the last few pages on here and tbere has not been one single post about the deep low potentially hitting the UK for Saturday. All models agree on it with even the usually modest UKMO going for quite a deep low in its output. Of course the details could change and it could be more run of the mill stuff but one to keep an eye on because theres bound to be some disruption if the models are right. Further ahead most models are hinting the Azores high coming into play bringing widespread double figure temperatures but as the UKMO shows this is by no means a certainty and something colder may come into play again.
  12. Did get a little bit of snow here from a trough that came down from the North East during the beast from the east but the vast majority of showers died off by the time they get over the hills. Dont think its just the hills that kills showers though, i see all the time in polar maritime north westerlies that the western half of Ireland and Northern Ireland get battered with big beefy showers yet the eastern half of Ireland barely get anything as they quickly die away and i dont think there is a huge amount of high ground there so clearly a meteological reason for it. Hence why in that set up we dont get any showers from Ireland, they all come from the irish sea instead.
  13. Wow even Morecambe got the lightest of dusting of snow, slightly marginally more than we got the other morning. Im actually up in the North East next week, shame it wasnt this week... Not sure there is too much potential for Sunday, really need the low to be a shallow feature but higher ground could definately see some snowfall.
  14. Got the lightest most patchiest of dustings here, i keep looking at the radar and its de ja vu it seems with that line of showers just skirting to the south of me, nevermind thats just how the weather goes. At least Barmada is happy though - thank goodness.
  15. Got to say this front could definately produce for those further southwards and eastwards in the region especially with the increasing reports of the PPN turning wintry and actual snow falling for some areas like Manchester.
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