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Geordiesnow

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Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

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  1. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Agree with parts of this post but you can't tell me for certain that the jet stream positioning is all down to sea ice. Natural factors are no doubt are at play also. We had the theory that warmer arctic summers with less ice will promote more blocking at higher latitudes as warm air tend to come with high pressure cells than troughs which in turn pushes the jet stream further south and giving the UK poorer summers but it turned out that this won't always be the case because of variability. I think one thing of climate change has done is that upper air Temps are warmer globally and less sea ice means less moderation of that warmth. The Laptev sea is a good example of this with its very high anomalies atm yet if the laptev was as ice covered as 2016 we won't be seeing such temperatures right now.
  2. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Well it's going to be an interesting autumn season in Siberia as the laptev sea is well below average ice wise and running very warm indeed and could well have an affect just how north the ice edge heads to the pole from the laptev because at the moment with high pressure near by and lower pressure over the Barants sea there is a continioust supply of southerly winds going on at the moment and there is no real sign of that changing at the moment. If anything it could get worse if a deeper low comes into play as the models are sort of hinting at.
  3. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    And that ice edge has got real potential to edge even further Northwards with perhaps one of the most compelling set ups I have seen, nothing unusual about the set up itself as a reverse dipole do occur but the warmth at upper air level is quite something with +10 uppers heading towards the pole via the fram straight. Could we see ice lifting away from parts of the Greenland coastline!? The wind flow looks potentially quite strong also at one point so the next 5 days or so will be one to watch around there. The impressive heatwave over Scandinavia is going to make its presence on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, that is climate change sadly. I said in me last post we could finish above 2017 but I'm not too sure now, the Atlantic side could well look similar to 2013 by September and the Pacific side is looking vulnable to say the least so can we rule out 2nd lowest on record just yet?
  4. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    A few points I would like to make on this post. A June cliff imo is not a thing of the past, we seen June cliffs in 2013 for example but the reason why we probably not seen a June cliff this year was down to the low ice extent to start off with coupled with chilly conditions where the ice was thinner in the Beaufort whereas the heat was more concentrated in the ESS where the ice was thicker so it despite the heat the ice will not give up so easily, If the heat hit the Beaufort then it would be a totally different story now. I don't think the ice in the ESS is all that poised to melt out quickly but the ice in the Beaufort is and I suspect the ice pack shape could resemble a shape similar to 2009/11/17 where you had an arm of ice in the Beaufort followed by a dip of open water and then an arm of ice stretching towards the ESS. Just how much ice there be by September will depend on weather patterns but at this early stage it does look like the final shape of the ice pack could be something like that. A large storm could well do damage to the pack but the shape of the pack at the moment does not suggest that ice will separate from the main pack like it did in 2012 but at this moment it's irrelevant to speculate at this stage as there is no deep lows on the forecast but stormy weather tends to increase after mid August as the PV shows first signs of trying to strengthen again so it's one to watch in 3 to 4 weeks time. I noticed a post by Neven on the Arctic sea ice forum that area has slowed down so compactness has gone up after a cliff from record highs to a brief record low(in data that is only 11 or so years old) so this suggests extent could slow down if weather conditions allow it to do so but it also suggests the CAB is more ice concentrated than it was in 2012 and other years which tells me a record low is unlikely and a 2016 finish of a very diffuse ice cover is not likely either. If I was to go for punt on the final extent I think a low on the Jaxa data of 4.60km is what I would go for.
  5. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Been really interesting to see how this melt season ice distribution has been totally different to last year's in that 2017 had an ice pack more favoured towards the Atlantic side of the Arctic whereas this year the ice on the Pacific side has been more persistent especially in the ESS. However, the ice on the Pacific side and especially in the Beaufort sea is falling apart now and the ice here is looking very much like slush now in most parts so i do expect the strong melting we seen recently to continue but conditions in the CAB do look like remaining chilly so hopefully we wont see much in the way of low concentration here. Also the trend is for pressure to rise across the Arctic although details are subject to change, that said don't quite see a full on dipole appearing yet in the medium term or anything as severe as in 2007/11 and 2015 but as August 2014 shows though, if a strong high pressure cell does form even into August then it can still do quite a bit of considerable damage to the ice so still a way to go in this melt season to know where we will fully end up by September.
  6. Geordiesnow

    World Cup 2018

    Wow... Can't believe he said that, really has let the hype of winning the golden boot go over his head, really did not deserve it at all. I'm not going to say scoring penalties are easy as there is a lot of pressure but the possibilities of the striker scoring outweighs than of him missing it. Really stand by what I said though, the fact we got to the semis has really clouded people's thoughts on this world cup, I see the same old problems of little creativity and passing for the sack of passing and I have never seen an England team so direct before either. Then you got Southgate who has done nothing tactically which helps the team when they are struggling so I'm really not convinced by him at all.
  7. Geordiesnow

    World Cup 2018

    Well maybe that's part of the problem then, the team was just too young but then we seen young Spanish and German teams before and they played much better football than we did. Honestly don't see what the hype is about, there was no plan in the 2nd half and that been a recurring theme in this tornement. The amount of shots on target and amount of chances from open play is embarrassing for England and Southgate is not the man to lead us forward, too many deluded English pundits and Modrics comments were spot on BTW.
  8. Geordiesnow

    World Cup 2018

    Even as a geordie I felt sorry for Henderson because he could quite clearly could not handle Modric and Rakatic in midfield and Southgate did NOTHING to change that. Honestly as nice of a guy Southgate seems to be he has done nothing in this tornement to suggest he's aware tactically because his subs were just like for like it would seem and until last night never been behind in games but the alarm bells were there in the Colombia game and even the 2nd half against Sweden, I never felt the game management was great, we kept hitting it long and never looked like killing the game off by getting g a 3rd goal. Southgate took Middlesbrough down and got sacked in the championship by them, he is just a younger version of Alladyce really and quite frankly overrated and let's be honest the fact we got to the semis via the easier route covers the cracks of more flaws within the national team and you can blame the Premier League for that. Sheer lack of players to choose from really.
  9. Geordiesnow

    World Cup 2018

    I thought yet again Kane looked rather out of his depth at international level(like he did in the Euros) when he is playing in a team that is inferior to Tottenham and playing against much better defences(for the most part) than most of the Premier League can offer. Imo he had a poor tornament and his goals, which 3 came off penalties and 1 lucky deflection kind of covered the cracks on how poor he looked. He is definately not a world class player because he can't carry a team and nor can he seem to create chances for himself in a team that struggles in the creative department. The likes of Ronaldo can and from what I seen of Mbappe in the last few years, then so will he. Some positives include Tripper, Maguire and Pickford who could well be constant England Internationals in the future but Ali looked out of his depth also and Rashford from his brief cameos failed to impress either. Maybe we are seeing why Jose doesn't fancy him and that he is progressing too young and should not really be near the England team.
  10. Geordiesnow

    World Cup 2018

    Got to say it does seem the story of the tornement decent first half but woeful 2nd really and deserved to go out in the end. I'm not particularly buying into this semis final hype either, England had the easiest route to get there in many of a year and you can't exactly say any performance by England during this tornement apart from the first half's against Panama and Tunisia were exactly wow factor. Lack of creativity remains a huge concern really.
  11. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Think that is a decent point as compactness has dropped so sharply it went from the highest on record to the lowest on record in a matter of a couple of weeks which suggests parts of the ice pack is weakening a lot and melt ponds could well be quite high too. Really uncertain on where we will end up this year although I think a record low could be fairly unlikely. The big joker to this year's melt could well be bottom melt as SSTS are well above average all around the ice. You also have to say on the whole weather conditions look favourable for ice retention although there is a complication in that some warmer air will hit the Beaufort sea with quite strong winds. Also Hudson, Kara and to a lesser extent baffin bay are poised to melt out very soon could mean we will see quite strong extent losses anyways especially with how vulnable the ice is looking in these regions.
  12. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Very impressive heat it must be said however how much cloud there will be is more uncertain. Either way a low pressure system which looks like could be a deep one will cut off the heat and things turn much colder with a strong reverse dipole developing. Interesting times.
  13. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Think it's fair to say that the first week or so of July has the potential to be really interesting as most of the Pacific side of the Arctic from tomorrow will get a major heat blast with uppers of 15C being fairly Widespread. This hot air then starts to get cut off after 2 to 3 days by a low crossing from the Russian side of the basin to the Canadian side which results in one of the strongest reverse dipoles I have seen in July since being interested in the Arctic melt seasons. The low has the potential to be quite deep also as the cold CAB airmass and the hot airmasses start mixing in with the low but I think it will be the strength of the reverse dipole that will be the main talking point after what damage this hot pool of air could do to the ice in the next 2 to 3 days. This melting season is totally different to 2017 in terms of current extent, shape of the ice pack and even the weather to some extent so I have no idea if we will finish above last year's total or not.
  14. One thing this region does offer over the NE is definately a prolonged run of temps into the mid 20s and even high twenties and long may it continue. No low cloud and sea fog in sight!
  15. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Some very interesting weather is coming up with a mixture of a significant WAA into the Pacific side of the Arctic and coupled with the cooler air over the pole could well produce a deep low. The WAA blast is due to come in significantly from Tuesday into Wednesday and uppers of above 16C is likely so quite a significant event and coupled with strong winds I do suspect we will start seeing ice in the ESS to start melting out and moving away from the coastlines. At the same time we do have a small but tightly packed low pressure system situated between the laptev hole and the pole which fills but the models are hinting this could intensify again as the tropical and polar airmasses start clashing together. On a seperate note the Atlantic front retreat has slowed down but this is quite a unique event seeing it so far north already. I don't think it will reach the pole but a 2013 event is well on the cards where the Atlantic front was ridiculasly far North.
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