Geordiesnow

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Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

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About Geordiesnow

  • Birthday 09/03/91

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  1. I'm surprised you got nothing as another member reported, there was a decent storm heading northwards at about 4:30 and I don't think your location is all that far away, maybe it fizzled out or headed to far eastwards? As for here, looks like that might be it, kind of feel you always wanted more but appreciate what I did get when you see how other areas completely missed out. As ever with storms, its the luck of the draw really, some places will get them, others won't.
  2. Just had a decent 15 min storm passing through here, was strange at one point because about 5 mins into the storm, the skies turned very dark with what looked like low cloud and it was heading in an easterly direction, maybe a funnel cloud was trying to form? either way it quickly went and the lightning was frequent and spectacular.
  3. Saw the storm you had previously heading Northwards, could not see a lot of lightning from my position but the core looked impressive so no doubt there would of been torrential rain underneath it. More rumbles around here now with some rain.
  4. Bit dissapointing none of the storms from the South actually traveled northwards as it would of been nice too see a good old night time storm but it will be interesting too see how that cluster of rain/storms develops from Wales during this afternoon, some forecasts seem promising but we had this many times before only for it to not turn out how we would expect it.
  5. Well the 3 days of substantial of very warm air hitting the Pacific side of the Arctic is more or less over now as the reverse dipole takes shape but not without causing quite a lot of ice melt over the East Siberian/Chuckchi seas and the net result has been 3 consecutive century breaks in a row - not terribly unusual for July but goes to show, any real heat hitting this ice pack is causing substantial ice melt. With the reverse dipole kicking in now and the weather forecast seem to be suggesting a fairly slack looking set up coming, extent figures could start to slow down somewhat, looks similar to the 2nd half of July 2014 but as it stands, not as cold in terms of upper air temps at least but if the favourable set ups last a good while then the ice pack has got a chance of not ending up too low but we shall see. One thing to note is the definate trend of the Kara sea having a long heatwave which is already ramping up the SST's and the Atlantic side recieving warm southerlies although the strength at this stage is fairly slack but some retreat on the Atlantic side looks likely, one to watch for sure.
  6. Well this thin ice towards the Pacific side of the Arctic will have an interesting 72 hours or so as we get a very warm plume heading in from the Pacific coupled with no doubt quite sunny skies to boot, we saw in 2015(around this time of year) the dramatic effects this had on the ice although thankfully it is not quite as severe and long lasting as it was back then as the pattern is forecast to break down quickly by low pressure over the CAB although the models kind of disagree on what happens next, most GFS runs had the low deepening but not one Euro run has backed this and some sort of reverse dipole looks the most likely and it will be interesting to observe what happens to the ice edge over Barents if the forecast Southerlies come to fruition as it looks a fairly potent southerly in store. I think its fair to say whilst things do seem to be on a knife edge, we could be looking at a far worse situation when we saw those volume figures back in Spring and it is interesting what the final shape and extent of the ice will be come September.
  7. Well last year shown quite nicely how on paper more favourable looking set ups still made us 2nd lowest on record but traditionally reverse di-poles would tend to favour retaining ice and its something I rather see than a true dipole at this time of year. I'm not too sure about this "warm ice" and "cold ice" theory but the ice is thinner this year and for me its ice thickness that will no doubt play a major role on where we will end up by the end of this melt season. The pacific side of the Arctic has been melting quite rapidly this year which is no surprise as weather patterns have favoured this but it has not exactly been a 2007/2011 style set up either where high pressure and warmth were quite dominant in those melt seasons.
  8. Interesting melt season thus far I got to say, ice extent across the pacific side looks very similar to 2007 but the CAB compared to 2016 from my observations looks more concentrated this year compared to last year and last year did see open water entering not too far away from the pole and a heavily fragmented CAB so there is maybe a case that this year we may even finish above 2016 despite so far weather conditions in general has been a bit more favourable for ice melt? Looking ahead, it does look like high pressure will dominate the Pacific side and there are hints we may see a ridge entering from the Pacific to join up with the high in the Arctic which will cause strong southerly winds and bring in a lot of warm air again. As ever, its not always that plain sailing as this afternoon's GFS 12Z run shows which would be more favourable for the ice.
  9. The potential is certainly there as a cold low starts to mix in with a heat dome that is forecast over Siberia, these temperature contrasts certainly have the potential to produce a deep depression but even if it doen not rapidly deepen then all the models are trending a strong dipole like formation in the Chuckchi sea with pressure being high over Beaufort and much lower over Laptev, how long that lasts for is another matter but very strong winds will no doubt push that ice edge further Northwards yet again. So potentially some interesting times ahead and even in the here and now, it will be interesting what this fairly deep low will do to the ice right now, is the air cold enough and the low not too deep enough not to cause damage to the ice or not?
  10. I dont think you need to look at extent figures to figure out just how serious things are getting on the pacific side of the Arctic. The polyna on the siberian side is just extraordinary and totally against any other years wirh 2011 the only other year which looks similar but no where near as bad as it is now, really think now open water could be recorded so far North in places that usually dont see any open water until very late in the season quite soon and the forecasts look pretty poor also. Any hint of a pattern change gets pushed back and if this continues then i cant see anything but a record low occuring. Atlantic side of the Arctic may stay steady but i much rather have more ice on the pacific than the Atlantic side. There is a chance of seeing genuine true ooen water at the pike this year i feel.
  11. Some more distant rumblings occuring but i do suspect im still too far westwards though but we shall see.
  12. Got a feeling i might be too far west but have heard grequent thunder and there is dark clouds in the vicinity, shame the window of opportunity is small today as soon as the wind turns westerly i suspect that will be it
  13. Cant believe people are raving about Marco Silva, manager get relegated and yet will end up with another top flight job because hes bottling of working in the Championship! Appreciate Silva has improved Hull but they could not of got any worsereally as Phelan did a poor job and just said the same things over and over again. I bet if that was Paul Clement or any other brtish manager Watford would not come calling and he would of been managing in rhw Championship.
  14. Even though extent may be in the middle of the pack of recent years, it does look like a summer of quite low sea ice extent looks quite likely with lowest or 2nd lowest looking the most likely. The pacific side of the Arctic looks dire too me and we got an unprecedented polynya in the East Siberian Sea/Chuckchi so how will that affect the ice will be interesting as we head into June. If we have the heatwave early on like we saw last year in this area, the ice will surely melt out quite rapidly there just because of the large amount of open water we got there at the moment. As it happens, there is more ice in the Kara sea now than there was during March! Has been quite a cold spring in Kara but the models are strongly hinting at the first significant warm blast hitting this area with strong southerly winds from Russia so ice pulling away from the coast looks very likely to me along with some melting also although how long will this last is open to debate. Some pulses of plus 0 air is now enterting the basin as we head out of May and into June, nothing too unusual in that but with such low volume and thickness, you just get the feeling its not going to take an awful lot to start rapidly melting that ice. Really going to be an interesting melt season coming up and the fact extent is within the pack of recent years does make it more interesting instead of lurking where 2016 is.
  15. Totally deserved to win i feel, they by far tactically beat Ajax who never seemed to have a plan B. So all this modern and right way of playing is a load of bull, its about the tactics and united wn ugly but they won and quite comfortable. Ajax was more interested in playing tika tacka football and trying to be like Barca but failed miserably and got what they deserved really. Against lesser teams though, i think they be great to watch but they missed a big opportunity.