Geordiesnow

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Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

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About Geordiesnow

  • Birthday 09/03/91

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  1. Phil Neville has literally just said that was Leicester's best performance of the season! I think going by the sound of Chappers, he can't quite believe he has said that! Lets be honest 2-1 totally flattens Leicester but they will take that because it could of been tie over by half time as Sevilla was that dominant. They have got a chance though in the 2nd leg with home advantage and that important away goal so should be a cracking 2nd leg hopefully.
  2. I think what does look more certain than whether it will turn significantly colder or not is that it will turn a lot wetter which given the fairly dry winter may not be such a bad thing. Alot of uncertainty remains if we are going too see any severe gales or not but the potential is there for deep lows to develop so a late winter deep low is certainly not out of the question. Saw a poster talking about he would not rule out 20C being recorded on Monday, I think that is very unlikely but it would be quite an eye opener if it was recorded somewhere! To be fair, the real mild air in recent runs has been shifted a bit more further Southwards so parts of Scotland may have a cooler day than perhaps first thought but its one to keep an eye on. One good thing about the potential of more Atlantic type weather is the sunshine amounts should increase somewhat as for the most part, its looking quite dull with sunshine at a premium to say the least.
  3. Oh for goodness sakes! There has been talk of cold spells and potential from certain quarters at the medium to long range all winter and whilst it might happen, why do we have to put timeframes on such potential? its boring reading about it to be honest and lets focus on the realitys that for the foreseeable, there is no cold heading our way and Monday could be an exceptionally mild day across the board. The only bit of good news for anyone wanting a late blast of winter(which I would welcome) is that the models are forecasting the PV across the Arctic to be quite strong so IF any SSW can help to create WAA to head towards the poles, then that strong PV will start to flood southwards and if we are lucky then any blast of cold could be quite potent which will mean despite moving into Spring, we can still get a decent spell of cold and snow but that is a long way off from verifying at this moment in time.
  4. Its very rare if not nearly impossible to have 2 weeks of hot weather though so your expectations are quite high. i thought last summer around here was a decent one, especially June where our region was heavily favoured when you compared to those on the East Coast with persistent low cloud and sea mist. One good thing about moving here is that I won't mind seeing charts such as SE'lies because more chance of getting sunshine instead of sea fog! As for today, going as forecast, very little PPN on this side of the pennines and on the other side, a horrible grotty winter's day! Yuk!
  5. The easterly was never a beasterly anyway, it was never a classic easterly to start off, some should be lucky there is actually a little bit of moisture being picked up from the North Sea to give some a little bit of snowfall because initially the easterly was more of a ESE'ly and was looking quite dry and cloudy. The only thing about this easterly is that it actually producing some quite cold upper air temps but with high thicknesses and pressure, its quite a stable easterly hence a lot of cloud and no convective weather. Next week is still a bit uncertain on just how much milder it will get, take the GFS for example, within the flow there is pockets of less high thicknesses which suggests more cloud and a bit of PPN along with slightly cooler uppers, if this was to happen, then temps may struggle to get into double figures on a widely basis. The UKMO has much higher thicknesses which suggests warmer uppers which means temps will be higher, how much sunshine there be is hard to tell but if there is going to be some, it could really boost the temps and the weather will feel spring like. As for any retrogession into Greenland - i believe that when I see it because its the same old storey as far as getting Greenland highs is concerned in winter, very hard thing to achieve with the increased amount of shortwaves we seem to get these days.
  6. The thicknesses are really quite poor despite the cold upper air and for this reason, the freezing level and dewpoints are probably slightly higher than one would imagine although I guess they will get quite low as we head into Thursday and friday. I expect some parts of the region too see evidence of lying snow by Friday morning as this seems to be the best time for a little bit of instability and something marginally heavier in terms of PPN. Saturday looks like a horrible grotty day though, even in a convective set up -7 or so upper air temps and a on shore winds does not tend to mean snow so very little chance it will mean that in a more frontal set up. Higher parts of the region should be okay though I would imagine.
  7. Yep alot of people are expecting a snowfest on Saturday but it looks like its going to be a grotty day in eastern areas with a strong on shore wind and rain piling in, not nice at all! The hills should be cold enough for snow and perhaps some western areas especially over higher ground. Got to say, looking at first glance, the ECM does not look like it will produce much PPN for Saturday with higher thicknesses for one which suggests less instability for clouds and PPN to form. Either way, a little snow in the short term before turning grotty for the weekend(again with the risk of some snowfall on the higher ground) with a stiff cold wind before slowly turning milder into next week. Still some uncertainty just how quick the milder air comes in and just how close any frontal rainfall gets to the South West - the orientations of the blocking high and the deep low in the bay of Biscay is going to be crucial what type of weather we may see next week. The ECM looks drier too me than the GFS although both models do seem to indicate we will see a true southerly flow which will bring the milder and drier conditions.
  8. Or too soon because most outputs don't seem to suggest retrogression and its too far out to be certain! I get the feeling from some people that they are looking at all these fancy background signals which may help with HLB therefore basically saying just back and relax, the blocking will come. We should know the weather doesn't always work out like that and as Crewecold pointed out, there was loads of hype in here about December's prospects because of these background signals and we all know how that turned out! At the moment, I see very little evidence of any retrogression to Greenland and I'm always skeptical about Greenland highs because the models could well indicate one could arrive but shortwaves tend to scupper them nearer the short term so we always end up with the half hearted attempt. What I do see in the output is a blocked outlook, none of the models are suggesting any Atlantic based weather for a while yet but unfortunately the block is going to set up which will deliver more in the way of milder air, at least for the timebeing.
  9. The block is still there, its just shifted orientation which if the models are to be believed then its going to pump up Southerlies next week so a cold snap with a small chance of some snow for some then turning slightly milder going into the new week. Certainly no atlantic weather coming in so its a blocked outlook but as with the theme of the winter, there is no real joy in the outlook for coldies. If you can enjoy the upcoming easterly then good luck to you because stratuscumlus cloud with the slim chance of some snowfall really does not fill me with much joy at all! Give me a proper convective NW'ly blast with cold uppers and then you got some exciting weather with a better chance of some snowfall.
  10. Don't understand why people are dissapointed too see the cold flow getting cut off for next week as that is the most likely thing to happen from all the runs I have seen, I think we shoud be happy that there is actually a genuine risk of some snowfall this weekend although details on this is really is sketchy. We were looking at a dry cloudy horrible cold ESE'ly flow with high thicknesses but the short term upgrades includes slightly lower thicknesses, slightly lower pressure thanks to a shallow low that is forecast to develop over the North sea and head towards the UK. I see 'snow showers' being mentioned but to me its not snow showers, its outbreaks of PPN from a weather front/trough rather than anything convective, question will be, will it be cold enough to fall as snow as with higher thicknesses and the fact the PPN is not convective then temps do seem slightly higher than one might expect so for some eastern areas it could be more rain/sleet but its one to watch with interest and see how the forecasts plays out.
  11. I think some peoples expectations of the upcoming easterly is far too high to start off with and I think its because we are seeing uppers of -10 heading our way, some are assuming that will equal a snowfest hence some of the posts stating there dissapointment at today's runs. The easterly is NOT a snowy convective easterly to start off with and any PPN that does form will be either from weather fronts/troughs and because of cold air and pressure being fairly high then PPN amounts will be quite limited. The trend has been for the air to start mixing out a little bit hence by Sunday and when we pick up that SE'ly flow the uppers will start to rise. The ECM evolution is plausiable because I have seen so many retorgression attempts fail because of shortwaves, some people on here who should know better should not dismiss it out of hand, whether we will end up with the Euro high developing is far too early to say but past experiences may suggest this is more likely than a Greenland high. There could be some surprises this weekend regarding snowfall as these shallow lower thicknesses/heights can produce more PPN than expected and it will be slow moving but for me this is not a classic easterly and never has been. The only impressive thing about it is the cold pool but in terms of weather excitment then I don't think it will be a memorable one unfortunately as frosts could well be more limited, sunshine very limited and convective snow showers virtually non existance.
  12. Got to say it is good too see the models have upgraded in the short term so we are getting more of a ENE'y flow with slightly lower pressure and slightly lower thicknesses but I still don't think its enough to bring the classic sunshine and shower set up which for me is what a classic easterly is imo. Any PPN will be dynamic rather than convective however if the air is cold enough and other factors come into play then some places might see some snowfall which is not classed as snow flurries! The high thicknesses is probably one of the reasons why temps are forecast to rise as high as 4 or 5C despite cold uppers overhead being quite cold, lack of PPN could also be another factor. If there is any clear skies anywhere then some severe frosts are likely but I suspect frosts could well be a bit patchy from region to region because the large amount of cloud that is forecast.
  13. Maybe I have missed those runs then because I have not seen any op runs suggesting a classic convective easterly which the GEM may deliver, I have constantly seen an ESE'ly-SE'ly flow bringing in colder upper air temps but with high thicknesses so convection is very limited. This upcoming easterly does remind me of the one a few years back where it bought -10 uppers but because thicknesses were not all that low, lapse rates were not low either so there was a lot of stratuscumlus cloud with limited convection(e.g some snow showers but well scattered and not all that heavy) I do wonder with the flow more ESE'ly/SE'ly we may see clearer conditions so chances are it could be quite sunny and cold, at least at first but as Helen Wiletts hinted at in her forecast yesterday, we may see the high eventually become a cloudy one. Either way its an interesting period of model watching and the battleground set up is always interesting in the way how things eventually play out.
  14. Got to say, I personally havant seen much trend of a convective easterly appearing in the outputs a few days ago, I think the models in fairness has been consistent on a cold dry SE/ESE'ly airflow which may eventually back easterly but convection being rather limited. There has been of course variations which is affecting just how cold the upper air temps could get but all in all, it looks like we will have some sort of influence from the continent from mid-week onwards. That said, I don't mind suffering cold raw cloudy days if it leads to something more showery and convective down the line and whilst the block is in place, then we always got a chance. I think a lot of people hoping the GEM is right but I say its very unlikely although as some of the fantastic analysis shows, it only needs a minor change for the output to change.
  15. I think the problem we are seeing here is too much focus is on the details of each run and in this type of set up, any detail change could mean quite a difference in terms of how cold the uppers will actually be. I think the main trend I can see is that the weather should start to turn drier and more settled with the potential for some overnight frosts in places, potentially severe frosts if it sets up correctly. I really don't see snowfall being an issue at the moment as none of the models are really indicating its going to be a convective easterly as thicknesses and to a lesser extent pressure is too high for instability to form. I do think a Southerly/SE'ly drift from the continent looks the most likely to happen and whether we actually see a true easterly and a convective one remains to be seen although at this stage it looks unlikely I say.