Jump to content

Geordiesnow

Members
  • Content count

    4,503
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

Geordiesnow had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

1,652 Exceptional

1 Follower

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Morecambe

Recent Profile Visitors

15,057 profile views
  1. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Well avoid it thus far thankfully because we will no doubt be seeing different results if the true dipole did form giving how vulnable Beaufort ice is. Models are still trending more or less cooler Alaskan/CAA With warmer Siberian and Kara seas which means a continuation of the reverse dipole although the pressure patterns are quite slack at this moment in times. Trend also seems to be to once again push that cold low further towards Beaufort and Chuckchi seas after a bit of a retreat in the next few days. That said I have seen other runs(albeit the exception rather than the rule) of pressure trying to rise around Beaufort with lower pressure towards the ESS and whilst no run indicated a huge dipole it does mean a favourable set up on paper becomes less favourable so it can quickly change. One thing of interest/concern has to be the retreat of the Atlantic front, it's no secret the ice between the pole and Svalbard is quite thin so just how far north will that ice edge go? 2013 style perhaps? Either way it's good too see the ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic is being a bit more resilient than it was last year, the real low volume did show in the early part of last year's melt season and this year is the total opposite on last year in respect there is more ice this year in the Pacific regions but less in the Atlantic sector this year(With the exception of the Kara sea).
  2. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    But what are these new methods though. I see nothing wrong with the 15% cut off point for extent no matter what the state of the ice is. Obviously the larger like drops should commence soon and area is still going down steadily which suggests the slow down is down to ice spreading out into open water.
  3. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    If you change how the data is shown then you have to write off every bit of data since 1979 then so I just dont see the point of it just because we have seen a stall/slight gain in extent. Besides it's not totally unusual in the christmas pudding to have these slowdowns and slight gains during the summer months. Back to the ice and it looks too me the ice pack is getting less compact and the compactness charts seem to agree with this. How much this is down to the ice pack getting spread out or down to melt ponds or even just satellite error(due to clouds for example) is unclear but be interesting to watch especially as in theory weather conditions for the next 3 to 5 days looks favorable for ice retention in the Beaufort and Chuckchi Seas. Laptev and Kara do look warmer but winds for the most part don't seem to be blowing too much off the landmasses unlike previously
  4. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    The warmth over Laptev may of subsided slightly as the flow is more variable with a shallow low/vortex developing which I assume will bring more cloud and perhaps slightly cooler Temps but models in general are more or less suggesting a reverse dipole so high pressure over the siberian section and low pressure on the Canadian/Alaska side of the basin. Its the ESS turn in terms ofor winds blowing in from a hot landmass. Wonder how much melt ponds we will see here.
  5. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Interesting times indeed. The storm itself probably won't alter things much extent wise despite it's strength as whilst it's very deep, in terms of how much ice it affects looks minimal but it will be interesting too see tomorrow's breman sea ice update in the Northern Kara sea area too see what affect it has had. Too me the concern is in the Laptev sea the huge hole which has developed will no doubt get bigger in the coming days as hot winds off the landmass hits this area for at least several days but apparently the ice is thicker on that side of the Arctic so be interesting how it reacts to such warmth and as GW says waves also. If the high sets up over the ESS then melt ponding could really come into play and according to the models this is where the fast ice is which tend to suggests it's quite thick so this will be a good test for the ice there. I suppose one consolation perhaps is conditions should be cold and cloudy over the Beaufort sea and the ice is much thinner here so if this dipole was the opposite way round you could say it looks 2007 like and the damage to extent numbers would of been felt much quicker.
  6. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Hard to say how much this spell of weather will affect extent numbers but the potential is there to cause some serious melt ponds forming on parts of that supposed thicker ice on the Russian side of the Arctic and for the laptev bite to become a whole lot bigger. The million pound question will be just how much will these strong winds affect the fragile looking ice in the northern parts of the Kara Sea I predict we could see a split of the fast more solid looking ice near FJL and the main ice pack. Interesting 5 or so days coming up.
  7. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    The dipole that the models showed did not really come off in the end however there does seem to be a dipole of a different sort developing in the coming days with a intense warm spell hitting the laptev and perhaps the Kara Sea also with pressure high here whilst a deep low could be centred near the pole. One to watch especially with the large opening in the laptev already. Be interesting how the ice around Franz Josef land reacts to this current storm as its been quite stubborn to melt thus far although the ice further North does look a lother more fragile.
  8. According to the radar there is or was a shower cell near here but in reality it was just a dark based cloud with no real sign of any PPN so be aware of any false echos on the radar.
  9. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    I don't quite see that set up your describing(as the flow is coming in from the Alaskan landmass rather than the Bering Sea) but as GW says, the Beaufort high is setting up(which does tend to happen at this time of year and is not all that unusual) and they can be quite hard to shift also. Lots of variations from run to run as expected but the common theme does seem to be high pressure over Beaufort and lower pressure over Laptev and this means the infamous dipole which is not good news for the ice. Wait and see how it develop as variations from run to run will continue but a strong flow in the Beaufort sea area does look likely at least for a couple of days which would then suggest open water will develop in the Beaufort although not to the extent of 2016. Also an area of interest is the Greenland Sea, fram export is looking minimal for the foreseeable future(which is a good thing) but potentially warm air hitting the east coast of Greenland and SST's to the east are high so it will be interesting how much ice will cling onto Greenland by the end of the month.
  10. Geordiesnow

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    I always find this talk of high pressure at this time of year quite interesting because for me there is a difference between a high that forms over the basin itself and a high that ridges on from the landmasses. What I seen in general for the most of April is a high that is formed over the basin, this too me is not the worse thing as upper and lower air temps will be quite low and clear skies at night will still allow temps to fall away significantly and for ice thickening to still continue somewhat. In May this is less of an affect but upper and surface temperatures can still be fairly cold abd surely the cold tempertures mean there is less likely of melt ponds forming which of course can be a major factor later on in the melt season. If a high ridges in from the landmass and in particular the Beaufort high, this can lead to heat coming in from the landmasses and for ice to pull away from the coastline and we saw quite an extreme case of that during 2016. May 2011 was by far the worse month for the Beaufort high forming and quite extraordinary amount of heat coming in from Alaska, conditions did take a remarkable turnaround at the end of the month however and the open water in the Beaufort closed up somewhat but no doubt melt ponds would of been quite widespread then. May 2016 saw good pre conditioning also I believe but June was quite chilly however the state of the ice was not good hence the 2nd lowest extent in the end. As far as current conditions are concerned then after a period of fairly chilly conditions with the laptev area being fairly stormy, we are now seeing strong Southerlies going to hit the Barants Sea and attack that extensive ice edgr and no doubt will start to melt it and as the ice is quite high compared to recent years and because that ice to the east of Svalbard is not all that thick, we may see some large drops coming?
  11. Geordiesnow

    Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    Got to say the Pacific side of the Arctic is really looking very vulnable and the upcoming weather pattern and then potentially another but stronger ridge at the end of the month could well mean we will see a very unprecedented event of open water through the bering stright because sea ice in the bering sea is very thin and unusually it's very thin in the Bering stright. You only have too look at what happened during February to show just how thin that ice is and if indeed it does open up then that's a major head start to say the least but let's see if the ice can show some resilience. The other main area of interest or concern is the area north of Svalbard towards the pole, anytime we see southerly winds the ice starts to retreat rapidly and images seem to suggest that ice is also thin so one to watch for sure. Going to be an interesting few weeks coming up which could have a major impact on the melt season.
  12. Light snow all morning but be glad too see the back of this easterly and have some spring warmth. Shame there is not much sign of a real significant warm up yet. In all fairness though, as a country this Easterly delivered for sure and I'm surprised just how much snowfall has fallen as a whole.
  13. A few snow showers here but as per usual they fizzle out as soon as they reach the coast. Not expecting much tonight to be fair.
  14. Geordiesnow

    North west regional discussion

    It's really strange as from my experience, whenever we get a strong NEly wind, the can pack quite a punch, yet a strong SWly doesn't seen to have quite the same strength albeit you can sometimes hear the roar of the wind at times in the distance and being on the prom is like being in a different climate at times! Radar is showing PPN in Barrow, anything to report in Ulverston MokI?
  15. Geordiesnow

    North west regional discussion

    Very technical but either way, it's not a good thing! Do think those in Merseyside got a chance of some persistent snow tomorrow, maybe more sticky snow also so no real drifting around either, we sgall see.
×