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Geordiesnow

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Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

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  1. I think if the GFS is right then i do fancy at least higher parts of the greater Manchester area seeing some snow tonight aslong as the showers make it that far inland as the winds are not really forecast to strengthen to much until tomorrow morning, Saturday night looks promising also for inland areas although the strength of the wind may mean more sea moderation and more mixing of the cold air. I would not rule out fully seeing some sleet even at sea level during this spell but hopefully we have a TRUE convective sunshine and showers type of day tomorrow and not a day where skies get messy and grey with rain of a boring intensity, we shall see.
  2. In a way, I would not mind a toppling high in respect it could bring some proper winter weather in the form of fog and frost aslong as it topples quickly and remains firm over the UK. As it happens, the models have favoured more on the placement of the Svalbard shortwave so more colder air does threaten to get pulled further Southwards but another spoiler is the the reluctance by the ECM and GFS to fully clear the trigger low that will cross the UK during Mondayand if this happens, the colder air struggles to make it to eastern areas and its likely to be cloudier and wet in eastern areas rather bright, colder and more showery weather like the UKMO shows.
  3. That can happen, more commonly over Europe rather than ourselves though. Still the issue of those cold uppers crossing a warm North Sea can moderate them very quickly. My posts as usual are negative but we can't hide away from the facts that we are looking at a Northerly that never really gets all that cold and that a North Westerly from the Atlantic has produced colder uppers than this in the past. At the end of the day, its snowfall what people are after, frost and fog I don't mind but the current set up does not suggest too much of that because of the wind so we are looking at a set up where rain showers around the coasts will be the norm, sheltered and inland areas should be sunny as we are in polar maritime air with maximums ranging between 4 and 8C roughly and minimums in most areas hovering around if not just above 0. Just seems a waste of a good set up imo. Of course if the GFS model is more accruate with its generally colder uppers whatever the set up, then its a different storey, from my experience in Northerlies, if the wind is off shore, you need uppers of around -7 and lower to produce snow showers, most areas the ECM is showing uppers of around -4 to -5 which is not cold enough for snow showers.
  4. Even if the whole of December is zonal, then you got a chance later on in the season where traditionally the jet does start to slow and cold chances increases but for me, I would not mind seeing the poles having a rock solid PV over then get attacked by building heights over the Norwegian sea and we go from there basically. Also aslong Canada and the US is 'warm' then that is an added bonus. I mean people worry about the PV and seem to forget that in the 70's and 80's the PV used to be a lot more organised and dense and cold spells still occurred giving the right set ups. Another issue I notice in the modern times is a lack of a PV dropping in Western Russia, last year actually saw this and I was quite excited too see it and how it plays out but in the end it got swept back to its usual place of Eastern Russia and into China leaving Scandi/Western Russia starved of a deep cold pool. It says it all when I have not seen one ECM run which has the -8 line entering the UK during this period of model watching.despite set ups on papers that look good to produce those sort of uppers.
  5. The shortwave over Svalbard is one culprit I feel but also the lack of any real deep cold up there anywhere(uppers are barely even touching -20 up there) is playing a part here, I have seen colder WNW'ly flows being forecast than this Northerly but maybe climate change is playing a part because its hard to imagine a similar set up would produce uppers betwen -4 and -6 only. in the 70's and 80's as the PV was stronger back then. Who knows though.
  6. I think for most, that chart will produce patchy cloud and sunshine with convective showers in the very far SW and up in the North and North East with perhaps a more band of cloud and some rain close to the East coast due to a weather front, I think the uppers and thicknesses are low enough to produce convective showers off the sea rather than grey skies though(aslong as there is no fronts within the flow) so at least it won't be one of those infamous dull and cold days.. The charts kind of remind of February 2005, good cold set ups on paper, really underwhelming upper air temps due to svalbard region just being so warm compared to normal. A Northerly at the end of November should be cold enough for snow showers but this one unfortunately is not and apart from that one GFS run this afternoon, none of the outputs have suggested snowfall will be a feature in the weather for next week.
  7. Its just typical when the models continue to produce good set ups on paper only to produce very underwhelming uppers with the exception of the GFS which may have a cold bias(although conversely maybe the ECM got a slight warm bias?) anyways. Trend is for the UK to be on the cold side of the jet but I've seen more than enough to suggest that snowfall will be minimal and most places will likely too see rain showers rather than anything too wintry, just seems a waste too me.and i'm sure the nolvety of a cold northerly wind with rain showers will wear off quickly. Imo, we are paying the price for not having a settled PV before it get attacked by warmer air from the middle latitudes, if Svalbard and surrounding regions were colder than they are, then its a different story. If anything, the most likely time where snow to levels could occur is tomorrow across some western areas and during Saturday also. Next week at least for the first part at the moment just does not look cold enough too me and frost could well be prevented due to the strength of the wind
  8. In fairness looking at the UKMO run on Wetterzentrale, it perhaps look more better than it perhaps first appears and that a very slow topple ridge may not actually happen but wait and see on the 168 hour chart to be sure. Obviously uppers are the issue here so any showers will likely to be of mainly rain but some good convective weather nonetheless I would of thought.
  9. Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

    I do believe if the Bering stright does not refreeze during the winter then we are in real danger of getting the lowest on record and you got to say at this moment in time that does look a possibility giving the vast amounts of open water there is there, frequent southerly winds by attempted Pacific ridges is the main cause for that, the huge PV blob i mentioned in my last post in here of course avoided the Chukchi sea in a large part and headed stright towards Laptev and the Arctic is yet again going to look very warm for the time of year. One positive I suppose to note is that despite how mild it is, the fram export does look minimal because of the negative AO.
  10. Still time for that too happen but stand by the point that getting a true Greenland high is very hard to achieve nowadays for whatever reason. As it happens, I think the UKMO will be like the ECM and that is the high slowly toppling in hopefully the ECM has a more robust ridge as that will give more room for error.
  11. GFS aside, it does seem like we are moving away somewhat from a true Greenland high to a Mid Atlantic high which is what happens virtually everything time these set up occurs, always seem to be one reason or another but it always happens. Still can't believe the sheer lack of cold air on our side of the Arctic, it really is a case of feeding on scraps, all the deep PV is in Eastern Russia and china, like it always seem to be the case in recent years.
  12. Nothing wrong with cold and dry aslong skies are clear/sunny but i do hope any trend of keeping the trigger low too close to the east coast backs off and we get in the true northerly flow because believe you me, anyone living on the East coast won't relish a cold wind with rain falling which is what the weather would do if that chart came off. The further East the centre of the low the better as it be more convective if we do pull in a northerly flow and whilst uppers stay unremarkable(not once do the uppers get below -7 on the ECM which tends to be around the point where rain turns to snow away from the coasts.
  13. Awful vile chart for those down the East coast, wet, cold wind and no convection because I would imagine a front will be wrapped around that low. Sorry but the cold air is really just not appearing at all and that is down to a warm Arctic/svalbard, just look at how above average the Arctic could well be on the ECM and that is why we are feeding on scraps and that is why despite what look nice charts for cold lovers, they won't be in reality unless cold rain is your thing.
  14. Still seeing the issue unfortunately of good weather patterns on paper but very underwhelming upper air temperatures so if those charts came off then don't expect too see much of the white stuff that's for sure. Problem is we are just feeding off scraps and too many mild sectors coming into play. Still, there is going to be variation in the detail and the trend for an Atlantic high is still there so it's not going to be mild that's for sure.
  15. Yep, localised flooding is a possibility as the rainfall continues into wednesday night and into the early hours of Thursday although it gets more messy by then but its certainly one to watch as localised disruption could well occur e.g disruption on the west coast main line. Gusty winds are also forecast as the low deepends during the day as it heads northwards and Eastwards then convective weather for Thursday and then Friday's uncertainty with the shallow coming into play although i'm still surprised the ECM is still going for a slightly different option and still one I would rather too happen personally.
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