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tcc

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Everything posted by tcc

  1. tcc
    Lucky for you I don't! Anyway moving on, let's hope the Op today picks one of the -10 runs for the 12z!
  2. tcc
    Oh right! For some reason I read it the other way haha! Cheers for clearing up
  3. tcc
    GP's comment in question: The last para from current UKMET guidance: "However, there will probably also be some milder, unsettled interludes too, and as we head into the New Year this may become more of a feature in our weather". I would be selling this position right now. ---- Based on GP's above comment I think he meant to say "wouldn't" instead of "would" otherwise that would make it sound like he agrees with the Met guidance?
  4. tcc
    So you mean he should only post stuff that is going to happen in the next days? He's not saying it's going to happen, it's a possibility just like every other long range chart/means that gets posted on twitter (Cohen,Ventrice etc) it's no different. I say thanks to Matt for his thoughts!
  5. tcc
    Yes and you can guess what will happen next. Just look at the tight temp gradient off the east coast, a breeding ground for a strong jet which will inhibit any chances of HP making any northerly progress.
  6. tcc
    Whenever there has been good coverage 60N below in previous years there has always been a dominant teleconnection which appears to have stopped his theory from working (El Nino, wQBO etc) so as for this winter there isn't a dominant factor in any area, if his theory doesn't work this winter then I'm sorry to say it's going in the bin.
  7. tcc
    Haha! You just know that ECM will show something different tomorrow!
  8. tcc
    Thanks GP, be interesting to see what happens!
  9. tcc
    Thanks GP, quick question to anyone who can answer really, this bit: "That is near perfect geoeffective positioning for upward wave (Wave 1) deflection into the vortex leading to a push of the vortex towards the North Atlantic" Wouldn't that mean a +NAO for us and a stronger jet? Or is this what we'll have to have before further blocking can take hold towards end of Nov?
  10. tcc
    And your only telling us now?! Ian, you should know better than to keep this kind of news quiet! haha! Just messing, interesting that this appears to go against the Glosea5 signal?
  11. tcc
    Cheers Matt! Looking forward to it, although it's going to be alot harder this year I feel! Normally we have at least one very strong signal (strong wQBO or record breaking El NIno etc) so your powers of deduction will be intriguing, good luck mate
  12. tcc
    Off topic (sorry) and it could have been covered elsewhere, but I thought Chino along with Tony tended to do he Winter Forecast? Will Chino still look after the Strat thread this year? I mean it's great that we have Matt to write it up this year (along with Tony) as his knowledge is second to none so it will be a great read! Just wondering what happened to Chino
  13. tcc
    Probably a good idea to shut the windows mate....
  14. tcc
    Just had a 5 min heavy shower from the Crawley/Gatwick one.
  15. tcc
    erm....I'm not in Kent (Sussex/Surrey border) and it's thundering here! The Kent Clipper was round 1, we're now on round 2!
  16. tcc
    Just heard the first of hopefully lots of Thunder here in Crawley!
  17. tcc
    It's just getting darker and darker here in Crawley, we might be in luck later!
  18. tcc
    Yes for a generic short to mid term idea of the pattern then the noaa charts are useful tool. What I have found interesting is that over the last couple of winters the Glosea5 has been impressively accurate at long ranges.
  19. tcc
    Light snow here in Crawley
  20. tcc
    Ah lovely, that's what it thought it would be but could never find it on their site, cheers!
  21. tcc
    Where have you seen that MPG? Ta
  22. tcc
    Spoilsport!
  23. tcc
    Sorry Sebastiaan so are you saying that all 3 were east based? Or was 09/10 central based? Just that second sentence doesn't sound right :o)
  24. tcc
    Yes I remember reading about these when Bren and Laura (Gilbert) went on a couple of Florida chases and the theory worked a treat! In here - http://www.eots.co.uk/chase/chase.htm - very interesting
  25. tcc
    We have blue sky! With low level crud whizzing past from the North East
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