tcc
-
Posts
452 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by tcc
-
-
having another slow moving shower just now, nothing thundery unfortunately
-
Lots of big cumulus already this morning, a hell of a lot more than the last few days. Enough to produce a shower! Should be some big storms around further NW from here as the day goes on.
-
2
-
-
19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
I check ECM Snowline level for 04-0700 its 500 Feet ( 150M ) For reference.
Cut off point for snow around Tonbridge across to crawley ( All rain further south )
S
I'll let you know if your right Steve, as I live in Crawley!
-
I was 10 at the time and lived in Lancing, I remember in the morning that it thundered constantly with lots of rain but no flooding, also it wasn't particularly dark.
It was only when I looked at the news in the evening that it talked about the darkness over London in the afternoon, which made me think that was the storm I witnessed first thing in the morning. it's amazing what you remember from your childhood!
-
Quick question for those who might know, as the cold air is still bottled up for a considerable amount of time, will that mean that once we have the final warming then all that very cold air will head to the mid latitudes? So we might get a blast of winter (albeit probably late March/April!)
-
1
-
-
Used to go every before we had kids! Loved doing a park and then watching the Clouds grow in the afternoon whilst queuing haha!
Actually going again end of May/early June for the first time in about 6 years, kids are old enough now to appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing some Storms!
-
1
-
-
27 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:
But will be the vortex be displaced where we want it or where we don't want it!
Exactly, could end up over Greenland and Boom, more rain. let's hope our luck changes and we get an actual split!
-
3
-
-
2 hours ago, Wynter said:
If you read the actual Study that was kindly posted by @Summer Sun above and compare it to the Stories printed in the media, you'll probably understand my own post a bit more.
And as pointed out by @Quicksilver1989, the bit about "Mild Winter" was in jest, directed at the recent track record by the printed media (mostly the Express & Mail) using the likes of Nathan Rao & Piers Corbyn amongst other, to incorrectly predict the weather.
Ah Gotcha! Thanks (and to Quicksilver!) Well let's hope that there is something in this!
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, Wynter said:
Mild Winter it is then!
When will these idiots in the Newspaper Media ever learn? If they were just a bit more honest and a little less sensationalised, they'd probably increase their circulation!
Eh? Have I misread the article? By all accounts it is giving a high Probabilistic that we will have a lower than normal CET along with a -NAO for Jan and Feb? Obviously it's a long way out, but I'm not reading it as showing a Mild Winter? Unless I'm being woooosshed?!
-
I think there isn't that much excitement because this winter has been abysmal for us down here with so much potential which just hasn't materialized. Even now the long term view from the Met office is for it turn colder in early Feb etc, but the Models don't appear to be picking this up, does that mean another false dawn? It could well be!
As for tomorrow night the parameters needed for snowfall look to be marginal, so it's entirely possible that people will wake up Wed morning and not find any settling snow. Hopefully not because the way this winter has gone, this week could be our best chance of lying snow until next Winter.
I'd take lying snow for 24 hours from this awful Winter right now!
As you can tell, I'm a bit peeved about this Winter, I think it was the background signals (let alone the SSW) which peaked my interest and raised my expectations. However, to finish on a more positive note I'm hopeful that we will see some snow in Feb/March. El Nino type winters favour back end Winters for us and traditionally it seems we get our best chances later in Feb/March for snow!
-
3
-
-
22 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Regardless of what happens past Wednesday more and more models are developing a low either over N France or the channel on mon-tues.
Both the GFS para and ECM produce significant snow for the SE (para goes for 10-20cms, similar from the ECM) so it's well worth keeping a sharp eye on that, it is gaining traction on the ensembles as well...
Yep definitely KW! Just hope it holds or gets better for us down here. Who knows could potentially end up being best chance of decent snow this winter! (Although obviously I hope not!), over the weekend it will come into the HIRES range so we can either discount it or start the countdown.
-
My brain hurts! So many permutations and different opinions as to what's good for snow and what isn't! I'm tempted to just stop looking at the models until this time next week!
At the moment I'm expecting some wet weather down here this coming week with the possibility of something wintry later in the week. And that's it.
The following weekend I'll see what's going on for end of Jan
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Look what's about to head down the slide!!! Would love to see the 168 chart!!
is it? I'm not convinced, I can't see much of a "wedge" there to deflect it SE
-
1
-
-
Are we on the cusp of a special wintry period?
It's certainly starting to look that way when you look at ALL of the medium and long range models and yes, nothing is a given and even in my head I'm thinking "no it won't happen, something will scupper it, probably a short wave at the base of Greenland or something" but actually, it's starting to look a bit good isn't it.
-
Has anyone got the temps/dew temps on that channel runner when it hits? I.e. would it be all snow from the South Coast up? I know it won't happen that way but it would be nice to dream (until the 12z!)
-
Another stonking run from the GFS06! I think in a weeks time we'll have a compromise of ECM and GFS. Either way we're not seeing raging zonality which considering we're normally seeing a strong PV sitting to our north at this time of year is certainly noteworthy.
-
4
-
-
Well at least whatever happens in the next few weeks, it'll feel seasonal!
Gone will be the double digit Temps after this week and say hello to 5's and 6's as we go on towards the end of November. With just the hint of wintry stuff in the air along with cold rain, proper Autumn weather!
-
2
-
-
Yeah Gav has done a little explanation on the new ECM Seasonal: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html
-
1
-
-
That's similar to what the ECM Seasonal is showing for the winter months, lots of northerly blocking!
-
So the ECM Seasonal is out for the Winter months (apologies if it is being talked about elsewhere, I couldn't find anything) and I wonder if what it's showing is linked to the Solar minima? Constant Northerly Blocking! I guess if that's what it shows every year then we can discount it completely!
https://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html
-
3
-
-
5 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:
Are we looking at an easterly QBO this winter, or westerly?
As Steve says, looks to be in transistion, so starting off eQBO then during Jan(?) turns wQBO
-
1
-
-
A few drops of rain here in Crawley/Gatwick, that'll probably all we'll get here!
-
It's actually raining! I've forgotten what it looks like! haha! A shower developed right over Crawley in the last half hour and gradually heading north.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:
Not shure about this but does soil moisture content and recent months of soil transpiration affect surface temperatures ,dry soil hotter weather ??
Yes it does, that's what (IIRC) what caused us to have the record temps and heat (and in France) in 2003.
-
1
-
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
The storm over Horsham developed over me first, been raining a good 45 minutes, nothing particularly heavy but heard a few distant rumbles as it moved on. Nice to hear considering not in the risk zone! Wonder if it's due to orographic lift from the Downs maybe?