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Everything posted by tcc

  1. Ah Gotcha! Thanks (and to Quicksilver!) Well let's hope that there is something in this!
  2. Eh? Have I misread the article? By all accounts it is giving a high Probabilistic that we will have a lower than normal CET along with a -NAO for Jan and Feb? Obviously it's a long way out, but I'm not reading it as showing a Mild Winter? Unless I'm being woooosshed?!
  3. I think there isn't that much excitement because this winter has been abysmal for us down here with so much potential which just hasn't materialized. Even now the long term view from the Met office is for it turn colder in early Feb etc, but the Models don't appear to be picking this up, does that mean another false dawn? It could well be! As for tomorrow night the parameters needed for snowfall look to be marginal, so it's entirely possible that people will wake up Wed morning and not find any settling snow. Hopefully not because the way this winter has gone, this week could be our best chance of lying snow until next Winter. I'd take lying snow for 24 hours from this awful Winter right now! As you can tell, I'm a bit peeved about this Winter, I think it was the background signals (let alone the SSW) which peaked my interest and raised my expectations. However, to finish on a more positive note I'm hopeful that we will see some snow in Feb/March. El Nino type winters favour back end Winters for us and traditionally it seems we get our best chances later in Feb/March for snow!
  4. Yep definitely KW! Just hope it holds or gets better for us down here. Who knows could potentially end up being best chance of decent snow this winter! (Although obviously I hope not!), over the weekend it will come into the HIRES range so we can either discount it or start the countdown.
  5. My brain hurts! So many permutations and different opinions as to what's good for snow and what isn't! I'm tempted to just stop looking at the models until this time next week! At the moment I'm expecting some wet weather down here this coming week with the possibility of something wintry later in the week. And that's it. The following weekend I'll see what's going on for end of Jan
  6. is it? I'm not convinced, I can't see much of a "wedge" there to deflect it SE
  7. Are we on the cusp of a special wintry period? It's certainly starting to look that way when you look at ALL of the medium and long range models and yes, nothing is a given and even in my head I'm thinking "no it won't happen, something will scupper it, probably a short wave at the base of Greenland or something" but actually, it's starting to look a bit good isn't it.
  8. Has anyone got the temps/dew temps on that channel runner when it hits? I.e. would it be all snow from the South Coast up? I know it won't happen that way but it would be nice to dream (until the 12z!)
  9. Another stonking run from the GFS06! I think in a weeks time we'll have a compromise of ECM and GFS. Either way we're not seeing raging zonality which considering we're normally seeing a strong PV sitting to our north at this time of year is certainly noteworthy.
  10. Well at least whatever happens in the next few weeks, it'll feel seasonal! Gone will be the double digit Temps after this week and say hello to 5's and 6's as we go on towards the end of November. With just the hint of wintry stuff in the air along with cold rain, proper Autumn weather!
  11. Yeah Gav has done a little explanation on the new ECM Seasonal: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html
  12. That's similar to what the ECM Seasonal is showing for the winter months, lots of northerly blocking!
  13. So the ECM Seasonal is out for the Winter months (apologies if it is being talked about elsewhere, I couldn't find anything) and I wonder if what it's showing is linked to the Solar minima? Constant Northerly Blocking! I guess if that's what it shows every year then we can discount it completely! https://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html
  14. As Steve says, looks to be in transistion, so starting off eQBO then during Jan(?) turns wQBO
  15. A few drops of rain here in Crawley/Gatwick, that'll probably all we'll get here!
  16. It's actually raining! I've forgotten what it looks like! haha! A shower developed right over Crawley in the last half hour and gradually heading north.
  17. Yes it does, that's what (IIRC) what caused us to have the record temps and heat (and in France) in 2003.
  18. Chucking it down here in Crawley, looking very grey and murky!
  19. Apparently it's snowing in Rouen in Northern France, so cold air wrapped up down there. I wonder if that will head north to cover our region with any wintriness?
  20. Damn it! Just outside, probably be looking to my north and getting extremely jealous! haha!
  21. A lovely snowy scene here in Crawley, been pretty heavy for a good half an hour with light snow for an hour before that. Not sure how long it's due to last but a nice way for this cold spell to end!
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