Skiwi

Because the surrounding water has spent a few years now mostly ice free over the summer absorbing heat and slowing down the re-freeze process.

Yes but very short lived. Warm 850s pushing into the Alaskan side of the arctic as that cold air floods down over Canada. Surprising that with cold temps over the arctic ice growth has stagnated in the past couple of days. Anyone know why? On a positive note should see the first signs of Hudson Bay freezing in about a week.

Very interesting post thanks! Amazing air pressure anomalies for the last two months! Does any one know whether these are typical of a strong La Nina event. Im a little confused as to where people are seeing very good 850temps over the next week... looking back through the archvies seems to show this seem being rather warm with some of the least extensive cold pooling for this time of year on record... Yes there is coolish air over the basin but certainly not cold and very very warm air over Siberia, Canada and Alaska

Because over the past few hundred years (modern history) there have been many cases of strong long lasting postive PDO's but there is no evidence of the arctic being in the state it is now. Therefore, it is clear the problem is deeper than just a long lasting postitve PDO

True, but last winters warm anomaly is not isoslated. It is just an example of how warm the planet currently is. If you look back through the past 30 years you will see increasingly warm winters with the last 5-10 years exceptionally warm. Not just 2010. What has caused the increasing temperature is somewhat debatable but the warmth of the arctic is not. In my opinion weather cannot be solely blamed for the very warm temperatures we are currently experiencing but id love to be proved wrong!

Sorry for the confusion I have been reffering to the second 1. I agree the first one raises some interesting points. Right or wrong The temperature anomalies are certainly frightening. Amazing differences. In 2010 there are barely ANY cold anomalies. A sea of red!

Hi Yes i agree natural variability is a contributing factor. However, the article posts temp maps from 1917, 1936 etc (all years with blocking highs over North America displacing arctic cold. Then in 2010 with a similar blocking pattern the world (and arctic) is exceptionally warmer than in previous years with similar synoptics. So yes this suggests blocking highs over north america lead to a warmer than average arctic however the scale of warm worldwide is quite astonishing in 2010 and bears no resembalence to previous years with similar set ups. Therefore, the extreme warmth of 2010 cannot have been caused single handedly by that blocking high but instead other process are clearly contributing to the warm temps. The same processes that have lead the last few years to be the warmest on record.

Yes, an unfortunate situation indeed. How do you see the strong La Nina playing out? A cold arctic winter with reasonably high max, a late melt and much better min extent next summer as suggested by some? Or a continuation of recent years with warm arctic winters, rapid melts and the lowest ice min's on record?

Hi GW, good morning! Yes i certainly wasn't having a go at Jethro. Just stunned a meterologist would argue against large problems in the arctic by posting those graphs!!!! I agree the sea surface temps are not good. The 850 temps have been poor across the majority of the arctic for an extended period now with well above average surface temps aswell. I'm just hoping the cooler air temps will help lead to some larger gains in the next week keeping us above 09. La Nina certianly doesn't seem to be helping with a fast refreeze this autumn

The response article borders on laughable. The graphs published of global temps in 1917, 1936 and 1938 comnpared to 2010 only goes to show how warm the world is today. Similar synoptics yet look at the temperature difference. Looking at his graphs only reinforces the poor state of the arctic today. On a brighter note, conditions for ice growth are looking much more favourable over the next week especailly on the asian side of the arctic which shold stop us from falling below 2009's levels. However, growth on the North American side of the arctic looks to be very slow with well above average temps continuing for the forseeable future.

Thats alright mate. No problem Yea i couldn't agree more. amazingly fast increase over the last few days. Looks unlikely to continue unfortunatley with warm air moving over the Barents sea in the next fews days. Nonetheless, the last few days have been very positive. A couple more days of strong increases and things will be looking much much better! Lets hope it continues!

When i wrote my post the ice extent was infact the lowest on record(Sorry for not stating 'since records began' i thought that was obvious). It is sad that you feel the need to take a serious comment about the state of the artic ice extent and take the mickey out of it. You are more than entitled to disagree but taking cracks at people isn't beneficial On a different note, it is great to see strong increases in the ice extent continue for the last few days. A few more days of strong gains and we will be approaching the short term averages

I don't see where your coming from. Yes with any luck things will improve over the next few weeks but surely you cannot argue that ice extent as it stands today is anything but dire. To do so would be very naive remembering we currently have the LOWEST ice extent EVER for this time of year. It is hard to find any positives in that

Very pleasing to see a large increase in ice extent of approx 150,000km over the last day. Hopefully ice extent will continue to increase quickly over the next week bringing us back towards the short term averages

What the heck is going on in the artic basin? ijis suggesting the ice extent decreased over the last day?? surely not at this time of year and with so little ice currently in the basin. admittedly it is warm in the barents sea but you would think the cold pooling in the east siberian sea and chuckchi sea would easily offset any small loss in this area?? any thoughts on the cause of this and prospects for ice growth?