Mark Bayley
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Posts posted by Mark Bayley
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Snow accumulation from the Euro4
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3 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:
Ta dah!
I probably won't be up north to experience it but positive for you guys.
I have also ended up 'down south', although find myself in Sheffield this weekend. Very tempted to go back Monday rather than Sunday evening! Some back edge snow on Monday, though (London)!
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2 minutes ago, sausage said:
wow just goes to show the met are clueless at many a time. have you just seen the massive downgrade in the further outlook posted by them just as yesterday they were saying cold and snow until mid jan. wow what a flip. i wonder what weve lost thats changed that?? any ideas?
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UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Dec 2017 to Saturday 6 Jan 2018:
During the early part of this period we are likely to see a transition from spells of wet and windy weather moving across the UK towards more benign weather becoming established. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier conditions and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably be below average overall.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcrp54pyc
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2 minutes ago, inghams85 said:
Without a doubt yes but still time for a small 50 mile shift to bring this back to the north Midlands. Well know by 0z tomorrow morning i would say
Yes, that is always a risk. I don't expect any significant changes however. At worse North and west Yorkshire may miss the 'worst' of it, but those further south should see decent event, unless there is a significant track further south.
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Just now, inghams85 said:
This is shaping up to be 15cm -20cm quite easily for South Yorkshire. We got 10cm from a front March 2013 nowhere near as active or prolonged as this
Indeed, Rotherham is well placed!
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Another model, another slight shift north. Cracking for South Yorkshire with other areas joining in on the 'games'
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Final one from me
Models suggest snow showers from tomorrow afternoon and evening - only a dusting though
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For what its worth the GEM is also further north, albeit slightly..
24 hours of snow for South Yorkshire, so 10-20cm won't be surprising. Several CM's for West and North and parts of East Yorkshire.
Again, this can and will shift
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GFS 12z ever so slightly better for those further north
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11 minutes ago, Craigers said:
The met have upgraded snow for south Yorkshire again. 6am till 12pm!
Yes - awaiting the 12zs with interest!
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3 minutes ago, Southender said:
Would love to know how that NMM PPN chart comes to the conclusion the likes of the IOW will be under 10mm p/h PPN rates of SNOW with DP's around 3-4c.
Dewpoints are generally between 0 and 1c, and heavier precipitation will bring that down a little.
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In all seriousness, highlights how marginal it is. Will be a fine line between getting pasted and seeing sleet / cold rain, further north and west you are the better (thats if you see any precipitation!)
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26 minutes ago, inghams85 said:
It's just the timing. The front is slower coming in will show it over us an hour or two later
Not really, however i don't think it will move to much now. My punt is for South Yorkshire to fare best (several cms), but the Midlands the sweet spot. It will be a case of radar watching on the day!
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Again, just to emphasise the risk of further southerly corrections.
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I'll be travelling back to Harrow from the north midlands on Sunday evening, so with any luck i'll get to see two snow events (that's if the trains are running Sunday evening..)
GFS is very marginal for Monday, and certainly for my area (Harrow) i can see heavy sleet at best (GFS), although those in the home counties could get a real pasting. To note that the ECM has the precipitation further south, although snow restricted to higher ground
The ARPEGE has the precipitation clipping Kent - lots of changes to come!
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Marginal for Monday, however those on the northern edge of that low will get an absolute pasting if the 6z comes off!
Some agreement from the ECM too, although further south
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/england/snow-depth-in/20171211-1800z.html
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Sunday 10am or 1pm snap shot for all the models (bar UKMO). Heaviest precipitation reaching South Yorkshire, still a chance for a good covering further north. I would expect some southward corrections, however.
WRF NMM, ARPEGE, GFS, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, ECM
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/england/acc-total-precipitation/20171211-1200z.html
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Just now, LeeSnowFan said:
Picture is blank?
See the link, these charts are a bit funny!
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40 minutes ago, Craigers said:
Leeds now has more of the heavier snow on forecast so looks like the met have moved it north.
Although note the Yorkshire forecast has accumulations possible, whereas the Midlands forecast says significant accumulations likely. We await the 6z and updated warning. I think they are going with the ECM solution, which pastes the north and west Midlands. South Yorkshire sees the action a well.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/england/acc-total-precipitation/20171211-1200z.html
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Dusting of snow already. Radar suggests a decent covering by the morning!
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13 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:
Nothing here yet but you never know later. May get a covering overnight
As you can see on the left ive now moved away from western Sheffield and moved to Rotherham as moved in with my partner. I hated losing the altitude but the last few winters were so crap i didnt think id be missing much haha! Hopefully ive jinxed it good for us all because its looking great for Sunday so far
BBC currently showing 24 hours of snow for Sheffield:
That's annoying! I remember some good events when i was living in Ranmoor, when here got sleet. Still, i am similar altitude to you and generally do well!
Temperature dropping here, so hopefully those showers will fall as snow.
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23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
But it couldn’t really go anywhere near the scottish borders? No model has shown this over the past 48 hours. Can’t see the low centre tracking se much north of Carlisle and the probability is strong it will be heading into n Ireland and then disrupting se towards se england - the cone widens as it leaves n Ireland to be somewhere between Lincolnshire and Cornwall imo
i am thinking Carlisle isn’t far from the Scottish Borders but as the system slides se it doesn’t have enough easterly momentum to go ne at all.
Tbf the JMA does - although not exactly a beacon of reliability
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Perhaps a cm or two tomorrow morning..?
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1 minute ago, terrier said:
Not been funny but the met at the moment will be covering all bases till this track is nailed down. We could still easily miss out if it tracks further south. So until Saturdays 12z runs I will remain very cautious regarding any significant snowfall for our region.
Indeed, and as noted in the model thread, the ARPEGE also looks to be tracking further south, although doesn't go past T72
There will be numerous changes in track and intensity over the coming days. As per my previous post, i'd plump for somewhere in the Midlands faring best!
Or perhaps just the Scottish mountains
Good job its rubbish
BBC currently showing 24 hours of snow for Sheffield:
Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Mark Bayley
ECM further south, although still has decent accumulations for South Yorkshire
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120812/england/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20171210-2100z.html