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jcw

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  1. As charts stand, based on GFS dew points and my own read of them, I'd be very surprised to see snow at low level along East coast and across NI. Definitely making for interesting forecasts and model watching... Still much to learn from this situation and I'll be watching how it pans out for sure.
  2. Agreed. No snow; more rain. Dew points look no lower than 4c at best. Any "battle" is the other side of the Irish sea.
  3. Yah, it's good...but not quite Carlsberg I'd prefer to see a spike here
  4. Small observation and for my own sake and understanding (or misunderstanding as case may be) isn't that chart showing the isoline that's in Scandi traces BACK to England? That's a weak anticyclonic feature going clockwise from a view of the wider chart? JC
  5. Pedant time...Ireland IS part of the British Isles. Maybe you meant Great Britain? I like the idea of an early to mid-March over western British Isles, at least. While I love the thought of a snowy day, once we are into March, I'm more inclined to favour the advent of milder Spring temperatures than belated cold and snow. J.
  6. Looks to me, based on those charts, as if much hinges on T+150 and that that shortwave development (or not). As others say, thereafter the changes are notable from what we've seen on the 06z.
  7. Well if that's you what you infer from that forecast while I infer that average weather is very likely, why not leave it like that, i.e. for people to infer for themselves what they want from the forecast? You're happy; I'm happy...ish...! It's weather.....almost unpredictable!! joe
  8. Maybe they do have a clue...and it's to BE average? You can't expect Met Office to come out with "committed" forecasts like Madden (who should be committed) and forecast one extreme or another when the signals just aren't there...yet anyway? They can surely only go on what the models are showing which, at this time, must only be average conditions until something changes that viewpoint. As they say "no strong signal in weather patterns" but hopefully that will change soon enough for them to be more 'certain' if you can ever be certain about a weather forecast over a 15-30 day period!! Joe
  9. "Damning verdict of Chion..."??? I don't see that, Hocus and if that's the rash reply you refer back to maybe just delete it? Otherwise, what BFTV suggests about seeing stats.."to see the stats that show they are consistently wrong. I mean in an objective manner, and not a select few seasons" is very reasonable. You use one season, last year, as an example. A single sample, or two or even three, is hardly "consistently wrong". I'd have more faith in a forecaster with a 70-80% success rate base on probability forecasts than a self-professed claim of 80% by people like Ken Ring (New Zealand forecaster) or by James Madden and his inExacta rubbish.. Anyway, Steve is putting forward a strong argument for a cold winter forecast. The Met Office, on current factors, don't see it as the form horse..as they say. Let's wait for the season to actually happen before taking anyone to task about winter. It will be what it is and Steve, Uk Met Office, Joe B*stardi, Madden, Powell, Corbyn, et al, can't influence outcome. I hope as much effort goes into re-analysis when all is said and done that any lesson to be learned can be learned... J.
  10. Don't shoot the messenger but one of the scientists, currently in Iceland and who has a twitter feed, remarked last night that they do not hold Jon in high regard from a scientific standpoint. That does not mean Jon is not right but neither does it mean his word should be taken before qualified scientists. Maybe they will become more worried themselves and issue a greater level of alarm but for now they are holding fire.... It's fascinating and potentially worrying nonetheless. Joe
  11. Indeed, this could be interesting. This close-up graphic showing the activity well... http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/ Joe
  12. Karyo, a full blown Katla eruption is not something to wish for at ANY time. Have a read of Katla impacts from the past and you might just settle for a natural evolution of winter rather than the influence of Katla which has the potential to be a lot more devastating than "blocking sunlight"! Joe
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