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Dorsetbred

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Posts posted by Dorsetbred

  1. Sunday 1 Aug - Tuesday 10 Aug
    Changeable conditions continuing to dominate for the start of August, with a mixture of sunny and dry periods, showery periods and the chance of longer spells of rain. At first the south is likely to see the most showers, with the north remaining the driest, but by the end of the period the south and southeast will possibly be the driest and the west and northwest the wettest. There remains a chance for any showers or rain to produce thunderstorms. Temperatures are most likely cooler than average for this time of year, trending to slightly cooler than average or average through the period, with the south and southwest having the best chance of seeing average temperatures.

    Wednesday 11 Aug - Wednesday 25 Aug
    As is typical for this time of year, confidence is low for this period. However, there is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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  2. 1 hour ago, jtay said:

    Paul S just pinged this through from Torro...

    2021/024

    Convective Discussion–

    15:36 BST Sat 24 Jul 2021 – 22:00 BST Sat 24 Jul 2021

    Areas affected

    Parts of southern England

    Parts of SW England

    Parts of S Wales

    Hazards

    Isolated brief tornadoes

    Heavy rain

    CG lightning

    Gusty winds

    Discussion

    Cloud is breaking to allow spells of sunshine to develop across southern Britain. This should allow several hundred J/Kg of CAPE to develop, perhaps 700-800 J/Kg in a few places. One or more low-level convergence zones should develop, mainly due to sea breeze boundaries. With low cloud bases and decent low-level convergence, any showers or thunderstorms which develop along or close to these boundaries will have a chance of producing a few funnel clouds, and perhaps one or two brief/weak tornadoes.

    Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will be possible, with a few thunderstorms possible too bringing CG lightning.

    Activity should wane through the evening.

    TORROsocialmedia.png
    WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK

    TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland

     

     

    All inland I suspect...and to a lesser degree than suggested as the heat disappates rapidly from the day..

  3. Very different view to last weekend, after early morning mist has risen, and light patchy rain seems the order, but little like has been forecast with suggestions of up to a 100mm in places, not yet... and I suspect storms this afternoon will be land based rather than feeding in off the channel.

    image.thumb.png.8971be74d9055647cb8815dc45e65a18.png

    Rainfall over 24hours pans out like this

    Stations:Precipitation

    MoD Boscombe Down 25.0 mm

    Middle Wallop 25.0 mm

    Isle of Portland 19.0 mm

    Larkhill 18.0 mm

    Bournemouth 12.0 mm

    • Like 1
  4. The local rag is on a roll...

    HEAVY rain, thunder and hail is being forecast for the weekend in Dorset.

    The Met Office has warned of potential flooding and transport disruption, with 100mm of rainfall predicted in some areas of the county.

    It comes after the county has basked in a heatwave, with temperatures soaring into the high 20s, which is expected to continue until Friday evening.

    A yellow weather warning has been put in place from 00.01am on Saturday until 11.59pm on Sunday.☂️

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