ScandiHigh

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute(met.no) uses the WMO recommended reference periods, e.g. 1931-60, 1961-90, etc. The Svalbard normal for May is indeed below 0, as others have said. People who follow the Svalbard temperatures will notice that a below average month is a rarity these days. September 2005 was the last below average month at the Airport. More Svalbard observations: http://retro.met.no/observasjoner/svalbard/index.html

Question to the experts: Pockets of -10 Upper air starting to appear in the Arctic in the coming weekend (eg. East Siberian coast). Below zero surface temperatures are forecasted(GFS). Can we hope for an end to the rapid decline in ice cover and eventually an increase?

Why, I thought this setup favoured a negative NAO?

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Early indications for Winter 2007/8 (December, January and February) Temperature Last winter was exceptionally warm over much of Europe and the second warmest on record for the UK. The signal from the statistical method suggests winter 2007/8 is likely to be less mild for Europe as a whole than 2006/7. For western Europe, including the UK, indications favour temperatures less mild than last year, but still above the 1971-2000 normal. Rainfall Above-normal precipitation was experienced over the UK last winter with 130% of the long-term UK average. Early indications suggest that Winter 2007/8 is likely to be closer to normal. --- Very disappointing IMO.

Yes, very concerning development the last couple of weeks. Perhaps some kind of comfort in the fact that there is still a bit more ice in the Barent Sea than last year. The Russian and Candian sectors, however, are significantly worse off than last year.

This is very interesting indeed. It seems like the increased sea ice concentration has put an end (for now) to the record breaking warmth at Svalbard. In fact april this year, although above the 61-90 mean, was 9,4 C colder than last april. april this year was effectively the coldest month of the winter.

History repeating itself? After a promising October, it seems like Svalbard is back to the "normal" of the last couple of years (which is certainly not normal): http://met.no/observasjoner/svalbard/Svalb...havn/index.html This is not good news for ice formation in the Barent Sea.

Further to this, this ECMWF map http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/cat...33;latest!/ shows that the SSts to west of Svalbard are actually well below normal. (despite being 4-5 C)

I think you are right. More ice than last year in the Barents sea. Last year must have been a record low, however.

The SSTs to the West of Svalbard is around 4 C and preventning the sea ice to penetrate further south: http://met.no/images/image_000128_1161266490.png Even along the north coast SSTs are way above freezing. Seems like we need more of those cold northerlies to cool down the barent ocean. To the east, however, SSTs are much more favourable for sea ice formation (around 0 and in some places less than 0 C).

Great report Carinthian. Re my question last week, I think you were spot on when predicting landfall of sea ice at Svalbard norhtern coastline this week. According to the Cryosphere site it happened during the last five days. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/20060922.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/20060927.jpg My impression is that the Norhtern Barent area is ahead of last year, especially to the Northeast of Svalbard, around Franz Josef Land: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/20050927.jpg Regards Scandi

Some questions for the experts here: 1) Why is there still ice melt in the Arctic basin? (ref: Crysosphere today). I thought ice levels would start to pick up here by now. Some of the russian sectors have picked up recently, but not the arctic basin it seems. 2) By this time last year the Northern flank og Svalbard was locked in ice. Later in the season, however, the northern coast of Svalbard was ice-free. The question is, do you think Svalbard will be ice free this winter as well. My observation is that the northerlies the last couple of days have not moved the ice closer to Svalbard. I suspect the SST is to high for ice forming here? 3) A general question and perhaps difficult to answer is the link between NW Europe winter Temperature and arctic sea ice extent. Finally, have a look at this map http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/19790116.png It is amazing how much ice it was that winter. The question is will we ever see such extent (in our lifetime). Thanks.

This is also interesting: Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service at the Met Office commented: "In July, we issued a first assessment of the winter. This was based on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) technique and indicated a mild winter. However, from September, other forecast data becomes available, allowing us to make a further expert judgement on how the winter is likely to play out. It's interesting to note that the chances of a colder winter have increased slightly in light of recent information, with a focus on the late-winter period. We will track this possible trend and update the forecast in coming months as necessary."

I think it is interesting that they have changed from mild to normal, and that they single out the late winter season with a signal for lower temperatures and increase in cold snaps! The European precipiation map suggests that depressions may have a southerly track this winter, that is a good sign.