snowbunting

I did find it slightly amusing jumping from the excitement and ramping of the 18z to the doom and gloom of the 0z models in the runs this morning whilst reading posts I missed whilst sleeping. Anyway the GFS and ECM still continue with the blocked atlantic pattern with high pressure which is always a good place to start for snow lovers. Although away out in lala land that 2nd/3rd northerly (Ive lost count)... is still on the table. Look at the -10 sitting just off the North coast of Scotland. This may very well become the pattern for the whole winter. The AO is forecast to plummet... any sign of the polar vortex forming as we plunge into the first month of winter. Even as it does the chances are it eill be blasted away with a SSW event. Still very early days. Whilst the models play around teasing us... my gut instinct says cold. Hooefully what I have said makes sense, Im still learning!

What an end to the ECM... deep fast developing low dragging down colder air. Imagine if it waters down that scenario? Model run after model run showing cold outbreaks.

PS... our croft two days ago.. snow not quite all melted yet and we live on the gulfstream ( supposedly).

Does anyone know when the netweather winter forecast is due to be released? From what Ive experienced of this autumn so far... I think winter will be front loaded... mild Jan and then cold again for early spring. One cannot ignore the high pressure? Blocking patterns over the mid atlantic nor the Greenie High. Nlys defo... easterlies I dont think so. Sustained cold I think yes. Mild wet and windy.. I dont think so. Colder more settled the form horse this winter.

Does anyone know when the netweather winter forecast is due to be issued. It went live this time last year.

They wait and hope that the sheep will leave a little of their feed... lol. The blackface is called Bella... she is always the leader.

Its the heights over Greenland that are truelly astonishing. Promising lots of Nly outbreaks. One of these is going to create fun and games.

Our wintry scene on our croft on Lewis. Its been a very early start to the winter here with butterly cold NWlys the past week or so. We have had thunder and lightning too as well as graupel, hail and ice. I get a feeling it is just a taster of whats to come. Even the locals cant remember it starting quite as early as this. Its usually Feb before it gets really cold here. 2010, 79, 81, 95... dare I say it 63.... its well overdue and I suppose conditions are near perfect for a cold un!

Was based on the GFS and I did say if it was to be believed eith a question mark.

Good agreement in the models for next weekend especially after all of the chopping and changing over the past 48hrs or so. Looks like that nasty low will drag down much colder weather from north. How far it comes south is anyones guess at this moment. I do like the reload on the GFS on the 0z run. I can imagine this one materialising. Interesting to see where it goes. Mild December on the cards if te GFS is to be believed. Perhaps just the model returning to its default setting? Icant wait for the Netweather winter forecast. One other question... how many of you are professional meterologists?

Good morning! Well GFS does it again... picks up a cold signal 10days out... dramatically drops it for warmish atlantic onslaught... and then brings the colder air back in again in a slightly more reliable timeframe. It is a cool NWly wintry showers for the western isles. BTW we have already had wet snow falling at sea level on thursday morning in Stornoway. So the atlantic isnt that mild!!!

I still cant buy into an atlantic onslaught with such a huge area of greenie high. It is like the GFS has a light switch between stalling cyclonic conditions in the atlantic and then suddenly they evolve and move in eastwards over uk before turning westwards again. I just cant see that happening. This will be a good test for the models. Might be worth analysing which one was closer by this time next week. I imagine it will be ECM. Longer term synoptics and teleconnections look good for winter... if you like snow.

Ok, the pub run wasnt alone last night whilst out on the rang dang. Looks like it finished up in the night club dancing with 0z! In all honesty the NAO ensembles support such a development. Most going negative. 2010 anyone?indeed the ensembles for Western Isles is remarkable within that 7day time frame with GFS ops and GEFS showing a significant downward cooling trend. Might not teach the South but I think the North eill be chilly by next weekend.

Hmmm. Think the pub tun is on the rang dang. North looks cold on this one with Greenie high controlling North Atlantic.

I just get a feeling those heights are being overplayed by the models. Why would the models underplay a Greenie High and overplay a Euro high? Other than struggling with la nina influences. Perhaps the 0z run of gfs has cottoned onto this and is making that nly outbreak creep ever southwards? What I have noticed is a disjointed atlantic influence and a split polar vortex. Time will tell. These next few runs are going to be very interesting.

I am struggling to buy into the monster low in the atlantic being able to push back a Greenie High on the 0z run of the GFS. I just cant believe a weak jet would do that. Glad it is out of the 7day range. As has been mentioned before I think the models are struggling a bit with pretty unique climatic conditions. Gut feeling... the ECM has found a trend. Lets hope it doesnt backtrack!

I remember the gfs in 2009 picking up the cold signal out in Fl only to drop it and then come back with the signal at 7 days out... it wasnt wrong either! Seems 2017 might be a reapeat. It dropped the signal for a second cold plunge next weekend in favour of something more Zonal... weather bomb... storm. For this on the 12z run. I wonder if it will stick to this.

The battle of the models begins. At time 240hrs ECM going for high pressure. The GFS going for a Nly lasting days Both suggesting a greenie high building. So which one will be right?

Can anyone remember when the cold signal started to appear on the Nov 2010 models? I remember going for a walk in Sleat, Skye early Nov thinking the switch between autumn/winter had turned really quickly. A bit like this year. I know many are still thinking it will turn to atlantic onslaught but looking at these models they all seem to be singing from a similar hymm sheet.

I am certainly more hopeful and confident of a colder winter. Who wouldnt be with an Easterly QBO and heading towards a solar minimum. No sign of the dreaded Euro high either! Think our colder weather will almost certainly come from the North. It will be brief and disappear again before returning. Reminds me of winter 83/84, but also 90/91. Winters Coming !!!!

Looked at both the GFS and ECM charts this morning. No surprises or massive changes from yesterdays runs. First thought is that the GFS is continuing with its cool NW ly flow hence a negative NAO trend. The high pressure in the atlantic is tempering any affect of the jetsream as is twists up and down over UK and Europe. The Ensembles for my area show the mild followed by colder excursions in the coming days too. In some respects the ECM follows that NWLy trend but with a huge area of Hugh pressure over Europe and much lower pressure over Greenland by +200hrs. Synoptics look promising for a mixed bag of everything the next 2 weeks and I think the models are taking time to adjust to the effect a warmer arctic.

Do you know what the actual date of this was?

Yes saw that cyclonegenesis espisode on the GFS 0z chart this morning. Given conditions in the atlantic I find it hard to believe it will happen. Last year or year before yes. Whats interesting is the creeping of colder NWly and Nly polar maritime air closer to our shores and into a more reliable timeframe.

The 0zlooks more NW ly to me than SWly. Certainly not mild for this time of year. Not convinced it will be a mild Nov with the azores high constantly ridging either towards us or northwards in the atlantic. Its pushing the jetstream up and then down picking up cooler temps. I know its a long way out but look at the low pressure over iceland would suggest a positive NAO but its taking in much colder air from Greenland and Canada hence dragging cooler NWly flow towards uk. I am reading alot of mild ramping this winter. But it isnt the same winter as last year or the previous years. We have a Easterly QBO and a la nina. So expect something more early 90s.

Im seeing that. A strong Nly. Chilly regardless of what type of precipitation falls from the sky.