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snowbunting

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Everything posted by snowbunting

  1. snowbunting
    Most of the ensembles are going for a more Nly track for that storm on Thursday. It is still a long way off, but the storm Caroline was also due centre over North England in this timescale but ended up just north of mainland Scotland. But it is just one model/ and 1 run so if we see ALL of the GFS runs doing the same tomorrow, anywhere north of Yorkshire will get a lot of snow. I would love to know Tamara's thoughts on this cold spell and for the rest of January.
  2. snowbunting
    Which then in turn has ramifications for the UK as it gets plunged again into the North side of atlantic jet
  3. snowbunting
    Sorry was thinking about us on Scotland if it tracks further north. Not only would we get the snow but if it tracks slightly further north it will also bring very strong winds. However, looking at the models it looks very likely it will take a more Sly track and introduce a direct Nly to us by the end of the week.
  4. snowbunting
    I think this just highlights the uncertainty of the strength and direction of that low. One to watch very clisely as it makes landfall. If it tracks further north that will almost certainly bring blizzards around next thursday.
  5. snowbunting
    Wow... stunning cold runs on the GFS today. Looks like it will be more than just a cold snap with snow potential for 7 to 10 days.
  6. snowbunting
    Well well well. The GFS is producing some pretty wintry scenarios next week for some parts. Good agreement on the ensembles until the 21st. Looks like that powerful jet will dive southwards past the Uk (thankfully).. and in doing so displaces the High pressure over East Europe Northwards. Creating blocking to pur North and an invitation for some very cold weather. I totally agree with some comments about longer range developments... feb could be very wintry.
  7. snowbunting
    This just gets more intriguing every morning. Looks like NWly flow will prevail.. bringing a cooling trend for by day 7 to 10. Snow defo possible yo NW and higher ground western parts start of next week. However, afterthat it looks like a bit of a battle between east v west... it really depends on how far the scandi block manages to progress westwards. Could be significant snowfall events for those further South as that colder air hits atlantic fronts. Also watching that SSW event on Fl as this could change everything.
  8. snowbunting
    Ensembles suggesting a cool down next few weeks... NWly flow.. cool/cold polar maritime airflow. No beast from the east (yet).
  9. snowbunting
    Really quite interesting models... not much agreement past 5days and the spread of the GEFS ensembles say it all in terms of pressure for the UK. GFS 0z has the High over us sink SE wards towards Greece and Turkey by T192 , the ECM has it migrating in the opposite direction to form an area of high pressure with the greenie high to the north of us. Just wondering if the low 956mb to the north of us will verify.. I suspect not. If we get a mixture of the models, we might have fun and games with high pressure of Scandanvia meeting the atlantic onslaught. Interesting times ahead.
  10. snowbunting
    Im not so sure about that. We have had 3snow events this winter so far bringing more snow in each event than we normally have as a total of each winter. Charts are indicate that the extreme cold of the US will leave its shores and be displaced over Europe. Beasts from the easts are not the only direction that brings extreme cold snd snow. For me this model watching has been fascinating with a lively atlantic been tempered by a wobbly jetstream. We will get st least one severe cold spell.
  11. snowbunting
    It appears the GFS can hold its head a little bit higher this morning. Not surprising as it looks like that very deep cold in the US is driving everything at the moment. An easterly at this point would always be a bit of a mumdane affair given the temps in Europe. I would say enjoy the cold crisp weather the next few days and then start praying for some SSW event to displace the cold more towards Europe!
  12. snowbunting
    Another really cold and wintry spell on the cards for the far north of the UK.. GFS/ECM putting out a 516damline with a -11 850hpa... that is bitterly cold. Snow expected again as it crosses the north sea. Astoundingly bitterly cold winter at times for us. Very unsual.
  13. snowbunting
    All charts lead to cold and some snowshowers by the weekend..again... We live in one of the mildest parts of the UK.. (chuckle)... so far we have had three significant snow events.. Nov and 2 in december. Locals are calling this a harsh winter. Loads of frosts and ice. The synoptics are modelling a rather unusal scenario with high pressure to the North near swalbvard. The jetstream is waving and meandering about like crazy even with a huge area of cold over the US. This isnt a normal mild winter.
  14. snowbunting
    I have no idea what most of what you are saying actually means but that is not as important as wishing you a very happy and healthy 2018.
  15. snowbunting
    Could turn very cold and dry over scotland with a blocking area of high pressure to the north hapoening... repeat of Jan 2004 perhaps?
  16. snowbunting
    Agreed Steve... the fear from the easterly shown in previous models was that it was orginating from a rather unseasonably mild Russia. However the air in the 12z orginates from a much colder direction that is then forced around the high. Exciting times ahead and a very interesting January coming up.
  17. snowbunting
    12z shows less infilling of that low on the 5th Jan... trend is our friend.
  18. snowbunting
    Good morning. Model watching is fascinating. Just a few thoughts on the 0z run this morning. I have to admit I groaned very loudly when I saw the charts this morning with that atlantic low refusing to budge over the Uk and sending our chances of a cold spell from the NE down the pan with it. However, looking at the Sea level pressure chart, the synoptics dont look so bad with a strong atlantic ridge to our west, a green high and a tentative area of high pressure to the north. The other thing note worthy is no sign of a euro high. So why on earth would that area of low pressure infill over the Uk... look at the jetstream expect a big change...
  19. snowbunting
    It did yes TEITs, and I agree with your sentiments. Their is nothing that I can see in tbe models to suggest blocking/high pressure to our east that eould bring us cold wintry weather. I think it will all come from the NW and North.
  20. snowbunting
    -10 values are a rarity on the UK and are usually associated with a direct Nly blast or beast from the East
  21. snowbunting
    Not convinced!
  22. snowbunting
    The PV looks like it will finally leave the eastern seaboard of the USA if the ECM is to be believed from about day 7 to 10. Big change in the synoptics on the way.
  23. snowbunting
    Think these images say it all. It really is winter on a knife edge. The charts keep things very unsettled with a strong NWly output theme remaining strong.
  24. snowbunting
    I am confused. This was a tweet from him last Friday. About height gains etc etc. Now 7days on he is suggesting a return of the Polar Vortex... I thought that we need a strong PV to get the best effect from a SSW... just like Jan 2013?
  25. snowbunting
    The GFS is sending out some very interesting solutions for around Christmas day. Not saying snow but not really saying mild either. Tiny adjustments in models making a huge difference in output. Will be really interesting to see how this one evolves with 8 days to go.
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