Scorcher

Downburst Given the ECM was showing widespread rain and showers for parts of England for today only a few days ago, I don't think we should be trusting those precipitation charts for next week.

Alderc 2.0 No mention of the fact that the op is very much on the lower end of the ensembles for early next week? In terms of pressure anyway. If it ends up being further south west as was shown yesterday evening, it will make all the difference. There is still scope for that to happen. In any case it's not back to square one as someone has suggested in here- it's not exactly an Atlantic onslaught. We could well still have E/SE winds next week which is unlikely to mean constant rain for the west side of the country at least.

Alderc 2.0 Or Manchester for that matter!

cheese Sydney has had a rainy few years. It was only a year or two ago that they had their wettest year on record. It was 2022- they had 2530mm of rain in the year.

Big overreaction from some this morning. The positioning of the low is still changing from run to run so no point jumping to conclusions yet. Only yesterday it was being shown as further to our south west which would allow warmth to continue albeit much more unsettled.

Apart from June, 1993 seems like a poor summer to me. I was very young at the time so have no recollection of it. I could never be happy with a 14.6C August. It's hard to fathom a summer month that cool in today's climate. Even the poor months tend to reach 16C now. At Manchester Airport the temperature didn't reach 23C after June 30th. The highest temperature in July and August was 22.7C on August 31st. A shocking lack of warm days.

reef Must be a good chance of beating 13.5C looking at the model output tonight. You'd have thought we'll be well above that by the middle of next week. I always consider the last week or so of May to be one of the most reliable periods of the year as well for warm, settled weather so we would have a chance of a notably high figure.

WYorksWeather Really impressive to see such high temperatures widely across the country over the weekend. It's not too often we reach 25C before the 2nd half of May here.

The consensus from the op runs tonight is warm pretty much all the way next week but not as settled from Monday onwards. I think the chances of an immediate breakdown to much cooler conditions are diminishing now. The kind of week the ECM is showing next week would really boost the CET as minima would be very high for the time of year.

Neilsouth Even though it hasn't been blazing sunshine so far, it has been a 'warm' start to the month relative to average. And that is about to be turned up a notch over the next few days.

We missed a great opportunity in 2008 to beat 1833 and certainly to record a 14C+ May. Seems like there may be another opportunity this year- especially if the latest GFS run is anything to go by.

WYorksWeather Wow the ECM was truly shocking for today- miles too low in this area too. Perhaps because it overcooked the precipitation in some areas? It's stayed completely dry here today despite the Met Office and others saying rain was almost certain this afternoon. I too have noticed how accurate the UKV has been with the surface temps recently so I will be putting my trust in it more from now on.

LetItSnow! The fax charts are clear though and I find them a good indicator of whether there will be weather fronts at play. And the Met Office definitely aren't on board with the GFS this morning. Looks great from midweek onwards on my local forecast.

The Met Office website (notoriously Conservative with temperatures a few days out) is showing 22C for this area on Friday, meanwhile the GFS comes up with this: Comical really in that setup. Something has to give.

Alderc 2.0 The GFS has really flipped this morning in terms of its temperature predictions at the surface for Wednesday to Friday- seems quite strange to me to be honest. It's showing max temps 2 or 3C lower here than it was yesterday which seems odd as not a lot has changed on the pressure charts for midweek onwards. Looking at the Fax charts for the week ahead the UK is pretty much clear of weather fronts all week (apart from northern Scotland at times).